Westminster General Election 2024

Started by lurganblue, May 22, 2024, 04:45:49 PM

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Feckitt

Last year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????

JPGJOHNNYG

Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Armagh18

So after Tories apparently betting on the election date, a Labour candidate has bet on himself to lose?

thewobbler

Quote from: Armagh18 on June 25, 2024, 10:46:49 PMSo after Tories apparently betting on the election date, a Labour candidate has bet on himself to lose?

How does someone get a bookie willing to take a £100k stake on a market like that?

How does same person not expect it to be discussed out loud?

Armagh18

Quote from: thewobbler on June 25, 2024, 10:49:39 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on June 25, 2024, 10:46:49 PMSo after Tories apparently betting on the election date, a Labour candidate has bet on himself to lose?

How does someone get a bookie willing to take a £100k stake on a market like that?

How does same person not expect it to be discussed  out loud?
100k? Jesus that is madness, only heard the headline didn't know it was that much.

marty34

#260
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

gallsman

£100. Not £100,000 ffs.

The £100,000 number was mentioned in connection with him as he has donated in excess of it to the party.

thewobbler

Quote from: gallsman on June 25, 2024, 11:31:04 PM£100. Not £100,000 ffs.

The £100,000 number was mentioned in connection with him as he has donated in excess of it to the party.

Ah that makes more sense!

More reading, less scanning for me ffs.

Mikhail Prokhorov

Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

Nationalist does not mean a yes vote in a border poll

The vast majority are happy with the status quo

Alliance are unionists ffs  ;D

imtommygunn


LC

Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

In terms of the viewpoint of our politicians it is up there with asking if turkeys want to vote for Christmas.

What would happen to our 'hard working' MLAs and all the other sows who have their heads buried in the Stormont trough?

Father Murphy

Quote from: LC on June 26, 2024, 09:36:24 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

In terms of the viewpoint of our politicians it is up there with asking if turkeys want to vote for Christmas.

What would happen to our 'hard working' MLAs and all the other sows who have their heads buried in the Stormont trough?

Will there be a Stormont in a federal Ireland in any UI proposal do you think?

marty34

Quote from: LC on June 26, 2024, 09:36:24 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

In terms of the viewpoint of our politicians it is up there with asking if turkeys want to vote for Christmas.

What would happen to our 'hard working' MLAs and all the other sows who have their heads buried in the Stormont trough?

I think that's the least of their worries.

Dublin must start planning now.  We had Leo spoofing last week about this but, ironically, he was in charge for a few years and done f^#k all.

You'd think, by his chat, that he has no input into anything.

This election will be interesting again in regards to the % votes - unionist and nationalist.

Nationalist vote should remain steady/increase slightly while unionist vote will dip slightly.  This will be the standard going forward.  As I say, a graph over this past 40 years would show it better.

FPTP will be interesting in a few areas.  I think Swann in South Antrim will be interesting as well as EB an LV. Will Alliance get over the line? T

Will disaffected unionists with the DUP give their X to the TUV or will the vote tacically against Alliance, even though they're not impressed with the DUP?

From a nationalist point of view, very disappointed with the SDLP standing in all these areas, including LV, NB and FST.  Very disappointed.  Typical Eastwood though - getting a clear run in SB but not replicating that generosity of spirit anywhere else.  Typical Eastwood.




Armagh18

Quote from: marty34 on June 26, 2024, 09:59:28 AM
Quote from: LC on June 26, 2024, 09:36:24 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

In terms of the viewpoint of our politicians it is up there with asking if turkeys want to vote for Christmas.

What would happen to our 'hard working' MLAs and all the other sows who have their heads buried in the Stormont trough?

I think that's the least of their worries.

Dublin must start planning now.  We had Leo spoofing last week about this but, ironically, he was in charge for a few years and done f^#k all.

You'd think, by his chat, that he has no input into anything.

This election will be interesting again in regards to the % votes - unionist and nationalist.

Nationalist vote should remain steady/increase slightly while unionist vote will dip slightly.  This will be the standard going forward.  As I say, a graph over this past 40 years would show it better.

FPTP will be interesting in a few areas.  I think Swann in South Antrim will be interesting as well as EB an LV. Will Alliance get over the line? T

Will disaffected unionists with the DUP give their X to the TUV or will the vote tacically against Alliance, even though they're not impressed with the DUP?

From a nationalist point of view, very disappointed with the SDLP standing in all these areas, including LV, NB and FST.  Very disappointed.  Typical Eastwood though - getting a clear run in SB but not replicating that generosity of spirit anywhere else.  Typical Eastwood.




Wouldn't it be great if he got the road from Foyle.

Rossfan

Quote from: Father Murphy on June 26, 2024, 09:49:24 AM
Quote from: LC on June 26, 2024, 09:36:24 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 25, 2024, 11:17:30 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on June 25, 2024, 10:43:07 PM
Quote from: Feckitt on June 25, 2024, 09:18:06 PMLast year in the 2022 Northern Ireland Local Elections, Nationalists outpolled Unionists for the first time ever in the 100 year history of the Northern state.  My prediction for this election is that this will happen again next week.  The demographic tide cannot be turned and Unionists will never ever win another election again, including the Unity Referendum.

1974 General Election, Unionists 61.9% - Nationalists 30.2%

1998 Assembly Election, Unionists 50.7% - Nationalists 39.6%

2019 General Election, Unionists 43.2% - Nationalists 40.1%

2022 Assembly Election, Unionists 42.3% - Nationalists 40.5%

2023 Local Election, Unionists 40.1% - Nationalists 43.9%

2024 General Election ?????????


The alliance vote is also considerably greener these days. There was a euro election in 99 were nationalists hit 45% hence why unionists keep saying the nationalist vote hasn't moved in 25 years they conveniently ignore the 15% drop in the unionist vote.

Hopefully further traction for a border poll.

I would say you'd see them results a lot better on a graph.  It'd be very visual.

In terms of the viewpoint of our politicians it is up there with asking if turkeys want to vote for Christmas.

What would happen to our 'hard working' MLAs and all the other sows who have their heads buried in the Stormont trough?

Will there be a Stormont in a federal Ireland in any UI proposal do you think?

There will be some type of Home Rule or Devolved Parliament.
Play the game and play it fairly
Play the game like Dermot Earley.