The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[T Fearon]

The election proved once again that there are more prods in taigs in the six counties, what a surprise.

Nevertheless if Jwin Wallister's Traditional Unionst Voice (aka "we can't stand a fenian and won't have one about the place") stands in the next six county assembly elections, it should result in Martin Mc Guinness becoming First Minister, and for me that would  be as good as, if not better, than  partition ending

PS Its the first time my first preference  vote went to a candidate that actually topped the poll, so it was a landmark election for me personally

[Donagh]

Well obviuously the 'trend' is that greenies tend to be nationalist but that they think hugging trees is more important than a united ireland  

delboy what it means is that the 'Castle Kethlics' aren't going to save unionism from the inevitable, nor will the hope that all those Alliance voters will swing in behind unionism.

Maguire, sorry of course you're right, I overlooked that and just lumped the SDLP transfers in the SF but forgot had already went over quota.


The final figures from yesterday after transfers were 52.3% for unionism and 46.1% for nationalism and 1.6% non-transferable. This was marginally better for unionism as their turnout didn't drop as much as did it within nationalist areas, but that could be down to the Allistair factor of livening things up. A the turnout was so low, I doubt there is anything we can read into the figures except that the gap continues to close. A 2.5% swing from one side to the other will exceed the 50%+1 requirement of the GFA - the EU poll being 'cleaner' due to the non-involvement of independents. That is very achievable within a decade.  

Tell me, Donagh, were you far into your (post-Election) "United Ireland by 2016" Victory Speech before Monday's results caused you to have to tear it up and start again?  

And as for your present attempt at "whistling past the graveyard" to keep your own spirits up, are you really managing to kid yourself, because it sure as Hell isn't fooling the rest of us?

For you can spoof all you like eg about the relative drop in Nationalist turnout being greater since 2004, or about Colin Duffy's standing increasing the Nationalist vote, or about Green Party transfers ya-di-ya-di-ya, but none of it conceals the essential facts.

Namely, this was an Election where the 2 Nat Parties fielded sound candidates, with genuine aspirations of both getting returned. Whereas Unionism was more split than it has been in years. Meanwhile, the largest Unionist Party fielded an utterly hopeless candidate, even though mired in Expenses/Double Jobbing controversy, and the UUP were experimenting with a new Conservative Alliance, which is clearly a matter of contention amongst its supporters. And in the Election itself, it is undeniable that turnout was lower in traditionally Unionist areas than in their Nationalist counterparts.

So remind me how did the results pan out again? Well in 2004, SF/SDLP gained 42.2% of the 1st Preference vote. And even if you include Eamonn McCann's vote as Nationalist, that still only brings it up to 43.8%. Whereas the combined DUP/UUP vote was 48.5%. As for the remaining 7.5% Independent/Green vote, their transfers at the 3rd count to the remaining UUP and SDLP candidates reflected the overall Unionist/Nationalist split.

Compare that with 2009. SF/SDLP took an identical 42.2% of the 1st preference votes, whereas the DUP/UUP/TUV combined total was higher than 2004, at 49.9%. Meanwhile, the 3rd count transfers from Alliance and Greens was 16,325 to the SDLP, but 18,590 to DUP/UUP/TUV, so at the very least we can say that Alliance voters reflect the current Unionist/Nationalist split*. (This despite Alban McGuinness's personal credibility/appeal far outweighing that of the 3 Unionist candidates, btw).

All of which goes to show that despite the circumstances in 2009 being notably more favourable for Nationalism vis-a-vis Unionism than in 2004, not only did the Nationalist vote fail to rise, but if anything, it actually fell. And at the same time, the Unionist vote actually rose slightly.

So much for the inexorability of your "1% per annum rise in the Catholic birthrate", which was going to see us all off some time in the near future!  


* - Don't forget that Alliance are a (self-defined) Unionist party, in that they are so registered at Stormont and support the constitutional status quo; therefore if their 5.5% were counted as Unionist votes, it would take the overall 2009 Unionist vote up to 54.5%.  

For once I did actually read your post and everything contained within are answered and refuted by my previous posts re the differential turnout. Oh and don't be putting quotes around phrases in some sort of pretence that you are quoting me - I said nothing of the sort. 

Edit: Alliance are not designated as unionist at Stormont, they are designated "others". But that's irrrelevant, if you see my previous posts I was referring to their transfers from the misguided souls that give them a vote.

[ziggysego]

Nevertheless if Jwin Wallister's Traditional Unionst Voice (aka "we can't stand a fenian and won't have one about the place") stands in the next six county assembly elections, it should result in Martin Mc Guinness becoming First Minister, and for me that would  be as good as, if not better, than  partition ending

1) No differences between First Minister and Deputy First Minister, they both have equal authority. The Deputy title was just added to placate the Unionist politicians and to pretend there was an distinction between the two offices.

2) You'd rather Sinn Fein top the poll, than an end to partition? Fair enough, but I'd rather see a 32 county Irish Republic.

[longrunsthefox]

31 Ziggy- you don't really want to keep Fermanagh do you? 

[Maguire01]

1) No differences between First Minister and Deputy First Minister, they both have equal authority. The Deputy title was just added to placate the Unionist politicians and to pretend there was an distinction between the two offices.

Yes, that's true... but just watch the reaction from the DUP should that happen. It wouldn't surprise me if they walked. They wanted Deputy in the title so that a Nationalist politician would be their Deputy; as such they would then be the Deputy for a SF First Minister.

[delboy]

The election proved once again that there are more prods in taigs in the six counties, what a surprise.

Nevertheless if Jwin Wallister's Traditional Unionst Voice (aka "we can't stand a fenian and won't have one about the place") stands in the next six county assembly elections, it should result in Martin Mc Guinness becoming First Minister, and for me that would  be as good as, if not better, than  partition ending

PS Its the first time my first preference  vote went to a candidate that actually topped the poll, so it was a landmark election for me personally

I must say you're easily pleased.

[Roger]

The election proved once again that there are more prods in taigs in the six counties, what a surprise.

Nevertheless if Jwin Wallister's Traditional Unionst Voice (aka "we can't stand a fenian and won't have one about the place") stands in the next six county assembly elections, it should result in Martin Mc Guinness becoming First Minister, and for me that would  be as good as, if not better, than  partition ending

PS Its the first time my first preference  vote went to a candidate that actually topped the poll, so it was a landmark election for me personally

I must say you're easily pleased.

Indeed.  It's a case of anything that might be more anti-Prod/Unionist is preferred to anything that might be considered positive.  Infantile and mindless bigotry.

[tyrone86]

Indeed.  It's a case of anything that might be more anti-Prod/Unionist is preferred to anything that might be considered positive.  Infantile and mindless bigotry.

Considering the DUP's attitude in government to anything that is perceived to be on the Nationalist/Republican agenda is exactly the same,   it is merely a case of "monkey see, monkey do"

[Hound]

I thought any surpluses were also transferred - what happened SF's extra 5,000 odd votes?

There was no need to transfer SF's surplus as at no stage would 5,000 extra votes have changed anything (i.e. those eliminated were always more than 5,000 behind those who made the next stage).

[magickingdom]

And in the Election itself, it is undeniable that turnout was lower in traditionally Unionist areas than in their Nationalist counterparts.


* - Don't forget that Alliance are a (self-defined) Unionist party, in that they are so registered at Stormont and support the constitutional status quo; therefore if their 5.5% were counted as Unionist votes, it would take the overall 2009 Unionist vote up to 54.5%.  

eg, ni was one constituency for the euro election, nationalists also live in traditional unionist areas and may not have voted. what is undeniable based on a basic understanding of maths is that the unionist block in ni is around 48-54% while the nationalist is in the 42-45%. the 150k extra that showed up at the gfa ref would have divided like that

alliance reg as unionist at stormont under duress to save the assembly. as can be seen by the distribution of their votes they broke down along similar % to the unionist/nationalist blocks

[slow corner back]

The alliance party are not unionists look at the way the transfers from them and the greens went 52% unionist 48% nationalist, discounting those that did not transfer. There is one simple fact from this election, for the first time unionism could not muster up two quotas end of story. Even with a proportionally greater downturn in nationalist turnout this time as opposed to 2004 the unionist share of the vote still fell as it has fallen at every election since about 1981. By the way the alliance party are non aligned at stormont do not believe all the crap EG posts on here.

[Donagh]

By the way the alliance party are non aligned at stormont do not believe all the crap EG posts on here.

Don't mind Eg too much he's been living abroad for so long now he much of a clue what goes on in Ireland. Unfortunately for him in this case the Alliance Wiki article neglects to mention how Alliance designates. 

[In the Onion Bag]

31 Ziggy- you don't really want to keep Fermanagh do you? 

Lovin It

[Roger]

eg, ni was one constituency for the euro election, nationalists also live in traditional unionist areas and may not have voted. what is undeniable based on a basic understanding of maths is that the unionist block in ni is around 48-54% while the nationalist is in the 42-45%. the 150k extra that showed up at the gfa ref would have divided like that

It is generally considered that the 150k extra were disproportionately from unionist areas.  How they would vote in a border poll is open to suggestion though. 

[Aerlik]

This thread has made great reading, and of course the result with the national party topping the poll adding more pleasure.  What I do find very disheartening is the pathetic turn-out in this election.  Here in Oz it is obligatory to vote and failure to do so is a not insubstantial fine.  Yours truly recently missed the vote on the retention of daylight saving time (major, major issue indeed) and is awaiting the bill from the State Govt.

I, therefore, feel it should be mandatory to vote and failure to do so without a very valid reason should result in a fine.  Most pointedly is the low turn-out among Nationalists.  Is this as a result of general apathy or a clever campaign by unionists downplaying the role of the European elections in their everyday lives, thus clearing the way for a unionist majority?

I'm with TF when he stated that the first time his preferred candidate came top of the poll.  It would have been the same for me too, TF.