A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[brokencrossbar1]

There won't be a border poll even considered until after the next census....in 2031. Mehole with a bloody Captain Obvious approach. The reality is the results of the the 2031 Census won't be available until 2032. There will have been at least 1 general election at that stage and possibly 2 Stormont elections. This will give a direct overview of where the land lies. If SF hold all their seats and Gregory Campbell's seat goes green then it is good night Irene for Northern Ireland,  will be as simple as that. IMHO the date is likely 2035-ish

[Rossfan]

That 21 or 22 Census gave us (as I recall) 31.9% British only, 29 8% Irish only.
Fair to say we know how that 60% will vote.
That should flip (or more) by 2031/32
The other 40% will be the deciders..

[AustinPowers]

There won't be a border poll even considered until after the next census....in 2031. Mehole with a bloody Captain Obvious approach. The reality is the results of the the 2031 Census won't be available until 2032. There will have been at least 1 general election at that stage and possibly 2 Stormont elections. This will give a direct overview of where the land lies. If SF hold all their seats and Gregory Campbell's seat goes green then it is good night Irene for Northern Ireland,  will be as simple as that. IMHO the date is likely 2035-ish

That's ten years for unionist leaders to  butter up  nationalists then.  They would need to get  started.

MM is clearly the biggest obstacle  to a border poll than  the British government or  SoS.

[Rossfan]

MM is reflecting the views of the majority of people in the 26 Cos.
Of course we'd like a UI .....but not yet or for many a day.

[weareros]

You are talking about a 6 point difference in opinion polls now. The next LucidTalk in Feb 2026 will probably see a number of 47 to 43 - down to 4. It will be around 46-44 by 2027/8 and evens 2029/30.

A poll won't be called until it looks like a United Ireland will pass, so you will likely see the poll called in 2032 when UI takes the lead in polls with the border poll happening in 2034/35. I actually agree with Benn that GFA is very clear on when it should be called. The bigger question is is that based on opinion polls or election results.

Martin is wrong and a weak man for not being an advocate; Mary Lou is pushing for it too soon based on opinion polls.

Of course this could be all scuppered by fiercely nationalistic Reform taking power and not wanting to give up what they see as UK territory no matter how much the majority want out. Although they are also revenue focused and they will be happy to save the money and pump it into English towns instead.

[Snapchap]

MM is reflecting the views of the majority of people in the 26 Cos.
Of course we'd like a UI .....but not yet or for many a day.

MM reflecting the views of the majority in the south? Really? What are you basing that claim on?

Because according to the latest ARINS polls, 76% of people in the republic support a border poll in about next decade. Michael Martin however, is pushing the idea of essentially a permanent unionist veto over a poll ever being called. So in reality, he's in step with the 6% of voters in the south who said they don't believe there should ever be a poll.

The poll suggests that a majority of peple in the south (two thirds) believe it is important to being planning for unity now, with a third of people believing it is "extremely" important for that planning to begin. Martin however, is refusing to plan for it.
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/02/10/majorities-in-north-and-south-favour-planning-for-irish-unity/

[Pub Bore]

We need reconciliation in the North before a UI, but we don't need reconciliation in the North to live in the UK every day...is that right?  It's divisive to contemplate a border poll but it wasn't divisive to partition the country or for Irish people to be forced to live in a state that treated them worse than the British had treated Irish people in the 26?  Vote Fianna Fáil - The I'm Alright Jack Party

[imtommygunn]

MM is reflecting the views of the majority of people in the 26 Cos.
Of course we'd like a UI .....but not yet or for many a day.

Please expand on this bit... What day would you like it on?

[Rossfan]

A Friday!

[Armagh18]

MM is reflecting the views of the majority of people in the 26 Cos.
Of course we'd like a UI .....but not yet or for many a day.

Surely the majority aren't west brits like yourself

[naka]

MM is reflecting the views of the majority of people in the 26 Cos.
Of course we'd like a UI .....but not yet or for many a day.

Interesting comment ... not yet or for many a day ....
Call it as it is
You like to sing the songs but a UI with the Nordies is going too far

[Rossfan]

Its all academic till said Nordies vote for it, which will happen... .but not yet.... many a day.
Probably 2040 at the earliest?.

[trileacman]

Its all academic till said Nordies vote for it, which will happen... .but not yet.... many a day.
Probably 2040 at the earliest?.

Agreed, the reality is that the Brits are keen to get rid of NI and the Free state is keen to take it. So really the Taioseach and the British PM have f**k all to do with stopping or encouraging a UI.

It really all boils down to the North's sectarian headcount.

[Armagh18]

Its all academic till said Nordies vote for it, which will happen... .but not yet.... many a day.
Probably 2040 at the earliest?.

Agreed, the reality is that the Brits are keen to get rid of NI and the Free state is keen to take it. So really the Taioseach and the British PM have f**k all to do with stopping or encouraging a UI.

It really all boils down to the North's sectarian headcount.

A Taioseach at least outlining the benefits of a UI to people north and south would obviously help but Meehole has no interest in that...

[Substandard]

You are talking about a 6 point difference in opinion polls now. The next LucidTalk in Feb 2026 will probably see a number of 47 to 43 - down to 4. It will be around 46-44 by 2027/8 and evens 2029/30.

A poll won't be called until it looks like a United Ireland will pass, so you will likely see the poll called in 2032 when UI takes the lead in polls with the border poll happening in 2034/35. I actually agree with Benn that GFA is very clear on when it should be called. The bigger question is is that based on opinion polls or election results.

Martin is wrong and a weak man for not being an advocate; Mary Lou is pushing for it too soon based on opinion polls.

Of course this could be all scuppered by fiercely nationalistic Reform taking power and not wanting to give up what they see as UK territory no matter how much the majority want out. Although they are also revenue focused and they will be happy to save the money and pump it into English towns instead.

I can't see Reform being a long-term prospect, and I doubt Farage is a long-term visionary beyond being an opportunistic grifter.  They have momentum because of two monumentally unpopular governments consecutively which has rendered traditional voting swings void.  It's all reactionary and rhetorical from them, a few at the top will make a killing and then it will all disintegrate.