All Ireland senior football final 2012 Donegal v Mayo

[ONeill]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

I think your own analysis lacked a bit of reasoning too. While I think Donegal will win I can certainly see reasons for hope in Mayo. For a start, Mayo are more than capable of matching Donegal in the middle third and most of the Mayo players here match up favourably with their Donegal counterparts. If Mayo can compete here then they have a great chance of winning. Secondly, they have a very good free taker in O'Connor so they are capable of staying in touch if they force frees from Donegal. Thirdly, while Donegal are very well organised, have some great players and are tough to beat due to their 'set up' they are not a markedly better set footballers than Mayo and Mayo will be organised too so I see this match as being up for grabs. Finally, an average Tyrone team ran them close which shows they can be beaten and Mayo will have had a lot of time to analyse what works against Donegal.

The only area I feel Mayo fall down on is their firepower, other than that they are a match for any team in the country, so if they bring their shooting boots they can definitely win. While some might say they've posted big scores I think it's been against poor opposition bar Dublin and the intensity of the Donegal defending will expose all but the best forwards and Mayo's aren't in the top bracket IMO. This is why I favour Donegal but I wouldn't rule out Mayo at all.

That's more like it. Tyrone weren't going to beat Donegal. We almost snatched a draw but chased the game when it really mattered. Donegal kept Tyrone at arm's length. O'Connor - he hasn't been as consistent as McFadden. In the Connacht final he was poor. I saw no 'organisation' in that Mayo side for 30 minutes in the AI SF.

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

What do you want us to give you? A detailed look at where the game will be lost and won? No matter what we say you will belittle us. We see ourselves as having a chance! We're not up our hole. No one here is saying we're the best ever. Remember Donegal like us are coming from a similar base and both of us should be treated with equal respect.

Ah Jaysus. Belittle? Thought you lads were made of sterner stuff.

Remember the ugly Sligo game when the Yeatsmen squeezed Mayo with no room atall behind their own 45, a sort of Donegal-lite?. Dillon was put under serious pressure by Sligo and his passing was abject. O'Connor's free taking was chronic. Varley tried to cheat his way by diving repeatedly. Moran and Aiden O'Shea saved them that day. Moran's gone.

[ONeill]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

Donegal tend to fade in the last 10 minutes.
The expectation of the Donegal fans will lead to too much pressure on the players.
Mayo have better forwards.
The pundits have got the last 4 matches in a row wrong.

Agree with all but the forwards.

R Bradley, L McLoone, M McHugh, P McBrearty, M Murphy, C McFadden.

v

K McLoughlin, J Doherty, A Dillon, E Varley, C O'Connor, M Conroy

[bucko]

A lot of the performance against Sligo was as much down to poor decision making in the scoring zone as it was to Sligo's defending. Going for goals when they really aren't on and an easy point was on offer is a prime example. If we'd taken the points instead of looking for the goal we'd have gone in 4-5 points up at half time. That's not including two fisted attempts at points that went across goal and the disallowed goal by Moran because of O'Connor's "illegal" hand pass. Altogether we created 27 scoring chances. While we're on the case of defences we kept a forward line that ripped Galway asunder in Salthill to 10 points from 15 scoring opportunities. As for our chances against Donegal, not letting ourselves to get sucked in by the system i.e not overcommit numbers to our attack, limit opportunities for Donegal to counter by making sure we kill the ball when we do go down their end and holding men back to try and break up or slow down the counter attack when it does come. Most importantly, not overconcentrating on Donegals system at the expense of what we do naturally and what has worked so far, as Cork did to their cost.

[From the Bunker]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

Donegal tend to fade in the last 10 minutes.
The expectation of the Donegal fans will lead to too much pressure on the players.
Mayo have better forwards.
The pundits have got the last 4 matches in a row wrong.

Agree with all but the forwards.

R Bradley, L McLoone, M McHugh, P McBrearty, M Murphy, C McFadden.

v

K McLoughlin, J Doherty, A Dillon, E Varley, C O'Connor, M Conroy

The three in Bold should hold their own. The other three are confidence players, if they get a good start they'll do ok.

[Zulu]

I'd take Mayo's half forward line over Donegal's but Donegal have a clear advantage in the full forward line.

I also thought Tyrone did quite well against Donegal and would entirely agree that they were kept at arms length. The lack of apparent organisation in the second half against dublin was largely due to all the injuries and even if it wasn't there is ample evidence Mayo are well organised and are working to a plan. This Mayo team are different but I do agree when you say Mayo's forwards will panic under Donegal's pressure. This will be the winning and losing of it for me. I think Donegal will force Mayo to use the ball poorly on occasions and I just don't see the quality of forward in Mayo to kick those 1 out of 100 type scores to keep Donegal down. If someone has that type of day though then Mayo could certainly win.

[ONeill]

A lot of the performance against Sligo was as much down to poor decision making in the scoring zone as it was to Sligo's defending. Going for goals when they really aren't on and an easy point was on offer is a prime example. If we'd taken the points instead of looking for the goal we'd have gone in 4-5 points up at half time. That's not including two fisted attempts at points that went across goal and the disallowed goal by Moran because of O'Connor's "illegal" hand pass. Altogether we created 27 scoring chances. While we're on the case of defences we kept a forward line that ripped Galway asunder in Salthill to 10 points from 15 scoring opportunities. As for our chances against Donegal, not letting ourselves to get sucked in by the system i.e not overcommit numbers to our attack, limit opportunities for Donegal to counter by making sure we kill the ball when we do go down their end and holding men back to try and break up or slow down the counter attack when it does come. Most importantly, not overconcentrating on Donegals system at the expense of what we do naturally and what has worked so far, as Cork did to their cost.

Are you recommending Mayo keep to a 6-2-6 as much as possible? If that's the case, it'll come down to Mayo's accuracy from distance if they are to have any chance as they'll have 12 marking 6-8. In a 70 minute game in Croker that'll take some dedication to stick to the gameplan when things aren't going your way on the scoreboard. It just takes 3-4 wides before players start committing more to attack in order to move it closer. It seems to happen time and time again against Donegal. They're happy with a low scoring game knowing the opposition will blink first. They simply invite you on. Then, with maybe 2 Donegal forwards on 3 Mayo defenders on the break the O'Donnell men have good odds.

[Chimley]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

You're not owed a justification for Mayo's chances by anyone here. Every poster can put their thoughts forward but these ramblings mean about as much as an analysis by Joe Brolly.
An AI final will take a course and in many cases, it is unexpected. All the forensics in advance regarding the merits of either team should be treated with suspicion and taken with a pinch of salt by anyone with any sense.
That's why finals are actually played. You're quite entitled to hold dogmatic views regarding the outcome but it's certainly not helpful to support that position by trying to belittle those who don't agree.

[Lar Naparka]

Can some fcuker from Mayo, just one, have a go and attempt to formulate a small tactical analysis as to how they can approach this and win it?

Who do you think will be your key men? Where are the Donegal weaknesses? What can you do that Kerry and Cork couldn't?

Even someone who isn't from Mayo but gives them a chance. And none of this cute hoorism of giving it a lash. McGuinness shites lashes.

Arra, since it's yerself that's asking, O'Neill, I'll try and oblige and if you don't mind I'll  skip the tactical analysis guff. As always, I prefer to go with the facts.
Mayo fans overdid the pre- match celebrations back in '96 and paid a heavy price. There was ne'er a sheep dog or lamp-post that wasn't molested in some way and everyone had mighty craic in the process but, unfortunately, the hypefest got in the way of the team's preparations and they paid a heavy price.
Who said so?
Well, apart from my good self, John Maughan did. In the lead up to the '97 final, John got the Mayo CB to issue a statement imploring fans to tone down their revelries so as to allow the team get on with their preparations with the minimum amount of distraction. To their credit, the fans did as they were asked and did the same in '04 and '06. (Okay, we still lost them f**king games but that's not the point.) 
Mayo fans don't forget the lessons to be learnt from their antics in '96.
Donegal followers don't have the benefit of hindsight as they rev up for the final. It's a done deal for many before the ball is thrown in. At least that's what my contacts from there tell me.

Apart from the benefit of being able to go about their preparations with a minimum of distraction, Mayo have a number of players  who have All Ireland experience already. Donegal have none.
Clarke, Higgins and Dillon have been there and so have Gardiner and McGarrity- both ready for action if called upon.
If composure under pressure counts for anything, Mayo should have an advantage there.
Donegal are an excellent team but perhaps they are not quite the finished article yet. Maybe, just maybe, they will fall victims to their  followers' hype and implode in a manner more associated with their opponents.
Impossible? Implausible? Ask John Maughan.
Of course they are favourites and so they should be. After all, they defeated the Troika to get to where they are now- one step away from immortality. But McGuinness, shrewd hoor that he is, will have noted that all of  the Big Three were  very much yesterday's men.
Tyrone were running on empty cylinders when they met Donegal and still managed to finish up only two points adrift.
Kerry lost by a similar margin and  anyone with a  sup of oil in his lamp would agree that the present Kingdom side is but a pale shadow of its recent self.
The langers in recent years just don't do All Ireland semi finals. Ask Mayo!
They could well have beaten Donegal in this year's one. If Colm O'Neill's goal effort at a crucial stage of the game had been just two inches lower or indeed higher, Cork could well be facing their nemesis once again.
Come to think of it, Donegal won each of the three games in question by a margin of just two points and in each one they were under serious pressure as the game came to an end.
In boxing parlance, Donegal won all three bouts on points. Not a KO in sight. Yet, their reputation for invincibility etc. etc. is based on the verdicts of those fights/games. 
Keep in mind also that their scoring returns in the aforementioned games were quite low. They scored 0-12 against Tyrone, 1-12  against Kerry and 0-16 against Cork.
Mayo just happen to have one of the meanest defensive setups in the business and I don't anticipate a flurry of flag waving at David Clarke's end.
Mayo, even without their most influential player, proceeded to tear Dublin to shreds for most of that game and still managed to withstand the onslaught in the final quarter and finished stronger than their opponents.
Many will say Mayo simply ran out of steam and let the Dubs back in but I'd say there were other contributory factors.  Horan  was forced to make an unusually high number of replacements, eight in all, and had to resort to re-introducing players who were quite clearly injured. It would be enough to put an ass off his oats but still Mayo managed to retain their composure and will be ready and rarin' to go next Sunday.
I lost no sleep before the Dublin match and I don't expect to get the jitters at any time before the next one. Que sera, sera and all that shite; if Jimmy Horan doesn't panic, I won't either.

[Zulu]

I'd take Mayo's half forward line over Donegal's but Donegal have a clear advantage in the full forward line.

You would? Donegal's half forward line are not orthodox forwards but they influence the game more than any other half forward line IMO. Mark McHugh (who I didn't rate until this year) and Ryan Bradley have been brilliant for Donegal.

I don't think any half forward line plays it in an orthodox way anymore. I'd agree that the boys you mentioned have been very good this year but I was referring to football ability. McHugh for example has been excellent in his role but I'm not sure he is an outstanding footballer whereas Dillion is. For me the Mayo lads are better but the opposite is the case when discussing the full forward lines.

[bucko]

A lot of the performance against Sligo was as much down to poor decision making in the scoring zone as it was to Sligo's defending. Going for goals when they really aren't on and an easy point was on offer is a prime example. If we'd taken the points instead of looking for the goal we'd have gone in 4-5 points up at half time. That's not including two fisted attempts at points that went across goal and the disallowed goal by Moran because of O'Connor's "illegal" hand pass. Altogether we created 27 scoring chances. While we're on the case of defences we kept a forward line that ripped Galway asunder in Salthill to 10 points from 15 scoring opportunities. As for our chances against Donegal, not letting ourselves to get sucked in by the system i.e not overcommit numbers to our attack, limit opportunities for Donegal to counter by making sure we kill the ball when we do go down their end and holding men back to try and break up or slow down the counter attack when it does come. Most importantly, not overconcentrating on Donegals system at the expense of what we do naturally and what has worked so far, as Cork did to their cost.

Are you recommending Mayo keep to a 6-2-6 as much as possible? If that's the case, it'll come down to Mayo's accuracy from distance if they are to have any chance as they'll have 12 marking 6-8. In a 70 minute game in Croker that'll take some dedication to stick to the gameplan when things aren't going your way on the scoreboard. It just takes 3-4 wides before players start committing more to attack in order to move it closer. It seems to happen time and time again against Donegal. They're happy with a low scoring game knowing the opposition will blink first. They simply invite you on. Then, with maybe 2 Donegal forwards on 3 Mayo defenders on the break the O'Donnell men have good odds.

The bit in bold is the key, if we do that we have a good chance, if we don't we're f**ked, simple as that. Donegal's system is about drawing in as much of the opposition as possible with the defensive aspect, forcing the opposition to work harder on the ball which is physically and mentally draining while also creating space for the counter. The two standout features of the semi v Cork for me were 1/the amount of passes Cork made and 2/the vast open spaces that Donegal broke into with Cork players having to repeatedly chase back. Basically the aim is to dictate the game with and without the ball. Deny them that and you're in with a shout. Easier said than done tho!!

[blast05]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

Match-ups
Keith Higgins kept Colm McFadden quite in the league game. He can do the same again
Ger Cafferey has kept the Sligo FF (whose name escapes me) quiet in the Connact final after the Sligo guy shot the lights out off Finian Hanley in their game v Galway. Same with Benny Coulter and same with Bernard Brogan. He can do the same v Michael Murphy. I could go on.
Lee Keegan on Mark McHugh .... i'm salivating at the prospect. Keegan is 1 of those players that - as per earlier discussions - is an unknown on the national stage. Not in the eyes of Mayo supporters he is not 

Tactics
Kick-passing .... one thing that i did not pick up in during the Dublin game until i watched it later on TV was the superb quality of the Mayos kick-passing. Our usual game was a half running game and half long ball into Andy Moran. I was expecting more emphasis on the running game in the absence of Andy but it was all high quality kick-passing. Kicking the ball forward trumps a mass movement back of half forward line, half backline & midfield all day long.
Counter-acting Donegals kickouts .... we have shown we could do against Cluxtons kickouts twice this year. I expect the same re Donegals kickouts
The Donegal diamond .... when they get the bodies back they defend in a diamond type formation. If Mayo can replicate the long range point scoring as per the game v the Dubs then the diamond will not work.
The challenge game after the league game .... Donegal destroyed us in the league (we were flat, they were psyched). A challenge was played a month or so later in Balla with Donegal having a strong lineout. Mayo got their measure that day and hit goals to boot. I'll say no more about that game 

Psychology
McGuinness may have a master degree in this but its all about the players. Mayo are undoubtedly mentally tougher than in the past (we have beaten Dublin, Down and Kerry in knock-out games of football in Croke Park this year) and in my view there is certainly no advantage to Donegal here to say the least.
Absolutely the build up to the final will effect some players. The 'good' thing in Mayo is we have buckets of experience on this and i am confident that it will on balance have less of an effect on Mayo

Gut feeling
Aidan O'Shea was the best player in the country in Feb/March until he got injured. He is working back towards that level and i expect he could dominate the game as for example our round robin league game v Kerry in Killarney.
Donegal have peaked already ... sports science suggests you can hit a physical peak of performance for a 6 week window in a 52 week year (so perhaps this is more than gut feeling !!). Donegal are well beyond the 6 week period and thus it would surprise me if they are able to deliver the intensity of performance they have in their last few games. Mayos path to the final has allowed us to only need to peak from early August.

AOB
No one could have expected Mayo to be 10 points up v Dublin with such quality kick passing and all the forwards getting in on the act. So we can analyse it all we like but no one will analyse it correctly. There will be some unexpected star, perhaps a flood of goals (Meath Dublin Leinster final a few years ago), Donegal play flat (a la Mayo in 1997), Mayo leave their shooting boots in the dressing room, an early red card (Liam McHale '96 replay!!), Karl Lacey gets injured, a shocking game changing ref decision, etc, etc.... the joyous unpredictability of sport !

And finally, a few stats/fact from the Mayo 'demise' v Dublin.
- Dublins purple patch was for 14 minutes from the 51st minute to the 65th, i.e.: when they went from 10 down to 2 down. There was 11 minutes played from there on and Mayo won that phase of the game 2 pts to 1.
- The common thinking re the Mayo demise during that Dublin purple patch was that we were wiped at midfield. Of the 8 kickouts from the Dublin scores, Mayo won possession from 5 of them.
- I think the reason for the blip was the absence of Kevin McLoughlin, a drop in the quality of our kick passing and our forward line not making the effort to get free to the degree they did earlier in the game

[ONeill]

So that's a no then. Not one poster can give some form of reasoning. Some shower

You're not owed a justification for Mayo's chances by anyone here. Every poster can put their thoughts forward but these ramblings mean about as much as an analysis by Joe Brolly.
An AI final will take a course and in many cases, it is unexpected. All the forensics in advance regarding the merits of either team should be treated with suspicion and taken with a pinch of salt by anyone with any sense.
That's why finals are actually played. You're quite entitled to hold dogmatic views regarding the outcome but it's certainly not helpful to support that position by trying to belittle those who don't agree.

Where's the belittling?

So, a gaa discussion board should just twiddle its thumbs with banality until it's over? Of course pre-match predictions and quasi-analysis means nothing but sure isn't it a bit of craic. I'd rather discuss matters with someone willing to put their neck on the line. We all know anything can happen. Sure I've read Samson.

Can some fcuker from Mayo, just one, have a go and attempt to formulate a small tactical analysis as to how they can approach this and win it?

Who do you think will be your key men? Where are the Donegal weaknesses? What can you do that Kerry and Cork couldn't?

Even someone who isn't from Mayo but gives them a chance. And none of this cute hoorism of giving it a lash. McGuinness shites lashes.

Arra, since it's yerself that's asking, O'Neill, I'll try and oblige and if you don't mind I'll  skip the tactical analysis guff. As always, I prefer to go with the facts.
Mayo fans overdid the pre- match celebrations back in '96 and paid a heavy price. There was ne'er a sheep dog or lamp-post that wasn't molested in some way and everyone had mighty craic in the process but, unfortunately, the hypefest got in the way of the team's preparations and they paid a heavy price.
Who said so?
Well, apart from my good self, John Maughan did. In the lead up to the '97 final, John got the Mayo CB to issue a statement imploring fans to tone down their revelries so as to allow the team get on with their preparations with the minimum amount of distraction. To their credit, the fans did as they were asked and did the same in '04 and '06. (Okay, we still lost them f**king games but that's not the point.) 
Mayo fans don't forget the lessons to be learnt from their antics in '96.
Donegal followers don't have the benefit of hindsight as they rev up for the final. It's a done deal for many before the ball is thrown in. At least that's what my contacts from there tell me.

Apart from the benefit of being able to go about their preparations with a minimum of distraction, Mayo have a number of players  who have All Ireland experience already. Donegal have none.
Clarke, Higgins and Dillon have been there and so have Gardiner and McGarrity- both ready for action if called upon.
If composure under pressure counts for anything, Mayo should have an advantage there.
Donegal are an excellent team but perhaps they are not quite the finished article yet. Maybe, just maybe, they will fall victims to their  followers' hype and implode in a manner more associated with their opponents.
Impossible? Implausible? Ask John Maughan.
Of course they are favourites and so they should be. After all, they defeated the Troika to get to where they are now- one step away from immortality. But McGuinness, shrewd hoor that he is, will have noted that all of  the Big Three were  very much yesterday's men.
Tyrone were running on empty cylinders when they met Donegal and still managed to finish up only two points adrift.
Kerry lost by a similar margin and  anyone with a  sup of oil in his lamp would agree that the present Kingdom side is but a pale shadow of its recent self.
The langers in recent years just don't do All Ireland semi finals. Ask Mayo!
They could well have beaten Donegal in this year's one. If Colm O'Neill's goal effort at a crucial stage of the game had been just two inches lower or indeed higher, Cork could well be facing their nemesis once again.
Come to think of it, Donegal won each of the three games in question by a margin of just two points and in each one they were under serious pressure as the game came to an end.
In boxing parlance, Donegal won all three bouts on points. Not a KO in sight. Yet, their reputation for invincibility etc. etc. is based on the verdicts of those fights/games. 
Keep in mind also that their scoring returns in the aforementioned games were quite low. They scored 0-12 against Tyrone, 1-12  against Kerry and 0-16 against Cork.
Mayo just happen to have one of the meanest defensive setups in the business and I don't anticipate a flurry of flag waving at David Clarke's end.
Mayo, even without their most influential player, proceeded to tear Dublin to shreds for most of that game and still managed to withstand the onslaught in the final quarter and finished stronger than their opponents.
Many will say Mayo simply ran out of steam and let the Dubs back in but I'd say there were other contributory factors.  Horan  was forced to make an unusually high number of replacements, eight in all, and had to resort to re-introducing players who were quite clearly injured. It would be enough to put an ass off his oats but still Mayo managed to retain their composure and will be ready and rarin' to go next Sunday.
I lost no sleep before the Dublin match and I don't expect to get the jitters at any time before the next one. Que sera, sera and all that shite; if Jimmy Horan doesn't panic, I won't either.

Excellent. One point - Mayo's meanest defence -  in the All-Ireland series - 2-9 and 0-16 against. That 0-16 also included 2 great goal chances for the opposition. Outside of their provincial run (Leitrim and Sligo) I don't buy that. In the league 0-17 against Donegal, 1-13 against Down, 0-14 against Cork, 1-12 against Kerry, 2-10 against Coark again. Seems average.

[Farrandeelin]

Yes ONeill. We conceded 2-9 to Down. 1-0 of that in injury time. Wise the f**k up FFS.

[moysider]

The worst thing is I'd love to see Mayo win the feckin thing most years but I'll hopefully be in the ground screaming me bollox off for Donegal.

Yip, fair play to ye. Certainly look after ye re provincial cousins and no problem with that. But lots of ye boys can t see any merit beyond.

[ONeill]

Yes ONeill. We conceded 2-9 to Down. 1-0 of that in injury time. Wise the f**k up FFS.

73rd minute is the same as the 21st minute. It still counts. That's why I don't accept the Donegal defence that their late looseness is because games are won by then. It shows a lack of concentration.