The Battle for Fermanagh and South Tyrone

[Maguire01]

Unionists are hardly puttind bread and butter issues first as they are horrified at the idea of  a Sinn Fein first minister and contrived that pact in F-ST

They definitely aren't, but two wrongs and all that...

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

I understand that most SF voters wouldn't be put off by claims that Gerry Adams was I'm the IRA, though I thought that specific stories, such as linking him with Jean McConville, may have had some impact. Such individual cases can often remove the rose-tinted glasses many wear when recalling the campaign.

I also thought that his reported inaction regarding his brother - that he reportedly did little to stop him working where he did in his constituency, would have had some affect.

It makes me wonder - Bertie was the Teflon Taoiseach - what would Adams have to do for the voters of West Belfast to turn the way they did in the East of the city?

Maguire just accept it, the people of West Belfast trust Gerry on his performance, as do the people of West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, FST, Newry & Armagh trust their representatives. I'll not go into the other constituancies as it's like rubbing salt into... You can spout the same auld shite that the stoops have been spouting but it won't change the results.
Suck an applejack and move on.

[Maguire01]

It was a Westminster vote, not a border poll, so your contention that they can't be unionists/loyalists is nonsensical (or how much greater an achievement it would be had he 'converted' them) -- and you doubt the veractiy of his claims if you like, but he did emphasise that he was talking about relatively few voters; but (even) one or two would be significant.

There is no way of really knowing that there aren't just a few 'nationalists' stuck in a Unionist ward.

At the same time, it's funny how SF attracting Unionist or Protestant voters is so significant and an endorsement of SF, yet when the SDLP attract such votes, it's a matter of ridicule by many of the same SF voters.

[Maguire01]

Maguire just accept it, the people of West Belfast trust Gerry on his performance, as do the people of West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, FST, Newry & Armagh trust their representatives. I'll not go into the other constituancies as it's like rubbing salt into... You can spout the same auld shite that the stoops have been spouting but it won't change the results.
Suck an applejack and move on.

The usual mature response. I was only asking the question. I'm not sure what Gerry has delivered for West Belfast. I have no desire to change the outcome of the democratic outcome - I'm just interested to know the motivation of the WB voters, given what happened in the East. There's no need to be so sensitive.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Maguire just accept it, the people of West Belfast trust Gerry on his performance, as do the people of West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, FST, Newry & Armagh trust their representatives. I'll not go into the other constituancies as it's like rubbing salt into... You can spout the same auld shite that the stoops have been spouting but it won't change the results.
Suck an applejack and move on.

The usual mature response.  I was only asking the question. I'm not sure what Gerry has delivered for West Belfast. I have no desire to change the outcome of the democratic outcome - I'm just interested to know the motivation of the WB voters, given what happened in the East. There's no need to be so sensitive.

Well you have no "agenda" then! 

[magickingdom]

Ritchie is uncommonly uncharismatic for a politician, but she doesn't take people for fools as Adams does when he expects us to believe that he was never in the IRA.

Even after 30 years of bringing this up some people will never realise it doesn't harm Adams or SF.

That's because republicans would give their vote to a ham sandwich, providing it came wrapped in a tricolour and kept a unionist from taking the seat.

Very condescending comment, Myles. Are you saying 26% of the north's voting population are idiots? What is wrong with keeping a unionist out? The whole point of being a republican is to strive for a united Ireland.

That question has been settled, at least in the medium term. No change to the north's position without the consent of the people living there. Anyone think the unionists look like signing up to a united Ireland any time soon? No? Fair enough. Can we get on with ordinary bread and butter politics then, and come back to the constitutional issue in 30 or 40 years?

there are lies damn lies and statistics but the trend in the graph here is fairly clear

http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/gallsum.htm

1983 17 mps 15 unionists 2 nationalists

2010 18 mps 9 unionists 8 nationalists 1 alliance

the next 20 to 30 years will be interesting

[Zapatista]

I understand that most SF voters wouldn't be put off by claims that Gerry Adams was I'm the IRA, though I thought that specific stories, such as linking him with Jean McConville, may have had some impact. Such individual cases can often remove the rose-tinted glasses many wear when recalling the campaign.

I doubt it. Either he was in the IRA or he wasn't. They either dislike him for it or they support him for it. Individual cases (especially when they are 'allegations andd claims') would have no impact. I'd imagine most voters in WB realise the context of war.

I also thought that his reported inaction regarding his brother - that he reportedly did little to stop him working where he did in his constituency, would have had some affect.

More stuff reported on ADams the IRA man.

It makes me wonder - Bertie was the Teflon Taoiseach - what would Adams have to do for the voters of West Belfast to turn the way they did in the East of the city?

The two are not comparable. Adams delivers while Ahern takes. If Adams started taking then it might change voters minds.

[Maguire01]

there are lies damn lies and statistics but the trend in the graph here is fairly clear

http://www.ark.ac.uk/elections/gallsum.htm

1983 17 mps 15 unionists 2 nationalists

2010 18 mps 9 unionists 8 nationalists 1 alliance

the next 20 to 30 years will be interesting

Yes, although the only vote that really matters is a border poll. It wouldn't matter if all 18 MPs were Nationalist if Unionists still accounted for over 50%.

Also, many SF supporters on here have called the SDLP 'another Unionist party' and they generally refer to Alliance in the same way. As such, I'm sure they'll be consistent and say that there are only 5 nationalist MPs and nationalists only attract c.26% of the vote.

But yes, there's no denying the shift. And I reckon you're closer to the truth on the timeframe than many would like to believe.

[Zapatista]

Also, many SF supporters on here have called the SDLP 'another Unionist party' and they generally refer to Alliance in the same way. As such, I'm sure they'll be consistent and say that there are only 5 nationalist MPs and nationalists only attract c.26% of the vote.

A referendum can't be predicted on those statistics. The SDLP are a Unionist party. It not an ideology they chose it's just something the don't care to challenge. Unionism is the default position in the north and the SDLP are happy with the default position. If the north was a Republic the SDLP would probably be happy with that too. Much like the parties in the south the SDLP are inactive Unionists.

[armaghniac]

You can also argue that Sinn Fein is a Unionist party. It supports the continued existence of the Union.

[ziggysego]

You can also argue that Sinn Fein is a Unionist party. It supports the continued existence of the Union.

You can argue that Unionist are Nationalists, as they turned away from a UUP/Tory alliance, thus strengthening the union.

[Zapatista]

You can also argue that Sinn Fein is a Unionist party. It supports the continued existence of the Union.

Now you're being silly.

[Maguire01]

You can also argue that Sinn Fein is a Unionist party. It supports the continued existence of the Union.

Now you're being silly.

Did they not support the GFA? In that respect, they're no different to the SDLP.

[Maguire01]

Also, many SF supporters on here have called the SDLP 'another Unionist party' and they generally refer to Alliance in the same way. As such, I'm sure they'll be consistent and say that there are only 5 nationalist MPs and nationalists only attract c.26% of the vote.

A referendum can't be predicted on those statistics.

So what stats would you use?

[Zapatista]

Did they not support the GFA? In that respect, they're no different to the SDLP.

Yes they did support it. In what respect? That they both supported the GFA? That's that broad it has no meaning.