General Election 2024

[Pub Bore]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

Say FF get 50 seats and SF 37, then that is a government. But would FF agree to a joint Taoiseach with a party with three-quarters of their seats and would SF agree not to have a Taoiseach?

In that scenario I can see SF being happy with a couple of big ministries, e.g. Finance, Housing and probably Foreign Affairs as this covers the North - or maybe a new Dept. for National Unity to plan for a UI??  FF might be more sceptical, I think it would take Micheal to stand down for this to happen and he's not going to do that if he's just returned FF as the biggest party in the Dáil?  Mind you, politics and the prospect of political power is a funny old game...

[Armagh18]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

Say FF get 50 seats and SF 37, then that is a government. But would FF agree to a joint Taoiseach with a party with three-quarters of their seats and would SF agree not to have a Taoiseach?

In that scenario I can see SF being happy with a couple of big ministries, e.g. Finance, Housing and probably Foreign Affairs as this covers the North - or maybe a new Dept. for National Unity to plan for a UI??  FF might be more sceptical, I think it would take Micheal to stand down for this to happen and he's not going to do that if he's just returned FF as the biggest party in the Dáil?  Mind you, politics and the prospect of political power is a funny old game...

SF should insist on that and housing.

Hardly matter though as FG/FF will stick together and probably take Labour with them.

[Hound]

FF would prefer to go in with FG alright as their economic policies are quite closely aligned and have had extraordinary success. (Albeit you can debate how successfully they have used it)

If however FG do badly and there is enough seats for FF-SF to form a government (with some others perhaps), then I do think FF will take the plunge. However, if they have 10 seats more than SF then FF will hold all the cards. So both shared Taoiseach and Finance won't be on the table. It'll be Health and Housing and Foreign Affairs and some junior posts. Then SF can decide whether to take it and finally get into government or go for another election (which would be risky).

 If it's neck and neck, then that's a different story

[shark]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

Say FF get 50 seats and SF 37, then that is a government. But would FF agree to a joint Taoiseach with a party with three-quarters of their seats and would SF agree not to have a Taoiseach?

In that scenario I can see SF being happy with a couple of big ministries, e.g. Finance, Housing and probably Foreign Affairs as this covers the North - or maybe a new Dept. for National Unity to plan for a UI??  FF might be more sceptical, I think it would take Micheal to stand down for this to happen and he's not going to do that if he's just returned FF as the biggest party in the Dáil?  Mind you, politics and the prospect of political power is a funny old game...

SF should insist on that and housing.

Hardly matter though as FG/FF will stick together and probably take Labour with them.

We really don't need more bloody departments. All creating work for each other with no increase in output. DPER should have been wound down by now ; but it seems we only add add add, and never cut.

[Armagh18]

Will Simple Simon avoid any gaffes tonight?

Mary Lou will run them into the ground I'm sure

[marty34]

Was thinking is FG looking to go into opposition?  Is that their plan?

I mean, when you look at all the TD's they have who are not running again, it seems not to be a coincidence.

A lot of them have been about a while and maybe don't fancy a gig on the opposition benches, so they'd jumped ship.

Just a thought.

For all the wealth Ireland has, the place is a complete mess - housing, health and education etc. Never mind immigration. I watched Katie Hannon's Up Front programme last night and you'd swear that FFG were new to the whole experience in government. It was just a mess.

 

[weareros]

Kerry poll by TG4 (5 seater)

Looks like:

2 X Healy Raes
1 FF
1 FG
1 SF

FULL TG4 Ipsos B&A poll Result

Michael HEALY-RAE Non-Party
27pc

Norma FOLEY Fianna Fáil
14pc

Billy O'SHEA Fine Gael
14pc

Pa DALY Sinn Féin
12pc

Danny HEALY-RAE Non-Party
10pc

Michael CAHILL Fianna Fáil
7pc

Stephanie O'SHEA Sinn Féin
3pc

Cleo MURPHY Green Party
3%

Linda GORDON KELLEHER Fianna Fáil
3pc

Mike KENNEDY Labour
2%

Catherine O'Sullivan Aontú
1%

[trileacman]

FF would prefer to go in with FG alright as their economic policies are quite closely aligned and have had extraordinary success. (Albeit you can debate how successfully they have used it)

If however FG do badly and there is enough seats for FF-SF to form a government (with some others perhaps), then I do think FF will take the plunge. However, if they have 10 seats more than SF then FF will hold all the cards. So both shared Taoiseach and Finance won't be on the table. It'll be Health and Housing and Foreign Affairs and some junior posts. Then SF can decide whether to take it and finally get into government or go for another election (which would be risky).

 If it's neck and neck, then that's a different story

Why those 3? Would they not throw them Agriculture? Usually an unpopular posting.

[Armagh18]

FF would prefer to go in with FG alright as their economic policies are quite closely aligned and have had extraordinary success. (Albeit you can debate how successfully they have used it)

If however FG do badly and there is enough seats for FF-SF to form a government (with some others perhaps), then I do think FF will take the plunge. However, if they have 10 seats more than SF then FF will hold all the cards. So both shared Taoiseach and Finance won't be on the table. It'll be Health and Housing and Foreign Affairs and some junior posts. Then SF can decide whether to take it and finally get into government or go for another election (which would be risky).

 If it's neck and neck, then that's a different story

Doherty should get finance given he's easily the best politician in the country

[Tubberman]

FF would prefer to go in with FG alright as their economic policies are quite closely aligned and have had extraordinary success. (Albeit you can debate how successfully they have used it)

If however FG do badly and there is enough seats for FF-SF to form a government (with some others perhaps), then I do think FF will take the plunge. However, if they have 10 seats more than SF then FF will hold all the cards. So both shared Taoiseach and Finance won't be on the table. It'll be Health and Housing and Foreign Affairs and some junior posts. Then SF can decide whether to take it and finally get into government or go for another election (which would be risky).

 If it's neck and neck, then that's a different story

Doherty should get finance given he's easily the best politician in the country

On what measurable criteria is he easily the best politician in the country?

[Armagh18]

Simon and Michael- all these promises and chsnges sound great. Why havent you done them already?

[armaghniac]

Simon and Michael- all these promises and chsnges sound great. Why havent you done them already?

Why hasn't Derry won the All Ireland already? That does not mean that they do not have a plan to do so in 2025.

[JoG2]

Simon and Michael- all these promises and chsnges sound great. Why havent you done them already?

Why hasn't Derry won the All Ireland already? That does not mean that they do not have a plan to do so in 2025.

We have.... And in our 15th year, we will deliver #FG. Starting to shift towards MAGA levels of delusion

[armaghniac]

We have.... And in our 15th year, we will deliver #FG. Starting to shift towards MAGA levels of delusion

Apart from Covid, housing output has increased every year in the last decade.

[Sportacus]

Are Sinn Fein taking their pay home now, North and South?  It was a silly policy in my opinion.