Race for the ARAS 2025

[seafoid]

There was no campaign last year.

Latest opinion poll
Connolly 38%
Humphreys 20%
Gavin 5%.

Won't vote 12%
Will spoil vote 6%

Another interesting part of that poll was that Gavin's votes would have transferred pretty evenly across the two. I dont think many people would have thought that?

Would suggest a lot of FF voters and "FF gene pool" voters staying at home or undecided.

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/16/catherine-connolly-on-course-for-presidential-election-win-with-strong-lead-in-new-poll/

The poll also contains evidence of voter disillusionment with the slate of candidates offered to them. Almost half of voters (49 per cent) said they "don't feel represented by any of the candidates"; 40 per cent disagreed.

More than half (55 per cent) said the Constitution should be changed to make it easier to run for the presidency, with just over a third (34 per cent) disagreeing.

A clear majority of voters who expressed a view on the issue said conservative campaigner Maria Steen – who tried and failed narrowly to secure entry to the race through nominations by Oireachtas members – should have been in the contest. Asked if she should have been facilitated, 45 per cent agreed, 24 per cent disagreed and 31 per cent had no opinion.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/16/presidential-election-poll-only-an-earthquake-could-deny-catherine-connolly-victory/

Presidential elections have seen dramatic late swings before. But it would take an earthquake now for Catherine Connolly to be denied victory in next week's vote, Thursday's Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll suggests.

Thursday's poll is the first of the campaign for which the sampling was conducted entirely after the dramatic departure of the Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin from the race.

And it is clear from these numbers that Gavin's exit from the campaign – though he remains, of course, on the ballot paper – has not delivered for Heather Humphreys in anything like the way that she might have hoped.



In fact, the reduction of the campaign to a two-horse race has worked rather better for Connolly, who now stands on the threshold of a stunning victory that was scarcely imaginable when she entered the campaign, the first in the field, as an Independent back in July

[Baile Brigín 2]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/16/presidential-election-poll-only-an-earthquake-could-deny-catherine-connolly-victory/

Presidential elections have seen dramatic late swings before. But it would take an earthquake now for Catherine Connolly to be denied victory in next week's vote, Thursday's Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll suggests.

Thursday's poll is the first of the campaign for which the sampling was conducted entirely after the dramatic departure of the Fianna Fáil candidate Jim Gavin from the race.

And it is clear from these numbers that Gavin's exit from the campaign – though he remains, of course, on the ballot paper – has not delivered for Heather Humphreys in anything like the way that she might have hoped.



In fact, the reduction of the campaign to a two-horse race has worked rather better for Connolly, who now stands on the threshold of a stunning victory that was scarcely imaginable when she entered the campaign, the first in the field, as an Independent back in July

She was always winning easily. Just HH ran such a poor campaign she doesn't appear to have capitalised on the Gavin debable

[weareros]

See SpoilTheVote held a press conference today to officially launch their presidential campaign. Ganley, Una McGurk, Elaine Mulally, and Restaurant Gemma. Where was Maria?

[Rossfan]

What a fkn chamber of horrors!

[Captain Scarlet]

Sure you dont expect Maria to actually turn up to these things?

Lookit she has 7 years now to start grinding and going for Council or even TD.

[Rossfan]

CC 1/10
HH 6/1.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/18/combined-support-for-fianna-fail-and-fine-gael-at-historic-low/

Today's Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll reveals a drop in support for Fianna Fáil, down five percentage points to 17 per cent. The gamble on Jim Gavin has not paid off.
Some of the party's voters appear to have drifted across to Sinn Féin, which is up five points to 27 per cent. Fine Gael records a modest increase in support, up one point to 18 per cent.

[Captain Scarlet]

Enoch has entered the room!
After a classic Burkean move of rocking up to where CC was speaking then roaring assault he was recorded calling for people to support HH.

[From the Bunker]

What a fkn chamber of horrors!

Yeah, the choosing of 3 and now 2 by the Monopoly Parties looks a complete shambles.

I'm glad you agree. 

[Munchie]

There seems to be a lot of traction on social media to spoil ones vote, wonder how much of this actually materalizes.

[Rossfan]

It seems to be the "nice right" acting like spoiled brats over having no candidate on the ballot paper.
Doesn't matter to the outcome as only valid votes will decide the winner.

[Genocide Organ]

That's true - but it will still embarrass them if there's a significant amount of spoiled votes. A good kick up the Áras, as they say!

[Truthsayer]

There seems to be a lot of traction on social media to spoil ones vote, wonder how much of this actually materalizes.

Social media not reflective of the population.. bit like the far right in the council elections. Loud on Facebook.. didn't count when it came to election time.
Maria Steen fans doing some whingeing calling for spoilt votes while that other fundamentalist Burke calling for votes for Humphries.

[Captain Scarlet]

I notice that in the various reports about Burke and Connolly interaction there's never a mention of head the ball supporting Heather.
There are always a few ambushed when people are canvassing but the people tend to find out about political motivation abd who they support.