General Election 2024

[cryptoGuy]

Unlikely, but a populist FF/SF minority coalition is not out of the question. Micheál seems vexed with Harris and FG these days. Sf supporters will say FF won't work with us, but there's such a thing as side deals and the art of negotiation. If John Bruton's FG could go into a coalition with former IRA man DeRossa's Democratic Left, there's no reason FF/SF can't form a coalition. Mary Lou herself is FF gene pool.

Couldn't see that happening as long as Martin heads FF.  Over the years I've voted from FF to FG to SF or certain independents depending on how sick I was of the encumbents.  Christ, it's a shocking poor selection this time round.  Harris is sickeningly insincere, Martin is so prissy and sanctimonious.
The wave of scandals and question marks over SF of late is making me question where I had intended voting from a long time back.  Then I end up fully cynical and question what's the point- the civil service,  powerful lobbies and outside forces will call the shots anyway regardless of who is in government,  so effectively any minister is just a puppet on strings.
That said, I always vote, and anyone I talk to about elections,  I always make the point of the importance of voting,  even to the kids in school that aren't voting age yet.  Yes, politics might look like a shitshow, and yes it might seem futile or pointless voting anyway,  but the only hope of seeing any kind of choice or consequence is by a high turnout.  A low turnout means a low bar for mediocrity,  and makes it easier for poor/ useless candidates to get elected again and again. With a real risk of jeopardy and potentially losing a seat, it raises accountability.
I have a deeply engrained culchie antipathy towards the Greens, but I always view their results as an indicator of how the economy is doing.  When a sector of people have money to spare and aren't in a financial squeeze, the Greens do well in urban/ more populated areas.  When things are tanking,  they get kicked to touch.
It always feels a pyrrhic victory when they get their arses handed to them.

You'd want to try voting in an NI election before you complain of the quality of candidate. For 20 years we've voted in the same 2 useless shower of c@nts and despite it recently being showed they're both riddled with paedophiles, I'll safely guarantee they'll be returned in the same large numbers at the next election.

ROI democracy is infinitely healthier than either British, NI or American democracy which is essentially a carve up between 2 parties. In the south the greens, the hard left, rural folk, the republicans, the centre right, the centre left all have their own party and hence political representation is far broader.

Go on say 'The Far Right' it won't kill you.

The Greens are hard left no? Shinners too?

[Rossfan]

This is a thread for grown ups

[weareros]

Not a huge gap between top 3 in latest Red C poll.

FG - 22
FF - 21
SF - 18
Independents - 15
Social Democrats - 6
Aontú - 5
Green - 4
Labour - 3
Independent Ireland - 3
PBP - 2

[Rossfan]

Hmmmmm....
Tightening. 39/37/33 seats roughly if that was 1st prefs.

[Snapchap]

Unlikely, but a populist FF/SF minority coalition is not out of the question. Micheál seems vexed with Harris and FG these days. Sf supporters will say FF won't work with us, but there's such a thing as side deals and the art of negotiation. If John Bruton's FG could go into a coalition with former IRA man DeRossa's Democratic Left, there's no reason FF/SF can't form a coalition. Mary Lou herself is FF gene pool.

Couldn't see that happening as long as Martin heads FF.  Over the years I've voted from FF to FG to SF or certain independents depending on how sick I was of the encumbents.  Christ, it's a shocking poor selection this time round.  Harris is sickeningly insincere, Martin is so prissy and sanctimonious.
The wave of scandals and question marks over SF of late is making me question where I had intended voting from a long time back.  Then I end up fully cynical and question what's the point- the civil service,  powerful lobbies and outside forces will call the shots anyway regardless of who is in government,  so effectively any minister is just a puppet on strings.
That said, I always vote, and anyone I talk to about elections,  I always make the point of the importance of voting,  even to the kids in school that aren't voting age yet.  Yes, politics might look like a shitshow, and yes it might seem futile or pointless voting anyway,  but the only hope of seeing any kind of choice or consequence is by a high turnout.  A low turnout means a low bar for mediocrity,  and makes it easier for poor/ useless candidates to get elected again and again. With a real risk of jeopardy and potentially losing a seat, it raises accountability.
I have a deeply engrained culchie antipathy towards the Greens, but I always view their results as an indicator of how the economy is doing.  When a sector of people have money to spare and aren't in a financial squeeze, the Greens do well in urban/ more populated areas.  When things are tanking,  they get kicked to touch.
It always feels a pyrrhic victory when they get their arses handed to them.

You'd want to try voting in an NI election before you complain of the quality of candidate. For 20 years we've voted in the same 2 useless shower of c@nts and despite it recently being showed they're both riddled with paedophiles, I'll safely guarantee they'll be returned in the same large numbers at the next election.

ROI democracy is infinitely healthier than either British, NI or American democracy which is essentially a carve up between 2 parties. In the south the greens, the hard left, rural folk, the republicans, the centre right, the centre left all have their own party and hence political representation is far broader.

Can you name those from both parties we have recently learned to be paedophiles? I know wee Jeffrey is facing charges, and an ex-SF press officer has been found guilty but who else?

[Hound]

It was mentioned briefly above, but I'm sure FG will do less well than their poll numbers suggest due to the high turnover of candidates. You will have plenty of people who might be thinking FG1, but then don't recognize the FG candidate so give their number 1 elsewhere.

They'll probably do ok in transfers but at this stage I reckon FF will be the party with the most seats.

I wouldn't rule out a FF-SF coalition if the numbers are there (with MM standing aside), but if I was betting, I'd have a slight inclination to it being the same again, except Labour replacing Greens.

[Rossfan]

Or Soc Dems?

[From the Bunker]

It was mentioned briefly above, but I'm sure FG will do less well than their poll numbers suggest due to the high turnover of candidates. You will have plenty of people who might be thinking FG1, but then don't recognize the FG candidate so give their number 1 elsewhere.

They'll probably do ok in transfers but at this stage I reckon FF will be the party with the most seats.

I wouldn't rule out a FF-SF coalition if the numbers are there (with MM standing aside), but if I was betting, I'd have a slight inclination to it being the same again, except Labour replacing Greens.

I know this will be the case with Michael Ring in Mayo. He gathered votes from ballot boxes all over the county, from families who had allegiances to other parties and so on. Most that voted for him voted for the individual rather than the party.

[Pub Bore]

Michael O'Leary has been reading the "Teachers get it handy" thread on here!

[Captain Obvious]

Michael O'Leary has been reading the "Teachers get it handy" thread on here!

All Michael O'Leary said and it hit a nerve.

"The Dáil is full of teachers. Nothing wrong with teachers, I love teachers, but I wouldn't generally employ a lot of teachers to go out and get things done."

[weareros]

O'Leary has livened things up. Could be Fine Gael's RIC moment.

[Substandard]

Michael O'Leary has been reading the "Teachers get it handy" thread on here!

All Michael O'Leary said and it hit a nerve.

"The Dáil is full of teachers. Nothing wrong with teachers, I love teachers, but I wouldn't generally employ a lot of teachers to go out and get things done."

As a teacher, I find the reaction to this cringeworthy.  It was a tongue in cheek remark, not a particularly nasty cheap shot.  Coming across as that precious and thin-skinned is not a good look given fostering resilience is a part of well-being, which is part of our job in schools.
Get things done?  Touché, Mr O'Leary.  Loads of free publicity,  courtesy of the perpetually whinging teachers.
Jesus wept, but if he didn't,  all he could do was laugh, I suppose.

[armaghniac]

Michael O'Leary has been reading the "Teachers get it handy" thread on here!

All Michael O'Leary said and it hit a nerve.

"The Dáil is full of teachers. Nothing wrong with teachers, I love teachers, but I wouldn't generally employ a lot of teachers to go out and get things done."

As a teacher, I find the reaction to this cringeworthy.  It was a tongue in cheek remark, not a particularly nasty cheap shot.  Coming across as that precious and thin-skinned is not a good look given fostering resilience is a part of well-being, which is part of our job in schools.
Get things done?  Touché, Mr O'Leary.  Loads of free publicity,  courtesy of the perpetually whinging teachers.
Jesus wept, but if he didn't,  all he could do was laugh, I suppose.

The other parties landed on this, not necessarily at the behest of teachers. He did not say that teachers did not teach well, he said that there were too many in the Dáil. He also said that accountants had no personality, presumably he realised that in his own days in  Stokes Kennedy Crowley. For some reason that other parties did not make a big thing out of his comments about accountants.

[Rossfan]

It was the sound of the Blueshirt audience hollering and yahooing to the remarks that annoyed a lot of people.

Meanwhile Auction politics in full swing today.

There's a great time around the corner

[trileacman]

I was looking at the 2020 returns and I strongly suspect Hutch will be elected.