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GAA Discussion => GAA Discussion => Topic started by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 09:34:43 AM

Title: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 09:34:43 AM
Leinster

The non Dublin half of the draw has Longford, Offaly, Louth , Meath, Westmeath .  Westmeath are already in the Sam Maguire..

Munster
The non Kerry side has Cork, Clare, Limerick

Connacht
One of London, Sligo, New York, Leitrim   

Ulster
Fermanagh, Derry, Tyrone, Monaghan
and
Donegal, Down, Cavan, Antrim, Fermanagh
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 09:39:08 AM
Ffs, I was gonna say we have a great chance, but you've kicked us out already!
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 10:24:41 AM
Kildare have to beat Louth on Sunday.
Louth could get to the Leinster final and be relegated.

I'd say there'll be 2 or max 3 D3/4 in the Sam. Westmeath, +  1 from Connacht and possibly one from Leinster.
D2 position 5 should be okay. Position 6 depends.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: FermGael on March 02, 2023, 10:42:57 AM
Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 11:00:54 AM
Quote from: FermGael on March 02, 2023, 10:42:57 AM
Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout
The groups of 4 will be seeded
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 11:08:53 AM
Quote from: FermGael on March 02, 2023, 10:42:57 AM
Is there not a big chance that alot of the bigger teams won't be that worried about the provincial finals this year and will be doing alot of heavy training ?

Surely they will want to peak for the group stages to make sure they make the last 16 knockout
Kerry and Dublin won't because they'll breeze through regardless. The 3 Connacht teams have all won it fairly recently so may have eyes on a bigger prize, although the Rossies realistically won't win Sam so should be going for silverware. Ulster championship still means something though and would be goal number one for Armagh this year I'd like to think, given our performances this past long time have been nowhere near good enough. None of the Ulster teams are realistically going to win Sam so the anglo celt is the next best thing.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: weareros on March 02, 2023, 11:55:55 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 10:24:41 AM
Kildare have to beat Louth on Sunday.
Louth could get to the Leinster final and be relegated.

I'd say there'll be 2 or max 3 D3/4 in the Sam. Westmeath, +  1 from Connacht and possibly one from Leinster.
D2 position 5 should be okay. Position 6 depends.

More than that.
1 from Munster guaranteed.
2 from Leinster guaranteed (though Dublin promoted)
1 from Connacht guaranteed.
1 from Ulster on current form (though Derry will be promoted). But could be 2 with some of the current form displayed by Div 1 teams.
Those not getting promoted fron Divsion 2 will be left sweating as many Div 1 teams will require the 7 ranked spots to make the group stages.

Sorry the above analysis is based on non-Div 1 teams making provincials. Only Kerry and 1 of Mayo/Galway/Ros are certain to qualify for group stages by qualifying for a provincial final.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:23:42 PM
be interesting at what intensity and hype will provincials be played at  like tyrone are still going to be in the last 16 of all ireland even if they get knocked out in ulster first round but i think seeding will be important so you want to win provincial or get too final.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:29:02 PM
is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Smokin Joe on March 02, 2023, 01:41:29 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:29:02 PM
is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.
In theory it is possible, although highly unlikely.
The greater number of provincial finalists that come from Div 3 or 4 the less Div 2 (and in theory, ultimately, Div 1) teams will make the Sam Maguire based on their league placings.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 01:43:19 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:29:02 PM
is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.
Not this year but if the current trajectory continues, maybe next year.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Itchy on March 02, 2023, 01:57:36 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

Well if Cavan would have no choice competing for Sam and thats some sort of pre-requisite then I think we can cut down the All Ireland Series to 4/5 teams as theres only Dublin in Leinster, Kerry in Munster, Galway and Mayo in Connacht and is there even anyone in Ulster - Maybe Derry.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 03:11:48 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
At least theres plenty of chances to get out of the TC- win it or get the finger out in the league and get to a decent level. I don't think provincial finalists should get to Sam though, just winners.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 03:45:01 PM
They need 16 plus 16. 4x4x2
Only provincial winners probably wouldn't work.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 03:49:52 PM
Of course it would
Last year's Sam and TC winners, this year's 4 Provincial Champions and the 10 highest League teams.
Dreadnought making a great case for the abolition of Club Intermediate and Junior Championships.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 03:51:18 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 03:11:48 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
At least theres plenty of chances to get out of the TC- win it or get the finger out in the league and get to a decent level. I don't think provincial finalists should get to Sam though, just winners.

The thing is though, not all things are created equal. Like Cavan could conceivably get out out of Div3 by winning all games with a great points difference, win the final, and unlike Louth and Limerick last year who got promoted, still not get into Sam. The pathways are not equal. Winning the TC only works for next year, not that year, and is a one off ticket. Teams in certain provinces have an easier path, and this year we have a guaranteed team from Div4 reaching Connacht final and thereby into Sam.

But conversely, just provincial winners would be harsh. As some ones are harder than others, especially Ulster where a Div3 team getting to a final would see you at the very least have to beat 2 Div1 teams. But this won't be rewarded unless you win the final too? I don't have the answer, just pointing out the way things move and swerve annually depending on practically luck of the draw in certain provinces. The layout and qualification for it isn't right yet and needs to be rethought with the correct reward being there
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: greatpoint on March 02, 2023, 03:53:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 03:49:52 PM
Of course it would
Last year's Sam and TC winners, this year's 4 Provincial Champions and the 10 highest League teams.
Dreadnought making a great case for the abolition of Club Intermediate and Junior Championships.

It's quite unlikely that the eventual All-Ireland winners wouldn't come from one of the four provincial champions.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 03:55:00 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 03:49:52 PM
Of course it would
Last year's Sam and TC winners, this year's 4 Provincial Champions and the 10 highest League teams.
Dreadnought making a great case for the abolition of Club Intermediate and Junior Championships.

Think there needs to be more thought to it than that. Getting to a final I think still needs to be rewarded.

Haha yeah i get you. Just think intercounty is different where we have fully linked League and need to take everything that comes with that. I think only Monaghan has something similar, but I'm sure others with knowledge of other county championships can let us know. Just pointing out it isn't perfect and needs tweaking still
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 04:13:31 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 03:51:18 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 03:11:48 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
At least theres plenty of chances to get out of the TC- win it or get the finger out in the league and get to a decent level. I don't think provincial finalists should get to Sam though, just winners.

The thing is though, not all things are created equal. Like Cavan could conceivably get out out of Div3 by winning all games with a great points difference, win the final, and unlike Louth and Limerick last year who got promoted, still not get into Sam. The pathways are not equal. Winning the TC only works for next year, not that year, and is a one off ticket. Teams in certain provinces have an easier path, and this year we have a guaranteed team from Div4 reaching Connacht final and thereby into Sam.

But conversely, just provincial winners would be harsh. As some ones are harder than others, especially Ulster where a Div3 team getting to a final would see you at the very least have to beat 2 Div1 teams. But this won't be rewarded unless you win the final too? I don't have the answer, just pointing out the way things move and swerve annually depending on practically luck of the draw in certain provinces. The layout and qualification for it isn't right yet and needs to be rethought with the correct reward being there
It was Cavan I was sort of thinking of when I said only provincial winners should get through- they're  likely going to win division 3 at a canter this year and could lose a sam maguire place to a shite connacht team purely by luck of the draw (obviously hoping Cavan don't get to an Ulster final this year lol)
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 04:23:28 PM
Quote from: greatpoint on March 02, 2023, 03:53:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 03:49:52 PM
Of course it would
Last year's Sam and TC winners, this year's 4 Provincial Champions and the 10 highest League teams.
Dreadnought making a great case for the abolition of Club Intermediate and Junior Championships.

It's quite unlikely that the eventual All-Ireland winners wouldn't come from one of the four provincial champions.
Dublin and Kerry are a bit off this year. I think it's going to be more open than usual.
There is a 3 way dogfight in Connacht on one side of the draw between Roscommon, Mayo and Galway. 2 of those will  not be in the provincial final.
Derry could lose to Tyrone and win the all Ireland
Armagh could lose to Donegal and do something.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: greatpoint on March 02, 2023, 04:33:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 04:23:28 PM
Quote from: greatpoint on March 02, 2023, 03:53:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 03:49:52 PM
Of course it would
Last year's Sam and TC winners, this year's 4 Provincial Champions and the 10 highest League teams.
Dreadnought making a great case for the abolition of Club Intermediate and Junior Championships.

It's quite unlikely that the eventual All-Ireland winners wouldn't come from one of the four provincial champions.
Dublin and Kerry are a bit off this year. I think it's going to be more open than usual.
There is a 3 way dogfight in Connacht on one side of the draw between Roscommon, Mayo and Galway. 2 of those will  not be in the provincial final.
Derry could lose to Tyrone and win the all Ireland
Armagh could lose to Donegal and do something.

Anything is possible in theory, it just hasn't happened since 2010.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:25:35 PM
Something else I've thought of since the above conversation was broached, is the further qualification. We obviously have the Tailteann winner as only guaranteed at the start of the season. Then your 8 finalists, and then the next 8 (or 9 if the Tailteann winner gets to the final) on League basis.

I've a little problem with this as well. We'll likely run into a situation in future where the bottom end of Division 2 will be the cut off. i.e. 4th and 5th get in, but 6th don't. Let's say we've a situation where these finish level on points, and points difference is used. Pure points difference isn't the best way to split, as one team could have 4 home 3 away games, and vice versa for the other. One may have got the worst performing relegated team at home and run up a good score on the last day in great weather when they're already relegated, the other went away to them on the first day in a low scoring encounter in blizzard conditions when they were up for the fight. Yet come Championship time, we split these 2 to different tiers based on scores back early in the year? I'm uneasy with this. A lot of faults with it are not thought out, and could be uproar if the above happens.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 04:13:31 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 03:51:18 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 03:11:48 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
At least theres plenty of chances to get out of the TC- win it or get the finger out in the league and get to a decent level. I don't think provincial finalists should get to Sam though, just winners.

The thing is though, not all things are created equal. Like Cavan could conceivably get out out of Div3 by winning all games with a great points difference, win the final, and unlike Louth and Limerick last year who got promoted, still not get into Sam. The pathways are not equal. Winning the TC only works for next year, not that year, and is a one off ticket. Teams in certain provinces have an easier path, and this year we have a guaranteed team from Div4 reaching Connacht final and thereby into Sam.

But conversely, just provincial winners would be harsh. As some ones are harder than others, especially Ulster where a Div3 team getting to a final would see you at the very least have to beat 2 Div1 teams. But this won't be rewarded unless you win the final too? I don't have the answer, just pointing out the way things move and swerve annually depending on practically luck of the draw in certain provinces. The layout and qualification for it isn't right yet and needs to be rethought with the correct reward being there
It was Cavan I was sort of thinking of when I said only provincial winners should get through- they're  likely going to win division 3 at a canter this year and could lose a sam maguire place to a shite connacht team purely by luck of the draw (obviously hoping Cavan don't get to an Ulster final this year lol)

Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 05:49:25 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 04:13:31 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 03:51:18 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on March 02, 2023, 03:11:48 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 02:34:42 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 02, 2023, 11:47:09 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 10:15:42 AM
Cavan will have to reach UF to qualify for Sam so they'll be bursting the boilers to get there.
Derry to get there too.
Mayowestros  v Sligo in Connacht
Dublin v Meath in Leinster
Kerry v Cork in Munster

I'm not sure that will make any difference. I'm sure they'd prefer to be in Sam Maguire but they have no chance of competing to win Sam whereas they'd have a good chance of winning a Tailteamm Cup. Outside of Dublin, Derry and at a push Kildare, Cork and Meath, none of the other Div 2 counties will compete at the business end of the championship.

I get what you mean, but we want to be up. If we get into Sam, we'll have got to an Ulster final, so will be at the level to be competitive. That says more to me than playing teams in the Tier 2 competition. For all that the Tailteann is bigged up to be, it is a good competition for some, but not for the teams who probably shouldn't be there or at least have the ability to play Sam to a good level. At the end of the day the reward for winning it is you don't play it again which says a lot. All I feel it does is create a very clear divide and teams down there can't get much better as they're only playing themselves which creates a ceiling, while the ladder is pulled up above them and those teams playing each other drive each other on. Division 3 and 4 teams all only play themselves all league and again in their Championship (bar the odd provincial game v D1/D2 teams should the draw fall that way). I say get up and get up quick before the gap widens
At least theres plenty of chances to get out of the TC- win it or get the finger out in the league and get to a decent level. I don't think provincial finalists should get to Sam though, just winners.

The thing is though, not all things are created equal. Like Cavan could conceivably get out out of Div3 by winning all games with a great points difference, win the final, and unlike Louth and Limerick last year who got promoted, still not get into Sam. The pathways are not equal. Winning the TC only works for next year, not that year, and is a one off ticket. Teams in certain provinces have an easier path, and this year we have a guaranteed team from Div4 reaching Connacht final and thereby into Sam.

But conversely, just provincial winners would be harsh. As some ones are harder than others, especially Ulster where a Div3 team getting to a final would see you at the very least have to beat 2 Div1 teams. But this won't be rewarded unless you win the final too? I don't have the answer, just pointing out the way things move and swerve annually depending on practically luck of the draw in certain provinces. The layout and qualification for it isn't right yet and needs to be rethought with the correct reward being there
It was Cavan I was sort of thinking of when I said only provincial winners should get through- they're  likely going to win division 3 at a canter this year and could lose a sam maguire place to a shite connacht team purely by luck of the draw (obviously hoping Cavan don't get to an Ulster final this year lol)

Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.
Absolutely. That conversations been had plenty of times on here.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Solo_run on March 02, 2023, 05:50:27 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:29:02 PM
is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.

A very unlikely scenario but it is possible Tyrone do not make the AI.

A D1 or high ranked D2 must not feature in the Ulster final/Leinster final or Munster. If the below provincial finals or equivalent played out Tyrone would not be in the AI.

Mayo vs Sligo
Tipperary vs Cork/Clare
Cavan vs Fermanagh
Kildare vs Louth

Westmeath are already there.

Based on current league standing

Mayo - Their ranking is irrelevant as they would be in the provincial final. Same could happen for Galway or Roscommon.
1. Roscommon
2. Kerry
3. Galway
4. Monaghan
5. Armagh
6. Derry
7. Dublin
---------------------
8. Donegal
9. Tyrone


If Tyrone were relegated from D1 at the bottom of the league they would replace the 2nd placed teams in D2 ranking making them the 9th ranked team where Mayo are omitted because they are in the final.   

Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 05:54:17 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games
That league was awful.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 06:01:18 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 05:54:17 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games
That league was awful.

It really was. It was a nonsensical layout, split on such arbitrary lines. And some were affected more than others. We were grouped with Derry and Fermanagh, while there was a harsher lockdown in the South. They were out doing group training and playing challenges something like 4 weeks ahead of the other 2 teams when the North allowed opening sooner.

Should have been a better solution that deciding placings on 3 group games
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:09:45 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games

Covid league is a excuse.  Could have avoided relegation to Div 3 in 2020 by beating or drawing with Roscommon at home who was missing half their team due to covid. Then somehow allowed themselves to drop to Division four by losing to Wicklow in the play off.

This is Clare's eighth year in a row in Division 2 doing what at a minimum Cavan should be doing.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 06:17:20 PM
Quote from: Solo_run on March 02, 2023, 05:50:27 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on March 02, 2023, 01:29:02 PM
is their a scenario where say tyrone dont make sam maguire group stages.

A very unlikely scenario but it is possible Tyrone do not make the AI.

A D1 or high ranked D2 must not feature in the Ulster final/Leinster final or Munster. If the below provincial finals or equivalent played out Tyrone would not be in the AI.

Mayo vs Sligo
Tipperary vs Cork/Clare
Cavan vs Fermanagh
Kildare vs Louth

Westmeath are already there.

Based on current league standing

Mayo - Their ranking is irrelevant as they would be in the provincial final. Same could happen for Galway or Roscommon.
1. Roscommon
2. Kerry
3. Galway
4. Monaghan
5. Armagh
6. Derry
7. Dublin
---------------------
8. Donegal
9. Tyrone


If Tyrone were relegated from D1 at the bottom of the league they would replace the 2nd placed teams in D2 ranking making them the 9th ranked team where Mayo are omitted because they are in the final.
Has such a scenario ever happened in the last 50 years ?
Covid in 2020 had 2 D3 winners in Cavan and Tipp but Dublin won Leinster and Mayo won Connacht.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: twohands!!! on March 02, 2023, 06:18:47 PM
I think the fact that the provincial losers are going into the group stages as the second seed is a mistake.

To me it feels like the reward for getting to a provincial final is far too high compared to the difficulty of being one of the top 4 league sides (after the 8 provincial sides are taken out)

I think it would make far more sense to have the four provincial losers as the third seeds.

If the provincial losers remain second seeds, I think you will end up with a situation where most of the time the second seeds will end up losing by greater scores to the first seeds than the third seeds.

I think the reason that provincial losers are going to be the second seeds was due to the provincial councils and the size of their voting block.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 06:28:28 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:09:45 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games

Covid league is a excuse.  Could have avoided relegation to Div 3 in 2020 by beating or drawing with Roscommon at home who was missing half their team due to covid. Then somehow allowed themselves to drop to Division four by losing to Wicklow in the play off.

This is Clare's eighth year in a row in Division 2 doing what at a minimum Cavan should be doing.
Galway also were relegated to D2 that season after losing to Monaghan la cucaracha . 3 matches was not enough. The allocations were arbitrary. We had Dublin, Kerry and Ros.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 06:29:39 PM
Quote from: twohands!!! on March 02, 2023, 06:18:47 PM
I think the fact that the provincial losers are going into the group stages as the second seed is a mistake.

To me it feels like the reward for getting to a provincial final is far too high compared to the difficulty of being one of the top 4 league sides (after the 8 provincial sides are taken out)

I think it would make far more sense to have the four provincial losers as the third seeds.

If the provincial losers remain second seeds, I think you will end up with a situation where most of the time the second seeds will end up losing by greater scores to the first seeds than the third seeds.

I think the reason that provincial losers are going to be the second seeds was due to the provincial councils and the size of their voting block.
The GAA are hoors for the provincial championships and all that go with them.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Sportacus on March 02, 2023, 06:34:26 PM
Was chatting to a friend who'd be more the Ulster Rugby type, and he was telling me him and his mates have fairly lost interest in the rugby because the format has changed so much and they could hardly even tell you anymore how the competitions work.
I fear GAA is making the same mistake.  I'm completely lost.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Solo_run on March 02, 2023, 06:40:21 PM
I do not like the new format.

It is crazy that Mayo or Roscommon could win this weekend and choose not to play another game for 10+ weeks when the AI series starts.

Tbf that goes for any of the teams that secure D1 status.

I would prefer having an open draw and setup two divisions with the top 8 from each division going into the AI last 16 and the best ranked provincial teams contest a provincial final. 
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:47:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 06:28:28 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:09:45 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games

Covid league is a excuse.  Could have avoided relegation to Div 3 in 2020 by beating or drawing with Roscommon at home who was missing half their team due to covid. Then somehow allowed themselves to drop to Division four by losing to Wicklow in the play off.

This is Clare's eighth year in a row in Division 2 doing what at a minimum Cavan should be doing.
Galway also were relegated to D2 that season after losing to Monaghan la cucaracha . 3 matches was not enough. The allocations were arbitrary. We had Dublin, Kerry and Ros.

Losing to Monaghan in Clones one of the toughest places in the league to earn a result is more acceptable than what Cavan did.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Rossfan on March 02, 2023, 07:07:04 PM
Quote from: Sportacus on March 02, 2023, 06:34:26 PM
Was chatting to a friend who'd be more the Ulster Rugby type, and he was telling me him and his mates have fairly lost interest in the rugby because the format has changed so much and they could hardly even tell you anymore how the competitions work.
I fear GAA is making the same mistake.  I'm completely lost.
Everyone else understands it perfectly as no doubt the 90+% of Congress delegates who voted for it.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 07:58:41 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:09:45 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games

Covid league is a excuse.  Could have avoided relegation to Div 3 in 2020 by beating or drawing with Roscommon at home who was missing half their team due to covid. Then somehow allowed themselves to drop to Division four by losing to Wicklow in the play off.

This is Clare's eighth year in a row in Division 2 doing what at a minimum Cavan should be doing.

Not an excuse, we still should have stayed up. Doesn't mean it wasn't a ridiculous setup though and was completely lopsided against certain counties from the start. The 2 things can be true

And should be alright. Also got relegated from Div 2 on a high points total that no one since has got relegated on. On a head to head v Clare too on another Covid split league. Clare have certainly done well but got the rub of the green at times too. Didn't they push Cork out of that Covid league on a few points difference, even after Cork beat them? Again, that league was a joke.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 08:09:21 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:47:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 02, 2023, 06:28:28 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 06:09:45 PM
Quote from: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 05:49:00 PM
Quote from: Captain Obvious on March 02, 2023, 05:31:42 PM
Cavan have only themselves to blame if they aren't in the Sam Maguire group stage. Fell to Division four when they should be at the very least a Division two team and wasted their opportunity by not winning the Tailteann cup.

Way to miss the point that I was trying to make

And remember we had that joke Covid league split on geography in the middle of that. Could easily have been up to Div2 with a proper league and not that setup based off 3 games

Covid league is a excuse.  Could have avoided relegation to Div 3 in 2020 by beating or drawing with Roscommon at home who was missing half their team due to covid. Then somehow allowed themselves to drop to Division four by losing to Wicklow in the play off.

This is Clare's eighth year in a row in Division 2 doing what at a minimum Cavan should be doing.
Galway also were relegated to D2 that season after losing to Monaghan la cucaracha . 3 matches was not enough. The allocations were arbitrary. We had Dublin, Kerry and Ros.

Losing to Monaghan in Clones one of the toughest places in the league to earn a result is more acceptable than what Cavan did.
It was very traumatic.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/gaelic-games/darragh-o-se-galway-s-defeat-at-the-death-to-monaghan-is-shocking-and-unforgivable-1.4594401
Conroy was having a great game, he was driving Galway on from midfield, really standing out. And then he got involved in a stupid tussle with Hughes over a sideline ball and pulled his ankle from under him for the easiest black card David Gough will ever give. That's one of your leaders taking himself out of the game with relegation on the line. No wonder Joyce didn't want to talk to the media after the game.
As for Duane, he probably didn't feel overly comfortable being the last man back on the edge of the square. But even so, you can't get turned like that so close to goal. At least make Hughes shoot with his bad foot. Duane made such a bad decision that it would actually have been better for Galway if he hadn't moved at all. If he had literally stood still, there was a better chance of Hughes hitting him with the ball. Instead, he opened up the only route to goal.
That was the killer score. But even after it, Galway didn't need to lose the game. They got themselves a point ahead and tackled like demons through the last play of the game to try and turn Monaghan over. And they very nearly got there. But in the end, they allowed Conor McManus to score an equaliser from the middle of the pitch on the edge of the D.
Great players make great plays. All you can do is try to make them have to do something special to beat you. Monaghan have called on McManus countless times over the years to get them out of a hole – would this one even be in his top 20? Once he had possession, all he had to do was cut inside onto his good foot and score from straight in front of the posts.
Title: Re: Most likely provincial finalists
Post by: Dreadnought on March 02, 2023, 08:16:21 PM
Quote from: Solo_run on March 02, 2023, 06:40:21 PM
I do not like the new format.

It is crazy that Mayo or Roscommon could win this weekend and choose not to play another game for 10+ weeks when the AI series starts.

Tbf that goes for any of the teams that secure D1 status.

I would prefer having an open draw and setup two divisions with the top 8 from each division going into the AI last 16 and the best ranked provincial teams contest a provincial final.

My hot take is that the leagues should be reset to the old A and B format, so that they mirror the championships. Redraw Div1 and Div2 into 1A and 1B based on previous year and so on. Have bottom 2 in each 1A and 1B playoff for 2 relegation spots l, top 2 in each 2A and 2B playoff for 2 promotion. It's more equitable, and means each year every team has the chance to go up or down and gain entry to Sam. Could still add the stipulation for Tailteann winner or provincial finalists who didn't go up from the 2 divisions to get into Sam ahead of the relegation playoff winners and so on. Also creates a league with good mixing of the current Div1 and Div2, and Div3 and Div4 teams in each and prevents teams pulling ahead or falling away too much, with ability to move up or down yearly.

Won't happen though. Those in Division 1 like being up there by themselves. For me though, it makes sense to feed properly into the Championship seeing as we're down that linked to League path.