6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[red hander]

It's clear after comments by Brandon Lewis (as thick a Tory as you could find) that he won't call a border poll until he see the nationalist vote comfortably go ahead of Unionist. SDLP will need to find a way to stop bleed to Alliance as clearly a nationalist vote will only be interpreted as SF/SDLP. Perhaps SF can engineer a way to secure a vote in Assembly for border poll to put presssure on Lewis. Would need Alliance on board. I would not discount FF/FG trying to take ownership of securing the date with London before going into next election - as unlikely as that might sound.

Can't see SF telling their voters to vote alliance over sdlp for much longer. Cretins

Only they didn't, cretin. Nationalists saw the Wee Croppy Boy, who promised to stop Brexit as his excuse for swearing allegiance to an English queen, celebrate the centenary of the failed statelet that treated them like shit, canvassed with FF/FG shysters who abandoned them to their fate in 1921, and blamed Sinn Fein for a situation that was 100% the fault of supremist unionism, and decided the shameless SDLP deserved nada, transfer wise. No one told no one how to vote. People have minds of their own, and wee Colum's situation is down to no one but wee Colum. f**k him, sideways.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

It's clear after comments by Brandon Lewis (as thick a Tory as you could find) that he won't call a border poll until he see the nationalist vote comfortably go ahead of Unionist. SDLP will need to find a way to stop bleed to Alliance as clearly a nationalist vote will only be interpreted as SF/SDLP. Perhaps SF can engineer a way to secure a vote in Assembly for border poll to put presssure on Lewis. Would need Alliance on board. I would not discount FF/FG trying to take ownership of securing the date with London before going into next election - as unlikely as that might sound.

Can't see SF telling their voters to vote alliance over sdlp for much longer. Cretins

Only they didn't, cretin. Nationalists saw the Wee Croppy Boy, who promised to stop Brexit as his excuse for swearing allegiance to an English queen, celebrate the centenary of the failed statelet that treated them like shit, canvassed with FF/FG shysters who abandoned them to their fate in 1921, and blamed Sinn Fein for a situation that was 100% the fault of supremist unionism, and decided the shameless SDLP deserved nada, transfer wise. No one told no one how to vote. People have minds of their own, and wee Colum's situation is down to no one but wee Colum. f**k him, sideways.

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote. I strongly dislike colum but SF are cretins and their next target is Alliance

[red hander]

It's clear after comments by Brandon Lewis (as thick a Tory as you could find) that he won't call a border poll until he see the nationalist vote comfortably go ahead of Unionist. SDLP will need to find a way to stop bleed to Alliance as clearly a nationalist vote will only be interpreted as SF/SDLP. Perhaps SF can engineer a way to secure a vote in Assembly for border poll to put presssure on Lewis. Would need Alliance on board. I would not discount FF/FG trying to take ownership of securing the date with London before going into next election - as unlikely as that might sound.

Can't see SF telling their voters to vote alliance over sdlp for much longer. Cretins

Only they didn't, cretin. Nationalists saw the Wee Croppy Boy, who promised to stop Brexit as his excuse for swearing allegiance to an English queen, celebrate the centenary of the failed statelet that treated them like shit, canvassed with FF/FG shysters who abandoned them to their fate in 1921, and blamed Sinn Fein for a situation that was 100% the fault of supremist unionism, and decided the shameless SDLP deserved nada, transfer wise. No one told no one how to vote. People have minds of their own, and wee Colum's situation is down to no one but wee Colum. f**k him, sideways.

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote. I strongly dislike colum but SF are cretins and their next target is Alliance

Nice story. Bullshit. Nobody tells nobody nothing. People have free will.

[Eire90]

Maybe eastwood should not have threatened and demonised people  funny how eastwood went quiet  when uk government went quiet.

[Snapchap]

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote.

Can you go one week without posting some totally anecdotal and unprovable stort of what SF have been doing to to upset you in Derry? lol

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

It's clear after comments by Brandon Lewis (as thick a Tory as you could find) that he won't call a border poll until he see the nationalist vote comfortably go ahead of Unionist. SDLP will need to find a way to stop bleed to Alliance as clearly a nationalist vote will only be interpreted as SF/SDLP. Perhaps SF can engineer a way to secure a vote in Assembly for border poll to put presssure on Lewis. Would need Alliance on board. I would not discount FF/FG trying to take ownership of securing the date with London before going into next election - as unlikely as that might sound.

Can't see SF telling their voters to vote alliance over sdlp for much longer. Cretins

Only they didn't, cretin. Nationalists saw the Wee Croppy Boy, who promised to stop Brexit as his excuse for swearing allegiance to an English queen, celebrate the centenary of the failed statelet that treated them like shit, canvassed with FF/FG shysters who abandoned them to their fate in 1921, and blamed Sinn Fein for a situation that was 100% the fault of supremist unionism, and decided the shameless SDLP deserved nada, transfer wise. No one told no one how to vote. People have minds of their own, and wee Colum's situation is down to no one but wee Colum. f**k him, sideways.

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote. I strongly dislike colum but SF are cretins and their next target is Alliance

Nice story. Bullshit. Nobody tells nobody nothing. People have free will.

Ok, so innocent

[Armagh18]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

It's hard to know why SF promised a border poll within 5 years. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

What is your motivation for this? I mean, you have entirely altered what was said.

He is clearly a partitionist and as such tries to make anyone pushing for unity look bad...

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote.

Can you go one week without posting some totally anecdotal and unprovable stort of what SF have been doing to to upset you in Derry? lol

I live here, i think you are a free stater? This is twice they done it now, once they have crushed SDLP , Alliance will be next target, watch this space.

[Armagh18]

Are we allowed another vote after 7 yrs if we don't like a united Ireland?

would you not be better moving to London

[seafoid]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

It's hard to know why SF promised a border poll within 5 years. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

What is your motivation for this? I mean, you have entirely altered what was said.

He is clearly a partitionist and as such tries to make anyone pushing for unity look bad...

I think if it is done properly it has a high chance of success. It's the economy that needs to be addressed because NI is underpeforming and fixing this is the only way to bring Unionists along , go past 60% and unlock the efficiency gains of removing partition eg Derry/Inishowen.
The Union sucks, even for Unionists. London doesn't care about the UK regions.

The Assembly election didn't change anything. It was no gamechanger. SF biggest party but same equilibrium as before.

I don't think the Shinners understand the big game. It's not about optics.  Its about thinking. This is senior hurling.

[Snapchap]

SF were last week telling  people in Creggan to give Alliance a vote.

Can you go one week without posting some totally anecdotal and unprovable stort of what SF have been doing to to upset you in Derry? lol

I live here, i think you are a free stater? This is twice they done it now, once they have crushed SDLP , Alliance will be next target, watch this space.

You think I'm a free stater? You haven't been paying attention lmao!!

P.s. Love your stories. keep them coming.

"Gerry Adams ate my hampster"

[johnnycool]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

It's hard to know why SF promised a border poll within 5 years. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

What is your motivation for this? I mean, you have entirely altered what was said.

He is clearly a partitionist and as such tries to make anyone pushing for unity look bad...

I think if it is done properly it has a high chance of success. It's the economy that needs to be addressed because NI is underpeforming and fixing this is the only way to bring Unionists along , go past 60% and unlock the efficiency gains of removing partition eg Derry/Inishowen.
The Union sucks, even for Unionists. London doesn't care about the UK regions.

The Assembly election didn't change anything. It was no gamechanger. SF biggest party but same equilibrium as before.

I don't think the Shinners understand the big game. It's not about optics.  Its about thinking. This is senior hurling.

Factually you are correct, the First Minister/Deputy First Minister thing is off equals but watch how this plays out around the world.

This is the BBC's Lewis Goodalls take on it;

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1522998359123972096


The symbolism of this and how it plays out in the less well informed US is where the play for a UI could gather legs.

FWIW, I too don't think SF are best placed to be pushing for a UI, it has to come from a civic forum, with academics in the various main fields, economics, education, trade, health, so on and so forth to come up with a viable plan for a new Ireland, united Ireland or whatever.

The less politicians about it the better..

[Franko]

It is an overwhelming pro protocol endorsement?

It's a pools win for polarisation

Nonsense.  The so called "middle" ground had it's biggest vote ever.  It's maybe the least polarised election in the 6 counties in recent history.

Not with the state of the DUP . Are they likely to go into Government ?

Unlikely.  But totally irrelevant to your original point

Polarisation is a core feature of elections the world over

You've become too acclimatised to political arena in the 26

In the period since treaty politics died away and before SF, polaristaion was essentially impossible

All the parties were different shades of the same colour

It didn't really matter who was in control, the result was centre-right neoliberalism

[marty34]

Yeah, it's totally a symbolic thing.  I think that's the main reason the DUP will not go in again.  They set their stall up a few months re: protocol when they saw the series of opinion polls and they were lagging behind SF. This was when they made the statement about protocol must be sorted. 

They don't see nationalists as equals.
They only do equality on their terms.
Nationalists must call them out on this and use this mantra to the media.

Aoife Moore was on RTÉ yesterday saying SF were driving the re-united Ireland theme and that it was ironic that FFG etc. in the 26 counties have no interest...and them so called republican parties.

SF must be pleased about their move in Derry to replace their two mla's there with new candidates.  Worked out really well for them.

DUP, after losing votes, but holding a lot of seats will be happy enough I think.  They'll be delighted that Allister is just back in himself.

Alliance got a lot of the 4th and 5th seats and will be delighted. Be interesting to see will this replicate into council seats at the next local elections.

SDLP will be shocked. Typical Derry city bluster under Eastwood. He needs to be asked the hard questions.

UUP didn't get much from the Beattie bounce but always said they have to shrink before they grow. Maybe he's right to stick at it.

Aontú - the mirror opposite to the TUV. With the backing of the bishops and the CC, they haven't made much inroads. Be interesting to see will you see their candidates stand again in the local elections.

Green Party - lost two seats and everyone disappointed about that, whatever political party you support. Again, they'll have to build from the bottom up.

PBP - Carroll the single mla again. Squeezed out again.

[Franko]

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/we-will-honour-commitment-to-hold-border-poll-says-tory-party-chair-oliver-dowden-41624183.html

"Tory party chair Oliver Dowden has said the UK Government will honour the constitutional obligation to hold a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland if "there is a sustained majority" in favour of unification."


Sustained majority does not mean 27-25 following 28-27.
The DUP could in theory wipe out TUV and UUP next time for plus 10 with SF doing the same on the other side with the SDLP. for plus 8.

The milestone of largest party nationalist is not the same as the milestone for sustained majority for border poll.

We know all this.

Why do you keep saying stuff like this

Do you think you are adding to the discussion

Or are you just blunderbussing words at the page in the hope that something might make sense?