The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[Donagh]

Over 26000 of his transfers went to the DUP.

Obviously as they are from the same gene pool, but you asked by some went to the Stoops and I offered and explanation.

So alliance and the green party support a united ireland, thats not my understanding, from what i've read of their mainfestos they support the belfast agreement, end of.

I didn't say that as we all know they are officially neutral on the issue. I said 45% of their transfers went to nationalist parties, read into that what you will.

[Aghdavoyle]

How bad a candidate was diane dodds? brutal

[Roger]

How bad a candidate was diane dodds? brutal

Horrendously bad.

[Donagh]

How bad a candidate was diane dodds? brutal

It does however illustrate the dearth of talent outside the DUP top table. Will be interesting to see of Robinson can replace the double-jobbers with people having an IQ higher than a mentally challenged snooker ball.

[Roger]

How bad a candidate was diane dodds? brutal

It does however illustrate the dearth of talent outside the DUP top table. Will be interesting to see of Robinson can replace the double-jobbers with people having an IQ higher than a mentally challenged snooker ball.

The dearth of talent across all parties is evident. We are over governed and have too many parties and too few decent people in Politics right across the spectrum.  None of the best three candidates got elected imo. I don't think De Brun is much better than Dodds albeit she didn't rant on in that Politics Show, but she does come across pretty poorly too.

[Tonto]

None of the best three candidates got elected imo.

I'm guessing you mean Agnew, Allister and Maginness?

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

How bad a candidate was diane dodds? brutal

It does however illustrate the dearth of talent outside the DUP top table. Will be interesting to see of Robinson can replace the double-jobbers with people having an IQ higher than a mentally challenged snooker ball.

The dearth of talent across all parties is evident. We are over governed and have too many parties and too few decent people in Politics right across the spectrum.  None of the best three candidates got elected imo. I don't think De Brun is much better than Dodds albeit she didn't rant on in that Politics Show, but she does come across pretty poorly too.

Yeah, the cheak of her trying to shake hands with Dodds!

Would you care to elaborate on where and when Babs came across poorly?
Also would love to know who you think the 3 best candidates are and why?

[Maguire01]

What's also interesting was the redistribution of the Alliance and Green votes. After the redistribution 52.8% went to Unionist parties and 45.6% went to Nationalist parties.

Alliance and Green - 45% of their transfers went to the Stoops and SF.

How are you getting these calculations?

I'm working it out that of the Alliance & Greens transfers, 46.76% went to the SDLP (not SDLP and SF) with 53.24% going to the 3 Unionists.

Do you have insider info on what Alliance & Greens transferred to SF? I didn't see it published as SF obviously didn't require the transfer. 7,548 Alliance & Green votes weren't counted in the transfer for the second count - presumably these are split between second preferences for SF and votes that weren't transferred. If some of these would have transferred to SF, then the split would be more like 50/50 between Nationalist and Unionist parties.

[delboy]

I didn't say that as we all know they are officially neutral on the issue. I said 45% of their transfers went to nationalist parties, read into that what you will.

Well obviuously the 'trend' is that greenies tend to be nationalist but that they think hugging trees is more important than a united ireland  

[tyrone86]

How are you getting these calculations?

I'm working it out that of the Alliance & Greens transfers, 46.76% went to the SDLP (not SDLP and SF) with 53.24% going to the 3 Unionists.

Do you have insider info on what Alliance & Greens transferred to SF? I didn't see it published as SF obviously didn't require the transfer. 7,548 Alliance & Green votes weren't counted in the transfer for the second count - presumably these are split between second preferences for SF and votes that weren't transferred. If some of these would have transferred to SF, then the split would be more like 50/50 between Nationalist and Unionist parties.

I might be wrong, but if SF were a 2 on an Alliance/Green transfer then it would have went to the 3. I presume the 7548 voted either 1 Alliance or Green and stopped or voted 1/2 in an Alliance/Green combination and stopped

[Maguire01]

How are you getting these calculations?

I'm working it out that of the Alliance & Greens transfers, 46.76% went to the SDLP (not SDLP and SF) with 53.24% going to the 3 Unionists.

Do you have insider info on what Alliance & Greens transferred to SF? I didn't see it published as SF obviously didn't require the transfer. 7,548 Alliance & Green votes weren't counted in the transfer for the second count - presumably these are split between second preferences for SF and votes that weren't transferred. If some of these would have transferred to SF, then the split would be more like 50/50 between Nationalist and Unionist parties.

I might be wrong, but if SF were a 2 on an Alliance/Green transfer then it would have went to the 3. I presume the 7548 voted either 1 Alliance or Green and stopped or voted 1/2 in an Alliance/Green combination and stopped

Maybe - i'm no expert in these things.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

How are you getting these calculations?

I'm working it out that of the Alliance & Greens transfers, 46.76% went to the SDLP (not SDLP and SF) with 53.24% going to the 3 Unionists.

Do you have insider info on what Alliance & Greens transferred to SF? I didn't see it published as SF obviously didn't require the transfer. 7,548 Alliance & Green votes weren't counted in the transfer for the second count - presumably these are split between second preferences for SF and votes that weren't transferred. If some of these would have transferred to SF, then the split would be more like 50/50 between Nationalist and Unionist parties.

I might be wrong, but if SF were a 2 on an Alliance/Green transfer then it would have went to the 3. I presume the 7548 voted either 1 Alliance or Green and stopped or voted 1/2 in an Alliance/Green combination and stopped

As far as I remember thats correct.

[Donagh]

Well obviuously the 'trend' is that greenies tend to be nationalist but that they think hugging trees is more important than a united ireland  

delboy what it means is that the 'Castle Kethlics' aren't going to save unionism from the inevitable, nor will the hope that all those Alliance voters will swing in behind unionism.

Maguire, sorry of course you're right, I overlooked that and just lumped the SDLP transfers in the SF but forgot had already went over quota.


The final figures from yesterday after transfers were 52.3% for unionism and 46.1% for nationalism and 1.6% non-transferable. This was marginally better for unionism as their turnout didn't drop as much as did it within nationalist areas, but that could be down to the Allistair factor of livening things up. A the turnout was so low, I doubt there is anything we can read into the figures except that the gap continues to close. A 2.5% swing from one side to the other will exceed the 50%+1 requirement of the GFA - the EU poll being 'cleaner' due to the non-involvement of independents. That is very achievable within a decade.  

[Maguire01]

I thought any surpluses were also transferred - what happened SF's extra 5,000 odd votes?

[Evil Genius]

Well obviuously the 'trend' is that greenies tend to be nationalist but that they think hugging trees is more important than a united ireland  

delboy what it means is that the 'Castle Kethlics' aren't going to save unionism from the inevitable, nor will the hope that all those Alliance voters will swing in behind unionism.

Maguire, sorry of course you're right, I overlooked that and just lumped the SDLP transfers in the SF but forgot had already went over quota.


The final figures from yesterday after transfers were 52.3% for unionism and 46.1% for nationalism and 1.6% non-transferable. This was marginally better for unionism as their turnout didn't drop as much as did it within nationalist areas, but that could be down to the Allistair factor of livening things up. A the turnout was so low, I doubt there is anything we can read into the figures except that the gap continues to close. A 2.5% swing from one side to the other will exceed the 50%+1 requirement of the GFA - the EU poll being 'cleaner' due to the non-involvement of independents. That is very achievable within a decade.  

Tell me, Donagh, were you far into your (post-Election) "United Ireland by 2016" Victory Speech before Monday's results caused you to have to tear it up and start again?  

And as for your present attempt at "whistling past the graveyard" to keep your own spirits up, are you really managing to kid yourself, because it sure as Hell isn't fooling the rest of us?

For you can spoof all you like eg about the relative drop in Nationalist turnout being greater since 2004, or about Colin Duffy's standing increasing the Nationalist vote, or about Green Party transfers ya-di-ya-di-ya, but none of it conceals the essential facts.

Namely, this was an Election where the 2 Nat Parties fielded sound candidates, with genuine aspirations of both getting returned. Whereas Unionism was more split than it has been in years. Meanwhile, the largest Unionist Party fielded an utterly hopeless candidate, even though mired in Expenses/Double Jobbing controversy, and the UUP were experimenting with a new Conservative Alliance, which is clearly a matter of contention amongst its supporters. And in the Election itself, it is undeniable that turnout was lower in traditionally Unionist areas than in their Nationalist counterparts.

So remind me how did the results pan out again? Well in 2004, SF/SDLP gained 42.2% of the 1st Preference vote. And even if you include Eamonn McCann's vote as Nationalist, that still only brings it up to 43.8%. Whereas the combined DUP/UUP vote was 48.5%. As for the remaining 7.5% Independent/Green vote, their transfers at the 3rd count to the remaining UUP and SDLP candidates reflected the overall Unionist/Nationalist split.

Compare that with 2009. SF/SDLP took an identical 42.2% of the 1st preference votes, whereas the DUP/UUP/TUV combined total was higher than 2004, at 49.9%. Meanwhile, the 3rd count transfers from Alliance and Greens was 16,325 to the SDLP, but 18,590 to DUP/UUP/TUV, so at the very least we can say that Alliance voters reflect the current Unionist/Nationalist split*. (This despite Alban McGuinness's personal credibility/appeal far outweighing that of the 3 Unionist candidates, btw).

All of which goes to show that despite the circumstances in 2009 being notably more favourable for Nationalism vis-a-vis Unionism than in 2004, not only did the Nationalist vote fail to rise, but if anything, it actually fell. And at the same time, the Unionist vote actually rose slightly.

So much for the inexorability of your "1% per annum rise in the Catholic birthrate", which was going to see us all off some time in the near future!  


* - Don't forget that Alliance are a (self-defined) Unionist party, in that they are so registered at Stormont and support the constitutional status quo; therefore if their 5.5% were counted as Unionist votes, it would take the overall 2009 Unionist vote up to 54.5%.