The next 10 all Irelands

[sid waddell]

Sligo had better players back then.
They've had reasonable under age teams last few years and with good management will work their way back up the rankings again.
I see they're putting a "development squad" or 18/19 years together which will hopefully make them competitive at a decent level again.

The qualifiers started off well but lapsed into the ancien regime as Kerry and Dublin mopped up
most of the Sams going
Giving the hoors a second chance was the weakness.

Either money or lending players to the weaker counties or a combination will bridge the gap.
Nothing else will.

The GAA's natural conservatism means it stuggles to address the problems which beset the organisation.

Kerry's route was more difficult when Cork were one of the top teams from 2008 to 2012.

2008 was the first year back of the Divisions 1-4 League format. It took a few years for the stark inequalities of that format to properly make themselves felt in the game as a whole.

The rug started to be pulled up from around 2011 onwards. Surprise All-Ireland semi-finalists or even finalists were a regularity before that - and they could hope to compete. Not so much since then.

From 2011 onwards, the championship has been the preserve of elite teams only. Five times since 2013 the last four has been Dublin, Kerry, Mayo and Tyrone. Cork and Donegal started off the decade as part of that elite set but steadily fell away to varying degrees as the decade wore on, Cork sunk completely, Donegal are still sort of on the fringes of the elite. Kildare started off the decade on the fringes of the elite, but fell away quickly.

Interlopers to the last four have been rare and they usually get brutally exposed if they do reach that stage.

The question is why all that happened.

[Walter White]

My proposal for what it's worth. Means every game means something as even a simple move for London from bottom of Div 4 to second last would have resulted in a first round tie with Cavan, and not Kerry. A ranking/seeding system that promotes winning the other tournaments, and ends in straight knockout championship for Sam. I used 2020 as we did not run normal leagues in 2021.

Proposed Ranking based on 2020 League and Provincials for 2020 All-Ireland stages

1   Div 1 winner   Kerry
2   Ulster Champ   Cavan (Provincials will rotate in rankings each year)
3   Munster Champ   Tipperaray
4   Connacht Champ   Mayo
5   Leinster Champ   Dublin
6   Div 2 Winner   Roscommon
7   Div 3 Winner   Cork
8   Div 4 Winner   Limerick
9   Ulster 2nd   Donegal
Munster 2nd   Cork rank skipped as duplicate (everyone below moves up)
10   Conn 2nd   Galway
11   Lein 2nd   Meath
Div 1 2nd   Dublin rank skipped as duplicate (everyone below moves up)
12   Div 2 2nd   Armagh
13   Div 3 2nd   Down
14   Div 4 2nd   Wicklow
Rest based on league standings   
15   Tyrone
16   Monaghan
17   Kildare
18   Westmeath
19   Laois
20   Clare
21   Fermanagh
22   Derry
23   Longford
24   Offaly
25   Leitrim
26   Louth
27   Antrim
28   Wexford
29   Carlow
30   Sligo
31   Waterford
32   London

Straight knockout from here based on rankings: (this would leave 5 rounds of straight knockout after Provincials, which was the same number of games played under the super 8's, except all games mean something)

Round 1
1v32 = A   Kerry v London
2v31 = B   Cavan v Waterford
3v30 = C   Tipperary v Sligo
4v29 = D   Mayo v Carlow
5v28 = E   Dublin v Wexford
6v27 = F   Roscommon v Antrim
7v26 = G   Cork v Louth
8v25 = H   Limerick v Leitrim
9v24 = I   Donegal v Offaly
10v23 = J   Galway v Longford
11v22 = K   Meath v Derry
12v21 = L   Armagh v Fermanagh
13v20 = M   Down v Clare
14v19 = N   Wicklow v Laois
15v18 = O   Tyrone v Westmeath
16v17 = P   Monaghan v Kildare

Projected rd 2
A v P   Kerry v Monaghan
B v O   Cavan v Tyrone
C v N   Tipp v Laois
D v M   Mayo v Down
E v L   Dub v Armagh
F v K   Ros v Derry
G v J   Cork v Galway
H v I   Limerick v Donegal

Projected QF

Kerry v Tyrone
Mayo v Tipp
Dub v Ros
Gal v Donegal

Projected SF

Tyrone v Mayo
Dub v Donegal

Projected Final

Tyrone v Dublin

[sid waddell]

2 reasons why Sligo, Fermanagh plus Limerick and Wexford too if memory serves me correctly did well in the early noughties-
They had a decent set of players and the Qualifiers got them free of the Provincial straitjackets.
Sligo subsequently won a Connacht while the other 3 got to Provincial Finals .

What did the Super 8s do for, say, Roscommon? They were fodder.

We got to a knock out Qtr Final in 2017 and were destroyed in a replay.
We weren't near good enough for Dublin, Mayowestros or Tyrone at the cutting edge end of the Championship 2017 to 2019.
We weren't good enough for NFL D1 in 17, 19 and 21.

Roscommon came within a kick of a ball of an All-Ireland semi-final in 2017. They drew with Mayo. On a given day, they almost won - and if memory serves, should have won.

They were smashed in the replay but that's been an age old story for less fancied teams throughout history. You rarely get a second bite at the cherry.

The point is Roscommon could at least go into that All-Ireland quarter-final with genuine hope they could compete - it was on the day, you only need one good performance to pull it off.

And they beat Mayo "on the day" in 2019. And Galway because it was "on the day".

In the 2018 and 2019 Super 8s, Roscommon knew they would have to win two matches against top five teams, and they knew they wouldn't. Psychologically, they were bet before the Super 8s had even started.

[thewobbler]

Seanie I get your point, but I think it's a symptom rather than the cause.

Participation in senior county football, for a lot of people, creates a complicated dynamic due to the commitment involved. And the championship returns for a squad player in a weaker county realistically have to be minimal. Liatroim this season being the obvious recent example.

But from what I can gather, most of these weaker counties don't have trouble gathering up a squad for the national league. It's requires a short, sharp, burst of 3, maybe 4 months with the various pay-offs of genuinely competitive football, the ability to accurately gauge your level, an opportunity to win something, local media attention and praise.... and only a minor/trivial impact on their plans and aspirations for the club season.

They want league football. It suits them. And should a couple of unusually gifted players arrive on the scene in short succession, they will want to use this opportunity to go up a grade or two.

The back door system (and the super 8s) ruined championship football for those counties waiting for an unusual talent or two to appear. Pull together hard, pull off a surprise and knock over a D1 team, and what's the reward? Probably another D1 team. While the team you've beaten, still hang around. They're not beaten at all... just resting. Even the most belligerent and blinkered D4 player knows what's coming. It's a stay of execution. Getting motivated to go through that again, when you know deep inside that the talent gap is too wide, is really a form of masochism.

——

But the good thing about allowing the D3 champions and D4 a place in the playoffs, is that should a team at those levels unearth a gem or two, they get a "straight to go" pass into knockout football to see where they're at, and based on Fermanagh / Sligo / Wexford / Tipp over the past few decades, might pull out a few roots on the way.

Most years this won't happen to be fair.

[Rossfan]

Sid that draw v Mayowestros in 17 was because they kicked their usual plenty of wides and we rescued a draw with  a late difficult free by Donie Smith.
We hadn't the fitness or S&C levels for anither big game 8 days later.
Not to mention a few ridiculous team selections by our then manager.
Our 2019 win over them in Connacht was a wonderful night and will live long in the memory.....but their 17 wides saved us.
How much did this year's massacres by the Rhubarbs  improve Sligo and Leitrim by?

[sid waddell]

Sid that draw v Mayowestros in 17 was because they kicked their usual plenty of wides and we rescued a draw with  a late difficult free by Donie Smith.
We hadn't the fitness or S&C levels for anither big game 8 days later.
Not to mention a few ridiculous team selections by our then manager.
Our 2019 win over them in Connacht was a wonderful night and will live long in the memory.....but their 17 wides saved us.
How much did this year's massacres by the Rhubarbs  improve Sligo and Leitrim by?

Again, Roscommon could hope to compete in an on the day situation. They can't hope to compete in a League situation.

Of course Sligo and Leitrim's hammerings by Mayo didn't improve them.

And neither will the hammering taken by the Division 4 winner by a Division 2 team in this proposed new League as Championship format.

What improved Sligo in the 2000s was being exposed to a regular good standard of football. You can't compete unless you're getting regular good football.

If, hypothetically, Mayo were forcibly consigned to Division 4 for three years as a result of hypothetical financial irregularities, do you think they'd be competing with Dublin by the end of those three years?

Of course they wouldn't. They'd be bet out the gate.

[Keyser soze]

Talking sense there Sid.

[Rossfan]

Does Sids theorem work in reverse?
Put Laythrum in Div 1 for 3 years and they'll win Sam.....??
Anyway well let the wise old elders of the GAA decide at Congress in October.
I suspect we'll be back to the 2017 system with the Tommy Tailteann.

[sid waddell]

Does Sids theorem work in reverse?
Put Laythrum in Div 1 for 3 years and they'll win Sam.....??
Anyway well let the wise old elders of the GAA decide at Congress in October.
I suspect we'll be back to the 2017 system with the Tommy Tailteann.

But I never said if you put Leitrim in the current League Division 1 that they'd win Sam, or contend for it.

And you know I never said that or anything remotely like it.

You just substituted in a lowest common denominator absurdity in the absence of a real reply to my point.

[sid waddell]

Let's have a look at how Proposal B might work out. The NFL 2022 is constituted as follows. I've placed each team position-wise for argument's sake.

Division 1
1 Dublin
2 Kerry
3 Tyrone
4 Mayo
5 Donegal
6 Monaghan
7 Armagh
8 Kildare

Division 2
1 Galway
2 Meath
3 Derry
4 Cork
5 Roscommon
6 Down
7 Clare
8 Offaly

Division 3
1 Westmeath
2 Laois
3 Louth
4 Fermanagh
5 Antrim
6 Longford
7 Limerick
8 Wicklow

Division 4
1 Cavan
2 Tipperary
3 Sligo
4 Wexford
5 Carlow
6 Leitrim
7 Waterford

The 2022 All-Ireland Football final will presumably be scheduled for July 17th - based on July 18th being the original date for the 2021 final before Covid intervened in the early part of the year.

With a two week gap between each knockout round and the end of the League, this would push the first knockout round back to June 5th, and the final round of the league phase itself back to May 22nd.

Your league dates would probably be: April 3rd, April 10th, April 17th, April 24th, May 8th, May 15th, May 22nd.

The newly watered down "Provincial Championships" would be pushed into February and March, with finals around mid-March, perhaps with some of them on St. Patrick's Day. We could expect a similar scenario in these provincial finals as has happened in the knockout rounds of the League in recent years with teams not going full tilt. 

Our ten qualifiers for the knockout rounds of the All-Ireland are:
1 Dublin
2 Kerry
3 Tyrone
4 Mayo
5 Donegal
6 Galway
7 Meath
8 Derry
9 Westmeath
10 Cavan

Qualifiers 1 to 6 get a bye to the quarter-finals so our first knockout round on the weekend of June 4th and 5th is as follows:
Tie A: 7 Meath v 10 Cavan
Tie B: 8 Derry v 9 Westmeath

Quarter-finals on June 18th/19th:
1 Dublin v Winner Tie B (Derry)
2 Kerry v Winner Tie A (Meath)
3 Tyrone v 6 Galway
4 Mayo v 5 Donegal

Semi-finals on July 2nd/3rd:
Dublin v Mayo
Kerry v Tyrone

Final on July 17th:
Dublin v Kerry

You'd then have your rebranded Tommy Murphy Cup made up of the following 13 teams:
Laois
Louth
Fermanagh
Antrim
Longford
Limerick
Wicklow
Tipperary
Sligo
Wexford
Carlow
Leitrim
Waterford

First round on June 4th/5th
Quarter-finals: June 18th/19th
Semi-Finals: July 2nd/3rd
Final: July 17th

It's a very rationalised AFL type structure. The big occasions of the provincial finals and championship ties between local rivals are gone. Most of the football is being played at a bad time of the year with many counter attractions in wider sport. I don't like the prospect of this at all.

[Blowitupref]

Does Sids theorem work in reverse?
Put Laythrum in Div 1 for 3 years and they'll win Sam.....??
Anyway well let the wise old elders of the GAA decide at Congress in October.
I suspect we'll be back to the 2017 system with the Tommy Tailteann.

I'll be pleased if it does but I'll be surprised if that happens. Not a mention of it in media all the talk is about the league style championship format while turning provincial championship into glorified pre season competition and it only needs 60% of the vote to become a reality.

[giveballaghback]

League is our only fair competition, leave it stand alone. At the end of the league draw 4 groups for championship, 2 teams from each division in groups of 8.
ie group 1 play for nestor cup open draw no backdoor, first round only over 2 leg home and away, group 1 Monaghan, Mayo, Offaly, Cork, Laois, Westmeath, Sligo Waterford.
Each group plays for one of the current provincial trophys, 4 winners straight to semi-final,
before long you could have a player playing to complete his set of medals ie nestor anglo celt etc.

[Rossfan]

Does Sids theorem work in reverse?
Put Laythrum in Div 1 for 3 years and they'll win Sam.....??
Anyway well let the wise old elders of the GAA decide at Congress in October.
I suspect we'll be back to the 2017 system with the Tommy Tailteann.

But I never said if you put Leitrim in the current League Division 1 that they'd win Sam, or contend for it.

And you know I never said that or anything remotely like it.

You just substituted in a lowest common denominator absurdity in the absence of a real reply to my point.

I just asked a question based on your logic and cleverly exposed the daftness of your theorem.

Blowitup...I suspect the opposition if the influential Provincial Councols will probably scupper proposal B.
For it will be
the Hurley Counties who won't give a toss about football
The bigger successful Counties who will go with "Head Office" and will be chasing National honours no matter what system
Overseas delegates who will also vote with HQ.

[sid waddell]

Would any serious hurling person advocate abolishing the Munster Hurling final?

Why would any serious football person in Ulster, or anywhere for that matter, advocate abolishing the Ulster football final and the Ulster Championship?

[Jayop]

I still don't see how anyone can contend that getting 7 championship games at their level wont improve teams and encourage players to commit. Sure the D4 winner might get a tanking in a QF but that's sport, tough shit like. The 7 games should be bringing them on.