GAA ODDS

[Louth Exile]

Just had a quick look around some of the sites and in the all ireland bettting there is a massive difference between Cork & Kerry (12/1 v 2/1) How can there be such a difference in the betting when there was little between them yesterday??

Cork have to play an extra match v one of the qualifier teams, ( Mayo ?, Armagh, Donegal ? ) and then a quarter Final v a provincial winner where as Kerry will be able to avoid Dublin, Galway and Tyrone until the semis all going according to plan. Adding in the fact that if they were to play again Kerry would be around 3 pt favourites.

I acknowledge that bombdial, I still think it is a massive difference in price for the two teams, some would say that Cork were unlucky last Sunday!

[armaghniac]

Bookies don't need to offer a good price on Kerry and Dublin, they'll always get money on those. You'll always get better value in the other teams. If you think Cork is good value then pile on.

[Smokin Joe]

Bombidal, is there any reason in particular why you skillfully managed to avoid Lone Shark's thread the other week?

Nothing to be embarrased about I'm sure?

[bombidal]

Nothing at all to be embarrased about. I don't / didn't  feel the need to comment on the topic here of all places.  The matter is well in the past.

[The Real SlimShady]

Just had a quick look around some of the sites and in the all ireland bettting there is a massive difference between Cork & Kerry (12/1 v 2/1) How can there be such a difference in the betting when there was little between them yesterday??

Cork have to play an extra match v one of the qualifier teams, ( Mayo ?, Armagh, Donegal ? ) and then a quarter Final v a provincial winner where as Kerry will be able to avoid Dublin, Galway and Tyrone until the semis all going according to plan. Adding in the fact that if they were to play again Kerry would be around 3 pt favourites.

I acknowledge that bombdial, I still think it is a massive difference in price for the two teams, some would say that Cork were unlucky last Sunday!

and some would say Kerry is the Kingdom and win All Irelands for fun!

if Cork had beaten Kerry I'd say the betting would have been even between the 2.

[Smokin Joe]

Nothing at all to be embarrased about. I don't / didn't  feel the need to comment on the topic here of all places.  The matter is well in the past.

So as a punter how do I know that the next time I place a bet with Powers and it is OKed by the trader that you aren't going to welch like you did on LS?
It's different to trying to sneak through an out of date price on a coupon past the cashier.  It was apparently rang into your traders ffs. 
What more was he supposed to do to assure himself that he had a bet at the price he was told he could have?

I think it's fierce bad form, and your absence from the thread in question spoke volumes IMO.

[bombidal]

To be honest I don't care what you think.

[Smokin Joe]

To be honest I don't care what you think.

Excellent, we have an admission from the PR machine that is Paddy Powers that they don't care what a decent customer of theirs thinks?

I think you must have missed the classes that your marketing department went on the past few years

[Bogball XV]

Nothing at all to be embarrased about. I don't / didn't  feel the need to comment on the topic here of all places.  The matter is well in the past.

Surely, here is exactly where you should comment on it - we had a 4 page discussion on it - i felt it was awfully one-sided, almost unfairly so - so this is your chance to explain the extenuating circumstances that only PP are party to, and finally put the matter to bed.

[joemamas]

and while you are at it, could you explain why PP among others have a handicap draw in gaa games, whereas in other sports such as most all american sports, you get your money back if the handicap is the exact score.

i doubt this is specif to pp, if there are some bookmakers who do not play this game let me know. It ultimately decrease the odds for the punter, as a 3pt handicap is actually 4pt, etc, . Why not use 1/2pts.

[Bogball XV]

and while you are at it, could you explain why PP among others have a handicap draw in gaa games, whereas in other sports such as most all american sports, you get your money back if the handicap is the exact score.

i doubt this is specif to pp, if there are some bookmakers who do not play this game let me know. It ultimately decrease the odds for the punter, as a 3pt handicap is actually 4pt, etc, . Why not use 1/2pts.

I think you just answered your question!!
Ladbrokes used to do the half odds, but changed the system this year - must be some new guy in there
www.bet365.com do 1/2 point betting - normally 5/6 your call - so odds may not be as good.

[Lone Shark]

Seeing as yes, Ladbrokes were 1/2 point handicaps last year and full point this year, I'll field it on our behalf anyway. Bombidal can speak for Powers, if he chooses to do so.

Yes, 5/6 each of two in 108.5% over-round while 1/1, 1/1 and 8/1 is is 111%, so obviously there is an in-built margin advantage for the bookmaker. However there is more to it than this.

(1) Odd though it may seem, there are people who like punting the handicap draw - and occasionally it can be over-priced. Witness my recommendation of the mythical draw on the Charity bet thread. Quite often you see games which are likely to be very low scoring and a handicap draw can be a very live runner. I would wager that this weekend if you were to look for best price the handicap draw on the Armagh game you wouldn't be too far away for example.

(2) If there were several punters like you who understood the difference and were willing to offer their business to bookies who priced 5/6 each of two, then I've no doubt a bookie would be delighted to go get them. However having worked for both firms, I've seen the percentage of Powers GAA business that went on whole point handicaps and I've seen the percentage of Lads business that went on half point handicaps last year. The numbers indicate that people prefer the whole point market. Now possibly that could be partially down to marketing differences, but my experiences this year since the change appear to back that up. I can only imagine that punters have a psychological barrier between backing even money and backing 5/6. I have no direct evidence to suggest that this is the case, but if the percentage of handicap business has increased since we've changed system, I can hardly go back?

(3) Two event prices can look quite prohibitive when you're forced to change the price. If I lay an even money shot on one side of the handicap, I can go 4/6 vs 6/4 and leave the handicap draw at 8/1, and at 6/4 I might get takers for the other side. I'm basically working to break even book, but there are worse things in this game than an even book. In order to offer a similarly attractive price on a half point handicap i have to go 1/2 about the team that's been backed. This looks ridiculous and defeats the purpose of a handicap. Moving the line often ust pushes you back into the middle of the market where you'll take very little money.

I understand that from the point of view of the discerning punter half point handicaps do have certain advantages, however the discerning punter is greatly outnumbered by the more seat-of-the-pants variety, and it's hardly surprising that bookies will cater to the largest market.


As regards the other issue that has cropped up on the thread, seeing as I am anything but objective and I've no wish to be seen to sticking it to my old employers, I won't get into it myself, but obviously I am watching with interest... 

[Louth Exile]

To be honest I don't care what you think.

Excellent, we have an admission from the PR machine that is Paddy Powers that they don't care what a decent customer of theirs thinks?

I think you must have missed the classes that your marketing department went on the past few years

Very Good 

On the Handicap system, as a punter who without exception will use the handicap system in doind GAA accums I prefer the whole point system

[joemamas]

louth exile,

Find that hard to fathom, look at last sunday, wexford were +3, they tied the handicap, but anybody who took them for this bet, or laois -3 all lost, they did not get their money back like they would have in other sports.

At least with half points , you do not have a similar gripe, in addition it would rule our handicap draws, which without question reduce the odds for the punter.

I wonder is it possible that a lot of punters do not fully understand the 1/2 point handicap.

[Lone Shark]

I wonder is it possible that a lot of punters do not fully understand the 1/2 point handicap.

I'm not sure if it's about whether or not they understand it, but they certainly don't go for it. Look at Betfair - a monolith in all other areas of the betting industry but negligible GAA depth and turnover, and they do half point handicaps.

I'm not saying that there aren't punters who would prefer it, but I'm sorry to say ye appear to be well into the minority.....