China Coronavirus

[Milltown Row2]

Under 400 "cases" in Ireland again today.

Healthy 16 to 50 year olds are yet to be vaccinated. Full construction now open two weeks. Barber shops open today, super spreader marquee weddings, click and collect opening, inter county GAA back, golf back, training back outdoors, all superspreader things that were under enforced closure to "follow the science" are back, apart from pubs and restaurants. If the science is correct we are definitely in for a surge of "cases" in a week or so with the "R" number hitting 2 to 2.5 as the unvaccinated are the main cohort of "super" spreaders to start with.

We'll know more when the bars are opened up indoors and no rule of 6. 3 weeks after it opens up and if its done right and the numbers are the same or lower then the vaccine has worked, less people getting sick and not requiring medical help. We'll hopefully get the supporters back at the grounds and be able to celebrate the wins in the pub afterwards.

[trueblue1234]

Under 400 "cases" in Ireland again today.

Healthy 16 to 50 year olds are yet to be vaccinated. Full construction now open two weeks. Barber shops open today, super spreader marquee weddings, click and collect opening, inter county GAA back, golf back, training back outdoors, all superspreader things that were under enforced closure to "follow the science" are back, apart from pubs and restaurants. If the science is correct we are definitely in for a surge of "cases" in a week or so with the "R" number hitting 2 to 2.5 as the unvaccinated are the main cohort of "super" spreaders to start with.

You sound really annoyed that the vaccine is sorting out this pandemic. I really don't understand that view point.

[imtommygunn]

I particularly like the use of quotes around the word cases.

[Milltown Row2]

I particularly like the use of quotes around the word cases.

What he's like to put in there would be 'flu's' cause in May we are flat out with the Spring/Summer flu that hospitalises people

[highorlow]

You sound really annoyed that the vaccine is sorting out this pandemic.I really don't understand that view point.

To infer that from what I have stated is nonsense.

To state that the vaccine is sorting out this "pandemic" is correct to a certain extent, particularly among the elderly. However the massive spreaders in the country, i.e. the 18 to 40 year olds are not and will not be vaccinated until June. The "cases" remain stagnated within this cohort and have been since Feb (appears to be the same trend as last year), yet we are as open to spreading the "disease" now than we were at Christmas plus we have all these "new variants" around. The numbers are stagnated?

The "science" prior to this, particularly from the Maynooth "scientists" tells us that we ought to have cases of 4000 per day by now from this "highly contagious disease" in the unvaccinated? Maybe they got it wrong?

What I am also questioning is the unscientific lockdown, the hammer to kill the mosquito. I was all for the "circuit breaker" approach and "cocooning", when needed, both of these ideas were mentioned a few times last year but disappeared into the ether along with the brief mention by Boris on losing weight and watching ones diet (don't believe NPHET ever alluded to diet or weight loss programs for people? Poor form from health "experts" imo.). 

Another issue that was never raised on this is the demographics and a solution to solve the regional outbreaks. The spread is not in Donegal as a whole, it is in a wee part of Donegal.

What is the scientific reason for cancelling all outdoor concerts this year if the vaccine is "sorting out this pandemic"? I just don't get it? Maybe I'm missing something?

If we are 80% vaccinated by end of June and the vaccine sorts this out why can't we get back to normal fully at this stage?

If someone gives me an acceptable scientific reason to not be back to full "normal" by the end of June I would like to hear from them.

Opposing voice = Conspiracy Theorist

[armaghniac]

What is the scientific reason for cancelling all outdoor concerts this year if the vaccine is "sorting out this pandemic"? I just don't get it? Maybe I'm missing something?

You are missing that this is early May, and it simply is not possible to say with absolute confidence at this stage what will happen later in the year. Likely there will be concerts for fully vaccinated people. 

[highorlow]

You are missing that this is early May, and it simply is not possible to say with absolute confidence at this stage what will happen later in the year. Likely there will be concerts for fully vaccinated people.

Good point. The future will answer many questions.

There is always Malahide beach for the impromptu uncontrolled summer raves anyhow.

[trueblue1234]

You sound really annoyed that the vaccine is sorting out this pandemic.I really don't understand that view point.

To infer that from what I have stated is nonsense.

To state that the vaccine is sorting out this "pandemic" is correct to a certain extent, particularly among the elderly. However the massive spreaders in the country, i.e. the 18 to 40 year olds are not and will not be vaccinated until June. The "cases" remain stagnated within this cohort and have been since Feb (appears to be the same trend as last year), yet we are as open to spreading the "disease" now than we were at Christmas plus we have all these "new variants" around. The numbers are stagnated?

The "science" prior to this, particularly from the Maynooth "scientists" tells us that we ought to have cases of 4000 per day by now from this "highly contagious disease" in the unvaccinated? Maybe they got it wrong?

What I am also questioning is the unscientific lockdown, the hammer to kill the mosquito. I was all for the "circuit breaker" approach and "cocooning", when needed, both of these ideas were mentioned a few times last year but disappeared into the ether along with the brief mention by Boris on losing weight and watching ones diet (don't believe NPHET ever alluded to diet or weight loss programs for people? Poor form from health "experts" imo.). 

Another issue that was never raised on this is the demographics and a solution to solve the regional outbreaks. The spread is not in Donegal as a whole, it is in a wee part of Donegal.

What is the scientific reason for cancelling all outdoor concerts this year if the vaccine is "sorting out this pandemic"? I just don't get it? Maybe I'm missing something?

If we are 80% vaccinated by end of June and the vaccine sorts this out why can't we get back to normal fully at this stage?

If someone gives me an acceptable scientific reason to not be back to full "normal" by the end of June I would like to hear from them.

Opposing voice = Conspiracy Theorist

There is no two ways about it. The vaccine is absolutely sorting this pandemic out. The U40 group that is unvaccinated is also the age grouping that Covid had lest impact on. Therefore it's not unsurprising to see levels drop. We are not as open to spreading the disease now as Feb because the numbers are much lower, therefore there is less Covid to spread. Again that shouldn't need explaining. It has always been part of the process of lockdowns to bring numbers down.
The science behind the slow open up is quite simple. They have 2 options. Open up quickly and take the chance that Covid is properly under control but if they are wrong potentially look at another spike and we know what can happen from that. Or remove limitations slowly and review the impact to ensure Covid is kept in check. If they are being too cautious it might be a few weeks extra lockdown that wasn't required. I'd prefer to risk that than a potential spike again,

[highorlow]

There is no two ways about it. The vaccine is absolutely sorting this pandemic out. The U40 group that is unvaccinated is also the age grouping that Covid had lest impact on. Therefore it's not unsurprising to see levels drop. We are not as open to spreading the disease now as Feb because the numbers are much lower, therefore there is less Covid to spread. Again that shouldn't need explaining. It has always been part of the process of lockdowns to bring numbers down.
The science behind the slow open up is quite simple. They have 2 options. Open up quickly and take the chance that Covid is properly under control but if they are wrong potentially look at another spike and we know what can happen from that. Or remove limitations slowly and review the impact to ensure Covid is kept in check. If they are being too cautious it might be a few weeks extra lockdown that wasn't required. I'd prefer to risk that than a potential spike again,

The parts in bold are complete and utter nonsense apart from the first one. Most of what you said is contradictory and validates my arguments. Least impact, low risk u40's therefore why have a lockdown? The numbers were also much lower last October and the thing spread so I don't get your "less Covid to spread" point at all? The "process of lockdowns" certainly brings the numbers down, that's clear, weather the process was fully correct and followed the "science" is another story.

The major issue, and you may agree or disagree with me on this was a failure by the HSE and NPHET to protect the care homes and hospital wards. It's clear that this thing spreads in particular environments. Whether locking down the healthy and closing businesses and telling people to "stay indoors" during the spike period helped or not is anyone's guess, maybe for a circuit breaker period, maybe not at all?

As every week that goes by now it is costing the state and citizens vast sums of cash, Europe will use our corporate tax rate as a bargaining tool to bail us out of this mess. 10 of the largest FDI companies are responsible for 90% of our corporate tax income as well as been the largest employers in the country. With this mix and Biden in power we are in for a ropey period economically.

None of the economic fallout ever appears to be factored into the risk by the NPHET's of this world.

The tsunami of the waiting lists next September to Feb 22 for hospital treatments is also on the way. That's a story for another day.

How will we take pressure off what will be a malfunctioning and underfunded health sector next Winter? Lord knows.

[Angelo]

There is no two ways about it. The vaccine is absolutely sorting this pandemic out. The U40 group that is unvaccinated is also the age grouping that Covid had lest impact on. Therefore it's not unsurprising to see levels drop. We are not as open to spreading the disease now as Feb because the numbers are much lower, therefore there is less Covid to spread. Again that shouldn't need explaining. It has always been part of the process of lockdowns to bring numbers down.
The science behind the slow open up is quite simple. They have 2 options. Open up quickly and take the chance that Covid is properly under control but if they are wrong potentially look at another spike and we know what can happen from that. Or remove limitations slowly and review the impact to ensure Covid is kept in check. If they are being too cautious it might be a few weeks extra lockdown that wasn't required. I'd prefer to risk that than a potential spike again,

The parts in bold are complete and utter nonsense apart from the first one. Most of what you said is contradictory and validates my arguments. Least impact, low risk u40's therefore why have a lockdown? The numbers were also much lower last October and the thing spread so I don't get your "less Covid to spread" point at all? The "process of lockdowns" certainly brings the numbers down, that's clear, weather the process was fully correct and followed the "science" is another story.

The major issue, and you may agree or disagree with me on this was a failure by the HSE and NPHET to protect the care homes and hospital wards. It's clear that this thing spreads in particular environments. Whether locking down the healthy and closing businesses and telling people to "stay indoors" during the spike period helped or not is anyone's guess, maybe for a circuit breaker period, maybe not at all?

As every week that goes by now it is costing the state and citizens vast sums of cash, Europe will use our corporate tax rate as a bargaining tool to bail us out of this mess. 10 of the largest FDI companies are responsible for 90% of our corporate tax income as well as been the largest employers in the country. With this mix and Biden in power we are in for a ropey period economically.

None of the economic fallout ever appears to be factored into the risk by the NPHET's of this world.

The tsunami of the waiting lists next September to Feb 22 for hospital treatments is also on the way. That's a story for another day.

How will we take pressure off what will be a malfunctioning and underfunded health sector next Winter? Lord knows.

Great post.

Lockdowns caused huge damage and seemed to have little impact when the virus peaked.

The real problems was the inability of governments and health services to effectively protect the vulnerable in hospital and care settings. It was nice of them to blame those failings on the people rather than acknowledge their own errors.

[Louther]

Jesus H Christ. Here come the usual suspects with the same usual claims. Is it November 2020 again?

[highorlow]

Jesus H Christ. Here come the usual suspects with the same usual claims. Is it November 2020 again?

Not claims, facts.

Based on true blues logic if we were a population of 3.5million people and everyone was under the age of 50 then Covid wouldn't exist or there would be "less Covid to spread" as he says himself. Maybe he is correct? All the science and data was known from the the petri dish of the Diamond Princess (seen as louther wants to go back in time).

This was a care home and hospital pandemic, the healthy public were the scapegoats / scapesheep.

Opposing voice  = "Usual Claims"

[trueblue1234]

There is no two ways about it. The vaccine is absolutely sorting this pandemic out. The U40 group that is unvaccinated is also the age grouping that Covid had lest impact on. Therefore it's not unsurprising to see levels drop. We are not as open to spreading the disease now as Feb because the numbers are much lower, therefore there is less Covid to spread. Again that shouldn't need explaining. It has always been part of the process of lockdowns to bring numbers down.
The science behind the slow open up is quite simple. They have 2 options. Open up quickly and take the chance that Covid is properly under control but if they are wrong potentially look at another spike and we know what can happen from that. Or remove limitations slowly and review the impact to ensure Covid is kept in check. If they are being too cautious it might be a few weeks extra lockdown that wasn't required. I'd prefer to risk that than a potential spike again,

The parts in bold are complete and utter nonsense apart from the first one. Most of what you said is contradictory and validates my arguments. Least impact, low risk u40's therefore why have a lockdown? The numbers were also much lower last October and the thing spread so I don't get your "less Covid to spread" point at all? The "process of lockdowns" certainly brings the numbers down, that's clear, weather the process was fully correct and followed the "science" is another story.

The major issue, and you may agree or disagree with me on this was a failure by the HSE and NPHET to protect the care homes and hospital wards. It's clear that this thing spreads in particular environments. Whether locking down the healthy and closing businesses and telling people to "stay indoors" during the spike period helped or not is anyone's guess, maybe for a circuit breaker period, maybe not at all?

As every week that goes by now it is costing the state and citizens vast sums of cash, Europe will use our corporate tax rate as a bargaining tool to bail us out of this mess. 10 of the largest FDI companies are responsible for 90% of our corporate tax income as well as been the largest employers in the country. With this mix and Biden in power we are in for a ropey period economically.

None of the economic fallout ever appears to be factored into the risk by the NPHET's of this world.

The tsunami of the waiting lists next September to Feb 22 for hospital treatments is also on the way. That's a story for another day.

How will we take pressure off what will be a malfunctioning and underfunded health sector next Winter? Lord knows.

Naw you've lost me. You've highlighted things in bold claiming they were nonsense but then went on to agree with parts of it. That U40's are affected less than the higher age groups, That lockdowns lower numbers, That numbers are lower now than Feb. Let me know what issues you have with any of that.

Jesus H Christ. Here come the usual suspects with the same usual claims. Is it November 2020 again?

Not claims, facts.

Based on true blues logic if we were a population of 3.5million people and everyone was under the age of 50 then Covid wouldn't exist or there would be "less Covid to spread" as he says himself. Maybe he is correct? All the science and data was known from the the petri dish of the Diamond Princess (seen as louther wants to go back in time).

This was a care home and hospital pandemic, the healthy public were the scapegoats / scapesheep.

Opposing voice  = "Usual Claims"

I'd be interested to see where I claimed that? There is less covid cases now than earlier in the year. The higher the number of cases the increased risk of catching covid. Are you not getting this? It's basic stuff. I never said the U40's can't get or carry covid. Which is why there are still restrictions on indoor meetings/ socialising I'm really at a loss for what exactly your argument is? The rest about hospitals and cares homes is valid. However when covid is rife in society it's virtually impossible to keep it out of these places. That's why lockdowns were needed.

[highorlow]

There is less covid cases now than earlier in the year. The higher the number of cases the increased risk of catching covid. Are you not getting this?

Exponential growth was the science though? And the science behind the the lockdowns. THIS is what you don't appear to get or else it's something that doesn't suit your narrative.

In any single week in Ireland there are likely 3000 people traipsing around "with" covid.

The science says these people can carry and spread this presymptomaticly. The vast majority of the people testing positive since Feb (probably 400 average per day) are under 40 and probably the average age is under 30.

You are trying to say to me now that the reason that we no longer have "exponential" growth is due to the vaccine? Are you trying to say that all these under 30 year old Covid carriers are skating in the park with their vaccinated grannies rather than their mates?

Much of the science has proven that lockdowns and severe lockdowns are unnecessary (i think even the WHO stated these were a last resort), the vaccine is now further proving the same. Any opposing voice to severe lockdowns are "making claims" or "conspiracy theorists".

However when covid is rife in society it's virtually impossible to keep it out of these places. That's why lockdowns were needed.

NPHET had a year or more to sort out this. It's virtually impossible but not completely impossible. Leaky Leo said we would have the South Korea testing and tracing system in place here, yet by x-mass the excel software they were using blew up. What's the function of the Covid APP? Nobody can explain what use that was? What was citywest for? I presumed at the time that was going to be set up as a covid only hospital to avoid staff and non covid patients mixing?

Anyhow these are all for the usual "lessons learned" report that happens throughout the Irish Civil service on a monthly basis.

I''m also guessing that we will find out at some stage that they have subbed out the vaccine rollout to some larger "top 10" firm, as there is no way that the HSE / NPHET or the DOH are in any way capable of undertaking the logistics of the vaccine rollout to the success it is eventually getting to. They will take the praise though.

[imtommygunn]

Was that not based on the R number though?