Will the Brits continue to prop it up?
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ?
Are SF competent ?
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge?
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Yes
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes
Are SF competent ? No
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? No
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently? No
Quote from: seafoid on April 28, 2022, 12:43:07 PM
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Kicking and screaming
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes
Are SF competent ? Yes
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? Alliance party
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently yes
Quote from: seafoid on April 28, 2022, 12:43:07 PM
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Unwillingly
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ?Yes
Are SF competent ? No
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? Hopefully
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently Not for another 20 years
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Until their patience runs out
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility? Yes
Are SF competent ? - No, "comrade" shite on their twitter pushes away moderates
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? Alliance
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently? More chance of Casement being built
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? In the short term yes but in the background there will be those in the British establishment who are already thinking of how best to make a strategic withdrawal.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes, if it is voted for democratically via a border poll then a phased subvention from US/EU will ease the burden until the country reconfigures economically.
Are SF competent ? They have come a long way but still have more to do to convince. The proof of the pudding will be their performance if and when they enter proper government in the south.
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? It already does but the lundification from loyalists & hard unionism drowns it out politically.
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently Short to mid term, no. Long term, with a bit of luck.
Probably
Probably
No
Unlikely
No, nay, never.
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Not forever
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes as SF will be in government soon
Are SF competent ? Yes
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? Alliance
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently. Eventually.
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? No.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes, with a predicted economic benefit of unification estimated to be in the range of 30 billion euro, it makes perfect sense.
Are SF competent ? Yes.
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? Unionist with a small 'u', agree ... with that likely to be Alliance.
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently. Yes.
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? No.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yeah I think they will due to the guilt of letting us go in the first place
Are SF competent ? Have seen very little evidence of it bar 1 or 2 decent politicians if/when they get into Govt in the South will tell the tale!
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? I think so yes between the Alliance and UUP the younger generation of middle class are getting apathetic to the whole thing
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently. Not unless the GAA pull the finger out or a JP McManus type figure pumps a shedload of cash into it
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? For as long as they have to, yes.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility? If the voters choose it, they'll have to.
Are SF competent? More so than before.
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? I hope so. Alliance has had a few wins, and Doug Beattie is taking the UUP in the direction they should have gone years ago by being a moderate alternative to the DUP, taking it back to the successful strategy it had under Molyneux. Trying to out-DUP the DUP has not worked for them. It'll be interesting to see how it works for them in the assembly election.
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently? "Ever" implies an infinite amount of time into the future, so it's entirely possible.
sf become biggest party with lots of weeks of talking and nolan and crawley on about it every day
Think Naomi Long puts it well in one of the Alliance interviews, you wouldnt hire someone for a job and let them decide they will only do it depending on who else is working alongside them so how could you vote for anyone that won't go into government if the person they want leading isn't leading.
Honestly think it will boil down to money.
If NI is weaned off GB reliance then it will be easier to sell to the RoI taxpayer.
Softer unionists will in time get more comfortable with the idea of a NI within a UI. At the same time nationalists will have to get used to the idea that a NI within a UI is exactly that i.e. we would still have a 6 county entity with rights to British identity/passport and power sharing via D'Hondt and a role for the GB government.
This also gives the RoI voter the reassurance that the entity they will be taking on offers something for unionists. Not that I think this means a seamless and peaceful transition. In all likelihood it will be messy and people on the island will die. We are a basket case and will provide trouble for anyone that tries to help us.
I don't think money will change many Unionist minds. The RoI was an economic basket case for much of it's existence. So much so that despite a high birthrate the population actually declined because so many people left.
And yet never in that time was there a movement to rejoin the UK even though that may have been a better option economically.
Quote from: dec on April 28, 2022, 09:54:52 PM
I don't think money will change many Unionist minds. The RoI was an economic basket case for much of it's existence. So much so that despite a high birthrate the population actually declined because so many people left.
And yet never in that time was there a movement to rejoin the UK even though that may have been a better option economically.
I specifically said that economics could help sell NI to RoI voters. And it's a could. A lot a flesh will be needed on those particular bones
is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland or even right wing types in the south
Quote from: Eire90 on April 28, 2022, 10:23:53 PM
is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland or even right wing types in the south
Yes and Yes.
But others also. If you were not middle class or right wing why would you vote to take on an economic and security nightmare. A lot of work will need to be done to address those 2 points. And real work that stands up to scrutiny. Not some report that says that everything goes well and nothing goes wrong then everything will probably be ok.
Quote from: Eire90 on April 28, 2022, 10:23:53 PM
is there a real chance that middle class types vote against a united Ireland or even right wing types in the south
What do you mean by "right-wing"? I would say that conservative nationalist types (if that's what you mean) would and should certainly vote for a united Ireland, not least to get a sizeable conservative nationalist (aka unionist) influence into Irish politics.
Quote from: dec on April 28, 2022, 09:54:52 PM
I don't think money will change many Unionist minds. The RoI was an economic basket case for much of it's existence. So much so that despite a high birthrate the population actually declined because so many people left.
And yet never in that time was there a movement to rejoin the UK even though that may have been a better option economically.
This is not quite the same, the population declined even faster for the previous 80 years of being in the UK.
But the point is relevant, prosperity is helpful. The problem is that the largest nationalist party has no plan to increase prosperity, their only interest is in taxing someone else to provide more spending. Such a party cannot persuade people that they will be better off.
On another point, the headlines today are that life expectancy in the ROI is the highest in the EU. This is caused by Covid, since Ireland suffered less from that than other places. However, a gap has opened with NI and the UK generally, yet everyone will tell you that the loss of the NHS is a major issue in unification!
When you actually break it down it's only two generations (your Grandad's) when the Island was all one and its been like that from time began. A lot of you forget this based on your questions especially the first two...WTF. It feels like you gave us up for adoption but the Foster parents no longer want us so we're kinda homeless (like when you know your parents don't love you anymore for being a rough teenager...lol)
Will the Brits continue to prop it up? Many Irish seem to think the Brits will grant a border poll once they are certain a UI will be won. But the current shower would not give the steam of their piss. They would see it as a loss to the EU. They will dig in.
Will the South ever agree to take on the responsibility ? Yes, but per above.
Are SF competent ? Like any Irish party, some very talented and some very mediocre.
Will a pragmatic Unionism emerge? It will but it will still be pro Union.
Will Antrim ever join the Liam McCarthy permanently - important for game there's strong hurling power in Ulster.
The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.
Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.
10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.
Quote from: marty34 on April 29, 2022, 01:21:30 PM
The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.
Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.
10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.
Would being religious even be a thing now? While I'm catholic I haven't nor can I see me ever practicing again, I can't see religion showing signs of a UI like you have said..
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on April 29, 2022, 01:29:42 PM
Quote from: marty34 on April 29, 2022, 01:21:30 PM
The census results, later in the year, will be very interesting.
Especially the religious breakdown - not that it counts in terms of border poll predictions but interesting all the same.
10 years is a long time since the 2011 one.
Would being religious even be a thing now? While I'm catholic I haven't nor can I see me ever practicing again, I can't see religion showing signs of a UI like you have said..
Not so much the religion question it will be the community background question that is the headline figure as that Hoover's up all the atheists nicely into green and orange sections. As for the nationality question that's just a mess as the Northern Irish will be claimed by all. I'm convinced it was brought in to soften the blow of falling figures for themmuns as they can say Northern Irish is British and oh look only 25% say they are actually Irish.
Quote from: illdecide on April 29, 2022, 11:09:33 AM
When you actually break it down it's only two generations (your Grandad's) when the Island was all one and its been like that from time began. A lot of you forget this based on your questions especially the first two...WTF. It feels like you gave us up for adoption but the Foster parents no longer want us so we're kinda homeless (like when you know your parents don't love you anymore for being a rough teenager...lol)
I think this misses several points.
It's pure fiction to portray Ireland as being "one" since time began up to partition. History will take the wind out of the sails of that argument and if you go back further geology will hole it well and truly below the water line.
But in the here and now there are massive issues with Irish identity (not to say that there not even bigger issues with British identity). Lots of people living in Ireland have an Irish identity that does not encompass NI. They have at best no interest in NI and very possibly a dislike for us nordies. I have witnessed (and occasionally received) an increasing amount of abuse based on an accent or number plate at GAA matches in recent years. Then there is the southern approach to unionists and to adopting a weird little state with power sharing and a bucket load of problems. Many of these problems will spike when this whole thing comes up seriously for debate.
Selling that Ireland to the Irish could be harder than selling snow to the Inuits.
https://www.ft.com/content/364e7e50-e1a5-4d88-bce4-2604536a2f7b
Six years on from a Brexit which it voted decisively against, Northern Ireland remains trapped in its consequences, let down by both the UK government and the strategic blunders of its largest party, the Democratic Unionists.
Sinn Féin is leading in polls in Ireland too: the thought of it in power on both sides of the border alarms unionists. Showing it can lead a stable, pragmatic executive in the north would boost its standing in the Republic.
The DUP is threatening a boycott until the protocol is scrapped, a particularly dreadful stance for Northern Irish democracy if Sinn Féin were to win. Intransigence is almost its last electoral gambit after a litany of political errors which included supporting Brexit (while opposing every model of how it might work)
The intricate Stormont structures, once essential for peace, are now loading the system against moderates and limiting space for compromise. The power to collapse the executive is being abused.
Tories know that a modern, less sectarian Northern Ireland is the best way to safeguard the Union, but the structures work against it. If both Sinn Féin and the DUP do lose vote share, the need to address a system unduly weighted in their favour becomes more pressing.
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.
I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.
On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.
I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.
On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare rather than invest.
NI underperforms.
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.
I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.
On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare rather than invest.
NI underperforms.
I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:45:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.
I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.
On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare rather than invest.
NI underperforms.
I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems
To improve educational performance
1. Do away with grammar schools.
2. Bring back technical colleges, so many trades struggling for workers.
3. Make schools promote and teach practical skills on a par with exams
4. Expand EWA down from 16 to 14 but tie it into attendance at school. No school = no money.
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:45:46 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 05:30:35 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 05:14:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on April 29, 2022, 04:46:04 PM
I think NI has a lot of problems but I don't know if they are all insoluble. Sectarianism is probably linked to poor education levels. Low productivity is linked to low investment.
It's curious that you said education standards rather than education structure. You say sectarianism is probably linked to education standards. What evidence have you got to support this? Would the mix of eduction standards in NI be any different that say GB or RoI? Education standards might well a problem in need of a solution but if education standards are no worse than elsewhere I think we can see that it's not an easily soluble problem. Then you add in NI's complicating factors.
I suspect the in built sectarian structures of NI education might be a bigger factor in societal sectarianism. Try removing that and you will meet significant resistance.
On productivity I agree on your description of the problem (ie a lack of investment) but the solution is easier to point to (we need more investment) than it is to deliver (ie attracting that investment - we have had the GFA and American fanfare, we have had EU support programmes and a sustained GB subvention. We also have the protocol and "the best of both worlds". Don't get me wrong, the position is improving. But people are unlikely to believe there is some magic investment tree just waiting to be unlocked. Brexit has taught people to make sure the promises are underwritten before any vote.
Loyalist education is a huge problem. So is the post industrial situation. The British state preferred to put people on social welfare rather than invest.
NI underperforms.
I agree with all this. But my previous post was challenging how easy these problems would be to solve. Restating the description of the problem is not a solution. Nor is it any sort of comment on the ease of solving these problems
The UK regions have been starved of investment since 1980. Not just NI. Some kind of mean reversion would make a big difference to NI. Money would go a long way. So would an authority that cared about the place. The post industrial mess has to be a priority. NI bonds could be issued with a decent yield to go with Government input. They could be repaid via increased productivity.
Now much money would NI need ? Does the Protocol qualify for Structural funds ?
The economy has to be weaned off the subvention as well.
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.
You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.
The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.
Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.
Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.
We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.
In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.
I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.
To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.
All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.
And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI
I think an M1 that goes to Strabane and I think Lough Neagh will have criuse ships.
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 10:24:53 PM
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.
You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.
The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.
Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.
Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.
We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.
In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.
I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.
To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.
All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.
And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI
The education system would have to be reformed to become non sectarian.
I think the educational system is a structural weakness.
The Unionist system is breaking down. The economic metrics for NI are very weak in the UK context.
This is independent of whether or not peoplev want change
The province has a special status given the potential for intercommunal violence. So money would be available. The question is which model is likely to be most sustainable.
You are getting there.
The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?
We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.
Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term
Quote from: smelmoth on April 30, 2022, 11:50:30 AM
You are getting there.
The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?
We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.
Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term
A lot of NI political focus is worthless. Sectarianism has no tradeable value. NI needs a majority of rational politicians.
Neither the deindustrialisation nor the war have been properly dealt with. Bringing NI up.to speed would also be attractive to pension funds etc.
Quote from: seafoid on April 30, 2022, 12:50:40 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on April 30, 2022, 11:50:30 AM
You are getting there.
The big question for nationalism is how peaceful and functioning does NI have to be to be attractive to a majority of the RoI electorate? And how does nationalism help get NI to that state?
We are now in a position where nationalists have to make the NI state work to realise their constitutional dreams and conversely unionism knows that the more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive it is to the RoI voter. Only then do we realise the political significance of the antagonist, author, footballer, bin enthusiast and Queen's Counsel that is J Bryson.
Winding unionists up and creating a platform for our wee Jamie might rally the republican vote in NI but a volte face will ultimately be required to actually achieve anything constitutional. A prolonged period of influence for Alliance or other unaligned parties might serve SF better in the long term
A lot of NI political focus is worthless. Sectarianism has no tradeable value. NI needs a majority of rational politicians.
Neither the deindustrialisation nor the war have been properly dealt with. Bringing NI up.to speed would also be attractive to pension funds etc.
Salad
Spectacular
Word
Quote from: Rossfan on April 28, 2022, 03:22:12 PM
Probably
Probably
No
Unlikely
No, nay, never.
What party/parties are competent in your view?
Quote from: smelmoth on April 29, 2022, 10:24:53 PM
Seafoid you seem to be on the cusp of word salad.
You identify education and sectarianism as issues but seem to be dancing around the elephant in the room here. A religiously segregated education system is sectarianism strongest ally. Failure to tackle this is a failure to tackle sectarianism.
The system we have has other flaws. Flaws which should be addressed but there is no getting away from the core issue.
Included in these problems is standards and relative educational attainment. But these differences exist elsewhere without the consequent sectarianism.
Again I would stress that these problems are not easily fixed. Most would not consider them readily soluble.
We are all in agreement that NI needs investment now and into the future. Talk of other areas lacking in investment doesn't address the NI issue. NI needs investment to succeed. Promises of funding will have to be tested.
In a UI the money would have to come from ROI unless serious flesh can be put on the bones before any vote or if somehow NI could be weaned off the subvention.
I think SF have recognised much of this. But they haven't yet done anything to prepare their electorate north or south for the type of NI we are talking about, the timescale it could be achieved, the potential cost and the accommodation that will have to be extended to unionism to achieve a UI.
To achieve a UI that ROI will vote for NI will have to be significantly less sectarian. It will have to be cheaper. And it will include a NI entity with power sharing and a role for UK. It will have a significant population (maybe up to 1 million) who have an allegiance to Britain and possibly the crown.
All of which is possible. But it's slow and will take massive leadership.
And that is before you even think about getting a UI majority in NI
Sectarianism and the Union plus the after effects of the war are the big ones I think. Being part of the UK in the last 40 years was not to NI's advantage .
A misfiring NI will be of no interest to the South. NI would have to be self propelling which would mean cutting out most of the waste that exists today. It's a bit like East Germany in 1990.
A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.
Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.
Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?
We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.
A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.
This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.
Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.
Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.
Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.
Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 09:39:06 AM
A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.
Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.
Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?
We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.
A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.
This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.
There are funds all over the world looking for a decent return . Why is NI lagging behind Scotland and the RoI? is it because of the history? Is there anything that can be fixed? Is there any reason the people can't be more productive before integrated education kicks in?
Quote from: johnnycool on May 02, 2022, 11:38:54 AM
Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.
Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.
Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.
A slither?
Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?
Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.
My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.
Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on
Quote from: seafoid on May 02, 2022, 12:28:13 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 09:39:06 AM
A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.
Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.
Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?
We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.
A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.
This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.
There are funds all over the world looking for a decent return . Why is NI lagging behind Scotland and the RoI? is it because of the history? Is there anything that can be fixed? Is there any reason the people can't be more productive before integrated education kicks in?
And we are back to word salad. Of course there are funds looking for a return. But you earlier that NI would be attractive to them and this was part of the solubility of our economic woes? I was expecting something to back that up. Not more word salad.
I am not linking productivity to integrated education. I am linking a sustained period of integration to a more normalised society. A more integrated society is less expensive to run or more specifically more of the money that is invested by government can go to stimulating an economy rather than funding us and them divisions.
Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason
Quote from: seafoid on May 02, 2022, 05:38:37 PM
Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason
Lazy Cnuts?
Quote from: seafoid on May 02, 2022, 05:38:37 PM
Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason
Didn't the UK gov make the leader of DUP, Sir Jeffrey, the trade envoy to Cameroon, one of the world's poorest countries. He was out there trying to sell bags of Tayto. A comedian could not script that stuff.
Quote from: seafoid on May 02, 2022, 05:38:37 PM
Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason
What a weird way of operating you have. You make these confident statements and when asked any questions on it you just ask a load of different questions.
Anyway that is something that must think is a good idea.
NI investment is historically low for what should be a bleeding obvious reason. As this is a question of what a UI might look at the investment that would be needed first is to replace the GB subvention.
Fixing education might be a long term project but that means starting now. Anybody working towards a UI needs to sell it to the RoI electorate and therefore needs to significantly reduce sectarianism. If nationalism has any aspiration to achieve it's stated objective then it needs to start now. That's what it can focus on in medium term.
As for your economic stats please tell me that you are not including economic activity that takes place outside ROI but is reported inside RoI for tax purposes? Equally please tell me you are not excluding economic activity that takes place in NI but is reported in UK by a GB business? Your numbers would be pretty meaningless if either of those were true. That said I'm not saying the NI economy is healthy.
Nobody saying Sectarianism is our only problem. But if you don't solve that one it's pretty difficult to see an ROI electorate voting to take on our problems.
Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 10:40:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 02, 2022, 05:38:37 PM
Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason
What a weird way of operating you have. You make these confident statements and when asked any questions on it you just ask a load of different questions.
Anyway that is something that must think is a good idea.
NI investment is historically low for what should be a bleeding obvious reason. As this is a question of what a UI might look at the investment that would be needed first is to replace the GB subvention.
Fixing education might be a long term project but that means starting now. Anybody working towards a UI needs to sell it to the RoI electorate and therefore needs to significantly reduce sectarianism. If nationalism has any aspiration to achieve it's stated objective then it needs to start now. That's what it can focus on in medium term.
As for your economic stats please tell me that you are not including economic activity that takes place outside ROI but is reported inside RoI for tax purposes? Equally please tell me you are not excluding economic activity that takes place in NI but is reported in UK by a GB business? Your numbers would be pretty meaningless if either of those were true. That said I'm not saying the NI economy is healthy.
Nobody saying Sectarianism is our only problem. But if you don't solve that one it's pretty difficult to see an ROI electorate voting to take on our problems.
Has the UI case been fully explored? I think that the difference between the Union and EU membership needs to be fleshed out.
NI only has a small office in Brussels. Its access to decision makers is limited.
Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 04:09:13 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 02, 2022, 11:38:54 AM
Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.
Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.
Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.
A slither?
Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?
Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.
My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.
Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on
Yes a slither and if people think that integrated education is somehow going to transform NI society they're living in cloud cuckoo land.
The Boys Model and DeLa Salle could declare themselves "integrated" in the morning, but do you know what, 95+% of those kids will still come from the same estates with ingrained sectarianism and little or no social mobility so are stuck in their sectarian rut.
Integrated Education has it's part to play, but it's not going to have the big impact that people think.
give those kids a fair crack of the whip, help them out of this mess and then sectarianism or certainly militant sectarianism is less of an issue, but just to be clear there are plenty of suited and booted bigots out there as well.
This is the challenge
https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.
Quote from: johnnycool on May 03, 2022, 08:42:19 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 02, 2022, 04:09:13 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 02, 2022, 11:38:54 AM
Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.
Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.
Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.
A slither?
Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?
Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.
My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.
Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on
Yes a slither and if people think that integrated education is somehow going to transform NI society they're living in cloud cuckoo land.
The Boys Model and DeLa Salle could declare themselves "integrated" in the morning, but do you know what, 95+% of those kids will still come from the same estates with ingrained sectarianism and little or no social mobility so are stuck in their sectarian rut.
Integrated Education has it's part to play, but it's not going to have the big impact that people think.
give those kids a fair crack of the whip, help them out of this mess and then sectarianism or certainly militant sectarianism is less of an issue, but just to be clear there are plenty of suited and booted bigots out there as well.
I think you are looking through the wrong end of the lens. Did anyone say integrated education would transform NI?
Surely the question can NI be readily transformed without integrated education?
We can try to fix this place with one hand tied behind our back or we can tackle this fairly major impediment
Quote from: seafoid on May 03, 2022, 09:54:17 AM
This is the challenge
https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.
When you say "this" you mean what exactly?
Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?
Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.
Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.
Quote from: smelmoth on May 03, 2022, 02:22:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 03, 2022, 09:54:17 AM
This is the challenge
https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.
When you say "this" you mean what exactly?
Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?
Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.
Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.
If NI could more or less pay for itself it might be an attractive bride or McBride.
The ESRI should study the differences between the Irish and UK models to see where NI could upskill.
Another study on what factors crimp the lives of people in NI would be necessary.
The IDA could probably do some training and pass on a few leads.
There would probably be a transition period as well.
Maybe it it's not impossible.
Quote from: seafoid on May 03, 2022, 02:33:15 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 03, 2022, 02:22:33 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 03, 2022, 09:54:17 AM
This is the challenge
https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.
When you say "this" you mean what exactly?
Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?
Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.
Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.
If NI could more or less pay for itself it might be an attractive bride or McBride.
The ESRI should study the differences between the Irish and UK models to see where NI could upskill.
Another study on what factors crimp the lives of people in NI would be necessary.
The IDA could probably do some training and pass on a few leads.
There would probably be a transition period as well.
Maybe it it's not impossible.
Form "soluble" to "maybe not impossible" via word salad.
I'm not saying you are the spokesperson for Irish nationalism but your contributions to this discussion shine some light on the problems Irish nationalism (have yet to) face and the difficulty in providing concrete answers.
Certainly in NI there is a strain of nationalism that thinks that if they just sit tight then birth rates in the north (allied to some "positive" trends in relative migration) will just deliver a UI. The idea of having to actually persuade the citizenry of either jurisdiction is novel.
If you want a UI my recommendation would be to accept that it's a long term project but you have to start address the impediments now. A failure to address those impediments now just prolongs the timescale of the already long term.
20 or 30 years from now I can see a situation where the census data offers nationalism hope but they are failing to realise the assumed benefits in either jurisdictions because our economy won't have moved on sufficiently, society will still have deep sectarian divisions and the RoI voter is afraid to take on what is or could be a powder keg. Nationalist leaders might then look back and realise what they should have been doing in the intervening period
A UI is a once in a generation attempt. It has to work.
Quebec had its last independence vote in 1995.
Seems Quebec has gone off the idea of Independence.
Quote from: seafoid on May 03, 2022, 05:48:26 PM
A UI is a once in a generation attempt. It has to work.
Quebec had its last independence vote in 1995.
More scattergun nonsense.
Do you ever meaningfully engage in a discussion?
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2022/0518/1299806-border-poll-neale-richmond/
Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.
The electoral register was increased as people had to be on it to claim the Covid voucher. But what were the requirements for this, what citizenship was required? There are several percent of the population of resident foreigners, many of them Eastern Europeans, and these might not get out and vote in an Assembly election (although I believe they can vote) but might be keen on a UI in the EU.
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 18, 2022, 10:04:19 PM
Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.
Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.
The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.
The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.
Quote from: Dougal Maguire on May 19, 2022, 12:19:42 AM
The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.
The oldest age groups are two thirds Protestant. Then when you are into people of working age it is much more balanced and younger people are slightly more likely to be nationalist. The point is that there is another 15-20 years when that very Protestant older cohort leave this earth and are replaced on the electoral register by a cohort with 20% more Taigs (or people with Taig tendencies anyway).
Quote from: Dougal Maguire on May 19, 2022, 12:19:42 AM
The other interesting thing is the age profile of the nationalist and unionist population. I understand that the Under 25 years of age profile has a higher percentage of nationalists whereas the Over 65 has a higher percentage of unionists which would suggest that from a unionist perspective the future looks bleak. However this statement comes with a health warning in that I don't remember any of the stats.
The older generation had jobs.
The 20-65 age group has high graduate emigration.
Protestant graduate emigration did more damage to Unionism than the IRA.
I think the DUP's demographic is a bit older. You would hope they would tail off but they're doing plenty of fearmongering so you would never know.
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 08:18:04 AM
I think the DUP's demographic is a bit older. You would hope they would tail off but they're doing plenty of fearmongering so you would never know.
The DUP are a bit like Fox News in that regard . Old farts to scare the shit out of.
Quote from: marty34 on May 19, 2022, 12:17:39 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 18, 2022, 10:04:19 PM
Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.
Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.
The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.
I am wondering though will Alliance have to commit? Could they just take the stance of agreeing to support the outcome either way based on the will of the people, and sit on the fence?
I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.
Alliance say they have nationalists and unionists in their ranks so will hardly come down on either side. Obvious thing to do is to say let the people decide and we'll accept the outcome.
Only people here saying the "have to" commit seem to have strong SF leanings.
They may be able to sit back in a referendum and say let the people make the call. But before that when the decision on a referendum is being discussed they will have to pick a side. If evidence shows there may be support for a UI referendum and SF and the SDLP are pushing the SoS for one then they will have to take a side. If they join SF/SDLP in asking for the referendum then they will be seen to be inherently nationalist. If they don't campaign for it when it shows clear support then they will be viewed as being inherently unionist. At that point they will suffer losses from one side or the other imo.
Quote from: trueblue1234 on May 19, 2022, 10:12:30 AM
They may be able to sit back in a referendum and say let the people make the call. But before that when the decision on a referendum is being discussed they will have to pick a side. If evidence shows there may be support for a UI referendum and SF and the SDLP are pushing the SoS for one then they will have to take a side. If they join SF/SDLP in asking for the referendum then they will be seen to be inherently nationalist. If they don't campaign for it when it shows clear support then they will be viewed as being inherently unionist. At that point they will suffer losses from one side or the other imo.
I actually think that the game has changed substantially since the election and many middle road will see the impasse and the lack of care in Johnsons Government and will have decided to support for a single island state when the chance comes.
Being honest the antics since would make me vote differently and I am sure I am far from alone on that.
We're you going to vote NO ?
I had high hopes for Edwin but he let me down ;D
Quote from: JohnDenver on May 19, 2022, 09:53:52 AM
Quote from: marty34 on May 19, 2022, 12:17:39 AM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 18, 2022, 10:04:19 PM
Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.
Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.
The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.
I am wondering though will Alliance have to commit? Could they just take the stance of agreeing to support the outcome either way based on the will of the people, and sit on the fence?
The Alliance model assumes continuity for NI. This may or may not be the case in future.
Work with a number of middle of the road unionists.
The feeling among them was that they would not consider voting for a UI.
Even after bojo and the lads shafting them a number of times and showing he gives not one shite about them they still want to maintain the status quo.
Anyone that thinks unionists will change their thought process in the next 5/10 years is deluded from my experience.
Cost of living etc wont change their thinking - sure isnt the rest of the UK having a cost of living crisis as well :o
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 09:56:29 AM
I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.
What do they do/say during a ref?
Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?
So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?
Just sit quiet in the corner?
Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.
Quote from: Taylor on May 19, 2022, 11:55:23 AM
Work with a number of middle of the road unionists.
The feeling among them was that they would not consider voting for a UI.
Even after bojo and the lads shafting them a number of times and showing he gives not one shite about them they still want to maintain the status quo.
Anyone that thinks unionists will change their thought process in the next 5/10 years is deluded from my experience.
Cost of living etc wont change their thinking - sure isnt the rest of the UK having a cost of living crisis as well :o
Because they're being fed the lie that they've a better health service, education, welfare system in the North than they would have in the south and that needs challenged.
Things will get a lot worse for business if the NI protocol goes or is diluted so much that paperwork is needed to move stuff from Fermanagh to Leitrim.
Quote from: marty34 on May 19, 2022, 11:57:43 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 09:56:29 AM
I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.
What do they do/say during a ref?
LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE
Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.
NOT NECESSARILY.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTEMn86WYAA58n3?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
The census might reveal more whenever they get round to releasing that information..
Quote from: marty34 on May 19, 2022, 11:57:43 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 09:56:29 AM
I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.
What do they do/say during a ref?
Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?
So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?
Just sit quiet in the corner?
Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.
Do all the people in the party even align on it? All that needs to be said is let the people decide. Pushing for a border poll doesn't mean pushing for a united ireland either. You can push it with the objective of getting a clear answer one way or the other.
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 12:22:06 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 19, 2022, 11:57:43 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 19, 2022, 09:56:29 AM
I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.
What do they do/say during a ref?
Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?
So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?
Just sit quiet in the corner?
Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.
Do all the people in the party even align on it? All that needs to be said is let the people decide. Pushing for a border poll doesn't mean pushing for a united ireland either. You can push it with the objective of getting a clear answer one way or the other.
IMO if they are seen to be pushing a border poll even if supported by evidence that one should be held, then they will lose the Majority of their unionist vote.
I think they won't campaign for one until it's absolutely undeniable, but then they will lose the unionist vote. Understandably so I might add. Or if it gets to that stage and they refuse to campaign for one, in spite of the evidence then they'll certainly lose a lot of nation its voters. Again understandably so.
At that stage I think action or inaction decides their direction.
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either
Quote from: tintin25 on May 19, 2022, 12:45:38 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either
Yeah that too, I'd like to think that when actually faced with the chance to have it that they would do it and say 'f**k it' and I'm talking about the nationalist that is on the fence..
If though that there are clear pathways and a period of adopting and sorting out pensions and jobs within the public sector and so on (of which in the north is very top heavy) then it might persuade the vast majority of Nationalist..
There is absolutely no evidence to suggest any unionist/loyalist/prod to vote for a UI
I'd say we are way down on expectations even further away that what was expected in Scotland with an even higher loss
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.
Positive arguments or not I dont know any unionists that would go for it.
You can try to sell it all you want but its in their blood and they dont want to be part of a UI.
I have found it impossible to even get them to see an alternative - and I would certainly class these people a middle of the road unionists.
I can only imagine whats its like around the Shankhill etc
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 19, 2022, 12:56:18 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.
I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..
While I'd love to see it, I'm 50, I really can't see it in my lifetime
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 01:02:51 PM
I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..
The problem is not these things, in general the ROI allows people bleed it at a substantially higher rate than in NI, with the possible exception of the car end of things which isn't a big feature in the south as far as I know (but I could be corrected).
The problem is who is going to pay for it.
Yeah I am a bit younger but would say the same. The difference though is that brexit and the protocol has actually got people realistically talking about it. The dup have expedited it significantly. (Still I don't see it in my lifetime but I would say a few generations as opposed to very long term now)
Quote from: johnnycool on May 19, 2022, 12:14:59 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FTEMn86WYAA58n3?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
The census might reveal more whenever they get round to releasing that information..
Releasing it in late autumn JC....for it's the quiet time of the year!!!!
Other bits and pieces i.e. population and gender etc. will be announced in the next few months.
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 19, 2022, 12:56:18 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.
Yeah our devolved govt has precipitated a worse version of it than rest of UK(yuk clean your mouth out). Makes you worry about our ability to govern and manage anything
Quote from: armaghniac on May 19, 2022, 01:14:15 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 01:02:51 PM
I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..
The problem is not these things, in general the ROI allows people bleed it at a substantially higher rate than in NI, with the possible exception of the car end of things which isn't a big feature in the south as far as I know (but I could be corrected).
The problem is who is going to pay for it.
People are funny creatures, you could tell them that and someone could tell them something different and rather than give themselves a headache they'll stick with the status quo..
This won't be a green and orange head count at all to get it over the line, this will come down to how will 'I' benefit from this, that's where its got to be sold.. And SF for all their movement in the right direction and political clout can't be seen to be the driver of this bus, otherwise they'll be driving it into a low level bridge
Quote from: tintin25 on May 19, 2022, 12:45:38 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 19, 2022, 12:42:23 PM
I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI
I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either
I agree.
Look how many people use the term 'northern ireland' on here.
Normalisation I think the word is after 100 years of partition.
Obviously, there's a great debate to be had on what a re-united Ireland is. So this is phase one in the debate. Well before a border poll.
Loads of inputs from various pitical parties and organisations etc.
In saying that, the majority of unionists will not be interested. You can see this playing out in the protocol or peace statements currently. It doesn't matter if business' can grow and develop now.
They just want to eat a flag.
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on May 19, 2022, 04:21:34 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
If you live in strangford with little or no chance of getting a nationalist MLA elected you'd vote Alliance or at least give them your transfer.
Same as East Belfast and a few other places like north Down etc etc.
Doesn't mean you won't vote for a UI when the time comes.
Hence my interest in where Alliance are getting their votes from and who was getting their transfers as that will tell a tale
Quote from: johnnycool on May 19, 2022, 04:47:17 PM
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on May 19, 2022, 04:21:34 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
If you live in strangford with little or no chance of getting a nationalist MLA elected you'd vote Alliance or at least give them your transfer.
Same as East Belfast and a few other places like north Down etc etc.
Doesn't mean you won't vote for a UI when the time comes.
Hence my interest in where Alliance are getting their votes from and who was getting their transfers as that will tell a tale
Is there not a nationalist seat in Strangford JC?
When you add SF and SDLP together and take a few 1000 who, as you say, vote Alliance, there's definately a seem. Also add in nationalists who see no reason to vote.
Same LV. Definately a nationalist seat there. EA is also the same. Not sure about other areas in the north.
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on May 19, 2022, 04:21:34 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
If this is true as you suggest (and I don't believe it is) then there is currently no justification for calling a border poll anytime soon.
Quote from: Taylor on May 19, 2022, 01:00:42 PM
Positive arguments or not I dont know any unionists that would go for it.
You can try to sell it all you want but its in their blood and they dont want to be part of a UI.
I have found it impossible to even get them to see an alternative - and I would certainly class these people a middle of the road unionists.
I can only imagine whats its like around the Shankhill etc
Unionists won't go for it, but unionists are 40% of the population, you need to work on the other 60%. In reality, 10-15% of people who vote unionist will look at the case also.
Quote from: yellowcard on May 19, 2022, 05:14:23 PM
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on May 19, 2022, 04:21:34 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
If this is true as you suggest (and I don't believe it is) then there is currently no justification for calling a border poll anytime soon.
I honestly don't think there is any point calling one. Build up to one yes but no point in calling one.
The only one who can call it is the Brit SoS.
He/she HAS to if it appears that there might be a majority in favour of re unification .
Will "appears" be -
Nationalist parties get more votes than Unionist ones
Nationalist parties get 50%+1 of the Vote
The Brits just want to get rid of the place
Quote from: Mikhail Prokhorov on May 19, 2022, 04:21:34 PM
Quote from: Snapchap on May 19, 2022, 04:13:37 PM
At the risk of repeating myself:
Quote from: Snapchap on May 04, 2022, 10:19:08 AM
A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.
EDIT
She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897)
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074 (https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074)
Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo
they always have been ::)
not a chance do they promote a UI
an independent north maybe ;)
Any Alliance MLAs west of the Bann?
I consider it a curse to be born in Northern Ireland, particularly as a Catholic. As far as I am concerned the plantations changed Ulster forever, even if there is a unified Ireland that doesn't stop us having British loyalism as a big part of the areas culture. I used to get involved in online arguments about Northern Ireland but I stopped a few years ago for the sake of my mental health. The whole thing just enrages me, at this point I just have taken a step back and let the country unravel in its degeneracy.
In terms of elections, I haven't voted since 2017 or so. I can't vote Sinn Fein as I don't support their far left agenda, I will probably get banned if I explain that further so I won't.
First things first before we can even dream of a UI or winning a UI vote serious work must be put in place to prepare the package of what a UI entails for pensions, health service, civil service workers etc. USA and Europe must be sounded out also with regards to what support they will give to ensure a smooth change over, and what incentives they can give to ensure extra and better employment etc. All this must be put together first and then that package must be used to sell a UI. In my opinion we will need 5% of Protestants (can't call them unionist's as if they were unionists they won't vote UI) to vote UI to get it over the line to allow for the small percentage of 'soft catholics' that won't give their vote.
I always thought that SF / SDLP we're missing out badly in not chasing the foreign workers vote here, surely there is 30/40,000 non nationals who are eligible to vote also (I may be wrong on this), getting these onside would make a massive difference and would almost certainly ensure victory. In my opinion the poll will take place in about 10 years time and if all work has been done before that then a UI is a very high possibility, it will take a further 6/7 years after that for the actual switchover, so we shouldn't be far away come 2040. Remember also that both Irish and UK economies and moving fairly quickly in opposite directions, brexit is really starting to bite in UK and the effects are only just starting, UK will be in poor shape in 5 years time and Irelands economy will keep improving (inevitable given the highly skilled workforce that exists down south). I may be dreaming a bit but I really believe I will live to see a UI
Quote from: PMG1 on May 19, 2022, 11:30:30 PM
I always thought that SF / SDLP we're missing out badly in not chasing the foreign workers vote here, surely there is 30/40,000 non nationals who are eligible to vote also (I may be wrong on this), getting these onside would make a massive difference and would almost certainly ensure victory.
A demographic who mostly either originate from Communist Bloc states, banana republics or African autocracy's. In my experience they've an aversion to politics and government authority that is more than understandable given the cnuts they're used to seeing in charge. Very few I've ever met could give a rat's arse about politics much less the constitutional position of Northern Ireland. Because of the basket case governments they and their parents have fled from it's very difficult to get them to engage with anything even remotely government related. Which is perhaps best exemplified with the evidence that non-nationals are the demographic most likely to distrust the safety of Covid vaccines.
https://www.ft.com/content/a55218e0-965a-4a38-b210-6df4e94ba7ac
Policy-wise, the prime minister has committed the British government to legislating new provisions on the Irish language, and on abortion access in Northern Ireland. Equally importantly, the government will bring forward new proposals on how to tackle prosecution over historic offences. Here's the crucial paragraph: "These are different from those in our Command Paper last year. We have listened to many people in recent months and reflected on what we heard. Dealing with the past will still require difficult decisions but there will be no blanket amnesty. Immunity will only be available to those who co-operate and prosecutions could follow for those who do not."
My class mate in St Colman's College Newry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955
Quote from: Orior on September 16, 2022, 07:26:57 PM
My class mate in St Colman's College Newry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955
Terrible. Go ndéanfaidh Dia trócaire air
Quote from: Orior on September 16, 2022, 07:26:57 PM
My class mate in St Colman's College Newry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955
Brutal. And to have to wait 30 years.
That's disgusting :( Poor guy and poor family.
Those few bad apples we keep hearing about must have been very busy ffs
Quote from: Orior on September 16, 2022, 07:26:57 PM
My class mate in St Colman's College Newry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-62927955
The family put through an awful time. His grave was desecrated as well by loyalists.
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on September 17, 2022, 11:34:33 AM
Those few bad apples we keep hearing about must have been very busy ffs
Purveyors of the "bad apples" analogy seem to forget the point of it. A few bad apples can cause the whole barrel to rot.
Unsure if this is the right thread, or the census one, or the Queen one, or the United Ireland discussion one...but I see if the DUP don't agree to getting the institutions up and running by October 28th there'll be another election before Christmas. Is this true? And if it is then what if there's no change in the seat numbers? What if the protocol still hasn't gone their way?
(It's probably being discussed on the other threads btw. ;D)
They'll drag it on and on and find ways out of calling an election, SF will pick up a few more seats and probably so will the DUP but the outcome will be very little difference to the last results.
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 24, 2022, 12:51:48 PM
Unsure if this is the right thread, or the census one, or the Queen one, or the United Ireland discussion one...but I see if the DUP don't agree to getting the institutions up and running by October 28th there'll be another election before Christmas. Is this true? And if it is then what if there's no change in the seat numbers? What if the protocol still hasn't gone their way?
(It's probably being discussed on the other threads btw. ;D)
It's up to the SOS. The only reason he will call one is if he thinks DUP might pick up a few extra seats and pip SF, putting off the evil day when nationalists are First Minister. There is literally no other reason to call one. He has the power to extend the current status quo and give the Protocol talks a chance.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/british-shadow-ni-secretary-would-call-border-poll-if-circumstances-right-42015398.html
Quote from: Rossfan on September 25, 2022, 01:30:59 PM
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/british-shadow-ni-secretary-would-call-border-poll-if-circumstances-right-42015398.html
How long is a piece of string ?
Would be a big mistake to let the Brits define the terms of when a border poll can be called, because they will be sure to set a high bar. Even demanding that Nationalist parties secure more than 50% of votes in Assembly election is an impossibility with the growing share of the non-aligned parties. Once nationalist parties start outpolling Unionist or a UI trend in opinion polls asking how you would vote in 5-10 years should be enough to start setting and preparing for that date.
Quote from: weareros on September 25, 2022, 04:10:12 PM
Would be a big mistake to let the Brits define the terms of when a border poll can be called, because they will be sure to set a high bar. Even demanding that Nationalist parties secure more than 50% of votes in Assembly election is an impossibility with the growing share of the non-aligned parties. Once nationalist parties start outpolling Unionist or a UI trend in opinion polls asking how you would vote in 5-10 years should be enough to start setting and preparing for that date.
Completely agree. I know dec asked me earlier in the census thread about a stat I got. It was not part of the census but it was a education board stat of new school enrolments in September. 50% catholic, 31% Protestant, 19 % other. That's 50% of potential new voters by 2035 being catholic. Given the demographic changes the whole change in population will exponentially change over the next 10 years and the next census will be a lot different from now with it only going 1 way. If SF sustain their position both sides of the border in the next general elections and build on the local and Stormont elections then the inevitable will happen. Pray for a Labour win at the next GE and let's get the ball rolling.
This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final.
So it will need a Citizens Assembly
Quote from: seafoid on September 25, 2022, 04:56:04 PM
This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final.
So it will need a Citizens Assembly
Birth registrations 2014-2017 coupled against deaths over the next decades will show where the demographic will end up
Quote from: brokencrossbar1 on September 25, 2022, 05:01:41 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 25, 2022, 04:56:04 PM
This can't fail if it does go ahead. Same as the 2002 final.
So it will need a Citizens Assembly
Birth registrations 2014-2017 coupled against deaths over the next decades will show where the demographic will end up
Sure. But if it isn't planned it'll end up like Mayo on all Ireland final day.
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
More nationalist than unionist MLA's should be the criteria, anything else will be nothing more than stalling tactics.
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Does the GFA say if it appears there is/likely to be/might be?.... a majority in favour of UI the SOS shall...
Who or how will we stop either Government deciding the criteria?
Parallel Unionist and Nationalist consent is a nonsense. Unless of course Nationalists can say we don't consent to being in the UK and so North has to leave UK and presumably become some kind of Independent territory.
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Ah, but what are the benefits?
It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.
I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?
One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?
I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?
For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.
dup would probably want the referndum under a labour government so they can say look the commies and leftys hate the union
Quote from: Hound on September 25, 2022, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Ah, but what are the benefits?
It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.
I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?
One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?
Given that any united Ireland would be a member of the EU, I would think there'd be EU funds to help. There would almost certainly be US funds too, given their centrality to the GFA.
That could then allow for using some of those funds to help pay staff who would (as in you rFAI/IFA example) be more than was strictly needed. Or to train those staff for other employment (while retaining their current pay).
One model here would be the East/West German unification. Short-to-medium term pain, with funds to help alleviate this, leading to long term gain.
Of course the Germans didn't have to deal with the DUP, and their fanbase, so there's that.
The NI economy with its large post conflict public sector and low productivity is weaker than the Southern economy. There would be benefits in bringing the North up to speed but it would have to be carefully planned. The danger is that all the decisions are made by southerners. A cohort of leaders from the North would have to be trained.
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 03:14:31 AM
The NI economy with its large post conflict public sector and low productivity is weaker than the Southern economy. There would be benefits in bringing the North up to speed but it would have to be carefully planned. The danger is that all the decisions are made by southerners. A cohort of leaders from the North would have to be trained.
;D As long as they don't have the Haughey and Bertie training that was given out
What happens to the football if a ui is achieved?
Will the lads from the shankill stand alongside lads from the Falls under a flag of green? Or will The gawa end up following a now defunct Norn Iron in non-fifa affiliated tournaments against the likes of Yorkshire , northern Cyprus and the Vatican City?
The North would likely still have a separate international soccer team.
The "United Kingdom" has 4 international teams.
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 26, 2022, 09:52:33 AM
What happens to the football if a ui is achieved?
Will the lads from the shankill stand alongside lads from the Falls under a flag of green? Or will The gawa end up following a now defunct Norn Iron in non-fifa affiliated tournaments against the likes of Yorkshire , northern Cyprus and the Vatican City?
Rugby, hockey, cricket, golf , GAA and boxing all survived partition. Soccer should be able to cop on
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 11:05:12 AM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 26, 2022, 09:52:33 AM
What happens to the football if a ui is achieved?
Will the lads from the shankill stand alongside lads from the Falls under a flag of green? Or will The gawa end up following a now defunct Norn Iron in non-fifa affiliated tournaments against the likes of Yorkshire , northern Cyprus and the Vatican City?
Rugby, hockey, cricket, golf , GAA and boxing all survived partition. Soccer should be able to cop on
They had valid reasons at time, but it was the FAI who split from the IFA. Both associations continued to represent the full island up until the 1950s with some players representing both until FIFA stepped in. I imagine in an eventual UI, that would be one of the concessions with IFA the ruling body from Belfast and a new national stadium, and rotation of games in Belfast and Dublin. Both associations are fairly pathetic so there'd be no tears for either.
Quote from: weareros on September 26, 2022, 11:36:00 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 11:05:12 AM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 26, 2022, 09:52:33 AM
What happens to the football if a ui is achieved?
Will the lads from the shankill stand alongside lads from the Falls under a flag of green? Or will The gawa end up following a now defunct Norn Iron in non-fifa affiliated tournaments against the likes of Yorkshire , northern Cyprus and the Vatican City?
Rugby, hockey, cricket, golf , GAA and boxing all survived partition. Soccer should be able to cop on
They had valid reasons at time, but it was the FAI who split from the IFA. Both associations continued to represent the full island up until the 1950s with some players representing both until FIFA stepped in. I imagine in an eventual UI, that would be one of the concessions with IFA the ruling body from Belfast and a new national stadium, and rotation of games in Belfast and Dublin. Both associations are fairly pathetic so there'd be no tears for either.
Seems fair to me. Plus the IFA have a permanent seat on some rules makes board or other I believe. Win win.
Quote from: weareros on September 26, 2022, 11:36:00 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 11:05:12 AM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 26, 2022, 09:52:33 AM
What happens to the football if a ui is achieved?
Will the lads from the shankill stand alongside lads from the Falls under a flag of green? Or will The gawa end up following a now defunct Norn Iron in non-fifa affiliated tournaments against the likes of Yorkshire , northern Cyprus and the Vatican City?
Rugby, hockey, cricket, golf , GAA and boxing all survived partition. Soccer should be able to cop on
They had valid reasons at time, but it was the FAI who split from the IFA. Both associations continued to represent the full island up until the 1950s with some players representing both until FIFA stepped in. I imagine in an eventual UI, that would be one of the concessions with IFA the ruling body from Belfast and a new national stadium, and rotation of games in Belfast and Dublin. Both associations are fairly pathetic so there'd be no tears for either.
At the time of partition all of the clubs in the top Irish division were in the North because that is where the money was.
Quote from: Rossfan on September 26, 2022, 10:42:39 AM
The North would likely still have a separate international soccer team.
The "United Kingdom" has 4 international teams.
No way this is going to happen. The UK having 4 teams is an accident of history, they are not going to allow the smallest of them continue if it is not in the UK.
When did you get the gift if prophecy maniac?
a united ireland league would be good an an all ireland soccer cup maybe they can keep the northern ireland cup (irish cup) maybe make it the ulster cup i think if we get a united ireland national team they may have to be an agreement to play some games at windsor.
Would Irelands call be played before the match?
Maybe have Snow Patrol and/or The Saw Doctors come up with something new?
Quote from: Hound on September 25, 2022, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Ah, but what are the benefits?
Sorry for the quote,
The 'shared island' offers considerable economies of both scale and scope, which if harnessed dynamically would outweigh the overblown static costs of subventions," says Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy.
It's basic economics and you rightly pointed out some potential benefits below.
It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.
I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?
Yep almost 200,000 employed in ps. We definitely need a more dynamic private sector, but I guess free from Westminister control new measures could be out in place such as lowering corporation tax, encouraging industriy specialisation by FDI or European Union grants.
I suppose to me Dublin is at the centre of everything in Ireland. Cork, Galway, Limerick haven't provided any meaningful counter balance to this. Why not Belfast? This will hopefully be partly demonstrated when the protocol is finally agreed upon( and it most definable be,when Truss stops the silly games).
One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?
Listen the fruits of Brexit will be felt soon enough in NI. Expect huge cuts in public sector spending in the next number of years. That goes for jobs, health care and free prescriptions.
I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?
Who says it will still be the leaving cert? Will have to be agreed. Personally I like the German/Dutch model
For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.
That's the thing nothing has even been discussed yet? We have no idea what the model will be of Unification. Actually really exciting the changes that could be introduced
Quote from: sensethetone on September 26, 2022, 01:52:43 PM
Would Irelands call be played before the match?
Maybe have Snow Patrol and/or The Saw Doctors come up with something new?
Maybe 'To win just once'
Quote from: grounded on September 26, 2022, 02:03:10 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 25, 2022, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Ah, but what are the benefits?
Sorry for the quote,
The 'shared island' offers considerable economies of both scale and scope, which if harnessed dynamically would outweigh the overblown static costs of subventions," says Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy.
It's basic economics and you rightly pointed out some potential benefits below.
It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.
I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?
Yep almost 200,000 employed in ps. We definitely need a more dynamic private sector, but I guess free from Westminister control new measures could be out in place such as lowering corporation tax, encouraging industriy specialisation by FDI or European Union grants.
I suppose to me Dublin is at the centre of everything in Ireland. Cork, Galway, Limerick haven't provided any meaningful counter balance to this. Why not Belfast? This will hopefully be partly demonstrated when the protocol is finally agreed upon( and it most definable be,when Truss stops the silly games).
One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?
Listen the fruits of Brexit will be felt soon enough in NI. Expect huge cuts in public sector spending in the next number of years. That goes for jobs, health care and free prescriptions.
I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?
Who says it will still be the leaving cert? Will have to be agreed. Personally I like the German/Dutch model
For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.
That's the thing nothing has even been discussed yet? We have no idea what the model will be of Unification. Actually really exciting the changes that could be introduced
If you offered the vast majority of Unionists £10k each they still won't vote for a UI. This isn't an economic argument for them. It's identity. The same way no Irishman would vote to become part of the UK. It's simply not going to happen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwellian_conquest_of_Ireland#The_Cromwellian_Settlement
In 1641–42 Irish insurgents in Ulster killed some 4,000 Protestant settlers who had settled on land confiscated from their former Catholic owners. These events were magnified in Protestant propaganda as an attempt by Irish Catholics to exterminate the English Protestant settlers in Ireland, with English Parliamentarian pamphlets claiming that over 200,000 Protestants had died. In turn, this was used as justification by English Parliamentary and Scottish Covenant forces to take vengeance on the Irish Catholic population. A Parliamentary tract of 1655 argued that, "the whole Irish nation, consisting of gentry, clergy and commonality are engaged as one nation in this quarrel, to root out and extirpate all English Protestants from amongst them".[39]
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 02:27:46 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cromwellian_conquest_of_Ireland#The_Cromwellian_Settlement
In 1641–42 Irish insurgents in Ulster killed some 4,000 Protestant settlers who had settled on land confiscated from their former Catholic owners. These events were magnified in Protestant propaganda as an attempt by Irish Catholics to exterminate the English Protestant settlers in Ireland, with English Parliamentarian pamphlets claiming that over 200,000 Protestants had died. In turn, this was used as justification by English Parliamentary and Scottish Covenant forces to take vengeance on the Irish Catholic population. A Parliamentary tract of 1655 argued that, "the whole Irish nation, consisting of gentry, clergy and commonality are engaged as one nation in this quarrel, to root out and extirpate all English Protestants from amongst them".[39]
Helpful
Quote from: trailer on September 26, 2022, 02:20:15 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 26, 2022, 02:03:10 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 25, 2022, 09:10:51 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 25, 2022, 08:35:02 PM
The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI, no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).
That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
Thems not the rules in the GFA.
Ah, but what are the benefits?
Sorry for the quote,
The 'shared island' offers considerable economies of both scale and scope, which if harnessed dynamically would outweigh the overblown static costs of subventions," says Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy.
It's basic economics and you rightly pointed out some potential benefits below.
It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.
I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?
Yep almost 200,000 employed in ps. We definitely need a more dynamic private sector, but I guess free from Westminister control new measures could be out in place such as lowering corporation tax, encouraging industriy specialisation by FDI or European Union grants.
I suppose to me Dublin is at the centre of everything in Ireland. Cork, Galway, Limerick haven't provided any meaningful counter balance to this. Why not Belfast? This will hopefully be partly demonstrated when the protocol is finally agreed upon( and it most definable be,when Truss stops the silly games).
One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?
Listen the fruits of Brexit will be felt soon enough in NI. Expect huge cuts in public sector spending in the next number of years. That goes for jobs, health care and free prescriptions.
I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?
Who says it will still be the leaving cert? Will have to be agreed. Personally I like the German/Dutch model
For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.
That's the thing nothing has even been discussed yet? We have no idea what the model will be of Unification. Actually really exciting the changes that could be introduced
If you offered the vast majority of Unionists £10k each they still won't vote for a UI. This isn't an economic argument for them. It's identity. The same way no Irishman would vote to become part of the UK. It's simply not going to happen.
There are plenty of unionists who can be persuaded. Not every unionist is a unionist in the traditional sense, many are simply unionist on the basis of pragmatism. i dare say there are even unionists on this forum who would be culturally Catholic but are happy with the status quo.
The Plantation has always been a problem. Now is no different
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/ex-northern-ireland-secretary-suggests-there-may-be-grounds-soon-to-call-a-referendum-on-irish-re-unification-3856135
In other places with polarisation the answer was to build institutions to bring people together. he GAA and the Scouts are 2 examples . Figuring this out for Unionists will be a challenge in the context of a UI.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx
There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.
At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI. Would there be a Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists. But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever, Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?
Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.
There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.
With the Alliance refusing invite to Ireland Future event, which is their prerogative, it's time for SDLP to realise they've lost a lot of nationalist gene pool votes to that party. Them winning a few percentage points back will be the difference between nationalists outpolling unionists in next election. Hopefully Colum will wise up.
The Newsletter is no help, you have to wonder about their business model since they pander to a shrinking ageing sector of the population and don't do much for the younger middle ground crowd who are growing in number. Perhaps the former still get the paper newspaper. As for Lowry, I am never quite sure if he is laying it on or is a loose cannon. His brother lives in Dublin, he surely knows that life in a UI would not be the end of the world.
Quote from: grounded on September 28, 2022, 10:38:34 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx
There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.
At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI. Would there be a Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists. But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever, Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?
Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.
There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.
Expect an organised 23 year old backlash against the GFA agreement supporters next year. The signatories to be painted as Lundys, an attempt to unite unionism and shed the soft middle under the DUP who refused to go in..
Quote from: grounded on September 28, 2022, 10:38:34 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx
There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.
At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI. Would there be a Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists. But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever, Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?
Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.
There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.
There's a lot of truth in this. I remember Seamus Mallon in the 1990s talking about demographic trends and the long term implications of them. He warned unionists that they needed to "start negotiating now, from a position of strength, before it's too late." I think Trimble heeded the warning.
I see there is a planned discussion on what a new Ireland might look like.
It's hilarious that Allianance and Unionist parties will not attend because they are forever pointing out things that suggest they would be poorly treated in a new Ireland.
Perhaps they should have been deliberately excluded, then they would have something real to complain about.
Alliance has to tread a finer line than the UUP. They have to be seen as neutral on the constitutional question, so they're a bit more careful about which events they go to. Can't be seen to be attending anything that could be interpreted as a nationalist rally.
https://mobile.twitter.com/jon_ni72/status/1574008014692093952
The Irony of it all.
Edwin Poots on Stephen Nolan Live tonight doesn't seem to understand that the Protocol was introduced by the UK government as part of their Brexit withdrawal deal.
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 28, 2022, 09:10:17 PM
Alliance has to tread a finer line than the UUP. They have to be seen as neutral on the constitutional question, so they're a bit more careful about which events they go to. Can't be seen to be attending anything that could be interpreted as a nationalist rally.
Surely if they wanted to be seen as neutral they would attend. By avoiding it they're showing their true Unionist colours.
I've been saying on here for about 2 years i couldn't understand why people were slagging a nationalist for going to Westminster but voting a Unionist who would instead (alliance)..
The oddest type of people. And i don't care what people say but SF tried to reduce SDLP in Derry by encouraging transfers to alliance.
Twitter awash with these anti stoopers. Stupid for Stupids sake
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 29, 2022, 08:31:24 PM
I've been saying on here for about 2 years i couldn't understand why people were slagging a nationalist for going to Westminster but voting a Unionist who would instead (alliance)..
The oddest type of people. And i don't care what people say but SF tried to reduce SDLP in Derry by encouraging transfers to alliance.
Twitter awash with these anti stoopers. Stupid for Stupids sake
Every time they give out about "stoops" going to Westminster I wonder about their opinions on Parnell and O'Connell doing the same.
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 29, 2022, 09:26:26 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 29, 2022, 08:31:24 PM
I've been saying on here for about 2 years i couldn't understand why people were slagging a nationalist for going to Westminster but voting a Unionist who would instead (alliance)..
The oddest type of people. And i don't care what people say but SF tried to reduce SDLP in Derry by encouraging transfers to alliance.
Twitter awash with these anti stoopers. Stupid for Stupids sake
Every time they give out about "stoops" going to Westminster I wonder about their opinions on Parnell and O'Connell doing the same.
They wouldnt know who they are, they'd have to look them up
Parnell and O'Connell didn't achieve very much in Westminster in the end.
Quote from: Rossfan on September 29, 2022, 11:13:25 PM
Parnell and O'Connell didn't achieve very much in Westminster in the end.
Not sure about that.
If the Shinners took their seats maybe they could use their influence to speed things up . The Tories are trína chéile.
https://youtu.be/aopdD9Cu-So
Quote from: rrhf on September 28, 2022, 01:31:24 PM
Quote from: grounded on September 28, 2022, 10:38:34 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx
There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.
At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI. Would there be a Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists. But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever, Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?
Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.
There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.
Expect an organised 23 year old backlash against the GFA agreement supporters next year. The signatories to be painted as Lundys, an attempt to unite unionism and shed the soft middle under the DUP who refused to go in..
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/edwin-poots-executive-not-answer-to-peoples-problems-this-year-1372413.html
Well there you go, It didn't take long.
Pootsy is really stepping it up.
The party who don't support the GFA will withdraw support for the GFA. Ai dead on. They better be careful or a load of their mates will be put back in jail.
Seen this last night, they probably are still smarting after how Charlie treated them after his visit
For the DUP its all about power, they are junkies for it, they say the right thing for their voters and it works
I imagine the fact that there is most likely an election coming up again fuels this too. The hate is always stoked up when that happens.
Sadly I think they will possibly take the largest party again if there's another election. If that happens I imagine Stormont would come back.
The Brits are going to screw them on the protocol - the last few days seem to indicate that. Any negotiation they will spin as a win though.
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 05, 2022, 08:44:59 AM
I imagine the fact that there is most likely an election coming up again fuels this too. The hate is always stoked up when that happens.
Sadly I think they will possibly take the largest party again if there's another election. If that happens I imagine Stormont would come back.
The Brits are going to screw them on the protocol - the last few days seem to indicate that. Any negotiation they will spin as a win though.
For them to win it the UUP will lose seats as will the Long's party, the next election will be completely prod/taig head count
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 05, 2022, 08:44:59 AM
Sadly I think they will possibly take the largest party again if there's another election.
Not a chance. There latest opinion poll (just a few weeks back) showed that while the DUPs support showed a slight increase, so did SF's who are maintaining a 6% lead over them.
For those interested, the only other party to increase support since the election is Alliance (+2), while the UUP support has stayed static and the SDLP have managed to slump back by another 2%.
There will never again be a DUP First Minister. Whether they ever got back into the assembly for that very reason, is a valid question.
I hope you're right. You should be if people have any sense.
It would appear the SDLP are going nowhere :( I think they need to consider a leadership change.
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 05, 2022, 09:23:35 AM
I hope you're right. You should be if people have any sense.
It would appear the SDLP are going nowhere :( I think they need to consider a leadership change.
Going nowhere fast. They've gone through leaders at a rate of knots but I don't think there's anyone that can revive them. What do they offer/stand for? I mentioned in another thread last week how they launched their New Ireland Commission to great fanfare around 18 months ago. Here we are 18 months later and it transpires that the Commission hasn't actually done anything yet. Which is just so typically SDLP. Take their Fianna Fáil link up - also announced to great fanfare, but like their New Ireland Commission, it faded into obscurity they day after the big launch event and did nothing in practice. To paraphrase what one journalist said last week, 'the link-up has ended but most people are wondering if actually began'.
I don't think Eastwood can take them anywhere but whether anyone else can I am not sure. The Fianna Fáil link up was very odd and an absolute disaster. Yes unfortunately like you say going nowhere currently at least.
Quote from: Snapchap on October 05, 2022, 09:42:34 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on October 05, 2022, 09:23:35 AM
I hope you're right. You should be if people have any sense.
It would appear the SDLP are going nowhere :( I think they need to consider a leadership change.
Going nowhere fast. They've gone through leaders at a rate of knots but I don't think there's anyone that can revive them. What do they offer/stand for? I mentioned in another thread last week how they launched their New Ireland Commission to great fanfare around 18 months ago. Here we are 18 months later and it transpires that the Commission hasn't actually done anything yet. Which is just so typically SDLP. Take their Fianna Fáil link up - also announced to great fanfare, but like their New Ireland Commission, it faded into obscurity they day after the big launch event and did nothing in practice. To paraphrase what one journalist said last week, 'the link-up has ended but most people are wondering if actually began'.
Youd rather vote Alliance of course ;)