Tory, UUP and DUP voting alliance!

[delboy]

Threre is going to be a nationalist majority within ten years

If you really believe that, then you shouldn't be wasting your time on GAAboard, Donagh Ulick. You should be scraping together every last penny and touring the country's Betting Shops for the best odds; for if you're right, the odds are only going to get shorter as we get nearer the hallowed date.

Or better still, why not try one of those matched betting websites? You'd get a very good price from a certain Prof. Brendan O'Leary, widely recognised as a leading authority on electoral analysis etc (as well as being no friend of the Union, to put it mildly!).

Indeed he was a keynote speaker at a series of SF Conferences on Irish Unity in the USA last summer. Unfortunately for SF, however, these took place just after the EU Elections, whose results in NI caused Prof. O'Leary to revise his prognosis for Irish Unity, on the basis that the Nationalist vote in NI has now peaked (at a little over 40%).

Consequently, he is no longer forecasting a simple United Ireland, since he does not foresee that occurring "in the foreseeable future" (Irish Times report) or "any time before 2023 (at least)" (Irish Echo). Instead, he proposes campaigning for some sort of federation, even including one which might preserve the current failed sectarian statelet 6 county Northern Ireland!

Anyhow, SF obviously tried to suppress this heresy, excising all mention of it eg on An Phoblacht. However, some sources picked up on it, including the Irish Echo, as follows (my emphasis):


http://www.irishecho.com/newspaper/story.cfm?id=19375
'Professor Brendan O'Leary of the University of Pennsylvania said that the issue of unity would require extensive public debate and analysis that would take a long time.

But the process, he said, was an "honorable" one for which there was "no violent road." O'Leary spoke of the much vaunted demography of the North and played up the potential importance of immigration there, especially by "Polish Catholics with UK passports."

He did not think that, as per some predictions, there would be a nationalist majority by 2023 and he was of the view that the gains by nationalists in the overall population of the North had likely flattened out.

There was, he said, "no quick victory" for Irish nationalism "through the cradle."

As such, a "substantial portion of unionists and Protestants" needed to be converted to the idea of a united Ireland. In this regard the growing secularism on the island in general was diminishing old arguments against unity such as the "Rome rule" one.

Rome rule, he quipped, was no longer the rule of the Vatican but "the Rome of the pagans."

O'Leary introduced something that perhaps many at the forum were thinking about in the backs of their minds rather than in their foremost thoughts and that was federalism. There were, he said "practical and principled" reasons to advocate a federal Ireland.

O'Leary argued that the "population explosion" in the South stood to give the North much less clout in a united Ireland than once would have been the case.

A federal Ireland, he said, would dilute this effect. Such a federation would not necessarily be based on the historical four provinces but a two unit federation between the existing six county North and the South which, he said, could break into smaller units if it so desired'

http://www.polisci.upenn.edu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=73
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brendan_O'Leary

EG, if you put your point to me in a logical and accessible manner I'll be only to happy to reply. However these juvenile ramblings which mix personal abuse with ill thought out comments based on cut and paste jobs from the Internet are incoherent to most people on here. Now take a deep breath, slow down and try again. What exactly is it that you would like to say to me?

Perfectly coherent i thought and seemingly very relevant to the issue he was addressing, or have i missed something 

[red hander]

This doesn't surprise me one bit. I have said it all along, Britain will never give up this place but it will continue to run its PR bullshit to keep us kind hearted nationalists happy. Anyone who thinks there will be a United Ireland by peaceful means needs there head examined. The south is leaderless I have no doubt the British government could buy & sell Cowan as he just doesn't cut it as a leader. Its hard to say it but war is the only way a United Ireland will come about, but that won't happen anytime soon. This place is a bomb waiting to explode

Not a big fan of democracy, then?

I don't think people on this board require any lessons or lectures on democracy from unionists

[Fiodoir Ard Mhacha]

I'm not entirely convinced 'us' will out-breed 'them', and I know of too many 'Catholics'/Nationalists etc who just don't bother going out to vote - they're not all Harry Enfield slob characters; just tired, totally fed up with the lack of progress, if that's what it's called, to a UI, and therefore can't be bothered voting for two failed republican parties.

And I can't see the ethnic minorities jumping on any nationalist voting frenzy.  I want a UI as much as the best of them, but perhaps I too have been wearing the old rosey specs for too long. I'll probably vote in the GE but I really don't know why, and what, if anything, I (or 'my people') will get out of it.  But I'm sure some unionist pact will be concocted to win back Belfast South and Fermanagh/South Tyrone, if only a) to reinforce some perceived comfortable majority rule position and, more ominously, b) to prop up a disgusting régime led by that odious Cameron character.

[magickingdom]

This doesn't surprise me one bit. I have said it all along, Britain will never give up this place but it will continue to run its PR bullshit to keep us kind hearted nationalists happy. Anyone who thinks there will be a United Ireland by peaceful means needs there head examined. The south is leaderless I have no doubt the British government could buy & sell Cowan as he just doesn't cut it as a leader. Its hard to say it but war is the only way a United Ireland will come about, but that won't happen anytime soon. This place is a bomb waiting to explode

Not a big fan of democracy, then?

when democracy didnt suit your granda what did he do next? fockin cheek

[Ulick]

If I didn't know better, Donagh Ulick, I'd say your allegation* that my above post lacks "logic" or "accessibility" and was "juvenile" or "rambling", as well as "personally abusive" and "incoherent" etc, was an attempt to avoid answering what was a pretty obvious and simple question.

Namely, how do you back up your contention that there will be "a nationalist majority [in NI] within 10 years", against Prof. O'Leary's recent argument that there will be no such thing?

Simple enough for you? 


* - I would ask for some sort of substance to support your allegations, except that that would no doubt serve only to allow you to go on avoiding the main question...

That's better, see now it didn't hurt.

Of course I was rather clumsy with my phraseology there. Being more specific what I meant to say was that I'm confident there will be more nationalist voters than unionist voters within 10 years.

Now on another thread, you accused me of conducting a groundless smeer campaign or something against Suzanne Breen. Since I went to the bother of replying to you twice over there and have been waiting patiently for your response I expect you'll be addressing that quite soon.

I'll even provide a link for your convenience:

http://gaaboard.com/board/index.php?topic=14886.270

[Ulick]

I'm not entirely convinced 'us' will out-breed 'them', and I know of too many 'Catholics'/Nationalists etc who just don't bother going out to vote - they're not all Harry Enfield slob characters; just tired, totally fed up with the lack of progress, if that's what it's called, to a UI, and therefore can't be bothered voting for two failed republican parties.

And I can't see the ethnic minorities jumping on any nationalist voting frenzy.  I want a UI as much as the best of them, but perhaps I too have been wearing the old rosey specs for too long. I'll probably vote in the GE but I really don't know why, and what, if anything, I (or 'my people') will get out of it.  But I'm sure some unionist pact will be concocted to win back Belfast South and Fermanagh/South Tyrone, if only a) to reinforce some perceived comfortable majority rule position and, more ominously, b) to prop up a disgusting régime led by that odious Cameron character.

FAM you don't even have to out-breed 'them' as 'they' are dying faster.

If you are not convinced, spend a few hours here:

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/search/label/Demography


Particulary:

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/11/electoral-registration.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/09/fertility-rates-by-council-area.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/07/twilight-of-unionist-plurality.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/07/2008-balance-sheet.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/04/grim-reaper-again.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/02/schools-census-2008-2009.html

[Tony Baloney]

I'm not entirely convinced 'us' will out-breed 'them', and I know of too many 'Catholics'/Nationalists etc who just don't bother going out to vote - they're not all Harry Enfield slob characters; just tired, totally fed up with the lack of progress, if that's what it's called, to a UI, and therefore can't be bothered voting for two failed republican parties.

And I can't see the ethnic minorities jumping on any nationalist voting frenzy.  I want a UI as much as the best of them, but perhaps I too have been wearing the old rosey specs for too long. I'll probably vote in the GE but I really don't know why, and what, if anything, I (or 'my people') will get out of it.  But I'm sure some unionist pact will be concocted to win back Belfast South and Fermanagh/South Tyrone, if only a) to reinforce some perceived comfortable majority rule position and, more ominously, b) to prop up a disgusting régime led by that odious Cameron character.

FAM you don't even have to out-breed 'them' as 'they' are dying faster.

If you are not convinced, spend a few hours here:

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/search/label/Demography


Particulary:

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/11/electoral-registration.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/09/fertility-rates-by-council-area.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/07/twilight-of-unionist-plurality.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/07/2008-balance-sheet.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/04/grim-reaper-again.html

http://ulstersdoomed.blogspot.com/2009/02/schools-census-2008-2009.html

Do you tell the Prods "tough shit" in the event that the wee six get
subsumed, or do you make concessions to make them feel at home and keep them from hiking up their AK47s?

If the 26 keep going on the way they are maybe Stormont will
be model of effective and accountable governance!

[Zapatista]

It's foolish to expect anything of an electorate that far in the future.

It's also madness for to hope for a population swing to produce a UI. If it does happen and lead to a majority who want a UI we will face more problems than we have now. As with the creation of any new country there are many different opinions as what that country should be and how it should be run. This could end up dividing the Irish people even futher.

We need to try and unite all the people of the Island as best we can and build the idea of a shared future. Anything else has already failed.

[ardmhachaabu]

It's foolish to expect anything of an electorate that far in the future.

It's also madness for to hope for a population swing to produce a UI. If it does happen and lead to a majority who want a UI we will face more problems than we have now. As with the creation of any new country there are many different opinions as what that country should be and how it should be run. This could end up dividing the Irish people even futher.

We need to try and unite all the people of the Island as best we can and build the idea of a shared future. Anything else has already failed.

Spot on

[Tony Baloney]

It's foolish to expect anything of an electorate that far in the future.

It's also madness for to hope for a population swing to produce a UI. If it does happen and lead to a majority who want a UI we will face more problems than we have now. As with the creation of any new country there are many different opinions as what that country should be and how it should be run. This could end up dividing the Irish people even futher.

We need to try and unite all the people of the Island as best we can and build the idea of a shared future. Anything else has already failed.

Nice words but how do you convince several hundred thousand people who have had Britishness, Protestantism, unionisism, loyalism and anti-irishness ingrained in their psyche and culture that they would be better in a 32 county predominantly Catholic Ireland and that their beliefs and cultures will be respected.

[Zapatista]

Nice words but how do you convince several hundred thousand people who have had Britishness, Protestantism, unionisism, loyalism and anti-irishness ingrained in their psyche and culture that they would be better in a 32 county predominantly Catholic Ireland and that their beliefs and cultures will be respected.

Talk about creating an obstacle.

That's might have been a problem 90 years ago but any observant of Ireland and Europe today will see that it is hardly a threat now.

[longrunsthefox]

Noble aspiration Zap but you will find there are  a lot of castle Catholics don't want a united Ireland... sadly it ain't even close. 

[Tony Baloney]

Nice words but how do you convince several hundred thousand people who have had Britishness, Protestantism, unionisism, loyalism and anti-irishness ingrained in their psyche and culture that they would be better in a 32 county predominantly Catholic Ireland and that their beliefs and cultures will be respected.

Talk about creating an obstacle.

That's might have been a problem 90 years ago but any observant of Ireland and Europe today will see that it is hardly a threat now.

You obviously don't consort with many prods.

[ardmhachaabu]

Noble aspiration Zap but you will find there are  a lot of castle Catholics don't want a united Ireland... sadly it ain't even close.

fox you hit the nail on the head, the numbers game will maintain the status quo for a long time to come

[Zapatista]

Noble aspiration Zap but you will find there are  a lot of castle Catholics don't want a united Ireland... sadly it ain't even close.

I'm know that only too well fox. For the sake of the argument I presumed a UI. I also include castle cathoilcs as a possible group with a strong opinion in the way any future UI might exist. Equllay as i do republicans and nationalist.

Can you be more clear Tony? What would you call consorting and what would you consider as 'many prods'?