is now a good time to buy shares?

[heganboy]

don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected

Given that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...

Though "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat

[Tyrones own]

Given that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...

Oh I couldn't agree more and have said as much on numerous occasions.

Though "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat

You, me and the rest of the investors/traders in this country and abroad and i think the numbers
tell as much..

[dec]

Given that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...

Oh I couldn't agree more and have said as much on numerous occasions.

Though "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat

You, me and the rest of the investors/traders in this country and abroad and i think the numbers
tell as much..

In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it's a weighing machine.

[heganboy]

In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it's a weighing machine.

Ah don't believe the hype - the perfect market theory is a crock

[the Deel Rover]

aib shares up to the dizzy Heights of .98 cents 

[tyronefan]

I see the markets are rising for the past several weeks,  does this mean we are over the worst of this or is this just a false dawn

[Bogball XV]

Both banks have risen meteorically this morning, there's no obvious news that I can see, so i'll have to presume that news has been leaked and that the bad bank is happening and will be announced next week.  The details will be very interesting, I wonder just how much of a hit we'll end up taking on this - probably about 35-40Bn??  I suppose the initial damage was done with the ridiculous knee jerk guarantee scheme back in Sept, but still, this seems very wrong to me as the only thing it's doing is bailing out the shareholders.

The worst of it is that I don't think it'll actually fix the problem, I know it's been recommended by Bacon (who is good and worth listening to), but I can't see why this will encourage banks to lend to business.  These are difficult times and maybe banks lending willy nilly to businesses is not the right thing to do anyway. 

Btw, re the markets rising etc, I think it's just a dead cat bounce, with unemployment being ramped up worldwide next years earnings figures can only be worse than this years, we've probably got a long way to drop yet.

[Croí na hÉireann]

Both banks have risen meteorically this morning, there's no obvious news that I can see, so i'll have to presume that news has been leaked and that the bad bank is happening and will be announced next week.  The details will be very interesting, I wonder just how much of a hit we'll end up taking on this - probably about 35-40Bn??  I suppose the initial damage was done with the ridiculous knee jerk guarantee scheme back in Sept, but still, this seems very wrong to me as the only thing it's doing is bailing out the shareholders.

The worst of it is that I don't think it'll actually fix the problem, I know it's been recommended by Bacon (who is good and worth listening to), but I can't see why this will encourage banks to lend to business.  These are difficult times and maybe banks lending willy nilly to businesses is not the right thing to do anyway. 

Btw, re the markets rising etc, I think it's just a dead cat bounce, with unemployment being ramped up worldwide next years earnings figures can only be worse than this years, we've probably got a long way to drop yet.

Including the prices of houses???

[Declan]

Including the prices of houses???

Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%

I wouldn't say that you'd be too far out with that.

[Bogball XV]

Including the prices of houses???

Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%

I would concur with at least that much of a drop in real terms, although if inflation does kick in as predicted by many the drop in money terms may not be as much.

Croi, imo there are several fundamentals that have to be looked at in relation to house prices:
1. Disposable income - that is dropping dramatically for almost everyone in this country, between salary drops and tax/levy increases people will not have the money to service the same levels of debt.
2. Banks ability to fund mortgages - again, with the shrinking of the world credit maket, the pool of easy money our banks have been accessing over the past decade is gone - it won't be back for a while either as regulation will ensure that for the time being nonsense products will not be available.
3. Banks willingness to borrow - this is a huge factor, as you know banks currently won't give out loans, since they're the only source of funding for property buyers, how can house prices exceed the amount that banks are willing to loan?  This is the issue that the bad bank is trying to address, I doubt that it will succeed, and even if it does banks will not be adopting the same profligate lending policies as before - not only will they have to retain higher levels of cash in reserve, but they will start vetting disposable incomes and applicatons - whatever happens here, banks will be lending fractions of what they used to.
4. Interest rates - important normally, but they're so low now as to not matter - there's very little room to drop further so the only way is up, once again, if as expected inflation starts to rear her ugly head the ECB will have these up quick smart.

There are plenty of other factors like replacement dwellings required, population growth, immigration, vacant properties and I've probably left out some other big ones, but the above should suffice for now.

[muppet]

is now a good time to buy shares?

Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "bobbing up and down" and that the "profits and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected

If you bought in on any index that day and sold out now Obama would have been right.

That said it could of course be a bounce.

I bought a few shares three weeks ago but only taken a small loss. I should have done the index.  

[Croí na hÉireann]

Including the prices of houses???

Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%

I would concur with at least that much of a drop in real terms, although if inflation does kick in as predicted by many the drop in money terms may not be as much.

Croi, imo there are several fundamentals that have to be looked at in relation to house prices:
1. Disposable income - that is dropping dramatically for almost everyone in this country, between salary drops and tax/levy increases people will not have the money to service the same levels of debt.
2. Banks ability to fund mortgages - again, with the shrinking of the world credit maket, the pool of easy money our banks have been accessing over the past decade is gone - it won't be back for a while either as regulation will ensure that for the time being nonsense products will not be available.
3. Banks willingness to borrow - this is a huge factor, as you know banks currently won't give out loans, since they're the only source of funding for property buyers, how can house prices exceed the amount that banks are willing to loan?  This is the issue that the bad bank is trying to address, I doubt that it will succeed, and even if it does banks will not be adopting the same profligate lending policies as before - not only will they have to retain higher levels of cash in reserve, but they will start vetting disposable incomes and applicatons - whatever happens here, banks will be lending fractions of what they used to.
4. Interest rates - important normally, but they're so low now as to not matter - there's very little room to drop further so the only way is up, once again, if as expected inflation starts to rear her ugly head the ECB will have these up quick smart.

There are plenty of other factors like replacement dwellings required, population growth, immigration, vacant properties and I've probably left out some other big ones, but the above should suffice for now.

I would agree with all that. Think we'll see houses bottom out around 50% of what they were worth at the peak. Sold mine there recently and we're already back to 2003 levels, 30% less than peak value... Although if the current "difficulties" worsen we could swing right past 50%.

[armaghniac]

The Central Bank predicts -7% in GNP this year and -3% next year, so the thing still has some way to go. There won't be much inflation in these circumstances, quite the opposite, all prices may fall.  House prices are not going to bottom out for a while and as Bogball says even if you get a loan the long term interest rates will be significantly higher, but wages will not grow as they have done. As I said a couple need to get a house on 2.5-3 times their income, incomes that will have fallen. There has to be houses for most people at this multiple and even posh areas have to have houses affordable by a professional couples on good salaries.

[Tyrones own]

is now a good time to buy shares?

Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "bobbing up and down" and that the "profits and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected

If you bought in on any index that day and sold out now Obama would have been right.

That said it could of course be a bounce.

I bought a few shares three weeks ago but only taken a small loss. I should have done the index.  

Indexes are the way to go..did you ever look in to futures?