All Ireland prelimQFs: Mayo/Derry, Galway/Monaghan, Tyrone/Roscommon, Louth/Cork

[snoopdog]

I'm a neutral northie and I was in Pairc Esler last sat night. I wouldn't be too confident Derry will beat Mayo. They looked like a Tailteann Cup team last sat night. Forwards were very poor and a better team than westmeath may have  had a couple of goals. I'd be thinking Mayo will win.

[bennydorano]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

[quit yo jibbajabba]

I love generalisations

[Armagh18]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

Yeah agree with you. Said it all year that Derry (injuries and mad tactics aside) are a good side on a similar level to us, Donegal, Mayo, Galway and Tyrone (on Tyrones good days). Probably a little behind Kerry and who are a little behind Dublin.

Having said all that anything could happen on a given day

[tbrick18]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

The highlighted bit is making us sound like Armagh supporters. Best forwards in the country not that long ago, but they couldn't score a penalty   
2 Ulsters in a row, 2 AISFs in a row, Div 1 league title - better than a lot of teams and I think shows that performances were more than outliers.
Doesn't mean we'll get back to that level again - but up until a few weeks ago that's where we were. Certainly ahead of Mayo and certainly ahead of Armagh. Things change quickly though.

I see the penalties are still hurting you - maybe one of these days Armagh will win a game on penalties and you'll be able to let the past go.

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, part and parcel of it all and of course we all have different opinions and we're probably all wrong.
Hopefully you're hole isnt too sickened 

[Armagh18]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

The highlighted bit is making us sound like Armagh supporters. Best forwards in the country not that long ago, but they couldn't score a penalty   
2 Ulsters in a row, 2 AISFs in a row, Div 1 league title - better than a lot of teams and I think shows that performances were more than outliers.
Doesn't mean we'll get back to that level again - but up until a few weeks ago that's where we were. Certainly ahead of Mayo and certainly ahead of Armagh. Things change quickly though.

I see the penalties are still hurting you - maybe one of these days Armagh will win a game on penalties and you'll be able to let the past go.

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, part and parcel of it all and of course we all have different opinions and we're probably all wrong.
Hopefully you're hole isnt too sickened 

Based on? Played Derry last year and were still level after extra time. Went to Celtic Park and tanked them 2 weeks ago. Derry full tilt drew with the Dubs who were only getting going (and who still are only gearing up) which is what Mayo did.) The league counts for very little as Mayo last year and Derry this year have shown.

[JoG2]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

Most haven't a clue how Derry will get on down in the heartlands of Connaught, myself included

[JoG2]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

 .. Gold!

[armaghniac]

Even the league final does not point to a Derry win, in that game Derry drew with Dublin, but Mayo recently drew with Dublin. Home advantage and recent form suggests Mayo for this one, perhaps Derry can do a Lazarus but Mayo will be seriously p**ssed if they allow Derry get past them after having allowed Dublin do so.

[bennydorano]

Early last year I regularly said Derry were a Shane McGuigan injury away from mediocrity, turns out it didn't even have to he him for the house of cards to tumble.

[Armagh18]

Early last year I regularly said Derry were a Shane McGuigan injury away from mediocrity, turns out it didn't even have to he him for the house of cards to tumble.

He may as well be injured. Some of his shooting has be woeful for a player as good as he's been the last few years.

[Main Street]

FWIW, I will be behind Derry all the way, however I suspect only one northern team will be victorious in Connacht this weekend, but If Derry make it a clean sweep my cup will runneth over.

[Never beat the deeler]

derry will beat mayo

I seen nothing at the weekend that shows Derry have sorted the mess out. Against very middling opposition they were lucky not to cough up another few ridiculous goals, the confidence was on the floor and only a late goal saw them to safety. McStay seemed very focused on the next challenge after drawing with the Dubs while Harte is going over nonsense about critics and empty vessels.. a tactic he uses to employ a siege mentality. Can't see  Derry win...

it's the perfect draw for derry. if they'd drawn someone else like a tyrone or a louth, i actually wouldn't be surprised to see them limp out. i just think it would be impossible for a game like this against opposition like mayo to not get the blood pumping for a team of derry's type, no matter what's going on behind the scenes. perfect opportunity to get the heads together and develop a siege mentality. they're going to be dismissed all week and it's just setting the stage.

further, mayo looked very dejected at the end of their game against dublin. i think they were really, really disappointed to not win that game and showed incredible naivety in the last 20 seconds. there's still an element of the flake in mayo, i wouldn't trust them at all to get the job done even against a team that is supposedly in a shambles in the dressing room.

Jez, you are talking up and talking down a fair bit there. Personally I think that both will be goosed for their game the following week against a rested Kerry/Dublin/Armagh/Donegal. So Saturdays result is of little consequence in the scheme of things. Derry have been flat now for 2 months.

didn't say either would do anything the following week. in fact i don't think any of the teams in the prelims will get a sniff of an all ireland final to be quite honest. i just think derry have a kick in them yet, there was some fighting talk from their camp last weekend post-match, and i don't think mayo are the type of team that effectively puts the opposition away early and firmly enough and once derry get a sniff of blood, they could easily grow into the game.

My thoughts on this when I heard the draw. Derry are the type of team that Mayo have struggled against. This is the perfect draw for Derry to get their season back on track. All I am hearing everywhere is how Derry are a beaten docket.
What better man than Mickey Harte to create a siege in the camp.

This could go any way

A siege mentality only works when it's your own county, He can't exactly stand up and beat the chest and point to the badge, it just wouldn't look or sound right.   

BS. Everyone outside these four walls thinks we're going out today, yada, yada, yada. Your choice.... Prove them right or prove them wrong..... well I for one believe in the [insert training regime]. They've forgotten we were league champions a few months ago


etc

[Steps]

Lost me at "sickens my hole"..... Seriously?

[tbrick18]

So the (Nordie)consensus is Derry to bate Mayowestros,  only thing in question is the margin of victory.

  

I don't know where you found that "consensus", but I can categorically say its certainly not the popular opinion from us "nordies".
A full strength, fully fit Derry beats a full strength fully fit Mayo 9/10 times.
We are far from full strength and players returning from injury are not fully fit. We're low on confidence given the manner of the defeats we've had and I personally feel the players are not buying into the Harte regime. A combination of injuries and a lack of belief in management and their "tactics" are resulting in the performances we're seeing.

Difficult to see a Derry win, unless we get a couple more players back from injury (Conor Doherty and Nial Loughlin) and unless we sort out the tactics.

I hope I'm wrong and the tripping over the line win against Westmeath is the kickstart our championship needs...but I'm expecting a Mayo win unfortunately.

Highlighted bit sickens my hole a bit I have to say, Derry supporters are a bit deluded as to where they are really at or even were. Their go to point of reference is the Kerry AI semi or League final v Dubs, 2 good performances but they're outliers not their 'standard', caught Kerry off guard a bit (still got beaten too), after a gift of a route to the semi (2 years in a row btw). Played championship fit all year this NFL season and now NFL Penalty Kick Champs but possibly reaping the whirlwind for that approach now too.

With all players fit Derry are a good team among other good teams (behind a couple of better teams), nothing more.

The highlighted bit is making us sound like Armagh supporters. Best forwards in the country not that long ago, but they couldn't score a penalty   
2 Ulsters in a row, 2 AISFs in a row, Div 1 league title - better than a lot of teams and I think shows that performances were more than outliers.
Doesn't mean we'll get back to that level again - but up until a few weeks ago that's where we were. Certainly ahead of Mayo and certainly ahead of Armagh. Things change quickly though.

I see the penalties are still hurting you - maybe one of these days Armagh will win a game on penalties and you'll be able to let the past go.

I don't mind you disagreeing with me, part and parcel of it all and of course we all have different opinions and we're probably all wrong.
Hopefully you're hole isnt too sickened 

Based on? Played Derry last year and were still level after extra time. Went to Celtic Park and tanked them 2 weeks ago. Derry full tilt drew with the Dubs who were only getting going (and who still are only gearing up) which is what Mayo did.) The league counts for very little as Mayo last year and Derry this year have shown.

We beat Mayo comfortably in the league this year and went on to win Div 1, the same Div Mayo are in. That put us ahead of them at that stage.

We had beaten Armagh the last time we played (get over the penalties chap - we won, you lost) in a game where we were all over the place due to the upheaval around a manager. We had a black card. Yous were in a winning position. And still lost. Derry were ahead of Armagh.
Armagh lost a Div2 final this year.
Derry won Div1. At that stage, Derry are ahead of Armagh.
 
Armagh stumbled over the line against Ferm and Down this year.
And if we want to use your logic - couldn't beat Galway who were without their most influential player.

As it stands - Armagh are ahead of Derry. No issue saying that. Deservedly tanked us, said it at the time. But I still stand over, Derry firing on all cylinders with everyone available are better than Armagh. But in that game, and probably in this championship you will go further than us - remains to be seen what yous will do against Kerry/Dublin/Donegal so judgement is reserved until we see that.

That's my logic.
You don't have to agree of course