Irish neutrality

Started by seafoid, February 20, 2023, 03:10:45 PM

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Banks of the Bann

#165
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 14, 2025, 08:44:45 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 13, 2025, 09:20:41 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 13, 2025, 08:23:59 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 12, 2025, 05:47:03 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 12, 2025, 05:06:49 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 12, 2025, 04:21:51 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on December 12, 2025, 03:52:18 PM
Quote from: seafoid on December 12, 2025, 03:32:39 PMA nuclear attack by Russia is unlikely. Economic attack is more likely unless we have deterrence. There is no excuse with the budget surplus.

We should be investing in cyber security and if necessary for defence purposes.

But back to a question asked earlier, how many jets do we need?

Having three isn't worth my arse full of warm snow, we need at least 20 and a few nuclear warheads hidden in the bogs of Offaly and to come out of the ground like in thunderbirds.



Do you think that aircraft that switch off their transponders and enter Irish airspace should be intercepted?
Define intercepted?

Do you seriously not know what it means?


I don't. But a big Russian bomber enters Irish airspace. We launch a Viggen. Then what?

The Irish jets intercept them. Go  and look it up. There's a good boy.
He repeats. Define intercept in this scenario,

Can "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

Banks of the Bann

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

seafoid


   https://www.ft.com/content/5cbedc56-b29a-4284-901b-aef5f6853135

   Britain's new head of MI6 will accuse Russia of exporting "chaos" and warn that the threat posed by Moscow will persist until Vladimir Putin is "forced to change his calculus", in her first public remarks since taking office.

Blaise Metreweli, who took the top job at the spy agency in June, will on Monday use a speech at MI6 headquarters to call Russia an "aggressive, expansionist and revisionist" adversary, just as the US is pressuring Ukraine to sign a peace deal seen as favourable to Putin.

Banks of the Bann

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

There is no need for me to define 'intercept'. You and I and anyone else reading this knows what it means. Why you pretend otherwise, only you know.

If you think that it's not a good idea for Russian bombers to know that they will be met by fighter jets when they enter the airspace of another country then do say so.

Are you happy to continue outsourcing this service to the British or can it be cancelled altogether?

Also, which arms companies are targeting Ireland with doomsday scenarios? Since it's 'clearly' happening can you let us all know?

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:47:05 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

There is no need for me to define 'intercept'. You and I and anyone else reading this knows what it means. Why you pretend otherwise, only you know.

If you think that it's not a good idea for Russian bombers to know that they will be met by fighter jets when they enter the airspace of another country then do say so.

Are you happy to continue outsourcing this service to the British or can it be cancelled altogether?

Also, which arms companies are targeting Ireland with doomsday scenarios? Since it's 'clearly' happening can you let us all know?

Will you get real.

You want us to buy fighter jets, which I am not opposed to, but refuse to say why.

I would prefer not to 'outsource it', but if we could really tighten up on priorities in the short term I would long finger it. It's not the most important gap to plug. We need anti drone weapons and a beefed up cyber defence first.

Banks of the Bann

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:57:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:47:05 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

There is no need for me to define 'intercept'. You and I and anyone else reading this knows what it means. Why you pretend otherwise, only you know.

If you think that it's not a good idea for Russian bombers to know that they will be met by fighter jets when they enter the airspace of another country then do say so.

Are you happy to continue outsourcing this service to the British or can it be cancelled altogether?

Also, which arms companies are targeting Ireland with doomsday scenarios? Since it's 'clearly' happening can you let us all know?

Will you get real.

You want us to buy fighter jets, which I am not opposed to, but refuse to say why.

I would prefer not to 'outsource it', but if we could really tighten up on priorities in the short term I would long finger it. It's not the most important gap to plug. We need anti drone weapons and a beefed up cyber defence first.

You appear to have gone from -

A - having fighter jets is a bit pointless and arms companies that sell them are targeting us with doomsday scenarios.

to

B - we need to prioritise other things first as the British can cover us in the air for the time being but it's better to be able to do this ourselves.

Am I reading this correctly?

Position B is reasonable and a perfectly valid point of view. I just don't know how you started at A and got to B.




Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 03:11:08 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:57:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:47:05 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

There is no need for me to define 'intercept'. You and I and anyone else reading this knows what it means. Why you pretend otherwise, only you know.

If you think that it's not a good idea for Russian bombers to know that they will be met by fighter jets when they enter the airspace of another country then do say so.

Are you happy to continue outsourcing this service to the British or can it be cancelled altogether?

Also, which arms companies are targeting Ireland with doomsday scenarios? Since it's 'clearly' happening can you let us all know?

Will you get real.

You want us to buy fighter jets, which I am not opposed to, but refuse to say why.

I would prefer not to 'outsource it', but if we could really tighten up on priorities in the short term I would long finger it. It's not the most important gap to plug. We need anti drone weapons and a beefed up cyber defence first.

You appear to have gone from -

A - having fighter jets is a bit pointless and arms companies that sell them are targeting us with doomsday scenarios.

to

B - we need to prioritise other things first as the British can cover us in the air for the time being but it's better to be able to do this ourselves.

Am I reading this correctly?

Position B is reasonable and a perfectly valid point of view. I just don't know how you started at A and got to B.





I never said it was pointless. I (pointlessly) asked you why you think they are needed. What does 'intercept' actually mean? If we aren't going to shoot one down, and we aren't,is a fighter jet needed to simply note? Again, we should have some, but your scenario is fuzzy.

I am perfectly happy to believe we have allowed the Department of Finance to crush defence spending (ARW not given agreed pay rises, Paschal nixed low interst EU loans the Dept of Defence wanted to draw down and so on) to the point where they have created a crisis that needs emergency remidation and that there is a clear jostling to get us to buy extravagent kit from x and y that should be ignored.

B is a fair summation of my position.

seafoid

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?
The budget will be bigger than 500m.
https://www.military.ie/en/public-information/publications/report-of-the-commission-on-defence-forces/

Baile Brigín 2

Quote from: seafoid on December 15, 2025, 03:52:38 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?
The budget will be bigger than 500m.
https://www.military.ie/en/public-information/publications/report-of-the-commission-on-defence-forces/
I know. That's why I said it.

seafoid

https://www.military.ie/en/public-information/publications/report-of-the-commission-on-defence-forces/report-of-the-commission-on-defence-forces.pdf

Defence Funding
Compared to our peers in western and northern Europe, it is very clear that Ireland is an
outlier in relation to defence funding. The scale of additional funding that is required for each
level of ambition has been illustrated on a single year basis by comparing the 2020 gross
outturn (representing LOA 1) against an approximation for LOA 2 and LOA 3. Based on the
Commission's own estimate of the cost of a step up to LOA 2, an annual increase of some
50%, bringing the funding up to approximately €1,500m4 per year, would be required. For a
further step up to LOA 3, which is based on the 2020 average GDP % of comparator countries
applied to Ireland's estimated 2020 GNI*, the Commission estimates that an annual budget
of almost €3,000m would be required. 
The Commission acknowledges the great challenge faced in managing the public finances in
the wake of the financial crash and more recently the impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic. It
recognises that budgetary policy must be framed within a prudent macro‐economic
framework and in the light of many competing demands.
As has previously been acknowledged by Government in its White Paper and White Paper
Update, demands on defence capability are becoming more sophisticated and dynamic while
4This is an estimation based on indicative figures provided by the Department of Defence and the Defence Forces for the
purposes of calculating the approximate cost of a step up to LOA 2.   
xii
present funding levels only allow for major equipment platforms and infrastructure to be
upgraded very sequentially, or over extended periods of acquisition. This implies a very low
level of ambition and the scale of the gap is clearly illustrated by the financial data in this
report. It is clear to the Commission that the current level of financial commitment (LOA 1)
delivers military capabilities which are inadequate for the Defence of Ireland and its people
from the threats identified in this report and staying at this level will also severely constrain
the capacity of the Defence Forces to maintain its overseas commitments and deliver required
levels of ATCP and ATCA supports. Providing a credible defence, on a par with comparator
countries, would require a Government policy decision to move to LOA 3 with the appropriate
budget. A Government decision to move to LOA 2 would address priority gaps in our current
capabilities to defend Ireland's sovereign interests, serve on high intensity missions abroad
and contribute to national resilience and security. However, it would not deliver the capability
required to develop full spectrum defence capabilities on a par with other sovereign European
countries. The Commission recommends that consideration be given to a step up to LOA 2, as
described in this report, in the short term pending the more detailed policy debate and
decision required for higher levels of ambition.


Banks of the Bann

Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 03:41:30 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 03:11:08 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:57:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:47:05 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:35:37 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 15, 2025, 02:27:23 PM
Quote from: Baile Brigín 2 on December 15, 2025, 02:22:02 PM
Quote from: Banks of the Bann on December 14, 2025, 09:00:37 PMCan "He" just get to the punchline. Good lad. Can't wait.
There is no punchline.

We buy new fighter jets.

A Rusdian bomber flies in or near Irish airspace.

We launch said fighter jets.

Then what?

The Irish fighter jets intercept the Russian bomber.

If you think there is no need, do you advocate the Irish government informing the RAF that they no longer require their services?
That undefined intercept word again.

I'm saying if the sole purpose of a €500m fighter plane purchase plus maintenance is simply to fly beside a Russian bomber and go 'yep, that's a Russian bomber', is this worth the spend? Primary radar does that. Which we have bought.

As it happens I think we do need to spend a lot more, but we are clearly being targeted by arms companies with their doomsday scenarios. So do we spend that €500m on fighter jets or on cyber? Or on the Navy to protect against drones, drug smugglers and protect cables? Double the ARW, or create a tier 2 special forces?

Floor is yours, why spend almost half of the increased budget on fighters?

There is no need for me to define 'intercept'. You and I and anyone else reading this knows what it means. Why you pretend otherwise, only you know.

If you think that it's not a good idea for Russian bombers to know that they will be met by fighter jets when they enter the airspace of another country then do say so.

Are you happy to continue outsourcing this service to the British or can it be cancelled altogether?

Also, which arms companies are targeting Ireland with doomsday scenarios? Since it's 'clearly' happening can you let us all know?

Will you get real.

You want us to buy fighter jets, which I am not opposed to, but refuse to say why.

I would prefer not to 'outsource it', but if we could really tighten up on priorities in the short term I would long finger it. It's not the most important gap to plug. We need anti drone weapons and a beefed up cyber defence first.

You appear to have gone from -

A - having fighter jets is a bit pointless and arms companies that sell them are targeting us with doomsday scenarios.

to

B - we need to prioritise other things first as the British can cover us in the air for the time being but it's better to be able to do this ourselves.

Am I reading this correctly?

Position B is reasonable and a perfectly valid point of view. I just don't know how you started at A and got to B.





I never said it was pointless. I (pointlessly) asked you why you think they are needed. What does 'intercept' actually mean? If we aren't going to shoot one down, and we aren't,is a fighter jet needed to simply note? Again, we should have some, but your scenario is fuzzy.

I am perfectly happy to believe we have allowed the Department of Finance to crush defence spending (ARW not given agreed pay rises, Paschal nixed low interst EU loans the Dept of Defence wanted to draw down and so on) to the point where they have created a crisis that needs emergency remidation and that there is a clear jostling to get us to buy extravagent kit from x and y that should be ignored.

B is a fair summation of my position.

Unidentified aircraft that enter national airspace need to be 'intercepted', i.e. approached by military aircraft and identified. If they are civilian airliners in trouble, they may need escort to an airfield. There may be other scenarios, e.g. potential hijack etc, in which case a plane may need to be shot down (unlikely thankfully).

If the plane is a foreign military aircraft, they need escorted out. There are recognised procedures for doing this. Usually the aircraft are just probing reaction and making a nuisance of themselves to escalate tensions.

The point is, there MUST be fighter jets capable of doing this over national airspace. You can't have unprotected airspace.

You've said you're happy with the Brits doing it for now and spending the money elsewhere first. That's fine. I have no issue  with that.

Banks of the Bann