The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[Roger]

Roger the vote in nationalist areas dropped more than the vote unionist areas but SF will still top the poll and a fair chance the SDLP will take a seat. Turnout has dropped on both sides but the crucial factor is that those who don't vote don't count. As many Fenians will appear for the next, presumably more important, election as will Prods, so that is irrelevant. What is relevant in the trends of the past 20 years, which say the garden centre Prod doesn't exist and if it does, it doesn't matter anyway.   

They mattered at the last referendum.  Any border referendum I believe they'd be out again.  Now that's just opinion but you can see it has some precendent. I suppose even commenting is now cue for a torrent of abuse, insults and aggro from some quarters.  Oh well.

Btw, I don't think SDLP will get the third seat but this time last week I would have thought they would. One thing for sure is that Monday's results will be an interesting read.   

roger, turnout thursday 42.8% down from 51.2% (2004).... total unionist vote 237,436 (2009) as against 266,925 (04) down 29,489. unionist vote down 11.05%.... total nationalist vote 204,673 (09) as against 232,100 (04) down 27,427 nationalist vote down 11.82%. percent of total vote unionist 49%  (2004 - 48.60%)  nationalist 42.26% (2004 - 42.34%). the drop in the turnout from 2004 is made up equally of unionists/nationalists. also the nationalist vote has for sometime now been in the 42-44% range. the overall point i'm making is the stay at home unionists who didnt come out in 2004 or any year are matched by stay at home nationalists based on any number of elections you want to use because in a large pop sample as big as 1.5m unionists/nationalists are equally motivated/lazy/interested/uninterested

The stats do show a downturn in turnout compared to 2004 more or less equal in both communities. However this is the downturn only and does not represent that a greater % of nationalists still vote than compared to unionists. If a referendum took place (ie on the continuance of British sovereignty as per other thread) then more unionists, I believe, would turnout and there is reason to believe that they would as this is more important and can be seen by the turnout in 1998 when an additional 150k voters came out, the majority of whom most commentators agree were considered to be unionists.

[delboy]

Even yesterdays result shows that vast majority of U nionists support Stormont cos they voted Ulster Unionist or DUP. but,  history has shown us , that the small minority of Unionists (13.67% in this case) who are opposed to sharing power with Nationalists rule the roost and will dictate future Unionist policy. Robinson must not do a Trimble. Robinson must take these people head on and make it clear to them that , the will of the majority of Unionists will prevail.

Thats 13.67 % of the total but just shy of 28 % of the unionist vote. Robinson will almost certainly 'do a trimble' that 28 % of the unionist vote is enough to get robinson and his party reduced from the largest to possibly the 3rd/4th largest overall and the second largest in unionism. He will want to pick up those votes and the only way he can is to give representation to those 28 % of the unionist voters by taking a much tougher stance.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Even yesterdays result shows that vast majority of U nionists support Stormont cos they voted Ulster Unionist or DUP. but,  history has shown us , that the small minority of Unionists (13.67% in this case) who are opposed to sharing power with Nationalists rule the roost and will dictate future Unionist policy. Robinson must not do a Trimble. Robinson must take these people head on and make it clear to them that , the will of the majority of Unionists will prevail.

Thats 13.67 % of the total but just shy of 28 % of the unionist vote. Robinson will almost certainly 'do a trimble' that 28 % of the unionist vote is enough to get robinson and his party reduced from the largest to possibly the 3rd largest overall and the second largest in unionism. He will want to pick up those votes and the only way he can is to give representation to those 28 % of the unionist voters by taking a much tougher stance.

Foster on radio this morning and was saying the opposite - we can only hope, otherwise the dinosaurs win again.

[Donagh]

The stats do show a downturn in turnout compared to 2004 more or less equal in both communities. However this is the downturn only and does not represent that a greater % of nationalists still vote than compared to unionists. If a referendum took place (ie on the continuance of British sovereignty as per other thread) then more unionists, I believe, would turnout and there is reason to believe that they would as this is more important and can be seen by the turnout in 1998 when an additional 150k voters came out, the majority of whom most commentators agree were considered to be unionists.

Roger they do not show an equal downturn in both communities. The figures below show the turnouts, and variations from the mean, for each constituency in 2007 and 2009. The least worst performing places, in terms of relative turnout, are North Antrim, East Derry, East Antrim, Upper Bann and North Down.

BE 38.8% -4.0% 60.0% -3.5%
BN 41.0% -1.8% 60.9% -2.6%
BS 42.1% -0.7% 62.4% -1.1%
BW 46.6% 3.8% 67.4% 3.9%
EA 34.5% -8.3% 53.5% -10.0%
ED 42.3% -0.5% 60.9% -2.6%
FST 51.5% 8.7% 71.2% 7.7%
Foy 44.3% 1.5% 63.9% 0.4%
LV 38.9% -3.9% 60.0% -3.5%
MU 52.8% 10.0% 73.1% 9.6%
N&A 49.1% 6.3% 70.8% 7.3%
NA 43.2% 0.4% 61.3% -2.2%
ND 34.5% -8.3% 53.8% -9.7%
SA 38.0% -4.8% 58.6% -4.9%
SD 45.0% 2.2% 65.0% 1.5%
Str 34.2% -8.6% 54.5% -9.0%
UB 41.8% -1.0% 61.1% -2.4%
WT 50.3% 7.5% 71.7% 8.2%
42.8% 63.5%

So what these show are that even when the differential was less in unionist areas i.e. their areas dropped less than the drop in nationalist areas, the nationalist vote still held and we even had a SFer coming in first. This only points to the trend drifting away from unionism, so just as you may expect unionist turnout to go up for more serious elections and or referendum, so to will be expect the nationalist vote to do the same but it will not affect the trend which are point to a majority of people voting for pro-unity parties with in a decade or so. That reality will have to be faced in the next Assembly election when SF take the First Minister title.

[delboy]

Even yesterdays result shows that vast majority of U nionists support Stormont cos they voted Ulster Unionist or DUP. but,  history has shown us , that the small minority of Unionists (13.67% in this case) who are opposed to sharing power with Nationalists rule the roost and will dictate future Unionist policy. Robinson must not do a Trimble. Robinson must take these people head on and make it clear to them that , the will of the majority of Unionists will prevail.

Thats 13.67 % of the total but just shy of 28 % of the unionist vote. Robinson will almost certainly 'do a trimble' that 28 % of the unionist vote is enough to get robinson and his party reduced from the largest to possibly the 3rd largest overall and the second largest in unionism. He will want to pick up those votes and the only way he can is to give representation to those 28 % of the unionist voters by taking a much tougher stance.

Foster on radio this morning and was saying the opposite - we can only hope, otherwise the dinosaurs win again.

I'd be amazed if the DUP didn't go for those voters, they didn't spend the last few decades plotting and strategising to become the biggest party in unionism to throw all that away after a mere few years at the top. I would suspect that many in the party will think trimble failed because he didn't go far enough!!

The only other strategy is to bury there head in the sand and hope nicholson and his vote dissapears into the ether come the assembly and westminster elections.  

[delboy]

This only points to the trend drifting away from unionism, so just as you may expect unionist turnout to go up for more serious elections and or referendum, so to will be expect the nationalist vote to do the same but it will not affect the trend which are point to a majority of people voting for pro-unity parties with in a decade or so. That reality will have to be faced in the next Assembly election when SF take the First Minister title.

Donagh what happened to your much touted trend of the inexorable rise of the nationalist/republican vote by 1 % every few years, by that reckoning the vote should have been up by the order of 2-2.5 %, instead it remained constant with the previous outing. That puts a bit of a dent in your spurious extrapolations.

[Donagh]

Donagh what happened to your much touted trend of the inexorable rise of the nationalist/republican vote by 1 % every few years, by that reckoning the vote should have been up by the order of 2-2.5 %, instead it remained constant with the previous outing. That puts a bit of a dent in your spurious extrapolations.

Delboy, I meant the population changes by 1% every two years but that doesn't necessarily translate into votes immediately. As far as the Euro election is concerned I've shown above that the drop in turnout was bigger nationalist areas and the nationalist vote still held, when you would have expected the unionist share of the vote to increase - it didn't. I don't see how that puts a dent in my "extrapolations" whatever the f**k they are.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Even yesterdays result shows that vast majority of U nionists support Stormont cos they voted Ulster Unionist or DUP. but,  history has shown us , that the small minority of Unionists (13.67% in this case) who are opposed to sharing power with Nationalists rule the roost and will dictate future Unionist policy. Robinson must not do a Trimble. Robinson must take these people head on and make it clear to them that , the will of the majority of Unionists will prevail.

Thats 13.67 % of the total but just shy of 28 % of the unionist vote. Robinson will almost certainly 'do a trimble' that 28 % of the unionist vote is enough to get robinson and his party reduced from the largest to possibly the 3rd largest overall and the second largest in unionism. He will want to pick up those votes and the only way he can is to give representation to those 28 % of the unionist voters by taking a much tougher stance.

Foster on radio this morning and was saying the opposite - we can only hope, otherwise the dinosaurs win again.

I'd be amazed if the DUP didn't go for those voters, they didn't spend the last few decades plotting and strategising to become the biggest party in unionism to throw all that away after a mere few years at the top. I would suspect that many in the party will think trimble failed because he didn't go far enough!!

The only other strategy is to bury there head in the sand and hope nicholson and his vote dissapears into the ether come the assembly and westminster elections.  

Allister had a strong personal vote (because of his supposed good work in Europe), this will not transfer into other elections, Allisters had his day and will do a Bob McCartney and fade away into the background given time, imo.

[delboy]

They picked up a simialr proportion of the vote in a recent bi-election so its not a one off, the DUP will still be alarmed but we'll find out in the next year one way or the other. Personally i hope you are right, i hate this crass polarisation of politics that abounds in NI.

[Tonto]

Why do you think Allister is the best man for europe tonto?

Well, like most people I suppose, I don't really follow the affairs of the European Parliament so was just going on information I had read over the last couple of weeks:

Allister the best UK MEP: http://www.taxpayersalliance.com/MEPAssessments.pdf
Allister 5th best UK MEP: http://www.openeurope.org.uk/research/mepranking.xls

[Donagh]

Allister participation actually seems to be helping unionist turnout as he caused a bit of excitement and debate in that camp. I'd actually been hoping Collie Duffy would have done the same on the nationalist side, to a lesser extent. An extra percent or two and the Stoops would have taken the second seat.

What's also interesting was the redistribution of the Alliance and Green votes. After the redistribution 52.8% went to Unionist parties and 45.6% went to Nationalist parties. That probably gives us an indication of the state of play in terms of the divide between the two blocks. That is, if the last census was accurate and using the rough standard that Catholics are nationalist then the nationalist vote yesterday would be amazing in that every Catholic voted for nationalist parties. However as we are constantly told, there are many Catholics who are not nationalist so that means the Catholic population must be a lot higher and that their votes are hidden elsewhere i.e. in Alliance and Green - 45% of their transfers went to the Stoops and SF. This is not even taking into consideration that a fair section of the population that has the Catholic majority is still under-age and can't vote, so the trends will continue for the foreseeable future.

[delboy]

Allister participation actually seems to be helping unionist turnout as he caused a bit of excitement and debate in that camp. I'd actually been hoping Collie Duffy would have done the same on the nationalist side, to a lesser extent. An extra percent or two and the Stoops would have taken the second seat.

What's also interesting was the redistribution of the Alliance and Green votes. After the redistribution 52.8% went to Unionist parties and 45.6% went to Nationalist parties. That probably gives us an indication of the state of play in terms of the divide between the two blocks. That is, if the last census was accurate and using the rough standard that Catholics are nationalist then the nationalist vote yesterday would be amazing in that every Catholic voted for nationalist parties. However as we are constantly told, there are many Catholics who are not nationalist so that means the Catholic population must be a lot higher and that their votes are hidden elsewhere i.e. in Alliance and Green - 45% of their transfers went to the Stoops and SF. This is not even taking into consideration that a fair section of the population that has the Catholic majority is still under-age and can't vote, so the trends will continue for the foreseeable future.

Still with the 'trends' and wild extrapolations i see, ffs over 2 and a half thousand of TUVs transfers went to the SDLP, what nonsense can you read into that for instance 

What trend are you talking about anyway, the trend that a significant proportion of catholics don't vote for nationalist parties, i don't see why that seems to make you so happy?

[Donagh]

Still with the 'trends' and wild extrapolations i see, ffs over 2 and a half thousand of TUVs transfers went to the SDLP, what nonsense can you read into that for instance 

Anyone but the DUPs.

What trend are you talking about anyway, the trend that a significant proportion of catholics don't vote for nationalist parties, i don't see why that seems to make you so happy?

Trends towards the majority of people voting for parties who support ending the partition of the country.

[Orior]

Still with the 'trends' and wild extrapolations i see, ffs over 2 and a half thousand of TUVs transfers went to the SDLP, what nonsense can you read into that for instance 

Strange indeed. The 2.5k either
a) registered it as a protest at the swish Family Robinson
b) are plain stupid

I reckon its (b).

[delboy]

Still with the 'trends' and wild extrapolations i see, ffs over 2 and a half thousand of TUVs transfers went to the SDLP, what nonsense can you read into that for instance 

Anyone but the DUPs.

What trend are you talking about anyway, the trend that a significant proportion of catholics don't vote for nationalist parties, i don't see why that seems to make you so happy?

Trends towards the majority of people voting for parties who support ending the partition of the country.

Over 26000 of his transfers went to the DUP.

So alliance and the green party support a united ireland, thats not my understanding, from what i've read of their mainfestos they support the belfast agreement, end of.