Messages

Trump. I always knew he was a sound lad

60% would be great but the numbers will never work we will be waiting another hundred years for it. The current election results are always framed as oh look nationalism has stalled for 30 yrs it isn't growing no need for a border poll it is never pointed out the free fall of the unionist vote. Likewise opinion polls will have nationalism on 40%. The don't knows not only are they not ignored they are generally presented as default pro status quo. Personally I would prefer a border poll and lose but at least have a baseline figure to work with instead of all the bullshit going on to try and mask the figures and make it look like unionism still has it's 1922 2/1 majority.

Yes 60 % is right up there with paisley juniors supermajority crap. 50%+1 is enough the problem is if you include the neither in the polling then it's never getting above 45%. Ie a supermajority by stealth. The unionist tally could drop to 35 % in 10 yrs yet a poll still wouldn't happen as all the middle ground gets conveniently lumped in with pro status quo.

James from South Armagh opened the show today. He had to say he was from South Armagh about 10 times lol. So no surprise then when he was keen for Orangemen to walk anywhere they wanted. When Nolan asked him if it would be ok for a republican band to to go up the shankill his answer was of course no because the residents wouldn't want it lol. Nolan just let that comment go instead of hammering the hypocrisy of it. Bryson shit stirring as always and not even hiding the fact the initial drumcree proposal is not a resolution and that they will try for more and more

[Has Brexit and demography and politics changed that pro-union majority into a minority?]

Not a fan of that lad but can't disagree with most of that.

But the Belfast Agreement also recites, and the parties to the agreement and the two governments acknowledged, that the majority in 1998 favoured remaining in the United Kingdom. That was the factual position then. Has it changed? Has Brexit and demography and politics changed that pro-union majority into a minority?

The answer to this part is yes, unionists and those who vote for pro union parties are less than 50%.

Does that mean Pro Reunification supporters is a majority, no it doesn't.

There's only one way to find out

Exactly this. Nobody can confidently say how the vote will go. Unionism has lost its majority. The lazy analysis that the middle ground will save the day for unionism is just that. Do I think unity would win a poll tomorrow, no it won't but it sure has hell will be a lot closer than many seem to think and certainly talk of it being off the table is way off the mark

I said it earlier it should be united Ireland parties having a greater % over unionist parties over the next 3/4 elections. Independents can declare themselves one way or the other. Middle ground parties and independents who don't declare have opted themselves out of the debate and should be ignored. Tired of the same spoofers saying nationalism has stalled on 42% over 30 yrs but ignore the 12% drop in the unionist vote

Even Hannah who is certainly less interested in a UI than her predecessor said Burnham was talking shit

We already know the Alliance voters thoughts by looking at transfers in stv elections which consistently election after election are 2/1 in favour of nationalist parties, making the all unionist claim by some all the more pathetic

What amazes me about Lockhart is despite how awful she is the general nationalist vote in upper Bann can't get motivated enough to get the vote out. Im not from the constituency but there is still a large number of nationalist that would rather waste their vote on SDLP or alliance in a Westminster election when there is no chance of winning rather than try and get rid of Carla. I don't know enough about the SF candidate but it was the same problem in North Belfast. You had Nigel Dodds of all people there for the taking and for years the nationalists dithered and it took the really strong candidate of finucane for everyone to get behind to finally win

There are Nationalists that won't vote SDLP and there are Nationalists that won't vote SF, whether that is to the detriment of having a Unionist MP in there, well they have voted on what drives their sense of politics. The green and orange sectarian voting is what's actually wrong with the place and you seem to be encouraging it.

It's because of said voting that the place really at times looks like it will blow up, someone will light he fuse (Drumcree) and away we go with more hate politics rather than actually sorting out what the ordinary person wants..

Good infrastructure, education, health, cost of living, and a million other things have went to the wall because they refuse to work together, political point scoring while ordinary Joe is picking up the pieces

It's not so much green/orange more voting for a better option or even least worst option. Assembly elections and council elections vote for whoever you want and if you have the sense to go right down the list then your vote will eventually count due to stv but with westminster a bit more thinking is needed as it only counts once. My problem with alliance is they are trying to have their cake and eat it and that will only get them so far but they will need to make a decision one way or the other soon enough. Currently their vote is going down and will slide further as long and Muir are performing poorly. SF and SDLP need to work more closely together. Both upper Bann and East Derry are in sight if they can come to some sort of agreement. If both those seats go then NI is over

What amazes me about Lockhart is despite how awful she is the general nationalist vote in upper Bann can't get motivated enough to get the vote out. Im not from the constituency but there is still a large number of nationalist that would rather waste their vote on SDLP or alliance in a Westminster election when there is no chance of winning rather than try and get rid of Carla. I don't know enough about the SF candidate but it was the same problem in North Belfast. You had Nigel Dodds of all people there for the taking and for years the nationalists dithered and it took the really strong candidate of finucane for everyone to get behind to finally win

No British PM will grant a border poll. The western world has gone uber nationalistic and everything is about sovereign territory. The words "off the table" are ominous, and that's a PM of Irish heritage (the worst type of Englishmen btw - look at people like Brendan O'Neill, horrible effers, they really become more British than the British themselves). Nationalists need to get out the vote and maybe need a 3rd party that's a bit more grown up to talk economy (not Aontu) because SF/SDLP are not doing it. If they can at least out perform the Unionists in the percentages game, could try the courts. And no more lending votes to Sorcha, i'm an MP, here's my latest selfie in front of a bonfire.

I agree with pretty much all of this. I definitely agree that nationalists who want a UI need to stop voting for Alliance. As good as it is having Eastwood instead of someone like Buckley in Lagan Valley, and the fact the alliance party are much much greener than the 90S when I first started voting, people will use the stats to show the nationalist vote isn't growing and hasn't shifted since GFA. Also one minute alliance are SF puppets and part of the pan nationalist front the next minute you have academics(Cough) like Shirlow claiming all alliance voters want the Union.
I also agree that it ain't a good look being at bonfires with all the usual flags etc on top ready to be torched FFS.
At the end of the day Burnham can say what he wants but if nationalists keep getting a larger % than Unionists over say 3/4 consecutive elections then it will go to court. The middle ground figures need to be ignored if they continually want to sit on the fence, fine but their vote share shouldnt be conveniently counted as unionist by so called academics who run opinion polls which are then used to influence decisions on whether a referendum should happen or not FFS.

Wtf is going on. Another lethal wrong way crash in England. 2 policemen dead. Sounds like the 5 in the other car were again up to no good

Yes pure scum just hope the family are all ok.

Jason Array

A complete fraud by the looks of things but f**king hell.

The Daily Mail probably delighted as they were all up in his business.

His story was newsworthy and was so ridiculous you could easily see it being dramatised on netflix or something. His fantasies/lies should have been called out by someone yrs ago to put a stop to them before they  spiralled so out of control. That was the problem.

Anyone seen the paddy power video on tiktok. Hilarious. Pure shithousery. The video must have been made pre empting another embarrassing defeat and then released immediately after the defeat