Cryptocurrency

[imtommygunn]

This thread does nothing to make me think I was wrong to get out when I did!

[trueblue1234]

I've been constantly regretting that I'm a lazy so and do and never bothered looking more into Crypto. Might be the best as I think I'd have struggled to cash out!!
When you see how some people are so into it that their constantly looking at it, I think that's not for me. I'd be up to high dough!!

[smelmoth]

I am still amazed by the people who are going to cash out at the right time. I haven't met one who can explain when the right time will be?

We will get to know when the right time was. It's possible that it's already a date in the past.

But tulips from Amsterdam will be soundtrack to this drama

[toby47]

Crypto on the hike again?

[Armagh18]

Crypto on the hike again?

It's always gonna go up long term.

[AnPuca]

Made an NFT for a laugh to see what all the fuss was about. Some eejit paid £120 for it and relistee it immediately for £500.

There's a niche here if you've got an idea and a bit of brains to make a shit load of money

[RedHand88]

Made an NFT for a laugh to see what all the fuss was about. Some eejit paid £120 for it and relistee it immediately for £500.

There's a niche here if you've got an idea and a bit of brains to make a shit load of money

Seriously? What was it of??

[seafoid]

Crypto is a typical asset bubble. You need the right metrics to know when to get out. Most people don't know how to do it.
The best way to make money is to buy when eveyone else is selling
.

[toby47]

I see Bitcoin took off again. Hit it's all time high this week. $67,000

[seafoid]

FT saying people are using crypto as an inflation hedge but that it has never been done before. Crypto is very volatile

[Smokin Joe]

FT saying people are using crypto as an inflation hedge but that it has never been done before. Crypto is very volatile

It's volatile short term, but it's only going one way, look at a moving average over any half decent period of time.  So over any reasonable time frame it will go up.  Obviously it won't keep making 100% gains on average per year forever as it becomes a bigger market cap and will ultimately be an asset that can be used to ensure that the purchasing power of your money isn't being inflated away.

Whether Bitcoin is the answer, and I think it might be, it is becoming very clear that the world and its economies can't keep going on forever as we have been.  There are huge amounts of money being printed each year in order to keep everything afloat, the increase in the money supply is something like 15% per year.
But interest rates need to be kept close to zero because and increase in the rates will have a hugely negative impact on the economies given the huge size of debts (institutional and government) across the world.

The current official CPI rate is 5.3% (from memory).  Even if you accept that is right, I know in our business inflation is running at much higher than 5.3%, it makes no sense to hold 10 year treasuries (or anything like that) at 1.3%.
There are trillions of dollars being "invested" into bonds and those types of assets that are guaranteed to lose real purchasing power.  It's only a matter of time until they start moving across into Bitcoin, and not for the 100% gains, but only because it is a huge risk by keeping money invested at bond rates.

It could be said that inflation won't stay at 5%, but in recent months, I note that there is now a willingness to accept that these rates may no longer just be "transitory", and to be honest when the money supply is growing at more than 5% per year how do we expect interest rates to fall below 5%.

The 1.3% interest rates are manipulated to stay low, so it doesn't cause an interest on the debt problem. 

Bitcoin, and Crypto more widely, now gives people a choice of whether to stay solely in the fiat system where you are mad to keep anything in cash or cash equivalents as its purchasing power is getting eroded so quickly and hence we are seeing large increases in hard assets such as property or to start dipping their toe into the Crypto space where rates aren't manipulated and are set by the market.
I don't just mean the price of Bitcoin is set by the market.  I am referring to stablecoins (these are pegged to the USD) and you can get interest on them at 8% per annum.  That seems crazy when we get almost zero interest on savings (or even negative interest rates in Euroland), but that's probably about right if you think inflation is running in excess of 5% and you can invest money into hard assets and make double digit percentage returns.

Yes, Bitcoin does get overheated and it crashes, but it's not a bubble as bubbles don't form multiple times in a generally predictable cyclical pattern.  But I believe that it will be the answer as it becomes self fulfilling once the market cap continues to rise.

I think the rise of populism and doing whatever it takes to get elected means that its not in any politicans' interest to provide the medicine that would be needed to bring this back under control.  So we take the easy path and print easy money.  But wealthy people / investors know that they need to do something to ensure their purchasing power is not eroded.
Just this week we saw the first Bitcoin ETFs traded and the Houston Firefighters Pension putting a small amount of their assets in Bitcoin.  We now have a country using Bitcoin for the famous coffee purchases and the Bitcoin network (via Lightning) is facilitating these small payments.  The Bitcoin network can even be used to send a currency (GBP or USD) to another user at almost zero costs, so the users don't even have to be holding / using Bitcoin.
The remittance industry (ie Western Union etc) is totally screwed as improvements will be made as it is actively being used every day in El Salvador.

My personal view is that Bitcoin will get to at least $120k next year.  We will then see the usual crash as it probably goes down to $40k - $60k, but on its next cycle it could be near $500k and then $1m following that.
So yes, it's volatile short term, but the path to where it is going is very clear to me.

I know that not everyone on the Board believes that, and that's OK.  But if you are in that camp have think about how the current system of raising debt ceilings and printing money thus creating an increase in prices but a desire to keep interest rates artificially low can continue?

[seafoid]

FT saying people are using crypto as an inflation hedge but that it has never been done before. Crypto is very volatile

It's volatile short term, but it's only going one way, look at a moving average over any half decent period of time.  So over any reasonable time frame it will go up.  Obviously it won't keep making 100% gains on average per year forever as it becomes a bigger market cap and will ultimately be an asset that can be used to ensure that the purchasing power of your money isn't being inflated away.

Whether Bitcoin is the answer, and I think it might be, it is becoming very clear that the world and its economies can't keep going on forever as we have been.  There are huge amounts of money being printed each year in order to keep everything afloat, the increase in the money supply is something like 15% per year.
But interest rates need to be kept close to zero because and increase in the rates will have a hugely negative impact on the economies given the huge size of debts (institutional and government) across the world.

The current official CPI rate is 5.3% (from memory).  Even if you accept that is right, I know in our business inflation is running at much higher than 5.3%, it makes no sense to hold 10 year treasuries (or anything like that) at 1.3%.
There are trillions of dollars being "invested" into bonds and those types of assets that are guaranteed to lose real purchasing power.  It's only a matter of time until they start moving across into Bitcoin, and not for the 100% gains, but only because it is a huge risk by keeping money invested at bond rates.

It could be said that inflation won't stay at 5%, but in recent months, I note that there is now a willingness to accept that these rates may no longer just be "transitory", and to be honest when the money supply is growing at more than 5% per year how do we expect interest rates to fall below 5%.

The 1.3% interest rates are manipulated to stay low, so it doesn't cause an interest on the debt problem. 

Bitcoin, and Crypto more widely, now gives people a choice of whether to stay solely in the fiat system where you are mad to keep anything in cash or cash equivalents as its purchasing power is getting eroded so quickly and hence we are seeing large increases in hard assets such as property or to start dipping their toe into the Crypto space where rates aren't manipulated and are set by the market.
I don't just mean the price of Bitcoin is set by the market.  I am referring to stablecoins (these are pegged to the USD) and you can get interest on them at 8% per annum.  That seems crazy when we get almost zero interest on savings (or even negative interest rates in Euroland), but that's probably about right if you think inflation is running in excess of 5% and you can invest money into hard assets and make double digit percentage returns.

Yes, Bitcoin does get overheated and it crashes, but it's not a bubble as bubbles don't form multiple times in a generally predictable cyclical pattern.  But I believe that it will be the answer as it becomes self fulfilling once the market cap continues to rise.

I think the rise of populism and doing whatever it takes to get elected means that its not in any politicans' interest to provide the medicine that would be needed to bring this back under control.  So we take the easy path and print easy money.  But wealthy people / investors know that they need to do something to ensure their purchasing power is not eroded.
Just this week we saw the first Bitcoin ETFs traded and the Houston Firefighters Pension putting a small amount of their assets in Bitcoin.  We now have a country using Bitcoin for the famous coffee purchases and the Bitcoin network (via Lightning) is facilitating these small payments.  The Bitcoin network can even be used to send a currency (GBP or USD) to another user at almost zero costs, so the users don't even have to be holding / using Bitcoin.
The remittance industry (ie Western Union etc) is totally screwed as improvements will be made as it is actively being used every day in El Salvador.

My personal view is that Bitcoin will get to at least $120k next year.  We will then see the usual crash as it probably goes down to $40k - $60k, but on its next cycle it could be near $500k and then $1m following that.
So yes, it's volatile short term, but the path to where it is going is very clear to me.

I know that not everyone on the Board believes that, and that's OK.  But if you are in that camp have think about how the current system of raising debt ceilings and printing money thus creating an increase in prices but a desire to keep interest rates artificially low can continue?

The higher the price the smaller the pool of eligible buyers.
The price is only good as long as you can sell the thing .
Same with Dublin house prices.

[Smokin Joe]

The higher the price the smaller the pool of eligible buyers.
The price is only good as long as you can sell the thing .
Same with Dublin house prices.
[/quote]

Fundamentally disagree with that comparison.
You can't buy 1/1000th of a house in Dublin, but you can do that with Bitcoin.

It's all about maintaining whatever purchasing power you have, and that doesn't matter if it's €100 or €1,000,000.

[Armagh18]

Whats the best app for buying crypto? Has anyone ever actually sold any and withdrawn the money?

[smort]

Don't have the answer but just opened an account on Coinbase myself at the weekend. Going to start dabbling with some extra cash I have