General Election 2024

[JoG2]

Have to agree with Snap (for once anyway ).
Usual fascistic hate spreading trying to hijack a thread.

Might as well blame Apple/Google/Intel for expanding and employing loads of people.

I'm not sure it's fascism to suggest a rapid increase in population will lead to increased demand on housing (and other public services).

It is.

If you don't want 10 million foreigners coming in you are a racist..

That's not what's happening though, racists are being called out as racists.. That get out jail card above doesn't really wash

[weareros]

According to Business Post (which would in general be more FG friendly), big black holes in all 3 parties manifestos, which are based on continued corporate tax windfalls.

Incredible Risk: The multi-billion euro holes in all three large parties' election manifestos
Windfall' warning: Sinn Féin short €85bn, Fine Gael €56bn and Fianna Fáil €55bn
DANIEL MURRAY 
01:00
 
The figures, revealed as part of the Business Post Verdict series, show the extent to which the three main parties are predicating their manifestos
The parties vying to lead the next government have large financial holes in their manifestos, amounting to tens of billions of euro, if increasingly risky corporate tax receipts recede in the coming years.
Stripping out the "windfall" element of the corporate tax base, Fine Gael's manifesto has a hole of €56 billion over the lifetime of the next government, Fianna Fáil has a hole of €55 billion, while Sinn Féin would be short a whopping €85 billion.

[Rossfan]

Manifestors are in effect works of fiction when you're not going to havec1 party rule.
They can put any wishlist they like together as it will be superseded by the Programme for Government.

I'm looking forward to the Arigna to Elphin tramline all the same.
Reminds me of a poem (Padraig Colum?)-
From Arigna they come
Irish miles a full score
From Croghan and Leitrim
And Ballinamire.

[Captain Scarlet]

Does the FG figure include the 5 billion black hole reported in the Journal?

[weareros]

Does the FG figure include the 5 billion black hole reported in the Journal?

The business post black holes for all 3 parties are a lot higher than €5 billion, ranging from €55 billion (FF) to €85 billion (SF). But not to worry, the record corporate tax windfalls are not going away...


Chambers says Fianna Fáil will 'revise tax and spending plans' if windfall taxes stop next year
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty dismissed the scenario of a sudden erasure of windfall taxes as 'not likely'
VISH GAIN 
17:07
 
Jack Chambers of Fianna Fáil, whose manifesto has a €55 billion hole over the lifetime of the next government, according to a Business Post analysis. Picture: Fergal Phillips
Fianna Fáil's Jack Chambers and Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty have defended their parties' fiscal policies after a Business Post analysis warned of tens of billions of euros in deficits if the "windfall" element of Ireland's corporate tax base were to extinguish.
Chambers, who is the minister of finance, told RTÉ's This Week on Sunday that in the event of such an "economic shock" to Ireland, his party would "revise the proposals and plans" on tax and expenditure.
According to figures revealed as part of the Business Post Verdict series, Fianna Fáil's manifesto has a €55 billion hole over the lifetime of the next government if windfall taxes were to end next year, while Sinn Féin would be short a whopping €85 billion. Fine Gael has a hole of €56 billion.
While all three parties are planning to run surpluses out to 2030 according to their own manifestos, they have all created tax and spending plans on the basis of already abnormal levels of corporate tax receipts continuing to grow.

[Rossfan]

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/elections-2024/fine-gael-admits-fianna-fail-likely-to-win-more-seats-after-series-of-simon-harris-howlers/a33254789.html

If the Blueshirts limp in third will they hop off into opposition?

[Pub Bore]

Irish Times/Ipsos B&A - Nov 20 -23

FF - 21%
SF - 20%
FG - 19%
IND - 17%
SD - 6%
LAB - 4%
GRE - 4%
AON - 3%
PBP - 3%

Game on?? Maybe, or a FF/FG/Lab gov this day week? Aontú have been around 5%-6% in a few other polls recently.

[johnnycool]

Irish Times/Ipsos B&A - Nov 20 -23

FF - 21%
SF - 20%
FG - 19%
IND - 17%
SD - 6%
LAB - 4%
GRE - 4%
AON - 3%
PBP - 3%

Game on?? Maybe, or a FF/FG/Lab gov this day week? Aontú have been around 5%-6% in a few other polls recently.

I'm no expert on how each constituency elect it's 5/4/3 representatives based on the constituency but it seemed like at the last election SF didn't make the most of their first preference votes as they didn't have enough candidates.

Have they more this time around and if their vote does tail off from the last election, could this split their vote?

[Rossfan]

There are in effect 40 something separate elections, local factors etc.
Shinners did so poorly in May 19 Locals and Euros they pared back on candidates for the 2020 GE.
Then they unexpectedly took off but hadn't enough candidates to cash in on seats.

[Pub Bore]

Irish Times/Ipsos B&A - Nov 20 -23

FF - 21%
SF - 20%
FG - 19%
IND - 17%
SD - 6%
LAB - 4%
GRE - 4%
AON - 3%
PBP - 3%

Game on?? Maybe, or a FF/FG/Lab gov this day week? Aontú have been around 5%-6% in a few other polls recently.

I'm no expert on how each constituency elect it's 5/4/3 representatives based on the constituency but it seemed like at the last election SF didn't make the most of their first preference votes as they didn't have enough candidates.

Have they more this time around and if their vote does tail off from the last election, could this split their vote?

Constituency boundaries have been re-jigged and increased to 43, and the size of the Dáil has been increased to 174 TDs (up from 160).  I think SF are running 59 candidates against 42 in 2020.  They ran too few candidates in the GE in 2020 and too many in the locals earlier this year. It's an area where SF are weak.  I see they've decided not to run 3 candidates in Donegal, maybe because the MICA Redress candidate is polling around 7%.

A key is where the array of Independents will transfer to, a bit of an unknown at this stage.  If SF get 20% of the no 1s, you'd expect them to return 37-40 TDs.  If they repeat the 24.5% of 2020 - which looks unlikely, somewhere around 50 seats.

[weareros]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

[Deerstalker]

Saw this earlier, I always assumed it would be much higher in the south

 @SeamusLeheny

Ireland Population: 5.38m
Social Housing waiting list = 58,000
NI Population: 1.9m
Social Housing waiting list = 47,000

🚨 If you can't see the problem facing NI and act now to provide more social & affordable homes, then be prepared for things to get a lot worse.

[trileacman]

Saw this earlier, I always assumed it would be much higher in the south

 @SeamusLeheny

Ireland Population: 5.38m
Social Housing waiting list = 58,000
NI Population: 1.9m
Social Housing waiting list = 47,000

🚨 If you can't see the problem facing NI and act now to provide more social & affordable homes, then be prepared for things to get a lot worse.

Likewise 104,000 children in NI live in poverty compared to 176,000 in Republic of Ireland. So it's a rate of 1 in 4 children in the North compared to 1 in 7 in the South.

[armaghniac]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

Say FF get 50 seats and SF 37, then that is a government. But would FF agree to a joint Taoiseach with a party with three-quarters of their seats and would SF agree not to have a Taoiseach?

[weareros]

The last poll that examined transfers was by Sunday Independent a couple of weeks ago. Surprisingly (or maybe not), FG were getting the largest share, as most independents, rural anyway, are to the right. That was all before Simon and FG went on their mishap tour (Michael O'Leary, McGahon, Charlotte the Carer). More likely that FF will get the highest share of independents transfers on top of FG transfers. SF biggest problems will be in transfers. FF look set to be the largest party. A FF, SF, Aontu coalition would not surprise at this stage.

Say FF get 50 seats and SF 37, then that is a government. But would FF agree to a joint Taoiseach with a party with three-quarters of their seats and would SF agree not to have a Taoiseach?

I think we might end up in a situation where a government cannot be formed and a new election will be called in New Year. Two parties are unlikely to have enough seats. Neither Labour or Greens will have enough to support FF/FG. FF/SF would need Aontu or Social Democrats or both. Will be an interesting couple of weeks.