6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[johnnycool]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

Noel sands, former high profile Down hurler from Portaferry standing for SF. He will hoover up votes round Portaferry but whether he egts over the line is another matter.

Can't see it.
He may get the youth vote out in Kircubbin and Portaferry but the older generations aren't inclined to vote SF and will stick to Joe Hot Spot and the SDLP.

normally 1200 votes or thereabouts needed to get in with the STV system, possible for 2 nationalist candidates but unlikely.

[marty34]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

Noel sands, former high profile Down hurler from Portaferry standing for SF. He will hoover up votes round Portaferry but whether he egts over the line is another matter.

Can't see it.
He may get the youth vote out in Kircubbin and Portaferry but the older generations aren't inclined to vote SF and will stick to Joe Hot Spot and the SDLP.

normally 1200 votes or thereabouts needed to get in with the STV system, possible for 2 nationalist candidates but unlikely.

Maybe they voted for SDLP as they had no other option.

Be interesting to see how he goes.

[Mourne Red]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

Noel sands, former high profile Down hurler from Portaferry standing for SF. He will hoover up votes round Portaferry but whether he egts over the line is another matter.

Can't see it.
He may get the youth vote out in Kircubbin and Portaferry but the older generations aren't inclined to vote SF and will stick to Joe Hot Spot and the SDLP.

normally 1200 votes or thereabouts needed to get in with the STV system, possible for 2 nationalist candidates but unlikely.

Maybe they voted for SDLP as they had no other option.

Be interesting to see how he goes.

Doubt SF get it.. Not one poster of Sands up around the place. SDLP is up all around the ards peninsula 

[square_ball]

Interesting to see how Mid Ulster goes with 5 independent republicans going for election. 2 in Torrent, 2 in Dungannon and 1 in Clogher Valley.

[Eire90]

dup could be kingmakers once again in uk

[marty34]

dup could be kingmakers once again in uk

That election is a long way away yet.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

Mary Lou not showing up for british tv tonight

angry nordies on fire 

[johnnycool]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

Noel sands, former high profile Down hurler from Portaferry standing for SF. He will hoover up votes round Portaferry but whether he egts over the line is another matter.

Can't see it.
He may get the youth vote out in Kircubbin and Portaferry but the older generations aren't inclined to vote SF and will stick to Joe Hot Spot and the SDLP.

normally 1200 votes or thereabouts needed to get in with the STV system, possible for 2 nationalist candidates but unlikely.

Maybe they voted for SDLP as they had no other option.

Be interesting to see how he goes.

Doubt SF get it.. Not one poster of Sands up around the place. SDLP is up all around the ards peninsula

Plenty in and around Kircubbin, Cloughey and Portaferry where the most of his votes will be coming from.

[Pub Bore]

Mary Lou not showing up for british tv tonight

angry nordies on fire 

I thought that was a strange interview by Carruthers.  Nothing on the local election issues, and he came across as someone who would have been angry if O'Neill hadn't gone to the coronation and was now angry because she did.

[Milltown Row2]

Mary Lou not showing up for british tv tonight

angry nordies on fire 

I thought that was a strange interview by Carruthers.  Nothing on the local election issues, and he came across as someone who would have been angry if O'Neill hadn't gone to the coronation and was now angry because she did.

Conor had his measure and it petered out.. Dammed if she did and dammed if she didn't

Personally she did the right thing. she's on a slogan first minister for all, That's how to ram it down their throats

[Pub Bore]

Mary Lou not showing up for british tv tonight

angry nordies on fire 

I thought that was a strange interview by Carruthers.  Nothing on the local election issues, and he came across as someone who would have been angry if O'Neill hadn't gone to the coronation and was now angry because she did.

Conor had his measure and it petered out.. Dammed if she did and dammed if she didn't

Personally she did the right thing. she's on a slogan first minister for all, That's how to ram it down their throats

Murphy looked more and more baffled as the interview went on.  Like he was thinking - WTF is Mark on about!

[Feckitt]

Election day tomorrow,

Vote Early, Vote Often

[Nanderson]

Imagine coming home from London to vote in your local elections just to keep themuns out

[trailer]

Mid Ulster could be interesting.
Real squeeze on SF by Independent Republicans
In Dungannon Barry Monteith (current councillor) and Marian Vincent are up against Dominc Molloy, (current councillor & Francie's son ) and Deirdre Varsani. Interesting to see how that goes. Molloy has a good profile and is liked.
In Clogher Gael Gildernew is trying to defend her father Phelim's seat who retired (She is also Michelle's (MP) Sister and Colm's (MLA) Brother) her along with Eugene McConnell and Sean McGuigan (current coucillor) are up against Kevin McElvogue Ind Rep. SF have 2 elected and running 3. I think they might lose a seat here.
In Torrent Michelle O'Neill's home turf, Dan Kerr Ind Rep (current councillor) has Teresa Quinn as his running mate. SF are running 4.

Some SF voters are a bit pissed with the lack of selection process and the coronation of certain candidates from certain families. While SF will probably have a very good day across the north, Mid Ulster will be interesting. Ind Republicans are running 5 cands and calling it the drive for 5. I think they will add 1 for sure with McElvogue.

One to watch.

[seafoid]

SF are very popular but they do SFA for the local  economy which is a mess.