About 18 months ago a friend of mine told me to buy shares with a irish company. At the time i could have bought them for around €3.30 per share however i didn't have any disposable income at the time and week by week i watched them increase to a high of €14 per share :-[ :-[ those shares now however can be bought for €6 per share .Do you think that it is now a good time to buy shares with all the stock markets falling or do you think they will continue to fall.
Dont touch them for at least a few months. The experts are losing their shirts so why risk it? :o
Quote from: muppet on August 11, 2007, 10:56:04 AM
Dont touch them for at least a few months. The experts are losing their shirts so why risk it? :o
cheers thanks for that muppett
Yesterday is always the best time to buy shares.
Quote from: Hardy on August 11, 2007, 11:42:03 AM
Yesterday is always the best time to buy shares.
would you dabble in shares hardy?
'Dabble' would probably be too big a word for anything I'd have done. I think you can go to jail for giving financial advice without a license, so I won't try to answer your first question. Except to say that the secret is to buy low and sell high :) (Or sell high and buy low, which is just as effective, but a bit more dangerous).
If you can keep doing that you'll be a billionaire in no time.
Conventional wisdom is that it's better to buy in a falling market and sell in a rising one, so by that rule now is not a bad time to buy - if you think the market won't fall much more and will come back up above its present level. And also, the stock market has historically outperformed every other form of investment, over the long term.
Having said all that, I know as much about the whole thing as Fearon does about paying for tickets.
Quote from: Hardy on August 11, 2007, 01:22:20 PM
'Dabble' would probably be too big a word for anything I'd have done. I think you can go to jail for giving financial advice without a license, so I won't try to answer your first question. Except to say that the secret is to buy low and sell high :) (Or sell high and buy low, which is just as effective, but a bit more dangerous).
If you can keep doing that you'll be a billionaire in no time.
Conventional wisdom is that it's better to buy in a falling market and sell in a rising one, so by that rule now is not a bad time to buy - if you think the market won't fall much more and will come back up above its present level. And also, the stock market has historically outperformed every other form of investment, over the long term.
Having said all that, I know as much about the whole thing as Fearon does about paying for tickets.
thanks for your opinion hardy wouldn't want to be responsible for you going to jai ;)
now just mught be a very good time to buy shares... and then it might not be. if you do, buy a few different ones and i bet the ones that make/lose money will surprise you. in the long run there a good bet....
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 11, 2007, 10:27:46 AM
About 18 months ago a friend of mine told me to buy shares with a irish company. At the time i could have bought them for around €3.30 per share however i didn't have any disposable income at the time and week by week i watched them increase to a high of €14 per share :-[ :-[ those shares now however can be bought for €6 per share .Do you think that it is now a good time to buy shares with all the stock markets falling or do you think they will continue to fall.
Not Elan by any chance? Have my fecking heart broke, always boom or burst...
Quote from: Donagh on August 12, 2007, 12:54:27 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 11, 2007, 10:27:46 AM
About 18 months ago a friend of mine told me to buy shares with a irish company. At the time i could have bought them for around €3.30 per share however i didn't have any disposable income at the time and week by week i watched them increase to a high of €14 per share :-[ :-[ those shares now however can be bought for €6 per share .Do you think that it is now a good time to buy shares with all the stock markets falling or do you think they will continue to fall.
Not Elan by any chance? Have my fecking heart broke, always boom or burst…
no donagh not elan, they are a drinks company
Must be C&C.
The very poor summer has frigged up their cider sales in the UK (which is what caused most of the phenomenal growth over the past few years).
I'm not sure that they would reach those highs again with other drinks manufactures noticing how well Magners have done resulting in them putting a greater emphasis on their cider in the UK - Bulmers and Strongbow. I would imagine that their share of the UK market will not be able to stay at their recent peaks.
However, to answer your first question (at the risk of going to jail) - I do think that now is a good time to buy equities.
QuoteI do think that now is a good time to buy equities
Think that advice might be a year too late SJ. Most funds being offered by banks have rose massively in the past year (> 20%). There is one being offered by Rabobank based on Chinese commodoties that has gone by almost 60% in the past 12 months. Very hard to see even close to such rises again next year.
Blast, that may well be true but unfortunately my time machine is broke today so I can't go back 12 months.
The question was, is now a good time to buy?
My answer to that question is yes. The fundmamentals of most companies are strong going forward, ie growth in profits etc, no one actually believes that we are headed for a recession.
I think that taking advantage of the fairly hefty correction we have seen over the past month is sound logic.
BTW, Thankfully for me I took your advice and I invested a fairly lumpy amount last September ;)
glad i took you advice muppett could get them shares today for €3.90 would have made a big loss
It seems we're getting to the onset of inevitability of US recession potentially stimulating global recession.
I invest a bit and have been getting murdered for the last 3 weeks, high tech sector predictably, leading the downward charge!
At the moment, I'm looking for hedge investments to offset my risky holding - perhaps commodity stock or US debt collection agencies come mortgage default time??!
Anyone else know of any equities who stand to gain as we go down the road of global recession?
Looking at Washinton Mutual and Bank Of America to lead the way......Down
Intermediate term, Freddie Mac was a nice hit during the week ;D
I will throw my two cents in here for what its worth.
Take a look at any medical supply/manufacturer/distributor that does business in the states.
The Population is around 45-65% over the age of 53. That relates into a huge boom in the medical fields.
The baby boomers are no longer booming, with the onset of heart disease, arthritis and other common medical conditions associated with older age (interesting side note- Ireland does not have this drastic sitiuation of an increasing elder population due to emigration).
Two stores that supply prescriptions, medical related items and common consumer needs (milk, toilet paper and quick purchase items) are Walgreens and CVS.
Walgreens wag
CVS cvs
Also look at Siruis Satelite radio they have proposed a merger with XM satelite radio to be the only satelite provider in the states. Right now the FCC is looking at this merger but will eventually have to let it go through.
Sirius (siri) is at 3.50 per share and once the merger goes through your looking at a price between 9-23.00 per share.
Yes, I own shares in WAG and SIRI so take it at what its worth.
I do see where your going with the medical field but it's quite a long term play,
not a big fan of tying up capital like that unless of course in an IRA account then maybe.
I hope you weren't holding Wag over Earnings! Longs Drugs is actually showing stronger numbers (LDG)
might be a better play as Walgreen's have struggled to recover from their disappointing 4th Qtr report.
people in the industry are bricking themselves and money into year end is dead money - no one is willing to put money on the table and risk bonuses at the moment. Interestingly we have just had a Dow sell signal. From a relative value point of view most models point that equities are now cheap versus bonds whose yields have gone down significantly over last couple months whilst equities earnings yields have risen. Recession in the US is now forecast at about 45% possibility and markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut - little bit of uncertainty over the last couple days though with speeches from some Fed governors and economic data still strong. People now a little bit more unsure of whether a "Bernanke put" exists - ie will the Fed act to keep everything on the straight and narrow.
On the fundamental side people seem to believe european economy is still strong, hence corporate profits should still be strong. That doesn't matter a damn if there is a US recession as correlation will go to 1 and everything will tank. Right now i wouldn't consider being outright long. In bearish markets people often look to defensive sectors with nice fat dividend yields as bond proxies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform over the next couple of months.
My own view is that there is much worse to come. With the writedowns in the US and rumours/estimate of so much more, there is no smoke without fire. Debt capital markets are paralysed at the moment with virtually no new issuance of any structured products. These CDO's/CLO's etc are to some degree what have fuelled boom of recent years - by getting rid of this stuff from their balance sheets banks were able to lend out more and more to corporates and the consumer - credit was easily available. Not any more, turn the tap off and what do you have? A downturn. People are going to be very wary about getting back into these sort of products straight away hence capital won't be so readily available.
I'm not touching anything with my own money for the time being
Quote from: CiKe on November 22, 2007, 08:00:46 PM
people in the industry are bricking themselves and money into year end is dead money - no one is willing to put money on the table and risk bonuses at the moment. Interestingly we have just had a Dow sell signal. From a relative value point of view most models point that equities are now cheap versus bonds whose yields have gone down significantly over last couple months whilst equities earnings yields have risen. Recession in the US is now forecast at about 45% possibility and markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut - little bit of uncertainty over the last couple days though with speeches from some Fed governors and economic data still strong. People now a little bit more unsure of whether a "Bernanke put" exists - ie will the Fed act to keep everything on the straight and narrow.
On the fundamental side people seem to believe european economy is still strong, hence corporate profits should still be strong. That doesn't matter a damn if there is a US recession as correlation will go to 1 and everything will tank. Right now i wouldn't consider being outright long. In bearish markets people often look to defensive sectors with nice fat dividend yields as bond proxies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform over the next couple of months.
My own view is that there is much worse to come. With the writedowns in the US and rumours/estimate of so much more, there is no smoke without fire. Debt capital markets are paralysed at the moment with virtually no new issuance of any structured products. These CDO's/CLO's etc are to some degree what have fuelled boom of recent years - by getting rid of this stuff from their balance sheets banks were able to lend out more and more to corporates and the consumer - credit was easily available. Not any more, turn the tap off and what do you have? A downturn. People are going to be very wary about getting back into these sort of products straight away hence capital won't be so readily available.
I'm not touching anything with my own money for the time being
I personally think that percentage is flattering TBH and i do agree that things are going to get a lot worse here in the US and to a lesser degree globally,
I def would not be long the market for the foreseeable future, just in and out scalping what i can for me for the next while.
is now a good time to buy shares- we ll the simple answer to that is yes and no.
Its a good time to buy shares in something thats going to go up and its a bad time to buy in something thats going to go down.
Stick to what you know.
If you hear that the brickies and builders you know are busy then its a good time to buy in construction. If oil prices go up its usually a good time to buy in oil companies. If gold is going up in price, then a gold mining company is likely to go up, but these gains will only be until the market has assessed that the gains have brought the company to a fair price. Likewise if you know someone working in a company about to be taken over- get in there.
The flip is also true- you know that a mining company has been illegally dumping then selling their shares (or buying options) is the way forward.
In the end of it, treat the markets as if there is a finite amount of money in the world- if something is going down, something else is going up, your job is to pick whats going up, if you're lucky you'll do well, if you're smart and lucky you'll do exceptionally well, however the market is only responsible for a small part of the price of any company, its how fundamentally sound the company is, its products and its management...
seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..
Quote from: magickingdom on November 22, 2007, 10:13:52 PM
seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..
What is an average PE ratio for the banking industry?
Quote from: Niall Quinn on November 22, 2007, 11:58:58 PM
Quote from: magickingdom on November 22, 2007, 10:13:52 PM
seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..
What is an average PE ratio for the banking industry?
sorry i just saw this. in 2006 the irish banks were trading about 12 times earnings if i remember right (currently 6), ryanair at the minute are about 16, independant news 17. a lot of equities trade at a p/e of up to 20.. the irish market has lost 46 BILLION in value since feb 07, which is nuts buy any rational measurement
Since I last posted on this thread, the value of my 'watchlist' has decreased by an average 25%. Anyone else think that a US recession is now valued into market prices? Is now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!
Is it a good time now to buy shares? the global markets are tumbling and it will be interestering to see what happens the US markets when they open tomorrow. The FTSE has dropped 5.5% which is the biggest single drop since 11/09 whilst the ISEQ was down 272.73.
is there further to drop, what impact will this have on mortgages, will the interest rate drop to try and create further spare cash
QuoteIs now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!
The recession will alleviate?
Quote from: heganboy on January 21, 2008, 06:13:09 PM
QuoteIs now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!
The recession will alleviate?
I'm wondering are we now at a time when the fear of US recession is already built into stock prices, and is it worth taking a gamble on something less than doomsday scenario? i.e. is the market currently undervalued?
Valuation ratio analysis gives no definitive and the dotcom era offers recent evidence that markets need not return to previous conditions, but it's my feeling that we're now approaching a good time to invest and I was wondering what the feeling was amongst posters here?
I agree Square Ball, that there will likely be reverberations on US stock tomorrow, so maybe wait that one out for 24 hrs!
The futures are down about 7% today lads, blood bath on the open tomorrow morning :o
About trying to predict or time a market bottom reminds me of the Japanese proverb;
"Don't try to catch a falling knife" advice to live by at this game!!
think you'd be better off backing horses than investing in the stock market
you have to invest a fortune to make a fortune , or play it steadily every day (ie a full time job)
but one wrong stock and you are back to square one
whatever time might be a good time to buy stocks and shares, imo its a waste of time.
Yes this is my own opinion, but I cant see the business sense in it !
Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 21, 2008, 08:28:14 PM
Yes this is my own opinion, but I cant see the business sense in it !
Simple really - you've got wealth generation on your side!
The average 100 stake put on the horses returns 75 (*wild guess #1) to the punter in a given year.
The average 100 investment on the stock market returns 105 (*wild guess #2) to the investor in a given year.
Quote from: Niall Quinn on January 21, 2008, 08:39:58 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 21, 2008, 08:28:14 PM
Yes this is my own opinion, but I cant see the business sense in it !
Simple really - you've got wealth generation on your side!
The average 100 stake put on the horses returns 75 (*wild guess #1) to the punter in a given year.
The average 100 investment on the stock market returns 105 (*wild guess #2) to the investor in a given year.
yes, but its too much of a gamble, which is never the rationale of a business person, only a gambler
Well the brilliant celebrity economists here talked hard for 4 years to persuade us into an Irish property market crash and the Irish stock market crashed far worse.
If the useless twats advised me to play hurling I'd start knitting.
The stock markets are falling by around 6-7% all around the world. If USA get a cold Europe goes down with the flu. It ain't looking good. I wouldn't buy shares until things settle down a bit.
If you had a decent amount of cash put aside that you could afford to invest for a couple of years (ie) not see any returns on it for a while then there has never been a better time to buy shares.
Its not necessarily a bad time to buy. I live in the North and have an ISA. I had one about 4-5 years ago which dropped by way over a grand, I sat tight and two years later without paying any money in the original investment was up £2k. The big thing is to sit tight, my current one is down about £300 in the last week but it is buying shares cheaper so as logic dictates will have more of them should the price go up. And the way shares and markets work they will go up at some stage. There is an election on in the US later in the year and this always pushes up prices despite the current doom and gloom and as someone said when the US markets get a cold Europe has a flu. Just sit tight and ride out the storm and hopefully it will be ok
http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2008/01/stock-market-ruined-my-life.html (http://highprobability.blogspot.com/2008/01/stock-market-ruined-my-life.html)
No sympathy whatsoever for this guy. A respectable form of gambling or educated risk taking as my nere do well trader friends call it.
if you want to invest the best way to go would be with asia currency.
I believe Liverpool FC have a few shares they'd sell you at a reduced rate at the minute.
Major panic on the world markets now. The Fed has cut interest rates by 3/4 but still no good - the NAZDAQ in down over 4% since trading restarted.
http://ticker.nasdaq.com/tkr/TickerFrame.asp
(http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png)
Quote from: clarshack on January 22, 2008, 02:53:13 PM
what's the chances of uk interest rates coming down by 1/2 percent in feb now?
They released a statement earlier along with the ECB to say they wouldn't be following the Fed in the short term
Anyone wanting to see if they can beat the market can use a site like bullbearings.co.uk to try and see how they get on.
With the current fluctuations some people will be making a mint, others losing the shirt of their back.
Either way the trading volumes are huge today so plenty doing business.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 22, 2007, 03:50:28 PM
glad i took you advice muppett could get them shares today for €3.90 would have made a big loss
Well Deel Rover what price today?
The market is in such disarray that all sane methods of calculating the value of a business have gone out the window. Some debt-free Irish companies now have a market cap much lower than their free cash reserves!
Towards the end of the property boom the expression 'silly money' was commonly heard to describe prices.
I am beginning to believe stocks are now at silly prices by any logical analysis.
The question is though in a credit crunch do you part with your cash?
Thursday, July 3, 2008, Irish Times
Developer believed to have lost €20m on Aer Lingus shares
LEADING DEVELOPER Liam Carroll is believed to have sold more than 31 million shares in Aer Lingus yesterday at an estimated loss of about €20 million.
It is understood Mr Carroll sold the Aer Lingus shares at €1.15 apiece, having accumulated his holding earlier this year at prices close to €2 a share.
The share deal, described by many stockbrokers yesterday as a "fire sale", would have yielded Mr Carroll €40.25 million. The shares were sold by Goodbody Stockbrokers.
When contacted by The Irish Times about the transaction, Mr Carroll said: "I never comment to newspapers."
As a result of the global credit crunch, a significant number of property developers in Ireland have been placed under pressure recently by banks to cash in assets and reduce their debts.
It is not known whether this might have prompted Mr Carroll's decision to sell his Aer Lingus shareholding at a loss.
Mr Carroll is one of Ireland's wealthiest developers. His Dublin-based company Zelderbridge has more than 60 subsidiaries.
As the airline does not pay a dividend, Mr Carroll was reported to have invested in Aer Lingus at the turn of the year as a play on the possible redevelopment of its headquarters at Dublin airport.
Some of Mr Carroll's Aer Lingus shares were yesterday snapped up by Ryanair. In a statement issued last night, the Michael O'Leary-led airline said it had acquired an additional 3.5 million shares in Aer Lingus yesterday to take its stake to 29.82 per cent.
Aer Lingus's share price fell by 16 per cent in Dublin yesterday to a record low of €1.15.
Mr Carroll is reported to have spent about €400 million in the past couple of years buying shares in Irish-listed companies. He owns more than 29 per cent of food group Greencore and ferry operator Irish Continental Group.
He also has a stake of just under 10 per cent in property group McInerney, and a holding of 4-5 per cent in insurer FBD.
Rumours circulated yesterday that Mr Carroll had also sold some stock in these companies, but this could not be confirmed.
Greencore's shares declined yesterday by more than 7 per cent, while McInerney was down by 26.5 per cent, and FBD and ICG were both down 4.4 per cent.
Mr Carroll has tended to acquire shares in Irish public companies through contracts for difference (CFDs), which do not require him to declare his interests.
I'm trying to make this post without the benefit of hindsight............
It's the number 1 rule of investment to have a diversified portfolio as possible. Now I appreciate that Carrol appeared to invest in different sectors, but why oh why would you invest so much in one country.
I'm only a tin pot investor, but even I have a worldwide geograhipcal spread.
Unless of course he also has a shit load of investments in foreign countries as well, though it doesn't appear so based on the article.
i would be very surprised if Carroll was in trouble, he would have developed sites at the very start of the boom and he bought the sites for f**k all and spent the absolute minimum buildig them He was the main driver of the inner city apartment blocks so his returns would have multplied. He has one huge development under construction at the moment in the south docklands which would be taking up a lot of resourses but he has shelved a lot of his other residental works. But it definite doesnt look good that he is raising cash in this way.
If he does go wallop there will be very few tears shed for him.
Quote from: muppet on July 03, 2008, 10:50:45 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 22, 2007, 03:50:28 PM
glad i took you advice muppett could get them shares today for €3.90 would have made a big loss
Well Deel Rover what price today?
The market is in such disarray that all sane methods of calculating the value of a business have gone out the window. Some debt-free Irish companies now have a market cap much lower than their free cash reserves!
Towards the end of the property boom the expression 'silly money' was commonly heard to describe prices.
I am beginning to believe stocks are now at silly prices by any logical analysis.
The question is though in a credit crunch do you part with your cash?
€3.20 today muppett took yor advice the last time and left well enough alone , i remember in january i was listening to a sunday business programme and they were saying to buy boi shares that they were great value at under €10 you could buy them today for around €5.20
Here's the 3-month share price trend for Ireland's only 'banker' stock - CRH.
(http://www.lse.co.uk/tools/shares/GetGraph.asp?gcode=CRH&mode=ShareProfileNew)
Oh, and this time last year they were worth over €37.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on July 03, 2008, 12:47:19 PM
Quote from: muppet on July 03, 2008, 10:50:45 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 22, 2007, 03:50:28 PM
glad i took you advice muppett could get them shares today for €3.90 would have made a big loss
Well Deel Rover what price today?
The market is in such disarray that all sane methods of calculating the value of a business have gone out the window. Some debt-free Irish companies now have a market cap much lower than their free cash reserves!
Towards the end of the property boom the expression 'silly money' was commonly heard to describe prices.
I am beginning to believe stocks are now at silly prices by any logical analysis.
The question is though in a credit crunch do you part with your cash?
€3.20 today muppett took yor advice the last time and left well enough alone , i remember in january i was listening to a sunday business programme and they were saying to buy boi shares that they were great value at under €10 you could buy them today for around €5.20
shares taking another hammering today Boi down another 10% can be bought for €4.50 .
if you were interested in buying in BOI, I certainly wouldnt be buying at the minute....there will be worse falls than todays i would think
Apparently Carroll dumped his FBD holdings last week too. He sold them for approx €16 per share, don't know what the bought for, but they were offered €37 a share a few months ago from some dutch crowd in a takeover attempt. Carroll's investments are primarily for property plays or when he hears wind of possible takeover attempts, such as FBD and Aer Lingus. It's paid off well in the past for him as he made quite a few quid in the Jury's takeover attempt 3 years ago.
What's not known is whether he had to sell last week or whether he was doing the hardest thing in investment, taking a loss, there's not many of us who are much good at that, but it is often the most important thing.
I see as well that there are rumours that Sean Quinn is sitting on a massive paper loss on investments in Anglo Irish Bank, rumours in the Sunday Papers suggest that he could be looking at a half a billion loss since the start of the year.
The reality is everybody is sitting on a loss at this stage - its just a matter of how much and how much can you stand.
At under €5 BoI must be a steal. If nothing else they will become a target for a takeover. All you need is the guts to buy and the ability to wait for the upturn. The market seems to be full of lemmings who are now in a complete panic totally swayed by rumours and those with the courage to buy and the ability to wait could do really well for themselves.
Stock markets have never been for the faint hearted and one should only 'play' with money you can afford.
For a complete novice, how easy is it to deal in shares online???
Carroll must feel that Aer Lingus will drop even further and is cutting his losses now. The airline industry is fecked worldwide with the price of fuel so high, most U.S airlines are under severe pressure at the moment. Carroll could move back into the market later and snap up some bargains that will be out there such as the banks, Aer Lingus etc.
Quote from: zoyler on July 08, 2008, 05:16:32 PM
The reality is everybody is sitting on a loss at this stage - its just a matter of how much and how much can you stand.
At under €5 BoI must be a steal. If nothing else they will become a target for a takeover. All you need is the guts to buy and the ability to wait for the upturn. The market seems to be full of lemmings who are now in a complete panic totally swayed by rumours and those with the courage to buy and the ability to wait could do really well for themselves.
Stock markets have never been for the faint hearted and one should only 'play' with money you can afford.
Possibly you're right, then again you could be wrong!!
The problem is that banks are so exposed to the property sector, boi also have huge exposure to the UK property sector too - not good. Irish banks are hit two ways because not only have they lent to individuals to buy property that is now worth less than the outstanding mortgage, but more worryingly they may also be exposed to massive hits if developers were to default on the monies lent to them to buy land banks, and of course if nobody is buying (not helped by banks being forced to make it harder to borrow) then how can developers pay back the banks? That's before we even look at the possibility that banks may also have exposure to more US sub-prime junk.
It's also thought that in the current climate, there is no possibility that anyone would attempt a takeover of an irish bank, for the precise reasons outlined above.
Quote from: Croí na hÉireann on July 08, 2008, 05:23:33 PM
For a complete novice, how easy is it to deal in shares online???
Very easy.
I set up an investment account with my banker (RBC) and I have complete trading functionality over the net. I get charged a fixed fee per trade ($30CAD) which can be lessened, if certain trading volume triggers are met. I find the fees associated with managing my account very reasonable when considered relative to the huge capital losses I'm racking up!! I do still think now is a great time to do some speculating though...
If Bank Of Ireland shares have fallen from from about €15 to €5 in a year, I wonder what are the chances of them rallying upwards again?
I used to watch Elan shares plunge like that and was often tempted to buy when they hit rock bottom.
they have a dividend yield of 12%, so the lack of confidence in them is astounding. They still have substantial monies out on loan that they aren't likely to see . i'd wait a bit, i think they'll fall a bit further yet.
the likes of Student Loan companies or their ultimare parent companies would be worth an investment IMO
i give up on trying to figure out the irish banks, however the market is never/rarely wrong. right now the banks have no friends and the market see nothing good in the irish economy. as indiana says they have a dividend yield of 12% but they need liquidity big time so you can bet they may slosh that dividend in the next year. for punters its worth remembering that the two banks are now valued at e17b a fall of e45b from their peak. worst case sooner or later a bigger fish is going to buy them up and a few bob will be made
In addition to the 12% dividend for Bank of Ireland, they haven't screwed over shareholders who opted to invest their most recent divident to buy more BoI shares at €8.50 a pop. I done that a couple of months back to only get a letter about a week ago to explain that given that the share price had dropped to €5.50 (at the time) that they would not be re-investing dividends on behalf of shareholders and would instead be paying cash only. I don't see what was in it for them but i was well glad of it.
Can't understand their share price though. Their property assets are worth more than their market capitalisation never mind anything else about price earning ratios etc. In addition they have no exposure to sub-primes in the states and last year only 15 houses were re-possessed by the banks in this country, having increased to approx only 100 so far this year. The current price i feel has almost factored in the worst case scenario (and the central bank has already made soundings about making capital available to the banks) so am very tempted to buy a few more of them
Quote from: The Iceman on July 09, 2008, 08:01:38 PM
the likes of Student Loan companies or their ultimare parent companies would be worth an investment IMO
I think the UK govt own the student loan company
Quote from: magickingdom on July 09, 2008, 09:06:13 PM
i give up on trying to figure out the irish banks, however the market is never/rarely wrong.
So, why have the shares fallen so low and so quickly? ;)
who says the shares are low fosb? last year is a different world and the current share price is supposed to be a derivative of all future earnings at todays prices. if the banks current p/e ratio (multiple of earnings in total share price) is something like 6 or 7 instead of 15 or 16 then the market see the banks profits probably falling by 50% in the next 12 months. thats what the market has priced in to todays share price. as for no exposure to us sub prime, the banks have huge exposure to property in ireland which is among the most overpriced in the world.
Quote from: magickingdom on July 10, 2008, 09:29:48 PM
who says the shares are low fosb? last year is a different world and the current share price is supposed to be a derivative of all future earnings at todays prices. if the banks current p/e ratio (multiple of earnings in total share price) is something like 6 or 7 instead of 15 or 16 then the market see the banks profits probably falling by 50% in the next 12 months. thats what the market has priced in to todays share price. as for no exposure to us sub prime, the banks have huge exposure to property in ireland which is among the most overpriced in the world.
Overpriced by...
the market
mk! I'm simply of the belief that the market gets it horribly wrong more often than it doesn't, and the boom and bust cycles are testimony to that. Regardless of whether you think the banks' shares are now low or not, they are a great deal lower than they were a short time ago: so either the market was completly wrong then, or it is completely wrong now.
i take your point fear, i wasnt very clear when i said the market is never/rarely (insider information) wrong. what i was trying to say was that if you have boi shares and theyre quoted at 4.50 thats all your going to get overpriced/underpriced or not is another story..
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 10, 2008, 12:03:50 AM
Quote from: The Iceman on July 09, 2008, 08:01:38 PM
the likes of Student Loan companies or their ultimare parent companies would be worth an investment IMO
I think the UK govt own the student loan company
Freddie Mac owns the Student loans in the U.S here
I see that Sean Quinn has confirmed he's sitting on a paper loss of 1bn from his Anglo Irish shares, fortunately it's reckoned he had 4.7bn to start with. Swings and roundabouts, 4 years ago they reckoned he worth a little over a billion, so he's done okay until now.
Very good but a bit long, scroll down to the bold for what I think is the interesting part.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4346962.ece (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article4346962.ece)
From The TimesJuly 17, 2008
The real reason why bankers feel so gloomy
We could be on the verge on the greatest slump of all time... if you ignore the encouraging economic figures Anatole Kaletsky
According to the overwhelming majority of financial analysts in the City of London and Wall Street, the world is now in the worst economic crisis since the 1930s. Anyone who doubted this cataclysmic consensus - and I must admit that I played down the credit crunch, describing it initially as a "storm in a teacup" - must surely be eating humble pie after the events of last weekend, when the two largest financial institutions in the world - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, despite the US Government effectively guaranteeing their debts. The debts of these two US mortgage insurers come to about $5 trillion, equivalent to the combined national incomes of Britain and France.
If the US Government can no longer be trusted to meet its financial obligations with dollars that it can print on its own printing presses at will, then there really is no place to hide. That seemed to be the predominant view in the markets, reflected in a doubling of the cost of insuring the US Treasury's own bonds against default. In such conditions, the only rational course for savers and investors is to pull their money out of all banks or investment funds, whether in New York, London, Frankfurt, Hong Kong or Tokyo, and to put every spare penny into oil, gold or other commodities that might have some lasting value after paper money is totally debased, along with all shares, bonds, mortgages and other financial obligations based ultimately on nothing more substantial than elaborately printed paper signed by politicians and central bankers.
This is more or less what happened on Monday and Tuesday when stock markets around the world plunged in response to the US Treasury's seemingly unsuccessful attempts to restore confidence in its mortgage insurers, while oil hit a record high and gold jumped to within a few points of the all-time high that it had reached just before the rescue of Bear Stearns and Northern Rock.
But before you conclude that the sky really is falling in and that relatively optimistic commentators (including me) have been confounded, consider the following. In the past few weeks, US industrial production, consumer spending and trade figures have all come in much stronger than expected and now point unambiguously to accelerating economic growth, rather than a further slowdown. On Tuesday the Federal Reserve Board published a sharply upgraded estimate of 2008 growth. The near-recession growth range of 0.3 to 1.2 per cent predicted in April is now seen as a much more respectable 1.0 to 1.6 per cent. Even the gloomiest private economists on Wall Street now expect second-quarter GDP figures to show a strong recovery to growth of around 3 per cent.
Looking at the recent indicators, the clouds are now much darker over Britain and the eurozone than the US. The correction in housing, which has now been running for almost two years in America, started in Europe only a few months ago. The main effects of the slowdown, in terms of falling house prices, lost jobs and weak consumer spending, are only just starting to be felt in Europe - while in America the worst has probably passed. For Britain, the outlook is arguably even worse than for the rest of Europe because its economy is so dependent on financial services and housing, the sectors suffering the biggest hits.
Meanwhile, government spending, the only other sector of the British economy growing strongly until a year ago, is also bound to suffer a severe squeeze as the public finances go from bad to worse.
Having said all this, however, there is nothing even in the British figures to suggest a disaster on the scale expected by most City economists - or implied by the recent collapse of shares in British banks.
What then is going on? There are two possible explanations for the total decoupling between the economic figures and the financial markets. The first is that investors are dispassionately analysing and forecasting the future, while economists such as myself and, more importantly, those at the Fed and the Bank of England, are indulging in wishful thinking, based on mechanistic projections from the recent past.
The second possibility is the polar opposite - that the financial markets are caught up in one of their periodic bouts of emotional, straight-line projections of recent losses. Looking at the perverse responses to economic news recently in the world's most important financial markets, it seems quite plausible that investors today are as blind to economic realities as they were in the dot-com bubble, the Enron panic and the sub-prime mortgage boom.
But there is another, structural, reason why financial expectations may be out of tune with reality - the "hyper-finance" revolution in the banking system.
To see what I mean consider the following example. In the old world before the arrival of "hyper-finance", if a family wanted a £100,000 mortgage, they would simply go to the Halifax and borrow £100,000. Now consider what happens in the new financial world. The family would borrow £100,000 from Northern Rock, which would sell £100,000 of bonds to hedge funds, which buy these with £100,000 borrowed from Bear Stearns, their prime broker, which would raise this money by selling £100,000 of commercial paper to Citibank, which would then borrow £100,000 through the inter-bank market from Halifax.
So now the original £100,000 mortgage transaction has created £500,000 of new debts.
In principle, this entire chain of transactions could be squeezed, like a concertina, back to the original £100,000 transaction between the householder and Halifax, reducing the total amount of credit in the banking system by 80 per cent. This huge reduction in credit would do no great harm either to the homeowner or the ultimate lender, but eliminating all those intermediate transactions would devastate jobs and profits within the banks.
The upshot is that the main people suffering pay cuts and job losses in the present crisis are bankers, rather than industrial workers as in previous slowdowns.
Not surprisingly, this gives financiers a jaundiced view of the world. Nobody can say for sure whether financiers or economists will turn out to be right about the present crisis. Past experience suggests that financial market expectations are usually wrong at or near-cyclical turning points. It is always possible, of course, that the present financial panic really will be different from every other and will trigger the greatest economic crisis of all time.
But as they say in the markets, the four most expensive words in the English language are "this time is different".
looks like it was one of the worst days ever in the history of irish shares , irish banks took a hammering with anglo dropping 48% :o
Brian lenehin had to come out this morning and guarantee the safety of the deposits of the 6 major irish banks for 2 years
reland guarantees all bank deposits
The Associated PressPublished: September 30, 2008
DUBLIN, Ireland: Ireland issued a sweeping guarantee Tuesday to all deposits in the country's banks in a bid to stop an unprecedented stock-market run against the Irish financial sector.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said all deposits in Ireland's six locally registered banks would be guaranteed by the taxpayer in the event that any failed.
The banks are Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, Anglo-Irish Bank Corp., Irish Life and Permanent, Irish Nationwide Building Society and the Educational Building Society.
The step raised a week-old government promise to insure the first €100,000 (US$145,000) in deposits. It followed Monday's record-setting 12.7 percent drop in the Irish Stock Exchange — and rumors that millionaire depositors were withdrawing funds from Dublin-based banks because the government protection was inadequate.
Tuesday's guarantee also applies to all of a bank's own loans and debts, so if the bank cannot pay its creditors, the taxpayer would cover the bill.
"This very important initiative by the government is designed to safeguard the Irish financial system and to remedy a serious disturbance in the economy caused by the recent turmoil in the international financial markets," Lenihan said in a statement.
Lenihan said the guarantee would be valid until at least Sept. 28, 2010. He said the government-backed insurance was "being provided at a charge to the institutions concerned and will be subject to specific terms and conditions so that the taxpayers' interest can be protected." He declined to detail the charges.
Monday's 481-point drop to 3,304 shattered the previous worst day in Irish trading: Oct. 28, 1987, when the Dublin market fell 8.8 percent in the wake of Black Monday.
Ireland's market has been among the worst performers in Europe over the past year because it is heavily weighted in favor of financial stocks. As of Monday the index had lost 72 percent of its value since reaching its record high of 11,815 17 months ago.
The big four financial stocks in Ireland were hit the worst Monday: Allied Irish Banks PLC, down 16.7 percent to €5.00 (US$7.20); Bank of Ireland, down 17.8 percent to €3.37 (US$4.85); the top mortgage provider, Irish Life & Permanent PLC, down 38 percent to €3.57 (US$5.14); and niche corporate lender Anglo-Irish Bank Corp., down 46 percent to €2.30 (US$3.31).
Ireland's financial sector has yet to suffer the kind of government bailouts or fire-sale takeovers experienced in Britain and the U.S., its major two trading partners. But analysts said the plummeting value of Irish banks was raising fears about growing bad loans in their own books, and could make them candidates for takeover or insolvency.
Holy feck!!! You Free Staters better start praying non of the banks go under. With a E7 billion hole already in this years finances, this could brakrupt the place for a decade.
think i'll have to change the title of this thread to will it ever be a good time to buy shares again
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 09, 2008, 05:30:55 PM
think i'll have to change the title of this thread to will it ever be a good time to buy shares again
Surely the bottom is nigh and when the banks shares have been diluted by the rights issues and part nationalisation, surely then it's time to go back in again.
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 16, 2008, 03:36:57 PM
I see that Sean Quinn has confirmed he's sitting on a paper loss of 1bn from his Anglo Irish shares, fortunately it's reckoned he had 4.7bn to start with. Swings and roundabouts, 4 years ago they reckoned he worth a little over a billion, so he's done okay until now.
What has quinn lost now?
Quote from: the Deel Rover on October 09, 2008, 05:30:55 PM
think i'll have to change the title of this thread to will it ever be a good time to buy shares again
a lot of people are still trading - day to day stuff - maybe leave it over night on a week day take the chance -definitely dont leave it over a weekend because we don't know what can happen
made a few $ on wachovia in recent weeks and then lost some $ but thats the name of the game
Quote from: Tyrones own on November 22, 2007, 06:36:04 PM
Looking at Washinton Mutual and Bank Of America to lead the way......Down
Intermediate term, Freddie Mac was a nice hit during the week ;D
I hope you got out in time.
what rate of tax do i pay on profit made from selling shares in ireland? Am i exempt the first 1200 euro and pay 23% on the rest?
European and Asian markets have rallied in response to efforts by world leaders to end the recent financial turmoil.
London's FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax index all jumped more than 6%, tracking earlier gains on Asian markets.
Major central banks said they would offer financial institutions an unlimited amount of short-term dollar loans to help stem the crisis.
EU leaders said on Sunday no big bank would be be allowed to fail.
UK shares got a boost after the government said it would inject up to £37bn of taxpayer cash into Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds TSB and HBOS.
The FTSE 100 index was up 268.56 points, or 6.83%, at 4,200.62 points.
BIG BOUNCE EXPECTED TODAY.
Quote from: orangeman on October 13, 2008, 09:34:15 AM
European and Asian markets have rallied in response to efforts by world leaders to end the recent financial turmoil.
London's FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax index all jumped more than 6%, tracking earlier gains on Asian markets.
Major central banks said they would offer financial institutions an unlimited amount of short-term dollar loans to help stem the crisis.
EU leaders said on Sunday no big bank would be be allowed to fail.
UK shares got a boost after the government said it would inject up to £37bn of taxpayer cash into Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds TSB and HBOS.
The FTSE 100 index was up 268.56 points, or 6.83%, at 4,200.62 points.
BIG BOUNCE EXPECTED TODAY.
I'd rather see smaller sustained growth over a few months than a big bounce in one day.
A sharp rise after good news will lead to another big drop at the first sign of bad news.
Quote from: muppet on October 13, 2008, 09:52:05 AM
Quote from: orangeman on October 13, 2008, 09:34:15 AM
European and Asian markets have rallied in response to efforts by world leaders to end the recent financial turmoil.
London's FTSE 100, France's Cac 40 and Germany's Dax index all jumped more than 6%, tracking earlier gains on Asian markets.
Major central banks said they would offer financial institutions an unlimited amount of short-term dollar loans to help stem the crisis.
EU leaders said on Sunday no big bank would be be allowed to fail.
UK shares got a boost after the government said it would inject up to £37bn of taxpayer cash into Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds TSB and HBOS.
The FTSE 100 index was up 268.56 points, or 6.83%, at 4,200.62 points.
BIG BOUNCE EXPECTED TODAY.
I'd rather see smaller sustained growth over a few months than a big bounce in one day.
A sharp rise after good news will lead to another big drop at the first sign of bad news.
TRUE
three-four sharp rises - i'll sell - the big fall - i'll buy and then you can have your " smaller sustained growth over a few months" :)
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 13, 2008, 10:06:55 AM
three-four sharp rises - i'll sell - the big fall - i'll buy and then you can have your " smaller sustained growth over a few months" :)
That greedy thinking has us in this mess.
Agree but i didn't make anything out of the mess. My shares dropped 70% in value since xmas 2007.Which i still have so i am trying to recover money i've lost.
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 13, 2008, 10:12:06 AM
Agree but i didn't make anything out of the mess. My shares dropped 70% in value since xmas 2007.Which i still have so i am trying to recover money i've lost.
Sorry I didn't mean you personally.
The bankers and in particular the hedge funds are guilty of this. I expected some one to come on saying that 'it is the essence of the markets' (the neo-cons are in bed) which it is, but the essence of the markets shouldn't be allowed to force the taxpayer to bail it out to the tune of €250,000 per head.
didn't take it personally - just thought i make a comment on anything i can (like alot of posters) and get my post numbers up....... I need this recovery bad as i am travelling around Oz and running out of cash so instead of going to the casino i've decided a short term investment in shares might be the answer. If i make a grand its an extra month i get enjoying Oz
Quote from: PadraicHenryPearse on October 13, 2008, 08:31:45 AM
what rate of tax do i pay on profit made from selling shares in ireland? Am i exempt the first 1200 euro and pay 23% on the rest?
CGT rate in Ireland is 20%. The first €1,270 is exempt per annum.
You can also offset any losses to cover gains. Therefore if you have a realised gain and an unrealised loss, it might be worth selling the relevant shares to crystallise your loss, and so reduce/eliminate your tax (you can then buy back more of the shares if you want).
If you had unused capital losses in prior years, they can be carried forward to offset current year gains (note current year losses cannot be used to offset prior year gains).
Anyone sitting on a capital gain (not too many I guess!) might want to consider selling before tomorrow, as one of the Budget rumours is an increase in the CGT and CAT rates from 20% to 25%.
There is also a 23% rate, and that applies to gains made on "offshore funds". Thats a bit more complicated......
Is this a good time to put up taxes ?? Is it ever a good time ? But in the middle of a recession, is it necessary ?
looks like banking shares are still dropping aib shares under €3 angl just under €2 , Sean Quinn must be sick as a parrott when he looks at the anglo shares
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
Dipped the toes yesterday
want to, how do i go about buying shares?
i just want to buy them and let them lye there long term.
Quote from: lfdown2 on October 31, 2008, 01:50:57 PM
want to, how do i go about buying shares?
i just want to buy them and let them lye there long term.
Still not out of the woods. I'm guessing there will be more bad news before Christmas.
Iceland is goosed. Ukraine, Argentina (again) and Hungary are on the brink. Brasil, Mexico, South Korea, Singapore are reciving emergency loans from the IMF while Japan and Australia have already recevied funds. Beware of the Bear bounce. It can come back to earth with a bang.
Not a bad idea though to buy and hold long term as they will surely rise eventually, as long as you don't have to sell in the near future.
Lots of banks offer online share trading. Can be quite expensive that way if you plan a lot of transaction but if only for the odd one try AIB online or any of the others. Bullbearings and other online companies offer a decent service also.
Quote from: lfdown2 on October 31, 2008, 01:50:57 PM
want to, how do i go about buying shares?
i just want to buy them and let them lye there long term.
Friend of mine uses Scottrade, not sure if you have to be a U.S resident.
http://www.scottrade.com/
Now is a good time to buy Gold.
Quote from: lfdown2 on October 31, 2008, 01:50:57 PM
want to, how do i go about buying shares?
i just want to buy them and let them lye there long term.
http://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.jsp
Quote from: Over the Bar on November 01, 2008, 09:37:02 PM
Now is a good time to buy Gold.
I'm not so sure ... is it not near record highs ? and thus in saying it is a good time to buy it implies that there is a good bit more falling to do for the markets ?
As for shares, possibly a bit of a dead cat bounce alright but reasons to be positive:
- A 1% fall in interest rates pumps 2% of GDP back into peoples pockets through lesser loan/mortgage repayments (the 2% figure obviously only applying to Ireland, less for other ECB countries). We've already seen a half a percent interest rate fall with almost certainly the bulk of a full percentgage point if not more to yet come from the ECB given that all indicators are that inflation could fall below 1% by mid next year.
- As mentioned, inflation will be at much more reasonable rates.
- Ireland will benefit much more than most from the huge cash injections in the UK and us due to our disproportionate percentage of exports that go to those markets.
Reasons we're fcuked in the long term:
- Public sector pay bill .... more so the pension liability. The reality here is something is going to have to give in the next couple of years - say an extra very significant extra social insurance tax for public sector employees of 10% along with a 5-10% pay cut accross the board as per what Holland done a couple of months back. What will probably happen is the usual cycle in Irish politics: election held, FG get in and make the tough decisions, another election held as people have difficulty stomaching the changes and people vote FF back in as they associate the party with the good times, etc etc ..... If the tough decisions are not made, we will see the IMF running the country within 3-5 years and then we're truely fcuked - they would pull us out of the ECB, put a massive hike on interest rates (look at Iceland - 6% interest rise, and Hungary), increase corporation tax to EU norms (we know the impact that that would have) and increase PAYE rates accross the boards
With the election over now is a good time to buy stocks for the long term.
Look at Caterpillar, John Deere and Walgreens.
Here is a guy who knows stocks well www.cramers-mad-money.com
Cramer is notoriously erratic.
Has Bank of Ireland reached the bottom ? Can they fall to nothing ?
Bank of Ireland shares plummet to 83 cent
Monday, 17 November 2008 17:49
Bank of Ireland's share price dropped to 83 cent today, losing more than 25 cent and closing more than 23% down.
The bank's shares were the subject of a significant sell-off after it announced it was suspending paying dividends in a results announcement last week.
In February 2007, Bank of Ireland was valued at more than €18 billion and its shares were trading at well above €18 a share.
AdvertisementBut in recent times, the bank has been the victim of a collapse in confidence in world banking, aggravated by acute concern over its exposure to property lending here.
After the announcement of a 32% drop in profits in the six months to the end of September and the suspension of dividend payments last week, its share price began to drift lower to finish the week at €1.08.
This morning that suspension of dividends has seen the sell-off gain momentum with the share price drifting to 99 cent, then to 97 and down to 93 and then 90 before regaining to stand at €1.05 this afternoon.
Funds, which hold the shares long term to earn income from dividends, have had no option but to sell. But they are selling into a market with no appetite for Irish banks and where short selling - which encourages investors to buy shares at low prices - is the subject of a ban from the Financial Regulator.
Tell me this lads if i bought shares in HBOS (75p a share roughly) and the company gets bought over will my shares still be valid??? HBOS will come good again thats a fact but it will take 18 months, they were £11 a share a few years ago...
Quote from: illdecide on November 18, 2008, 09:24:46 AM
Tell me this lads if i bought shares in HBOS (75p a share roughly) and the company gets bought over will my shares still be valid??? HBOS will come good again thats a fact but it will take 18 months, they were £11 a share a few years ago...
As far as I'd be concerned your shares will be valid. But that would depend on the detail of the proposed takeover bid.
But you should be fine.
What do you think of Bank of Ireland Shares ? Surely they have to come good again as well ?
been watching boi for a while, i would rather they started to rise again before getting them, because imo although they will come back it may be after a gov bailout and surely if that happens your shares are fooked ???
Quote from: lfdown2 on November 18, 2008, 09:45:00 AM
been watching boi for a while, i would rather they started to rise again before getting them, because imo although they will come back it may be after a gov bailout and surely if that happens your shares are fooked ???
By being diluted ?
yeah
i could be wrong though, happened once before
I'm ready to buy £1000 worth the shares in HBOS but it's the takeover thingie thats scaring me as i'm afraid of my shares being rid. There is no doubt that in 12 - 18 months when the mortages take off again that the HBOS shares will soar again but i wish this takeover shit would be resolved first before i buy...
Quote from: illdecide on November 18, 2008, 11:32:45 AM
I'm ready to buy £1000 worth the shares in HBOS but it's the takeover thingie thats scaring me as i'm afraid of my shares being rid. There is no doubt that in 12 - 18 months when the mortages take off again that the HBOS shares will soar again but i wish this takeover shit would be resolved first before i buy...
Hold on then - buy on the up !
QuoteThere is no doubt
Im afraid thats not true.
If there was no doubt the share price would be rising spectacularly already on the strength of it.
There is a good chance, but nothing is guaranteed in this game.
Keep your money in your pockets. Cash is God at the moment and if the experiences in Dublin at the moment with jobs being lost hand over fist is indicative of the country as a whole there imo is alot worse to come.
Save your money and imo buy a nice holiday home in Donegal/Kerry etc late next year as they will be the first properties to go on the cheap as people need the CASH.
Paddy Power offers odds on banks at 60c
Tuesday, 18th November 2008 02.09pm
Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering odds of 5/6 on that the share price of at least one of Ireland's banks will drop below 60c before the end of the year.
The offer compares after Bank of Ireland shares plummeted to 83 cent yesterday, a level not seen since the early 90s.
And today Anglo Irish Bank's shares dropped this morning to 92c.
The bookie said today that it was offering just 5/6 that any of the four quoted banks (Anglo, BoI, Irish Life and Permanent and AIB) plummet to a new low of below 60c before year end.
Paddy Power said: "Only last week we were betting on which of the top four would fall below 1 euro first - Bank of Ireland were 8/11 favourites - and now the goal posts have moved to below 60c.
"How low they go will surely depend on market confidence and the possibility of Government intervention."
Quote from: gerrykeegan on November 18, 2008, 02:28:00 PM
Paddy Power offers odds on banks at 60c
Tuesday, 18th November 2008 02.09pm
Bookmaker Paddy Power is offering odds of 5/6 on that the share price of at least one of Ireland's banks will drop below 60c before the end of the year.
The offer compares after Bank of Ireland shares plummeted to 83 cent yesterday, a level not seen since the early 90s.
And today Anglo Irish Bank's shares dropped this morning to 92c.
The bookie said today that it was offering just 5/6 that any of the four quoted banks (Anglo, BoI, Irish Life and Permanent and AIB) plummet to a new low of below 60c before year end.
Paddy Power said: "Only last week we were betting on which of the top four would fall below 1 euro first - Bank of Ireland were 8/11 favourites - and now the goal posts have moved to below 60c.
"How low they go will surely depend on market confidence and the possibility of Government intervention."
Looks like paddy will be paying out on that bet anglo shares dropped to .58 cent today
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 05, 2008, 12:13:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.
Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.
anglo shares down to .32 cents today what price did quinn buy them at ?
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2008, 04:42:08 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 05, 2008, 12:13:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.
Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.
[/b]
Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?
What do you think they should have done or should do ?
Quote from: orangeman on December 12, 2008, 04:24:07 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2008, 04:42:08 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 05, 2008, 12:13:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.
Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.
[/b]
Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?
What do you think they should have done or should do ?
The bigger boys are now miniature versions of themselves. If that was the plan it wasn't a very good one.
3 months of in decision have seen the value of the Irish banks wiped out.
AIB €1,743,708,911
Anglo €286,501,970
BOI €883,690,491
IL&P €420,709,174
Total Value €3,334,610,546
Total exposure €400,000,000,000
Now leveraged 120 times.
They should have re-capitalised months ago. However there is the small matter of them having to raise the money to do so. Expect a tax hike in Jan/Feb.
BTW I reckon the UK policy of tax cuts is to protect the currency, not the economy. UK taxpayers will suffer in the long run, we will get the pain in the shorter term.
Those bankers have a lot to answer for and as Bogball says should fall on their swords.
While I'm on about uber-capitalists greedy deeds:
I can't believe the Government is considering selling Aer Lingus to O'Leary.
Cash in bank €1.3Billion
Heathrow slots €500 Million
42 Aircraft min €400 Million
Debt €0
Total break up value €2.2 Billion
Our Government are considering selling 25% for €145 Million.
Tarred and feathered.
Time running out for refinancing of banks (http://www.examiner.ie/story/?jp=QLSNSNOJAU&cat=)
Time running out for refinancing of banks
By Brian O'Mahony
IT looks increasingly likely that a resolution of the banking crisis will drag on into the new year.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan cannot have been too impressed when Irish Life & Permanent (IL&P) boss Denis Casey and the bank's chairwoman, Gillian Bowler, arrived with a top lawyer in tow last Friday week for his second round of talks with the banks.
It was reported that Mr Casey said the bank would sue if Mr Lenihan tried to force it into a merger.
That wasn't quite the case, but IL&P made the point that it, and not the country's finance minister, will be the architect its own destiny, in what most expect will still result in some restructuring.
How that process will pan out is anyone's guess but it looks likely that the days of Anglo Irish Bank are numbered.
It is clear from the continuing erosion of its share price since it published results last week that investors and analysts have lost confidence in the bank.
In Dublin yesterday AIB, the bank thought likeliest to survive on its own after the banks have been reconfigured, saw its share value dip below €2 for the first time since this crisis took hold.
It is yet another reminder that investors remain deeply concerned about the future status of the Irish banking sector.
The most immediate issue facing the banks sector is refinancing.
As the process drags on, fears are growing that some of the private equity houses like JC Flowers could walk if the talks stall.
It left Northern Rock in the lurch in Britain and the various investors could do the same here.
These guys don't hang around said one observer.
They know that JC Flowers and others walked away from the British market leaving Northern Rock stranded as it dallied over what re-funding option to take.
Uncertainty still persists about how the refunding of the banks will pan out.
One report this week says the State will cozy up to the private equity firms and that a deal will be done that could see a 50% dilution in Bank of Ireland and Anglo shares, if the latter survives as a separate entity.
It is generally agreed the State will become a holder of shares in the banks if this deal is to go ahead, the only question now is how much funding they will have to commit and for how long.
Most of the private equity people tend to stick around for three to four years, before cashing in holdings, based on their previous track records.
Even with the funding issue stalled the banks are still under pressure.
If they are to borrow money over three to five years, that takes them beyond the state guarantee, which runs to end September 2010.
The banks will have little choice but to square up to this problem pretty soon if they are to avoid doing long-term damage to the Irish financial system and to the economy in general.
In an analysis this week, McEvoy & Associates raised the spectre of the overseas equity groups getting frustrated with the lack of progress with the capital refinancing of the banks.
They could leave the Irish banks, whose values have been utterly decimated by the collapse in the economy and the crippling impact of the global credit crunch, to struggle on without the badly needed capital.
In that case the pressure on the Government and the Irish-owned funds, represented by IAIM, interested in supporting the system could be enormous.
Concerns are growing that some of the top private equity houses will not hang around indefinitely, if the ongoing talks fail to produce some investment formula.
The danger exists that the Government's options on the banking crisis "are closing down fast", McAvoy said.
The big worry is if any of the Irish banks fail, the level of Government borrowing could soar.
This has not been lost on the global sovereign debt markets and the potential threat to the cost of funding going forward is another emerging threat.
In essence McAvoy fears the re-capitalisation dilemma is moving in such a way that it has the potential to do damage to the national finances as well as the economy at this stage.
I cant believe the arrogance of IL&P. Lenihan should pull the Government guarantee and see how they get on.
Quote from: magickingdom on November 22, 2007, 10:13:52 PM
seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..
Did you ever eat that hat magickingdom?!
Was reading yesterday that sean quinns €1 billion investment in Anglo now worth only €40 million :o thats some loss in just over 1 year
Company Price Change Company Price Change
ALLIED IRISH BKS 1.65 -0.11 (-6.25%)
ANGLO IRISH BANK 0.28 -0.04 (-12.50%)
BANK OF IRELAND 0.67 -0.10 (-12.50%)
IRISH LIFE & PER 1.50 0.03 (1.97%)
Bank of ireland taking a hammering as well
Poor figures on the indexes as past few days - FTSE dwon to 4200 Dow at 8200 approx.
There was me thinking that things had a taken a turn for the better.
The Japanese have a saying for it:
"Don't try to catch a falling knife"
Grim US sales send markets lower
Wednesday, 14 January 2009 18:52
Official figures show that sales at US retailers fell at a steeper than expected rate in December, as a deteriorating economic environment forced consumers to cut back on spending during the Christmas holiday period.
The figures helped send world stock markets dowh sharply this afternoon. Wall Street markets were 3% lower, while the Dublin and London markets lost around 5%.
More details on how markets reacted
The Commerce Department said total retail sales fell 2.7% last month from the previous month after a revised 2.1% drop in November. November's fall was bigger than the previously reported 1.8%.
December's drop was the biggest since October last year when sales fell 3.4%. For the whole of 2008, sales eased 0.1%, the department said.
Excluding motor vehicles and parts, sales were down a record 3.1% after a revised 2.5% decline in November. Total sales, excluding cars, rose 3% in 2008. Petrol sales tumbled 15.9% after diving by a record 18.3% in November.
Quote from: muppet on December 12, 2008, 09:11:28 PM
Quote from: orangeman on December 12, 2008, 04:24:07 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2008, 04:42:08 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 05, 2008, 12:13:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.
Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.
[/b]
Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?
What do you think they should have done or should do ?
The bigger boys are now miniature versions of themselves. If that was the plan it wasn't a very good one.
3 months of in decision have seen the value of the Irish banks wiped out.
AIB €1,743,708,911
Anglo €286,501,970
BOI €883,690,491
IL&P €420,709,174
Total Value €3,334,610,546
Total exposure €400,000,000,000
Now leveraged 120 times.
They should have re-capitalised months ago. However there is the small matter of them having to raise the money to do so. Expect a tax hike in Jan/Feb.
BTW I reckon the UK policy of tax cuts is to protect the currency, not the economy. UK taxpayers will suffer in the long run, we will get the pain in the shorter term.
Those bankers have a lot to answer for and as Bogball says should fall on their swords.
While I'm on about uber-capitalists greedy deeds:
I can't believe the Government is considering selling Aer Lingus to O'Leary.
Cash in bank €1.3Billion
Heathrow slots €500 Million
42 Aircraft min €400 Million
Debt €0
Total break up value €2.2 Billion
Our Government are considering selling 25% for €145 Million.
Tarred and feathered.
AIB 528,396,640
BOI 352,472,003
IL&P 359,817,056
Anglo 164,909,622 (At closing prce - Probably worthless now)
Total value <€1.4 Billion and falling.
Quote from: muppet on January 19, 2009, 01:02:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 12, 2008, 09:11:28 PM
Quote from: orangeman on December 12, 2008, 04:24:07 PM
Quote from: muppet on December 07, 2008, 04:42:08 AM
Quote from: Bogball XV on December 05, 2008, 12:13:11 AM
Quote from: muppet on December 04, 2008, 11:08:00 PM
Closed at 48c.
This government should be tarred and feathered.
Why? Surely the muppets who run anglo should be falling on their swords at this stage? The bank is now worth approx 2.5% of it's (allbeit ridiculous value) at peak - yet Drumm and Fitzy think they've done nowt wrong ??? ???
If the bank was worth anything, another bank would have decided they were worth taking over, obviously yesterday's results and commentary didn't convince anyone, they'll hardly be in existence for too much longer all the same.
Why? Because the dogs on the street knew months ago that our banks were in serious trouble. Last september, when I suggested that the banking industry in this country would never be the same again, our banks were leveraged 40 times.
Now it is 100 times. The 2 Brians have watched a crisis develop into a catastrophe, and still they do nothing.
[/b]
Maybe this is a deliberate act on their part ? Maybe they want to force them into the arms of one of the bigger boys ?
What do you think they should have done or should do ?
The bigger boys are now miniature versions of themselves. If that was the plan it wasn't a very good one.
3 months of in decision have seen the value of the Irish banks wiped out.
AIB €1,743,708,911
Anglo €286,501,970
BOI €883,690,491
IL&P €420,709,174
Total Value €3,334,610,546
Total exposure €400,000,000,000
Now leveraged 120 times.
They should have re-capitalised months ago. However there is the small matter of them having to raise the money to do so. Expect a tax hike in Jan/Feb.
BTW I reckon the UK policy of tax cuts is to protect the currency, not the economy. UK taxpayers will suffer in the long run, we will get the pain in the shorter term.
Those bankers have a lot to answer for and as Bogball says should fall on their swords.
While I'm on about uber-capitalists greedy deeds:
I can't believe the Government is considering selling Aer Lingus to O'Leary.
Cash in bank €1.3Billion
Heathrow slots €500 Million
42 Aircraft min €400 Million
Debt €0
Total break up value €2.2 Billion
Our Government are considering selling 25% for €145 Million.
Tarred and feathered.
AIB 528,396,640
BOI 352,472,003
IL&P 359,817,056
Anglo 164,909,622 (At closing prce - Probably worthless now)
Total value <€1.4 Billion and falling.
The drop in value is simply mind blowing !
Is now a good time to buy AIB shares ? 60 cent unbelieveable
Quote from: Shortso79 on January 19, 2009, 10:47:58 PM
Is now a good time to buy AIB shares ? 60 cent unbelieveable
It is possible the banks are now worthless. I was thinking of buying BOI when they went below €1 and AIB as late as last Friday. Boy am I glad. I think I will wait until I know the Irish banking sector is worth something. As I said they might not last the week.
its crazy - i'd say alot of bank employees invested in their shares and are sweating like mad now
RBS got the biggest subprime mountain when they bought ABN AMRO two years ago, although noone knew at the time.
Barclays were sniffing after the Dutch bank then too.
Quote from: Aaron Boone on January 19, 2009, 11:32:08 PM
RBS got the biggest subprime mountain when they bought ABN AMRO two years ago, although noone knew at the time.
Barclays were sniffing after the Dutch bank then too.
No one knows still .... The business still hasn't been legally been broken up yet. From what I can remember Barclays subprime debt is more than ABN and RBS put together.
It looks like all the banks are heading for full / part nationalisation. So even at 12p or whatever they are, they're probably worth nothing.
DOW suffered big losses on Barack's big day losing 332 points to drop below 8000 mark again.
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
go drink yer money
at least when you look back you know you squandered it a little more wisely than buying shares!
;) :D
Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 23, 2009, 11:08:15 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
go drink yer money
at least when you look back you know you squandered it a little more wisely than buying shares!
;) :D
:D sound lynchbhoy
Quote from: lynchbhoy on January 23, 2009, 11:08:15 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
go drink yer money
at least when you look back you know you squandered it a little more wisely than buying shares!
;) :D
Good enough advice.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Jeysus don't rely on me.
But it looks a bit like a bounce until the next bad news/scandal/resignation etc. You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
House prices and car prices are falling, sterling is falling also, you will have more bang for your buck in the near future. I'm hanging on a bit longer.
Must be a good time to buy shares - Brian Lenihan said on Newsnight last night that "the Irish economy is thriving".
Quote from: muppet on January 23, 2009, 01:24:49 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Jeysus don't rely on me.
But it looks a bit like a bounce until the next bad news/scandal/resignation etc. You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
House prices and car prices are falling, sterling is falling also, you will have more bang for your buck in the near future. I'm hanging on a bit longer.
Inclined to agree with you muppet, think there is a little more to go before its time to start buying again
Even if the market was more stable what sorts of figures would you invest?
Personnally i think there is no point investing a grand here and there in the stockmarkets, the return is too low for the risks involved or the long term returns.
Quote from: muppet on January 23, 2009, 01:24:49 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Jeysus don't rely on me.
But it looks a bit like a bounce until the next bad news/scandal/resignation etc. You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
With year end results etc coming in in the near future, there's going to be a lot of volatility - i hear that 'discussions' with auditors have been getting very heated recently ;)
aib up to €1.76 a jump of 45% today . i suppose if someone had a bit of money and took at gamble on them last week they would have been sitting on a nice profit
I was told if you want to buy shares at present to look at companies that are 'resession proof' eg Tescos, ASDA, etc.. Returns should not be as good as a bigger gamble but is a safe option. What do you think?
Barclays - end of February - watch this space
Quote from: muppet on January 23, 2009, 01:24:49 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 11:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Jeysus don't rely on me.
But it looks a bit like a bounce until the next bad news/scandal/resignation etc. You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
House prices and car prices are falling, sterling is falling also, you will have more bang for your buck in the near future. I'm hanging on a bit longer.
What's your strategy for trading Volatility?
QuoteQuote from: muppet on January 23, 2009, 05:24:49 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on January 23, 2009, 03:06:30 AM
Aib up 25% today now at .78 cent . Muppet what do we do
Jeysus don't rely on me.
But it looks a bit like a bounce until the next bad news/scandal/resignation etc. You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
QuoteWhat's your strategy for trading Volatility?
Bump..
I see.... Lads be very careful who you seek advice from and especially
on such a dangerous topic!
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 07:45:06 PM
I see.... Lads be very careful who you seek advice from and especially
on such a dangerous topic!
I have no strategy for trading on the volatility and wouldn't go near it. The experts are getting hammered so why would an amateur risk it.
Depends on your definition of an expert and why would you mention trading it then to a lad who
is looking up to you for advice?....that's what is dangerous here!
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 07:52:04 PM
Depends on your definition of an expert and why would you mention trading it then to a lad who
is looking up to you for advice?....that's what is dangerous here!
You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
You highlighted the first half of the sentence only. Did you not see the second half?
His question referred to a recent jump in Irish bank stocks. I was mentioned 'trade on the volatility' to point out that was the type of investment he was talking about. And I clearly pointed out that it was dangerous. Also it was opinion not advice.
I assume your on about me To . I know i said muppett what will i do the reason i did so was because muppett is on this thread quite a bit however to tell you the truth i ll not be touching the shares the way they are at the moment and in fairness to muppett his advice all along has been to stay away from them
I suppose that's my point...simply because he's on the thread doesn't make him an expert
and with that said, we don't know who is reading this stuff or what they're liable to do
with said opinions, i just wanted to clarify that...a disclaimer if you like.
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 08:29:58 PM
I suppose that's my point...simply because he's on the thread doesn't make him an expert
and with that said, we don't know who is reading this stuff or what they're liable to do
with said opinions, i just wanted to clarify that...a disclaimer if you like.
Tyrone's Own I have pointed out in many posts that I am not an expert. I have a big interest and losts of money invested, but not an expert.
We've had a dot com bubble burst. a property bubble burrst ..... whats the next bubble ?
For me, its any company in the green industry. Literally trillions of dollars coming into circulation from central banks that has to find a home and even in the US, Obama is a big advocate for green energy so very high level prediction ....... any half decent green company anywhere will see a major spike over the next 3 to 5 years before the bubble bursts there.
But then again this is from a punter who put the equivalent of a couple of months wages in BOI at 92 cent ::)
Cash is King at the moment. We aint seen nothing yet imo. Jobs are being lost at a terrible rate here in Dublin. Just heard today that a mate was let go last week and another put on protective notice today. One is a joiner and another a QS.
If you really want to invest, historically Gold is usually the commodity investors flock to in times of distress.
Quote from: Canalman on January 30, 2009, 10:45:13 PM
Cash is King at the moment. We aint seen nothing yet imo. Jobs are being lost at a terrible rate here in Dublin. Just heard today that a mate was let go last week and another put on protective notice today. One is a joiner and another a QS.
If you really want to invest, historically Gold is usually the commodity investors flock to in times of distress.
[/b]
Seems you were right -
Bad week for the markets - looks like there's a lot of sorting out to do yet.
Start panning now
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html
I need some one to explain to me why shorting is allowed. It seems to me to be hugely responsible for the recent part of the mess we are in.
We know the for example Sean Quinn entered a transaction called a CFD. This involved him putting up a percentage of the overall money and the CFD house putting up the rest. Between them they bought 25% of Anglo. Fine.
The CFD house has fixed terms on the deal and does't care what happens the share price. If it is goes down Quinn picks up the tab as part of the deal. If it goes up Quinn wins and the CFD house gets it's money anyway.
So the CFD house has no incentive to see the price go up despite the fact that they technically own the shares. Now this is where the trouble really starts.
Because of this they 'loan' (for a fee of course) the shares to brokers. This allows the 'shorting' of shares whereby brokers bet on the share price falling. This can have the effect of driving down the share price and in recent times this seems to have happened dramatically.
In this case it appears that the shares bought by Quinn were used against Quinn. How can we have a system that can undermine investors with his own shares?
I don't know enough about it but if the various governments banned shorting temporarily recently there is obvious a problem with the practise. Should we consider banning it completely?
Short selling is not the cause of the downfall of the global economy. Neither is it the fault of the various financial derivatives such as Collateral Debt Obligations, Credit Derivate Swaps wtc.
The problem ultimately comes down to irresponsible lending by the financial institutions. Speculation plays a part but speculation is not what resulted in the Nationalisation of Anglo Irish.
When you have a willing buyer and a willing seller the fault can not be blamed at the product sold but rather the buyer or the seller and the information asymmetry that often exists.
There is very little difference between short selling and spread betting. It is risk and return. It can however distort the share price in instances and greater transparency is required.
Regarding Gold, whilst Gold is often the mainstay in tough times it seems to be at a pretty full value. Gold historically was important as countries held reserves in Gold to support there currency and pre-Bretton Woods Gold was the currency of the world. Nowadays less Gold reserves are held by Central Banks worldwide.
I would suggest buying Oil or OIl futures. I think it is currently around $40 per barrel. The majority of the Opec nations require a price of $30 to $40 per barrel to break even. The price will not go much lower but once the global economy recovers, granted this may be another 18 months away, then global production will increase and global demand for oil will also rise. Forecasts for oil prices are between $50 - $70 for oil this year alone. Although granted no one forecast oil prices of $200 per barrel last year. If you prepared to wait then oil is a good buy.
I am not authorised by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to provide financial advice and therefore any one who acts on the above advice is doing so entirely at their own risk and their actions are independent of me and no liability can result towards me
Quote from: Caid on February 21, 2009, 12:09:10 PM
Short selling is not the cause of the downfall of the global economy. Neither is it the fault of the various financial derivatives such as Collateral Debt Obligations, Credit Derivate Swaps wtc.
The problem ultimately comes down to irresponsible lending by the financial institutions. Speculation plays a part but speculation is not what resulted in the Nationalisation of Anglo Irish.
When you have a willing buyer and a willing seller the fault can not be blamed at the product sold but rather the buyer or the seller and the information asymmetry that often exists.
There is very little difference between short selling and spread betting. It is risk and return. It can however distort the share price in instances and greater transparency is required.
Regarding Gold, whilst Gold is often the mainstay in tough times it seems to be at a pretty full value. Gold historically was important as countries held reserves in Gold to support there currency and pre-Bretton Woods Gold was the currency of the world. Nowadays less Gold reserves are held by Central Banks worldwide.
I would suggest buying Oil or OIl futures. I think it is currently around $40 per barrel. The majority of the Opec nations require a price of $30 to $40 per barrel to break even. The price will not go much lower but once the global economy recovers, granted this may be another 18 months away, then global production will increase and global demand for oil will also rise. Forecasts for oil prices are between $50 - $70 for oil this year alone. Although granted no one forecast oil prices of $200 per barrel last year. If you prepared to wait then oil is a good buy.
I am not authorised by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) to provide financial advice and therefore any one who acts on the above advice is doing so entirely at their own risk and their actions are independent of me and no liability can result towards me
This is what I said. i didn't blame it for the entire crisis.
It seems to me to be hugely responsible for
the recent part of the mess we are in.
QuoteWhen you have a willing buyer and a willing seller the fault can not be blamed at the product sold but rather the buyer or the seller and the information asymmetry that often exists.
Are the shares not merely loaned? How would you feel if this was done with your house?
QuoteHow would you feel if this was done with your house?
I wouldn't really care less except that the trading in CFDs might distort my share price.
The shares aren't loaned. Ownership of the shares never moves.
Example
I have a house worth £100k. I own 50% and a CFD brokerage owns 50%.
Mr A thinks my house price is going to rise. He can't afford to buy the entire 50% stake but he wants to maximise his return. He therefore takes out a long CFD position with the broker. The broker will charge him a margin of say 10% (£5k). If the house price rises then Mr A will profit by the increase (less the margin/commission). If the house price falls then Mr A can lose a lot of money.
However, if the house price rises the value of my 50% will also rise and will be unaffected by what the CFD roker is doing with his 50% and vice versa with a house price fall.
The CFD broker, however, will not want to be exposed to fluctuations in the house price and will seek to lock in an arbitrage profit. To do this he will either seek another investor, Mr B, who wants a short position or he will trade in the underlying shares (trading in the underlying shares could have a demand/supply impact and affect the value of my 50% stake).
Mr B thinks house prices are going to fall and so takes out a short CFD position paying a 10% margin (£5k). If the shares fall in value Mr A will profit (less the margin/commission). If the shares rise in value then Mr A will make a loss.
The CFD brokerage will structure the transaction so that any losses on one side are covered by profits on the other side. The CFD brokerage takes its commission and bears no risk. The risk is borne by Mr A and Mr B. I am exposed to falls in share price as I would be if I owned 100%.
CFDs are the same as spread betting but with no stamp duty.
The entire risk lies with Mr A and Mr B. The advantage to them is that it allows them to leverage up and gamble on shares with smaller amounts (as they pay 10% margin not 100% face value). This is good if they guess correctly. But if they get it wrong their losses are magnified.
Sean Quinn's investment in Anglo Irish was a leveraged gamble that went wrong. Ultimately it comes down to unneccessary risk taking and over-leveragin -> the trademarks of this recession. In that instance it is not the fault of CFDs but of the people using them. In more recent times you are correct in that it has exassperated the problem as investors have been taking on more and more short positions - gambling that the stock price will fall further. This has created nervousness and market distortions. However, this is more linked to human behaviour and a herd mentality than it is to weaknesses in the product themselves.
Stock markets would be efficient if it wasn't for the humans that use them
Thanks for that, it is one of the best explanations I've seen.
QuoteThe CFD broker, however, will not want to be exposed to fluctuations in the house price and will seek to lock in an arbitrage profit. To do this he will either seek another investor, Mr B, who wants a short position or he will trade in the underlying shares (trading in the underlying shares could have a demand/supply impact and affect the value of my 50% stake).
Are these the same shares that Mr. A bought (with the CFD house) as part of the original transaction?
Mr A never buys any shares. The CFD brokerage probably never buys in shares either. The CFD brokerage will borrow the shares from a company specialising in lending shares.
- CFD brokerage borrows 50,000 shares from the lending house
- Mr A gambles that the shares will rise in value. If the shares rise in value the CFD brokerage will owe Mr B money
- To cover its position the brokerage may thus buy shares in the open market (so if the value of the share price increase the brokerage will gain from the rise in underlying shares but lose from its CFD position, they will structure it so the two cancel out
Thus if the brokerage is trying to cover positions using shares in the market it may distort the share price.
Moreover, CFD's get bad press as it is often difficult to know how many shares in the market are freely traded (free float) as 50% of the shares may be traded and 50% may be "leant" to a CFD brokerage.
I am not an expert on derivatives and have been winging it a bit with all of the above so there may well be holes in my arguments
CFDs are nothing more than spread betting, but betting nonetheless dressed up as wealth generation, and that's what the highest echelons of the Irish Banking System have been involved in (not uniquely). This is the rot at the root in the raw Capitalist System that will have been responsible for destroying itself, and I'll rejoice at it's sorry demise.
Quote from: Caid on February 21, 2009, 02:31:09 PM
Mr A never buys any shares. The CFD brokerage probably never buys in shares either. The CFD brokerage will borrow the shares from a company specialising in lending shares.
- CFD brokerage borrows 50,000 shares from the lending house
- Mr A gambles that the shares will rise in value. If the shares rise in value the CFD brokerage will owe Mr B money
- To cover its position the brokerage may thus buy shares in the open market (so if the value of the share price increase the brokerage will gain from the rise in underlying shares but lose from its CFD position, they will structure it so the two cancel out
Thus if the brokerage is trying to cover positions using shares in the market it may distort the share price.
Moreover, CFD's get bad press as it is often difficult to know how many shares in the market are freely traded (free float) as 50% of the shares may be traded and 50% may be "leant" to a CFD brokerage.
I am not an expert on derivatives and have been winging it a bit with all of the above so there may well be holes in my arguments
Let's talk about an imaginary transaction involving the hypothetical Mr. Q.
He decides to go to a CFD House to buy 25% of a bank.
Neither he nor the CFD house own the shares?
They are all borrowed from a Brokerage??
A few questions:
a. 25% is a serious stake in any business, who owns the voting rights? Mr. Q, CFD House or neither.
b. Does the brokerage buy the shares as part of the transaction or do those in the transcation (Mr. Q and CFD house) have to find a brokerage that happens to hold shares in the desired company?
c. How does this type of transcation typically expire? With the Mr. Q type owning the shrares? Or is it merely a gambling exercise and the shares are always owned by the brokerage.
What I dont like is that is seems that there are people in the stock market ether who benefit form driving a price down when it has nothing to do with the performance of the company in question. That to me is fundamentally wrong.
muppet, are you in favour of betting as a basic, financial or otherwise, of any societal system?
Quote from: muppet on February 21, 2009, 02:55:58 PMWhat I dont like is that is seems that there are people in the stock market ether who benefit form driving a price down when it has nothing to do with the performance of the company in question. That to me is fundamentally wrong.
I haven't read all the above as I'm trying to watch the Corofin game, however, short selling won't pay off unless the price of the company's share being targeted is fundamentally wrong. You can short sell all you want, but if the market does not agree with you, you lose money, thus the problem wasn't short selling any more than it was long buying as prices went up to unrealistic levels.
In general many derivative products are dressed up types of gambling, that's fine, as long as the gamblers (investors) realise that, the problems recently came about because they thought risk been removed ;D, there was no transparency, the people at the top of companies had know idea about what sort of products were being traded, they became derivatives of derivatives of derivatives, impossible to audit or value, but as long as profits were apparently rolling in, who cared.
Some derivatives are essential, namely commodity based derivatives, a case can also be made for derivatives based on interest rates and exchange rates, but what benefit is there for allowing derivatives of share prices? How do they facilitate a company's ability to trade?
So you (too) think that betting is fine as a mainstay of an economy. Mummy, why are we in the shit?
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on February 21, 2009, 02:57:46 PM
muppet, are you in favour of betting as a basic, financial or otherwise, of any societal system?
That question is too general for me.
Are regards betting on shares I realise that there is an entire industry based on this and any suggestion to ban it wipes that industry out.
BogBall your argument is the perceived wisedom at the moment as far as I can see.
Quotehowever, short selling won't pay off unless the price of the company's share being targeted is fundamentally wrong. You can short sell all you want, but if the market does not agree with you,
The problem is even the market can never agree how to value a business. In a crisis like we have now the performance of or real value of a business seems to be irrelevent.
Burlesconi let a comment slip this week about shutting down the markets. I suspect they (EU) might be close to doing that otherwise we will have no businesses left to work in.
OK, do you think that the current (naked greedy capitalist) system can survive?
Quote from: Fear ón Srath Bán on February 21, 2009, 03:22:58 PM
OK, do you think that the current (naked greedy capitalist) system can survive?
I think it probably will sadly as history shows we never learn from anything.
There are two problems though.
The international one and the local Irish one.
The Irish one will only change after a revolution which is unlikely, let's face it.
Internationally the biggest gun wins, so no change likely there either unless Putin or China start to flex their muscles.
Quote
Neither he nor the CFD house own the shares?
They are all borrowed from a Brokerage??
I think this is likely to be correct in most instances. A hedge fund or potentially an institutional investor may lend the shares to either the CFD house or the investor himself
Quote
a. 25% is a serious stake in any business, who owns the voting rights? Mr. Q, CFD House or neither.
The voting rights with be with whoever bought the 25% stake. If the CFD brokerage borrowed the shares from a hedge fund, the hedge fund and not the CFD house will have the voting rights. Someone with a long or short position in the CFDs does not own the shares nor have any of the attached voting rights.
CFD investors are not required to divulge shareholding details. Rather the intermediary responsible for the CFD (e.g. a brokerage or a hedge fund) is required to declare their own involvement.
However, the CFD investors may essentially have full control of voting rights through the intermediary, without actually owning the shares. Investors can fairly easily convert CFDs into underlying shares courtesy of the counterparty, which holds the stock to hedge its exposure. In this way, investors can build a significant stake in a company in secret and at a lower cost than if their intentions were known to the market.
Quote
b. Does the brokerage buy the shares as part of the transaction or do those in the transcation (Mr. Q and CFD house) have to find a brokerage that happens to hold shares in the desired company?
The ultimate party on the other side of the CFD transaction will have bought the shares be that a CFD brokerage or a hedge fund. That transaction will be separate to any subsequent CFD trades but the counterparty will buy/sell shaes in the company to hedge the CFD positions it is taking out
Quote
c. How does this type of transcation typically expire? With the Mr. Q type owning the shrares? Or is it merely a gambling exercise and the shares are always owned by the brokerage.
It is gambling plain and simple. With CFDs as the shares are not actually exchanged there is no stamp duty. Making it "cheap" gambling (mixed in with the leverage aspect which means greater potential gains/losses). The shares are owned by the brokerage but I think the CFD provider may agree with you that you can convert your position into shares in the company. Sean Quinn apparantly had a paper loss of €1bn on Anglo Irish which he unwound and converted into a 15% stake.
There was also a lot of press because of the anonymity and the fact you can built up a anonymous quasi-stake in a company. Outside of takeover periods the acquisition of CFDs is not a notifiable interest. However, the purchase of these instruments can enable a CFD holder to close that contract at a later date then purchase stock which was held by a counterparty in relation to that arrangement. Thus a stake builder can acquire very substantial amounts of shares quickly without making a disclosure until they have acquired well over 3% of the company's shares.
BogBall's post is a good summary
Thanks for all that, I think I half understand. ???
I think most people thought we'd reached a bottom in November - but the markets have taken a real battering this past few weeks.
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 07:52:04 PM
Depends on your definition of an expert and why would you mention trading it then to a lad who
is looking up to you for advice?....that's what is dangerous here!
You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
You highlighted the first half of the sentence only. Did you not see the second half?
His question referred to a recent jump in Irish bank stocks. I was mentioned 'trade on the volatility' to point out that was the type of investment he was talking about. And I clearly pointed out that it was dangerous. Also it was opinion not advice.
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Quote from: heganboy on February 23, 2009, 08:05:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 07:52:04 PM
Depends on your definition of an expert and why would you mention trading it then to a lad who
is looking up to you for advice?....that's what is dangerous here!
You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
You highlighted the first half of the sentence only. Did you not see the second half?
His question referred to a recent jump in Irish bank stocks. I was mentioned 'trade on the volatility' to point out that was the type of investment he was talking about. And I clearly pointed out that it was dangerous. Also it was opinion not advice.
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Jesus !!!!!
Quote from: orangeman on February 23, 2009, 11:03:16 PM
Quote from: heganboy on February 23, 2009, 08:05:02 PM
Quote from: muppet on January 30, 2009, 07:58:15 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on January 30, 2009, 07:52:04 PM
Depends on your definition of an expert and why would you mention trading it then to a lad who
is looking up to you for advice?....that's what is dangerous here!
You could trade on the volatility but that is a dangerous game.
You highlighted the first half of the sentence only. Did you not see the second half?
His question referred to a recent jump in Irish bank stocks. I was mentioned 'trade on the volatility' to point out that was the type of investment he was talking about. And I clearly pointed out that it was dangerous. Also it was opinion not advice.
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Jesus !!!!!
Cool, we need a Messiah.
Quoteactually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Yes I actually did alright last yr trading the QID/QLD ultra's..Nice High open interest at the time and i see the Spy Ultra's are now following suit.
LOL Heganboy...
[/quote]
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
[/quote]
and the software solution is .... ?
Quote from: heganboy on February 23, 2009, 08:05:02 PM
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Is it bad that i dont understand a word of that :P
ISEQ currently 1999.6!!
IL&P 80c.
And the Oscar for best Direction in a Banana Republic goes to.......the Irish Banks for Slumdog Millionaires.
The Dow is down to about 7100 today. Don't think many people saw 6000 odds as a possibility.
Markets are in free fall this morning.
Economy worries hit global shares
Global markets have been gripped by fears for the financial sector
Global stocks have fallen sharply on fears the global financial sector could take a further turn for the worse.
In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 fell by 3.2%, while Germany's Dax was down 2.76% and France's Cac 40 lost 2.67%.
Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 288.27 points, or 3.8%, at 7,280.15. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 3.9% to 12,317.5 points.
Investor confidence was hit by poor results from HSBC, where 2008 profits fell by 62% on the previous year.
Europe's biggest bank posted pre-tax profits for the year of $9.3bn (£6.5bn), and it also confirmed its intention to raise £12.5bn ($17.7bn) from shareholders through a rights issue in the UK.
The money will be used to help the bank cope with the effects of the global economic downturn.
Gloomy news
Weak manufacturing figures in both the UK and eurozone also placed downward pressure on European markets.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by research group Markit, showed that manufacturing activity fell in February compared with the previous month.
"Once again, the extreme weakness in manufacturing activity in February was widespread across the eurozone, with all countries seeing a very sharp contraction in activity," said Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight.
The figures were particularly badly received because manufacturing activity in both the UK and the eurozone rose slightly in January.
In addition, confidence was knocked by talk that US insurance giant AIG may need a further injection of government cash.
'Desperately searching'
In Asia, weak economic data from China and South Korea underscored fears about the region's export-dependent economies.
China's manufacturing sector declined further last month, while South Korean imports and exports also slumped. Japan reported a steep drop in car sales.
Monday's shares slide followed a poor performance on Wall Street on Friday after data showed that US economic growth was even weaker than thought.
"The Tokyo market is being hit directly by the lower share prices overseas," said Toshihiko Matsuno, research head at SMBC Friend Securities.
John Mar, co-head of sales trading at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. said: "You're seeing the US is sinking lower and lower, and we're still desperately searching for a bottom."
quick question, what would happen if i were to buy shares in bank of ireland today and the gov rescue them tomorrow?
Quote from: lfdown2 on March 02, 2009, 10:43:46 AM
quick question, what would happen if i were to buy shares in bank of ireland today and the gov rescue them tomorrow?
That would depend on the amount of the resuce package.
could you provide some detail,
cheers
Stick your money on United to win the premiership if you fancy a gamble. 10% return on your money (if they win) and probably as safe a bet as buying shares in a bank at the minute. Unless you know what you are doing buying shares in any bank is risky at the minute. They may be cheap because they are in severe danger of being nationalised, in which case your shares would be worth diddly squat.
Numbers still heading south ! Dow has opened and is down severely on opening.
Here is the DOW Jones chart for the last month:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1236031205025&chddm=7429&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0 (http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chdet=1236031205025&chddm=7429&q=INDEXDJX:.DJI&ntsp=0)
Closed today at 6,763.29.
The ISEQ could have an interesting week especially as according to P.ie the tax take for February will be published tomorrow and the live register figure for Feb are out on Weds.
Horrible figures - there were a lot of analysts on tonight trying to talk up the market, stating emphatically that this was the "real" bottom - only way is up - but maybe not !
absolutely know very little to feck all about the markets but there seems to be a lot of people about (not really on this board mind you) that seem very impatient to nip in at the bottom of the market. Never mind the maxim 'dont try to catch a falling knife', surely we will only know when the bottom has been hit several weeks in hindsight of it? And in any case I dont think anyone should worry about missing a sudden upsurge in share prices nearly anywhere for a long while. Their will be no bounce with a recession this bad - confidence will be grudging for a long time. There are still so many things that could get worse unfortunately!
Quote from: bcarrier on February 23, 2009, 11:36:57 PM
LOL Heganboy...
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
[/quote]
and the software solution is .... ?
[/quote]
AH BC I couldnt resist, of course don't forget to ask the other BC for a different opinion
Quote from: nifan on February 24, 2009, 08:59:21 AM
Quote from: heganboy on February 23, 2009, 08:05:02 PM
actually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Is it bad that i dont understand a word of that :P
Yes- you clampitt- that is bad!
Quote from: Tyrones own on February 23, 2009, 11:12:50 PM
Quoteactually vol trading and ultra shorts are where the money is right now. VWAP and LWAP are very profitable assuming you have a co-lo and ultra low latency connection. Or of course if you have sub milli access to dark liquidity pools the current volatility leads to a lot of imbalances allowing for low latency arbitration but that mightn't have been what you were asking :-)
Yes I actually did alright last yr trading the QID/QLD ultra's..Nice High open interest at the time and i see the Spy Ultra's are now following suit.
you see I knew you were a smarter guy than how you vote (or stir)
Quoteis now a good time to buy shares?
Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "
bobbing :D up and down" and that the "
profits:D and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected ???
Quote from: Tyrones own on March 04, 2009, 06:03:17 PM
don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected ???
Given that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...
Though "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat
QuoteGiven that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...
Oh I couldn't agree more and have said as much on numerous occasions.
QuoteThough "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat
You, me and the rest of the investors/traders in this country and abroad and i think the numbers
tell as much..
Quote from: Tyrones own on March 04, 2009, 08:41:59 PM
QuoteGiven that it was an "either or" situation it really doesn't say much for the other guy...
Oh I couldn't agree more and have said as much on numerous occasions.
QuoteThough "the stock market is like an opinion poll" worries me somewhat
You, me and the rest of the investors/traders in this country and abroad and i think the numbers
tell as much..
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it's a weighing machine.
Quote
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine, while in the long-term it's a weighing machine.
Ah don't believe the hype - the perfect market theory is a crock
aib shares up to the dizzy Heights of .98 cents :o
I see the markets are rising for the past several weeks, does this mean we are over the worst of this or is this just a false dawn
Both banks have risen meteorically this morning, there's no obvious news that I can see, so i'll have to presume that news has been leaked and that the bad bank is happening and will be announced next week. The details will be very interesting, I wonder just how much of a hit we'll end up taking on this - probably about 35-40Bn?? I suppose the initial damage was done with the ridiculous knee jerk guarantee scheme back in Sept, but still, this seems very wrong to me as the only thing it's doing is bailing out the shareholders.
The worst of it is that I don't think it'll actually fix the problem, I know it's been recommended by Bacon (who is good and worth listening to), but I can't see why this will encourage banks to lend to business. These are difficult times and maybe banks lending willy nilly to businesses is not the right thing to do anyway.
Btw, re the markets rising etc, I think it's just a dead cat bounce, with unemployment being ramped up worldwide next years earnings figures can only be worse than this years, we've probably got a long way to drop yet.
Quote from: Bogball XV on April 03, 2009, 03:03:37 PM
Both banks have risen meteorically this morning, there's no obvious news that I can see, so i'll have to presume that news has been leaked and that the bad bank is happening and will be announced next week. The details will be very interesting, I wonder just how much of a hit we'll end up taking on this - probably about 35-40Bn?? I suppose the initial damage was done with the ridiculous knee jerk guarantee scheme back in Sept, but still, this seems very wrong to me as the only thing it's doing is bailing out the shareholders.
The worst of it is that I don't think it'll actually fix the problem, I know it's been recommended by Bacon (who is good and worth listening to), but I can't see why this will encourage banks to lend to business. These are difficult times and maybe banks lending willy nilly to businesses is not the right thing to do anyway.
Btw, re the markets rising etc, I think it's just a dead cat bounce, with unemployment being ramped up worldwide next years earnings figures can only be worse than this years, we've probably got a long way to drop yet.
Including the prices of houses???
QuoteIncluding the prices of houses???
Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%
Quote from: Declan on April 03, 2009, 03:56:41 PM
I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%
I wouldn't say that you'd be too far out with that.
Quote from: Declan on April 03, 2009, 03:56:41 PM
QuoteIncluding the prices of houses???
Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%
I would concur with at least that much of a drop in real terms, although if inflation does kick in as predicted by many the drop in money terms may not be as much.
Croi, imo there are several fundamentals that have to be looked at in relation to house prices:
1. Disposable income - that is dropping dramatically for almost everyone in this country, between salary drops and tax/levy increases people will not have the money to service the same levels of debt.
2. Banks ability to fund mortgages - again, with the shrinking of the world credit maket, the pool of easy money our banks have been accessing over the past decade is gone - it won't be back for a while either as regulation will ensure that for the time being nonsense products will not be available.
3. Banks willingness to borrow - this is a huge factor, as you know banks currently won't give out loans, since they're the only source of funding for property buyers, how can house prices exceed the amount that banks are willing to loan? This is the issue that the bad bank is trying to address, I doubt that it will succeed, and even if it does banks will not be adopting the same profligate lending policies as before - not only will they have to retain higher levels of cash in reserve, but they will start vetting disposable incomes and applicatons - whatever happens here, banks will be lending fractions of what they used to.
4. Interest rates - important normally, but they're so low now as to not matter - there's very little room to drop further so the only way is up, once again, if as expected inflation starts to rear her ugly head the ECB will have these up quick smart.
There are plenty of other factors like replacement dwellings required, population growth, immigration, vacant properties and I've probably left out some other big ones, but the above should suffice for now.
Quote from: Tyrones own on March 04, 2009, 06:03:17 PM
Quoteis now a good time to buy shares?
Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "bobbing :D up and down" and that the "profits:D and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected ???
If you bought in on any index that day and sold out now Obama would have been right.
That said it could of course be a bounce.
I bought a few shares three weeks ago but only taken a small loss. I should have done the index. ???
Quote from: Bogball XV on April 03, 2009, 04:14:10 PM
Quote from: Declan on April 03, 2009, 03:56:41 PM
QuoteIncluding the prices of houses???
Depends who you listen to - I think that the residential market in the Republic is still overvalued by about 30/40%
I would concur with at least that much of a drop in real terms, although if inflation does kick in as predicted by many the drop in money terms may not be as much.
Croi, imo there are several fundamentals that have to be looked at in relation to house prices:
1. Disposable income - that is dropping dramatically for almost everyone in this country, between salary drops and tax/levy increases people will not have the money to service the same levels of debt.
2. Banks ability to fund mortgages - again, with the shrinking of the world credit maket, the pool of easy money our banks have been accessing over the past decade is gone - it won't be back for a while either as regulation will ensure that for the time being nonsense products will not be available.
3. Banks willingness to borrow - this is a huge factor, as you know banks currently won't give out loans, since they're the only source of funding for property buyers, how can house prices exceed the amount that banks are willing to loan? This is the issue that the bad bank is trying to address, I doubt that it will succeed, and even if it does banks will not be adopting the same profligate lending policies as before - not only will they have to retain higher levels of cash in reserve, but they will start vetting disposable incomes and applicatons - whatever happens here, banks will be lending fractions of what they used to.
4. Interest rates - important normally, but they're so low now as to not matter - there's very little room to drop further so the only way is up, once again, if as expected inflation starts to rear her ugly head the ECB will have these up quick smart.
There are plenty of other factors like replacement dwellings required, population growth, immigration, vacant properties and I've probably left out some other big ones, but the above should suffice for now.
I would agree with all that. Think we'll see houses bottom out around 50% of what they were worth at the peak. Sold mine there recently and we're already back to 2003 levels, 30% less than peak value... Although if the current "difficulties" worsen we could swing right past 50%.
The Central Bank predicts -7% in GNP this year and -3% next year, so the thing still has some way to go. There won't be much inflation in these circumstances, quite the opposite, all prices may fall. House prices are not going to bottom out for a while and as Bogball says even if you get a loan the long term interest rates will be significantly higher, but wages will not grow as they have done. As I said a couple need to get a house on 2.5-3 times their income, incomes that will have fallen. There has to be houses for most people at this multiple and even posh areas have to have houses affordable by a professional couples on good salaries.
Quote from: muppet on April 03, 2009, 04:18:48 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on March 04, 2009, 06:03:17 PM
Quoteis now a good time to buy shares?
Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "bobbing :D up and down" and that the "profits:D and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected ???
If you bought in on any index that day and sold out now Obama would have been right.
That said it could of course be a bounce.
I bought a few shares three weeks ago but only taken a small loss. I should have done the index. ???
Indexes are the way to go..did you ever look in to futures?
Quote from: Tyrones own on April 03, 2009, 06:05:17 PM
Quote from: muppet on April 03, 2009, 04:18:48 PM
Quote from: Tyrones own on March 04, 2009, 06:03:17 PM
Quoteis now a good time to buy shares?
Absolutely lads...jump straight in with both feet, Obama says nows not the time to
be worried about it "bobbing :D up and down" and that the "profits:D and earnings"
are about right to jump in...what a f**king embarrassment..don't know whether to laugh or shake my head
in disgust at how this buffoon fooled so many people to get elected ???
If you bought in on any index that day and sold out now Obama would have been right.
That said it could of course be a bounce.
I bought a few shares three weeks ago but only taken a small loss. I should have done the index. ???
Indexes are the way to go..did you ever look in to futures?
I am an amateur investor. I'll leave futures to the serious speculators.
stick to shares in food, renewable energy, bio-fuels etc and you'll do ok.
Quote from: armaghniac on April 03, 2009, 05:28:25 PM
The Central Bank predicts -7% in GNP this year and -3% next year, so the thing still has some way to go. There won't be much inflation in these circumstances, quite the opposite, all prices may fall. House prices are not going to bottom out for a while and as Bogball says even if you get a loan the long term interest rates will be significantly higher, but wages will not grow as they have done. As I said a couple need to get a house on 2.5-3 times their income, incomes that will have fallen. There has to be houses for most people at this multiple and even posh areas have to have houses affordable by a professional couples on good salaries.
Agree, though inflation is still thought to be a risk because of the rapidity with which the various central banks have been
'printing money' sorry, indulging in quantitative easing :D
Just checking the share prices there Boi shares up to €1.39 Aib at €1.28 . boi shares have shot up over 50% since monday. whats the story
Its very hard to know, only a couple of weeks ago there was talk of the big N with them. On a UK share trading forum there is even mention of them.
Markets have really rebounded strongly finishing on a 7 month high today. Reccession over or simply a correction ??????
Quote from: orangeman on July 30, 2009, 09:27:58 PM
Markets have really rebounded strongly finishing on a 7 month high today. Reccession over or simply a correction ??????
The ISEQ was 10,000 and is now 2,800. It's a long way out.
Ya it (AIB Shares) only has to go up to about euro22.00 & I get my life savings back ::)
Quote from: Son_of_Sam on July 30, 2009, 10:15:59 PM
Ya it (AIB Shares) only has to go up to about euro22.00 & I get my life savings back ::)
:o Jaysus...ever hear of a stop loss SoS!
Bought some silver ETFs a while back. Still marginally ahead but it's fecking addictive watching the price bounce up and down. A learning experience if nothing else.
Got a tip for BARCLAYS back in February when I was in Armagh - some difference since then
Quote from: Donagh on July 30, 2009, 10:35:43 PM
Bought some silver ETFs a while back. Still marginally ahead but it's fecking addictive watching the price bounce up and down. A learning experience if nothing else.
Bought a different kind of ball a few months back but its doing the same bouncing. Certainly is a learning experience. The question being will I remember the lessons learned??? Anyone getting involved in shares should read the book "Cityboys" by Geraint Anderson, its a fact based novel and will show you just how ridiculous the market influences can be. It certainly isn't a science and anyone who claims it is is full of bull. Example last week, Lloyds Banking Group announce £4bn first half losses and the shares go through the roof and a few days later, RBS announce losses too, albeit a lot smaller for the half year and the backside falls out of their shares. I know both banks are in dire condition and that sentiment towards the two banks is different, but where is the science or logic to that? There are a lot of very very wealthy people / companies dictating the market and when small fry like us join in we are at their mercy.
Quote from: The Iceman on August 11, 2009, 09:46:08 PM
Got a tip for BARCLAYS back in February when I was in Armagh - some difference since then
Did you follow the tip Iceman? I bought some of them Jan , they are a thing of beauty.
Quote from: irunthev on August 12, 2009, 08:31:21 AM
Quote from: Donagh on July 30, 2009, 10:35:43 PM
Bought some silver ETFs a while back. Still marginally ahead but it's fecking addictive watching the price bounce up and down. A learning experience if nothing else.
Bought a different kind of ball a few months back but its doing the same bouncing. Certainly is a learning experience. The question being will I remember the lessons learned??? Anyone getting involved in shares should read the book "Cityboys" by Geraint Anderson, its a fact based novel and will show you just how ridiculous the market influences can be. It certainly isn't a science and anyone who claims it is is full of bull. Example last week, Lloyds Banking Group announce £4bn first half losses and the shares go through the roof and a few days later, RBS announce losses too, albeit a lot smaller for the half year and the backside falls out of their shares. I know both banks are in dire condition and that sentiment towards the two banks is different, but where is the science or logic to that? There are a lot of very very wealthy people / companies dictating the market and when small fry like us join in we are at their mercy.
i agree that the reasons made up to explain movements are mostly nonsense (and that's not just financially based - see The Black Swan), but in the instances above you're probably missing the point, shares rise or fall based on how results compare with previous predictions, there can also be other info on future prospects contained within such announcements, for example at present a high degree of importance is placed on banks loan books and the deterioration or improvement of these loans.
Quote from: Bogball XV on July 08, 2008, 05:05:32 PM
Apparently Carroll dumped his FBD holdings last week too. He sold them for approx €16 per share, don't know what the bought for, but they were offered €37 a share a few months ago from some dutch crowd in a takeover attempt. Carroll's investments are primarily for property plays or when he hears wind of possible takeover attempts, such as FBD and Aer Lingus. It's paid off well in the past for him as he made quite a few quid in the Jury's takeover attempt 3 years ago.
What's not known is whether he had to sell last week or whether he was doing the hardest thing in investment, taking a loss, there's not many of us who are much good at that, but it is often the most important thing.
I see as well that there are rumours that Sean Quinn is sitting on a massive paper loss on investments in Anglo Irish Bank, rumours in the Sunday Papers suggest that he could be looking at a half a billion loss since the start of the year.
I think we know now!!
Quote from: gerrykeegan on August 12, 2009, 08:58:36 AM
Quote from: The Iceman on August 11, 2009, 09:46:08 PM
Got a tip for BARCLAYS back in February when I was in Armagh - some difference since then
Did you follow the tip Iceman? I bought some of them Jan , they are a thing of beauty.
How much have they gone up by Gerry ?
222% with dividends to come!
Quote from: gerrykeegan on August 12, 2009, 09:48:02 AM
222% with dividends to come!
nice one gerry , so when do you sell ;)
I plan to sell the day before the start of the next recession and not a minute sooner. i will be asking Loan Shark and the Muppet for their predictions.!
What gives you the bigger emotion when dealign in shares.... getting it right when you buy a share and watching the price rise or getting wrong and watching the price drop. Is it really money that is the motivator or is it the chance to beat the system. At the end of the day, if you have absolutely no money you aren't going to be buying shares, so you can assume that those who do buy and sell have a little extra cash, so is money the main motivator?
Quote from: irunthev on August 12, 2009, 11:41:11 AM
What gives you the bigger emotion when dealign in shares.... getting it right when you buy a share and watching the price rise or getting wrong and watching the price drop. Is it really money that is the motivator or is it the chance to beat the system. At the end of the day, if you have absolutely no money you aren't going to be buying shares, so you can assume that those who do buy and sell have a little extra cash, so is money the main motivator?
I am not so sure which is the bigger emotion, i have lost big time on a certain drinks copany and two irish owned banks, as their share price collapsed I got to the stage that I could only laugh as they had cost me so much. The rising share is more of a thank f**k I bought them when i said I would. I sometimes watch a share for ages and then dont buy it and then lose out. I watched a mining share for about three months, at 11p I was very interested, i did nothing and the following morning it went to 33p.I was sick. Money is a motivator,but its a gamble more than anything. In the same way I will study the odds on Paddy Power for the golf.
Quote from: gerrykeegan on August 12, 2009, 11:53:23 AM
Quote from: irunthev on August 12, 2009, 11:41:11 AM
What gives you the bigger emotion when dealign in shares.... getting it right when you buy a share and watching the price rise or getting wrong and watching the price drop. Is it really money that is the motivator or is it the chance to beat the system. At the end of the day, if you have absolutely no money you aren't going to be buying shares, so you can assume that those who do buy and sell have a little extra cash, so is money the main motivator?
I am not so sure which is the bigger emotion, i have lost big time on a certain drinks copany and two irish owned banks, as their share price collapsed I got to the stage that I could only laugh as they had cost me so much. The rising share is more of a thank f**k I bought them when i said I would. I sometimes watch a share for ages and then dont buy it and then lose out. I watched a mining share for about three months, at 11p I was very interested, i did nothing and the following morning it went to 33p.I was sick. Money is a motivator,but its a gamble more than anything. In the same way I will study the odds on Paddy Power for the golf.
I agree...... that pit of the stomach sickness when you get it wrong is dreadful, but the relief when you see the shares price rising is sheer relief.
There is a saying that every time you win on the stock market someone else has lost and vice versa.... I guess you just have to keep it in perspective and hope that the number of losers doesn't get out of hand.
Quote from: gerrykeegan on August 12, 2009, 08:58:36 AM
Quote from: The Iceman on August 11, 2009, 09:46:08 PM
Got a tip for BARCLAYS back in February when I was in Armagh - some difference since then
Did you follow the tip Iceman? I bought some of them Jan , they are a thing of beauty.
I did sir - thank God and hope everyone I mentioned it to in good faith did also. God Bless the saudis.
Quote from: gerrykeegan on August 12, 2009, 11:53:23 AM
Quote from: irunthev on August 12, 2009, 11:41:11 AM
What gives you the bigger emotion when dealing in shares.... getting it right when you buy a share and watching the price rise or getting wrong and watching the price drop. Is it really money that is the motivator or is it the chance to beat the system. At the end of the day, if you have absolutely no money you aren't going to be buying shares, so you can assume that those who do buy and sell have a little extra cash, so is money the main motivator?
I am not so sure which is the bigger emotion, i have lost big time on a certain drinks copany and two Irish owned banks, as their share price collapsed I got to the stage that I could only laugh as they had cost me so much. The rising share is more of a thank f**k I bought them when i said I would. I sometimes watch a share for ages and then dont buy it and then lose out. I watched a mining share for about three months, at 11p I was very interested, i did nothing and the following morning it went to 33p.I was sick.
that mining share just went to 90p thats over 700% of an increase, I'm sick
aib and boi at yearly highs today steadily rising this week . any ideas why investors are buying ?
NAMA NAMA YAY
NAMA NAMA NAMA YAY
Quote from: whiskeysteve on August 28, 2009, 01:33:02 PM
NAMA NAMA YAY
NAMA NAMA NAMA YAY
it's the only possible reason, but are they insiders or hopelessly optimistic? They obviously aren't paying to much heed to Eamon Ryan's words on the subject, he effectively said that the state would most likely have to take larger stakes in the banks after the discount rates are determined.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 28, 2009, 12:29:20 PM
aib and boi at yearly highs today steadily rising this week . any ideas why investors are buying ?
People who are convinced NAMA will give them a free lunch.
Quote from: muppet on August 28, 2009, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 28, 2009, 12:29:20 PM
aib and boi at yearly highs today steadily rising this week . any ideas why investors are buying ?
People who are convinced NAMA will give them a free lunch.
Dermot Desmond has got rid of a load of his sheres in the 2 big banks according to todays Indo.
Quote from: comethekingdom on August 29, 2009, 01:47:22 PM
Quote from: muppet on August 28, 2009, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on August 28, 2009, 12:29:20 PM
aib and boi at yearly highs today steadily rising this week . any ideas why investors are buying ?
People who are convinced NAMA will give them a free lunch.
Dermot Desmond has got rid of a load of his sheres in the 2 big banks according to todays Indo.
[/b]
And made another small fortune.
Desmond in my view is a good baromoter.
I heard he had sold mid last week and thus done the same myself. Time will tell ...... but my average price was 92c so happy days as i look at it now - 252c was my selling price
I think that they will plummett from their current prices, i can't understand just how everyone has totally discounted the fact that the govt will almost certainly have to take another large wedge of both banks, i expect them to start dropping tomorrow morning as maybe lenno's weekend comments and the desmond news might lead people to re-evaluate their holdings.
Apparently all the action has been with small punters coming in for 5 and 10 grands - they've done well in fairness, some very well, there were plenty of chances to buy up boi or aib at 20c and 30c just 6 months ago. Wish to feck i'd done the same :'( Is shorting irish financials still banned?
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 30, 2009, 06:37:06 PM
I think that they will plummett from their current prices, i can't understand just how everyone has totally discounted the fact that the govt will almost certainly have to take another large wedge of both banks, i expect them to start dropping tomorrow morning as maybe lenno's weekend comments and the desmond news might lead people to re-evaluate their holdings.
Apparently all the action has been with small punters coming in for 5 and 10 grands - they've done well in fairness, some very well, there were plenty of chances to buy up boi or aib at 20c and 30c just 6 months ago. Wish to feck i'd done the same :'( Is shorting irish financials still banned?
Apparently (so I'm told as I'm no expert) the ISEQ has been rising on relatively small transactions rather than the more desirable rally due to huge amounts of money coming back to the market. Lots of people are predicting a fall, especially in October.
big jump irish bank shares this morning aib up 63 cent and boi up 35 cent
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 30, 2009, 06:37:06 PM
Is shorting irish financials still banned?
Lets hope so. Last thing thta is needed now.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on September 17, 2009, 09:36:11 AM
big jump irish bank shares this morning aib up 63 cent and boi up 35 cent
Desmond sold his too early. Human after all.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on September 17, 2009, 09:36:11 AM
big jump irish bank shares this morning aib up 63 cent and boi up 35 cent
Surely this means the investors think the Irish taxpayer have been shafted by the FFers? Still wouldn't touch Irish banks with Tony Fearons money.
My silver investment however is up 25% in four months. Steady as she goes...
25% increase this quarter on the portfolio
things are picking up
I have an Ark Life policy the last 4 years and im currently down roughly 2500 on what i have invested. I know very little about these and it was something that i was talked into by the bank. When i ring up to ask how its getting on all im told is that im getting cheap shares at the moment and it will come good.
Can anyone advise me on what to do i will need the money next year and im thinking about getting out now incase i lose more.
Will shareholders take the profits and run afraid of further dilution of the share price ??
Bank of Ireland has raised the possibility of generating fresh funds by issuing new shares.
The bank said that the transfer of its loans to NAMA may result in a need for additional capital.
The bank has also has said it is now stabilising the bank after being in survival mode 18 months ago.
AdvertisementBank of Ireland chief executive Richie Boucher told a conference call that the bank must deal with a number of challenges but he said they would face up to them in a realistic way.
Mr Boucher said NAMA was an imaginative and well-thought out plan which will provide liquidity and ease concerns on asset quality in Irish banks along with helping them de-leverage their balance sheets.
Mr Boucher also refused to disclose the proportion of non-performing loans in the land and development book which is transferring to NAMA.
Staff have been reduced by 10% since 'the crisis' began.
At 1pm, shares in Bank of Ireland were up 11% and AIB was up over 20%.
Shares in Bank of Ireland and AIB also made significant gains on US stock markets.
Government figures show the NAMA plan will require significant capital injections for some financial institutions.
Many commentators had feared that NAMA could be soft on the banks.
However, the initial reaction from stockbrokers indicates the discounts on loans are more extreme than they would have expected.
Last night AIB said it would require an additional €2bn of capital.
It will try to raise that money by selling assets or raising it from investors, otherwise the capital will have come from the State.
The discounts for Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide are calculated to be well in excess of 30%.
For Anglo that means more taxpayers' money will be needed in the State owned bank.
Invested GBP500 in an ISA Index (FTSE 100) Tracker in July which I find is now worth GBP636. Will invest more is the FTSE comes back near 5000. Shares (or rather index trackers - for people without the time/inclination to follow individual stocks) are still cheap now despite recent rises (although I am worried about a W shaped recession so am a little wary). Anyone investing in stocks should invest for a minimum 3-5 year time period (which is easier said than done)
Quote from: Caid on October 20, 2009, 06:53:48 PM
Invested GBP500 in an ISA Index (FTSE 100) Tracker in July which I find is now worth GBP636. Will invest more is the FTSE comes back near 5000. Shares (or rather index trackers - for people without the time/inclination to follow individual stocks) are still cheap now despite recent rises (although I am worried about a W shaped recession so am a little wary). Anyone investing in stocks should invest for a minimum 3-5 year time period (which is easier said than done)
Hope not. Would take a good while to get out of.
Seemed to be a good time for the Saudi royal family who walked away yesterday with a cool 600m after selling some of their stock in Barclays. Admittedly they had bailed them out as the recession hit but thats a savage amount of money to make as profit.
Dont know much about shares lads. Looking for some advice. Would banking shares be a good investment at the min? Was looking at LLoyds banking shares. Surely things will get better in the coming years in the banking industry? We have already seen signs of recovery with Goldman and JPMorgan announcing huge profits.
Whats the best way to go about buying shares?
Quote from: muppet on August 30, 2009, 06:39:57 PM
Quote from: Bogball XV on August 30, 2009, 06:37:06 PM
I think that they will plummett from their current prices, i can't understand just how everyone has totally discounted the fact that the govt will almost certainly have to take another large wedge of both banks, i expect them to start dropping tomorrow morning as maybe lenno's weekend comments and the desmond news might lead people to re-evaluate their holdings.
Apparently all the action has been with small punters coming in for 5 and 10 grands - they've done well in fairness, some very well, there were plenty of chances to buy up boi or aib at 20c and 30c just 6 months ago. Wish to feck i'd done the same :'( Is shorting irish financials still banned?
Apparently (so I'm told as I'm no expert) the ISEQ has been rising on relatively small transactions rather than the more desirable rally due to huge amounts of money coming back to the market. Lots of people are predicting a fall, especially in October.
My source was pretty good, just a week or two out. ISEQ taking a beating in the last week or two.
Mickey Linden, I hope you didn't go near the Irish Banks.
Also several posters here including Caid have talked about a 'W' shaped recession. Looks like we might be seeing the second downturn. Roll on the upturn.
Quote from: Donagh on September 30, 2008, 10:08:38 AM
Holy feck!!! You Free Staters better start praying non of the banks go under. With a E7 billion hole already in this years finances, this could brakrupt the place for a decade.
I think Donagh's comment looks now to be the understatement of the decade!
BP shares are taking some battering.
Now down to £3.33.
Good time to buy or not ??
I pulled all my stocks and pushed them into a lifecycle index fund with vanguard.
Quote from: Mickey Linden on October 27, 2009, 02:50:37 PM
Dont know much about shares lads. Looking for some advice. Would banking shares be a good investment at the min? Was looking at LLoyds banking shares. Surely things will get better in the coming years in the banking industry? We have already seen signs of recovery with Goldman and JPMorgan announcing huge profits.
Whats the best way to go about buying shares?
Looking at banking shares just because they are local is like looking at your local club team in terms of winning the all-Ireland. Most of the growth over the next few years is not going to happen in europe. If you want to get into banks have a look at Asia or South America. that's where the growth and the profit is likely to be.
Lloyds and RBS may rise significantly (especially if the analysts are right- they are always sunny and optimistic, god love them) but there is a lot of downside risk. At the beginning of the year all the hotshots were saying Irish Life and permanent should double to €6 and instead the shares halved.
Quote from: orangeman on June 23, 2010, 05:16:37 PM
BP shares are taking some battering.
Now down to £3.33.
Good time to buy or not ??
£3.08 and falling - BP looking very vulnerable now at these levels.
Quote from: orangeman on June 25, 2010, 09:41:55 AM
Quote from: orangeman on June 23, 2010, 05:16:37 PM
BP shares are taking some battering.
Now down to £3.33.
Good time to buy or not ??
£3.08 and falling - BP looking very vulnerable now at these levels.
Wait for the take-over rumours.........
Quote from: muppet on June 25, 2010, 12:01:11 PM
Quote from: orangeman on June 25, 2010, 09:41:55 AM
Quote from: orangeman on June 23, 2010, 05:16:37 PM
BP shares are taking some battering.
Now down to £3.33.
Good time to buy or not ??
£3.08 and falling - BP looking very vulnerable now at these levels.
Wait for the take-over rumours.........
Surely by buying at £3.00 or so, any potential takeover would boost themm given their prime position on the world oil market ?.
There is a smallish risk of BP becoming bankrupt. Otherwise the shares are undervalued due to an overreaction by the markets. A bit like Irish life and Permanent maybe.
Quote from: orangeman on June 25, 2010, 12:03:31 PM
Quote from: muppet on June 25, 2010, 12:01:11 PM
Quote from: orangeman on June 25, 2010, 09:41:55 AM
Quote from: orangeman on June 23, 2010, 05:16:37 PM
BP shares are taking some battering.
Now down to £3.33.
Good time to buy or not ??
£3.08 and falling - BP looking very vulnerable now at these levels.
Wait for the take-over rumours.........
Surely by buying at £3.00 or so, any potential takeover would boost themm given their prime position on the world oil market ?.
Be careful, How can you buy a stock where you cannot even quantify thier liability. Yes BP has valuable global assets, but untimately may have to sell them to pay for current gulf mess.
Quote from: orangeman on October 31, 2008, 01:27:20 PM
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
have we found it yet ?
Quote from: orangeman on September 17, 2009, 10:15:56 AM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on September 17, 2009, 09:36:11 AM
big jump irish bank shares this morning aib up 63 cent and boi up 35 cent
Desmond sold his too early. Human after all.
maybe not OM, maybe not :D :D
There's some great posts in this thread, some craic.
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 01:55:00 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 31, 2008, 01:27:20 PM
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
have we found it yet ?
For once in my life I was lucky in regard to investments, during the crash of 2008 I had my 401k money in a fixed account as I was trying to buy extra pension benefits (this never materialized), I put the 401k money back in slowly to my accounts over the next 6 months with over a 50% return on my money since then. Pure luck, in right place at the right time!The markets have had a nice steady return in the last 18 months just spread out your exposure.
Blow it out your ass Mayo :D
only messin, well done.
Quote from: FL/MAYO on November 25, 2010, 04:26:47 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 01:55:00 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 31, 2008, 01:27:20 PM
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
have we found it yet ?
For once in my life I was lucky in regard to investments, during the crash of 2008 I had my 401k money in a fixed account as I was trying to buy extra pension benefits (this never materialized), I put the 401k money back in slowly to my accounts over the next 6 months with over a 50% return on my money since then. Pure luck, in right place at the right time!The markets have had a nice steady return in the last 18 months just spread out your exposure.
sure no wonder you are looking for house bargains FL ;)
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 04:56:27 PM
Quote from: FL/MAYO on November 25, 2010, 04:26:47 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 01:55:00 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 31, 2008, 01:27:20 PM
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
have we found it yet ?
For once in my life I was lucky in regard to investments, during the crash of 2008 I had my 401k money in a fixed account as I was trying to buy extra pension benefits (this never materialized), I put the 401k money back in slowly to my accounts over the next 6 months with over a 50% return on my money since then. Pure luck, in right place at the right time!The markets have had a nice steady return in the last 18 months just spread out your exposure.
sure no wonder you are looking for house bargains FL ;)
Deel, I cant touch it until I retire unfortunately so not any good to me now. Have you finished that house yet....I love bargains ;)
Quote from: FL/MAYO on November 25, 2010, 05:17:31 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 04:56:27 PM
Quote from: FL/MAYO on November 25, 2010, 04:26:47 PM
Quote from: the Deel Rover on November 25, 2010, 01:55:00 PM
Quote from: orangeman on October 31, 2008, 01:27:20 PM
We seem to have found the bottom - has anyone taken the plunge ??????????
have we found it yet ?
For once in my life I was lucky in regard to investments, during the crash of 2008 I had my 401k money in a fixed account as I was trying to buy extra pension benefits (this never materialized), I put the 401k money back in slowly to my accounts over the next 6 months with over a 50% return on my money since then. Pure luck, in right place at the right time!The markets have had a nice steady return in the last 18 months just spread out your exposure.
sure no wonder you are looking for house bargains FL ;)
Deel, I cant touch it until I retire unfortunately so not any good to me now. Have you finished that house yet....I love bargains ;)
aye house finished happy f**king days, next time your home pop down and we can discuss a price over a creamy pint of guiness you never know mayo footbal might come into the conversationl ;) oh and hope your have a nice thankgiving today Fl
How would a man, for a bit of craic, go about buying a few cheap shares? Is there any user friendly websites out there? Do you have to register yourself to any particular company/government agency to buy shares?
Quote from: omagh_gael on February 14, 2011, 03:52:38 PM
How would a man, for a bit of craic, go about buying a few cheap shares? Is there any user friendly websites out there? Do you have to register yourself to any particular company/government agency to buy shares?
If you really are asking these questions on a sports discussion forum and expecting serious answers, my recommendation is try you luck down the bookies instead :D
I use Barclays. Easy enough.
Anybody trading at the moment?
Have FORD, Verizon and GE staying steady enough for me in my safety bucket right now and have a growth bucket. I just picked up Mitek Systems for the growth bucket last week at $4.05 and today they just hit $4.74
All a bit of craic no huge numbers but keeps an interest in the market, at least over here.
Quote from: Over the Bar on November 01, 2008, 09:37:02 PM
Now is a good time to buy Gold.
Wonder how much gold has gone up since OTB posted this comment in 2008
Quote from: the Deel Rover on July 01, 2011, 02:35:07 PM
Quote from: Over the Bar on November 01, 2008, 09:37:02 PM
Now is a good time to buy Gold.
Wonder how much gold has gone up since OTB posted this comment in 2008
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html
4th November 2008 US$755.00 ounce -----24th June 2011 US$1505.00 ounce 1555.00 all time high
Double your money in a little over 2 years. But you needed to have that extra 755 sitting around ::)
Bump.
I just saw this thread referenced on another thread about buying shares. The late 2008 posts make sobering reading.
Sean Quinn may have 1b exposure on Anglo.
Time to buy AIB
BoI has dropped to €5 euro.
Invest in TomCo (American oil Company on the London Stock Exchange) you heard it here first!! 8) 8) 8)
Quote from: Fender on January 07, 2013, 10:38:20 PM
Invest in TomCo (American oil Company on the London Stock Exchange) you heard it here first!! 8) 8) 8)
Still invested?
Quote from: Maroon Manc on October 27, 2013, 08:57:35 PM
Quote from: Fender on January 07, 2013, 10:38:20 PM
Invest in TomCo (American oil Company on the London Stock Exchange) you heard it here first!! 8) 8) 8)
Still invested?
You would be grand if you has jumped on in July, they are nearly back to their January high.
What are peoples views on banking shares currently. I had been considering making a small long term (20 year) investment and had been eyeing up BOI and Lloyds specifically, obviously a gamble but would people be confident in their long term performance?
Quote from: lfdown2 on May 01, 2015, 02:27:26 PM
What are peoples views on banking shares currently. I had been considering making a small long term (20 year) investment and had been eyeing up BOI and Lloyds specifically, obviously a gamble but would people be confident in their long term performance?
why banking? why not look at a more stable investment. Health insurance in the US - look at the performance of Aetna for example over the past 6/7 years...
Quote from: The Iceman on May 01, 2015, 04:13:37 PM
Quote from: lfdown2 on May 01, 2015, 02:27:26 PM
What are peoples views on banking shares currently. I had been considering making a small long term (20 year) investment and had been eyeing up BOI and Lloyds specifically, obviously a gamble but would people be confident in their long term performance?
why banking? why not look at a more stable investment. Health insurance in the US - look at the performance of Aetna for example over the past 6/7 years...
No particular reason, have just followed them since things went tits up and note their current low value compared to the high which I would have thought they would return to long term - my knowledge is limited (under statement) and as I say it was only as a small investment (gamble). Thanks though will have a look at those.
Personally I think BoI are a decent punt - I'm basing that on very little though.
AIB aren't available for general purchase at the moment and I'd be wary of buying them when they do become available, could be way over / under priced.
Quote from: lfdown2 on May 01, 2015, 04:20:13 PM
Quote from: The Iceman on May 01, 2015, 04:13:37 PM
Quote from: lfdown2 on May 01, 2015, 02:27:26 PM
What are peoples views on banking shares currently. I had been considering making a small long term (20 year) investment and had been eyeing up BOI and Lloyds specifically, obviously a gamble but would people be confident in their long term performance?
why banking? why not look at a more stable investment. Health insurance in the US - look at the performance of Aetna for example over the past 6/7 years...
No particular reason, have just followed them since things went tits up and note their current low value compared to the high which I would have thought they would return to long term - my knowledge is limited (under statement) and as I say it was only as a small investment (gamble). Thanks though will have a look at those.
Its all Vegas money so thats the right attitude to approach it with - be willing to lose.
Its certainly better than saving it in my book - stick with a lifecycle index fund from someone like Vanguard and you can't really go wrong as long as you keep putting money into it regularly.
Thankfully I've made some very lucky investments over the years - made nice money on Barclays at a time, MITK was a huge tip I got a few years back and got out at the perfect time. I have some money in Aetna and Ford at the minute just sitting there. Haven't dabbled in a while but if you want to make safe money go with an index fund and keep paying in to it.
Warning: I haven't a clue what I am talking about!
Now that the above is out of the way, I have had some (dumb) luck over the last 3/4 years with mutual funds (nearly 40%) and a lucky punt on on an Irish stock (50% but slipping back).
I have no idea what to do next, but I'll let you know afterwards if it worked.
Can any of you advise on how to buy shares as a gift for someone else?
Anyone buying? A lot of shares have tumbled. You would expect them to recover somewhat when lockdown is over.
have a look at disney, underpriced atm due to parks closed, netflix taking off etc, but should be solid long term
Dunno about shares but it's a good time to buy eggs, they'll be like currency next week...
https://www.northernsound.ie/ireland-faces-shortage-1-5-million-eggs-day-due-outbreak-avian-flu/
Mine with Zurich are down 57% so I am buying more at the minute, nothing mad might just do 5k.
Holy Sh*t, I haven't checked Tesla share prices for a while :o Might be time to get out.
If we're all going to be wearing masks then perhaps Gilette shares might be worth a flutter. A lot of beards will go.....
Surprised at the rally taking place
I plan to put some cash into my pension pot over this next few weeks and months. It's long term obviously but the FTSE should rise over this next 15 - 20 years so hopefully getting some cash into that now will be a good plan.
Quote from: trailer on April 30, 2020, 10:46:43 AM
I plan to put some cash into my pension pot over this next few weeks and months. It's long term obviously but the FTSE should rise over this next 15 - 20 years so hopefully getting some cash into that now will be a good plan.
Bit of a strange rationale? Yes equities will be expected to steadily increase in the longterm but that is no different to where it was before this crisis. Its not 15 years since the last crash so there will be a good few peaks and troughs in the period you referred to.
I personally think the market is overpriced at the minute following the recent rally. I think there is a retail buyer "bounce" at the minute because people think it is underpriced due to how far it has fallen and that was probably true 3 weeks ago. I think the FTSE is higher than it was at the start of march. I think there will be a fall later in the year if it becomes apparent that there was actually a recession on the cards before Covid and the recovery is going to be more painful than most people thought. There is definitely an opportunity in specific stocks worst hit (leisure/travel etc) but the problem is that they are high risk. A proportion of these will go bankrupt so its the ones with strong balance sheets and low leverage that will survive and do well as more highly geared competitors disappear.
Quote from: TabClear on April 30, 2020, 11:12:46 AM
Quote from: trailer on April 30, 2020, 10:46:43 AM
I plan to put some cash into my pension pot over this next few weeks and months. It's long term obviously but the FTSE should rise over this next 15 - 20 years so hopefully getting some cash into that now will be a good plan.
Bit of a strange rationale? Yes equities will be expected to steadily increase in the longterm but that is no different to where it was before this crisis. Its not 15 years since the last crash so there will be a good few peaks and troughs in the period you referred to.
I personally think the market is overpriced at the minute following the recent rally. I think there is a retail buyer "bounce" at the minute because people think it is underpriced due to how far it has fallen and that was probably true 3 weeks ago. I think the FTSE is higher than it was at the start of march. I think there will be a fall later in the year if it becomes apparent that there was actually a recession on the cards before Covid and the recovery is going to be more painful than most people thought. There is definitely an opportunity in specific stocks worst hit (leisure/travel etc) but the problem is that they are high risk. A proportion of these will go bankrupt so its the ones with strong balance sheets and low leverage that will survive and do well as more highly geared competitors disappear.
I put a fixed amount in every month and usually a lump sum at year end. I suppose I feel I'll get better value for my lump sum by putting it in now. That's the point I'm trying to make. Putting money into one stock or even a few is risky especially for the everyday person. Better to think long term. Get a good pension and build that pot.
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.
Quote from: shark on April 30, 2020, 11:46:41 AM
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.
You can also make money by buying shares when the price becomes attractive enough after it falls sufficiently.
When the general public rush in to buy, it usually signals a top in the market.
That would be these days...Dow closed 24,435.72 today...21,000 by mid-May according to bears.
Quote from: shark on April 30, 2020, 11:46:41 AM
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.
...and money.
Quote from: Ball Hopper on April 30, 2020, 09:15:05 PM
When the general public rush in to buy, it usually signals a top in the market.
That would be these days...Dow closed 24,435.72 today...21,000 by mid-May according to bears.
Sell in May as they say, I'm looking at getting back in and have seen some shares on my watch list like William Hill treble but certainly not tempted to get back in yet.
Quote from: Maroon Manc on May 01, 2020, 11:27:02 AM
Quote from: Ball Hopper on April 30, 2020, 09:15:05 PM
When the general public rush in to buy, it usually signals a top in the market.
That would be these days...Dow closed 24,435.72 today...21,000 by mid-May according to bears.
Sell in May as they say, I'm looking at getting back in and have seen some shares on my watch list like William Hill treble but certainly not tempted to get back in yet.
Are you being ironic?
Quote from: marty34 on April 30, 2020, 10:43:35 PM
Quote from: shark on April 30, 2020, 11:46:41 AM
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.
...and money.
Ha, that's fair!
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
The valuation of a share in the first chapter of a text book would say the NPV of all future cash flows. The rest of the book would then go on to explain why it's a lot more complicated than that... in very simple terms, it all comes down to supply and demand at the end of the day. People have to park their money somewhere and with interest rates so low, stocks are one of the only places to get a decent return.
What way will house prices look in a few months or when this is all over?
Quote from: marty34 on May 02, 2020, 10:22:28 AM
What way will house prices look in a few months or when this is all over?
Hard to say, but I can't imagine there will be a glut of supply. Demand will drop, but if supply does too then it may not have a huge effect on selling prices.
Rents could drop a fair bit though. Which in time could lead to more demand for purchasing, if renters are able to save more of their earnings.
Quote from: OgraAnDun on May 02, 2020, 09:02:07 AM
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
The valuation of a share in the first chapter of a text book would say the NPV of all future cash flows. The rest of the book would then go on to explain why it's a lot more complicated than that... in very simple terms, it all comes down to supply and demand at the end of the day. People have to park their money somewhere and with interest rates so low, stocks are one of the only places to get a decent return.
Check out share prices post QE. Revenues stagnant but huge prices rises.
Normally share prices grow with revenues but for most listed companies revenues didnt grow much. Share prices grew through a mixture of lower interest rates, lavoffs, salary cuts and financial engineering including buybacks where debt replaces equity. QE provided share demand. The richest 1% own half os US shares. They got the QE money.
Now shares have far less equity. Equity absorbs losses. Debt does not.
If there is another crash like 08 shares are fucked. Because prices do not reflect reality. Equity is loss absorbinng. Debt is not.
Where would you get reputable basic info. on investing?
www.cnbc.com
Dollar cost average in over a 3 or 6 month period
Quote from: Dire Ear on October 15, 2022, 12:37:47 PM
Where would you get reputable basic info. on investing?
https://www.simplifyconsulting.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Novice-Investor-whitepaper-v1.0.pdf
See if that link works for you and pm me if it doesn't sure and I can send you the pdf. Its an easy simple short read and will save you a lot of money.
Money unshackled do some great podcasts and YouTube vids if you can find the time and not just related to stocks and shares.
Quote from: shark on April 30, 2020, 11:46:41 AM
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2020, 11:30:16 AM
Shares are valued on the basis of interest rates using a method called net present value.
The lower the interest rate the higher the value of a share.
If interest rates go up the value of shares will fall.
If there is another crash the value of shares will fall
One would need to be able to price these risks really to justify investing in shares.
History has shown that all one needs is diversification and patience.
History has shown that all you need to win the Leinster football championship is a good team, experience , a few scoring forwards and luck.
But that doesn't work now.
It's the same in shares. You have volatility and inflation which are very unusual. These are systemic risks. they touch everything So you have to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
Diversification only works outside of systemic risk.
Thanks Seafoid and HiMucker
This is an example. The S&P index is American
If you bought it in 2018 at 2931 you would get a return of 26% over 4 years (3715/2931).
But the index fell 3 times in the meantime. And recovered twice. From the low of 2474 in 2018 you get an increase of 37% to 3380. and from 2290 you get a return of 91% to 4385.
So if when the market fell you put your money in cash and you put it back in when it starting moving up again you could make over 100%.
2018 High 2931,69
Low 2474,33
2020 High 3380,45
Low 2290,71
2022 High 4385,83
Low 3715,72
Aye but you need a crystal ball or luck for that sort of thing. Granted some investors manage to outperform the market but its incredibly risky, and some of the biggest players about consistently underperformed against vanguards original s&p 500 over a five year period. Time in the market as opposed to timing the market as they say.
I do it as part of my job.
There is going to be another crash -
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/10/12/henrich-the-velocity-of-the-move-in-yields-is-not-sustainable-without-breaking-something.html