China Coronavirus

[Louther]

The Vaccine take up will be a worry when it's starts to roll out more and there will be resist to it. I also feel there will be enough good reason for the soft 20% to follow through and get it. The remaining 20% will he a hard group to target and the minority who aggressively peddle an anti-vac stance will also be more aggressive in their stance.

The take up here and abroad, with some European countries like France and Italy showing even higher levels of take up, will be key and why they are looking to global roll out and collective approach. Some
Commentary that UK moving too quick but could equally Stevie EU moving far too slow for whatever reason and their seem to be several eg delay in orders/approval, supply, roll out strategy.

On zero covid, my preferred would be to aggressively pursue it but that will take a severe hard lockdown before international travel restrictions and whatever about government having ambition for that, I don't enough people have at this stage. The Northern border is one thing but we've a short sea/land border to UK and Europe and it would seem very difficult to close this off. On paper it seems easy but such are the transport and work corridors in place, it's a big task to manage and enforce.

Our personal 5km border is very very suspect at present. We see the numbers happy to travel overseas are taking the €500 fine and continuing the journey, it's even more at local level with €100 fine and in most cases a chance to just turn round and try a different route to destination.

That is a high percentage. It can't be anywhere near that. Most people I've interacted with from many age ranges are all pretty much "If it gets it back to normal, why not".

Most I know would get it but reading over weekend has already been some cases where care workers in nursing homes and HSE staff have not taken the vaccine when presented with it. So it's the case that people out there.

I know 2 people in work who have said they won't take one. Could see 1 actually taking it but the other would be beyond talking to - Bill Gates microchip levels.

[LeoMc]

Some very good points Sid and well thought out.

I'd suffer on one area and that is our lockdown - both sides of the border. I'd not say it's by any means a hard lockdown. We haven't gone to lengths that Australia, New Zealand, China, etc have went to we strict implementation of the rules such as curfews, internal travel etc. As you'd said, most of our restrictions have been to effect of living with the Virus rather than surpressing it.

The first lockdown was much more effective and visible in its effect. Since then each time it's impact is less noticeable. Our classification of what is essential business is far looser than other nations.

And that goes before you consider compliance with the rules. As a nation, we look for loopholes rather than taking them as intended and justify them to suit own self interests.

Lockdown has not been easy for anyone and no one wants them. But seems to be reluctance to do what's right to move out of the quicker. But I don't think there is middle ground with this virus. Given chance it will quickly rise again.

At present I don't think zero covid will be an option with our borders and movement of people. With vaccine on the horizon there will be even less desire to attain this.

With the vaccine - and we all hope they are super effective and end this thing -  I fear we will run into a wall

Everybody who is getting the vaccine currently is super eager to get it - and I'd estimate that about 40-50% of the population are very eager to get it

Then I'd estimate that around another 25-30% are "soft yesses", ie. they are not against getting it, but at the same time probably aren't that bothered, they will play it by ear

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

We need probably 85% of the population at least to get vaccinated before we run into a theoretical herd immunity situation - the new variants are believed to have upped the percentage needed from 70%

I fear we'll run into a wall where we only get maybe 65-70% vaccinated

I think a lot of the soft yesses will end up not bothering to get it - "ah shure deaths are going down, this thing is fizzling out"

But that means we will still have the virus and perhaps have to continually revaccinate as he years go by, or a new super variant could emerge which evades vaccines

The more I think about it, the worldwide vaccination situation will likely turn into a shitshow as regards how it affects movement in various countries, we will be in a long period of uncertainty and it will cause huge divisions both within countries and between countries

Regarding Zero Covid/aggressive suppression, the border is a problem, but Ryan believes you can cut out around 90% of the chains of transmission even if the DUP keep doing what they're doing

The border is not a reason to not do Zero Covid

Even if it does not work as effectively as New Zealand, which it likely wouldn't, it would almost certainly work a good deal better than this current non-strategy

Anyway everybody in the Republic currently has a 5km border around them

Yes, there are millions who won't go near the vaccine, but eventually they'll have to get it, because you'll need a 'covid passport' to do anything, eg. shop, travel, go to work, go to the gym, go to mass, attend sports events, concerts etc.

I'm keeping an eye on the vaccine situation in New Zealand. Because if they remain covid free, with strict quarantine laws, then why would anyone in NZ need to get the vaccine?

Maybe someday they would like to leave New Zealand or to welcome in more foreign visitors without the need for them to take a 2 week quarantine.

[BennyCake]

Some very good points Sid and well thought out.

I'd suffer on one area and that is our lockdown - both sides of the border. I'd not say it's by any means a hard lockdown. We haven't gone to lengths that Australia, New Zealand, China, etc have went to we strict implementation of the rules such as curfews, internal travel etc. As you'd said, most of our restrictions have been to effect of living with the Virus rather than surpressing it.

The first lockdown was much more effective and visible in its effect. Since then each time it's impact is less noticeable. Our classification of what is essential business is far looser than other nations.

And that goes before you consider compliance with the rules. As a nation, we look for loopholes rather than taking them as intended and justify them to suit own self interests.

Lockdown has not been easy for anyone and no one wants them. But seems to be reluctance to do what's right to move out of the quicker. But I don't think there is middle ground with this virus. Given chance it will quickly rise again.

At present I don't think zero covid will be an option with our borders and movement of people. With vaccine on the horizon there will be even less desire to attain this.

With the vaccine - and we all hope they are super effective and end this thing -  I fear we will run into a wall

Everybody who is getting the vaccine currently is super eager to get it - and I'd estimate that about 40-50% of the population are very eager to get it

Then I'd estimate that around another 25-30% are "soft yesses", ie. they are not against getting it, but at the same time probably aren't that bothered, they will play it by ear

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

We need probably 85% of the population at least to get vaccinated before we run into a theoretical herd immunity situation - the new variants are believed to have upped the percentage needed from 70%

I fear we'll run into a wall where we only get maybe 65-70% vaccinated

I think a lot of the soft yesses will end up not bothering to get it - "ah shure deaths are going down, this thing is fizzling out"

But that means we will still have the virus and perhaps have to continually revaccinate as he years go by, or a new super variant could emerge which evades vaccines

The more I think about it, the worldwide vaccination situation will likely turn into a shitshow as regards how it affects movement in various countries, we will be in a long period of uncertainty and it will cause huge divisions both within countries and between countries

Regarding Zero Covid/aggressive suppression, the border is a problem, but Ryan believes you can cut out around 90% of the chains of transmission even if the DUP keep doing what they're doing

The border is not a reason to not do Zero Covid

Even if it does not work as effectively as New Zealand, which it likely wouldn't, it would almost certainly work a good deal better than this current non-strategy

Anyway everybody in the Republic currently has a 5km border around them

Yes, there are millions who won't go near the vaccine, but eventually they'll have to get it, because you'll need a 'covid passport' to do anything, eg. shop, travel, go to work, go to the gym, go to mass, attend sports events, concerts etc.

I'm keeping an eye on the vaccine situation in New Zealand. Because if they remain covid free, with strict quarantine laws, then why would anyone in NZ need to get the vaccine?

Maybe someday they would like to leave New Zealand or to welcome in more foreign visitors without the need for them to take a 2 week quarantine.

But they say the vaccine at best is only 95% effective (I doubt it's even close to that). NZ clearly have a near 100% success with their quarantine laws, and the country has been covid free for months (bar 1 or 2 cases). So their methods are much more effective than any vaccine will be.

Heard an Irishwoman in NZ say there's a 7/8 week wait to book a quarantine hotel, and it costs $3000 per adult. So let's face it, international travel as we knew is finished.

If I was from NZ, I'd be more than happy with what they're doing. Everywhere is opened, economy going well, except international tourism, which is a small price price to pay knowing people are stopped at entry points and the virus stopped completely.

[mackers]

But they say the vaccine at best is only 95% effective (I doubt it's even close to that). NZ clearly have a near 100% success with their quarantine laws, and the country has been covid free for months (bar 1 or 2 cases). So their methods are much more effective than any vaccine will be.

Heard an Irishwoman in NZ say there's a 7/8 week wait to book a quarantine hotel, and it costs $3000 per adult. So let's face it, international travel as we knew is finished.

If I was from NZ, I'd be more than happy with what they're doing. Everywhere is opened, economy going well, except international tourism, which is a small price price to pay knowing people are stopped at entry points and the virus stopped completely.

There's no reason to doubt that the vaccine is close to 95% effective.  There is real world data coming from Israel saying that it is 92% effective so it's there for all to see.  I'd agree that anybody in NZ would be more than happy at the minute.  That's because the vast majority of the world is a mess with Covid.  If the rest of the world rectifies itself with the vaccines and international travel starts up again your average New Zealander will get itchy feet and start to request international travel (probably in and around the next Rugby World Cup).  To say international travel as we know it is finished is OTT.  It will restart perhaps with additional measures (see post 9/11 air travel)

[bennydorano]

All Pandemics run their course, unless we're extremely unlucky so will this one. Hopefully an annual Covid jab will be all that will remain in a couple of years.

[Cunny Funt]

For the ROI according the press briefing tonight.

January deaths 1202 and 451 association outbreaks care nursing homes.   That's 41 more deaths than our previous highest month (April) although January has 1 extra day.

So far this month 195 deaths. 75 associated with outbreaks in nursing homes.

[RadioGAAGAA]

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

I've an easy fix for that.

"Hello, operator, I'm sick with covid, I need an ambulance"

"OK, whats your health number? I need to check did you get the vaccine."

"I didn't get it, its all a big pharma conspiracy"

"Ah, well, in that case, the ambulance might take quite some time to get to you - your straight to the bottom of the queue. We'll prioritise folks that followed public health advice."

[sid waddell]

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

I've an easy fix for that.

"Hello, operator, I'm sick with covid, I need an ambulance"

"OK, whats your health number? I need to check did you get the vaccine."

"I didn't get it, its all a big pharma conspiracy"

"Ah, well, in that case, the ambulance might take quite some time to get to you - your straight to the bottom of the queue. We'll prioritise folks that followed public health advice."

Much as that would be a nice gotcha, health services can't do that

[thebigfella]

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

I've an easy fix for that.

"Hello, operator, I'm sick with covid, I need an ambulance"

"OK, whats your health number? I need to check did you get the vaccine."

"I didn't get it, its all a big pharma conspiracy"

"Ah, well, in that case, the ambulance might take quite some time to get to you - your straight to the bottom of the queue. We'll prioritise folks that followed public health advice." without Bill Gates's tracking device we have no way of finding you.

Fixed that

[sid waddell]

Thought what yer man Bell from Oxford said on C4 News this evening was interesting

Very early data suggests that mixing different types of vaccines, ie. MRNA, adenovirus, protein based or whole virus vaccines - could give "a much greater breadth and depth of immune response"

Whatever that means

Says there is a lot of scope for further experimentation in this area and that it won't take a long time, such experiments take "a couple of weeks"

Really does look like the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine is pretty much a bust against the SA variant though, which is a bit shit

There was talk on the same programme that the SA variant is not that much more transmissible if at all than original Covid, but then again it's also been said that it's around 50% more transmissible

I think this South African bugger is one of the main reasons why it's definitely not just a case of vaccinate the elderly and open up

[armaghniac]

Thought what yer man Bell from Oxford said on C4 News this evening was interesting

Very early data suggests that mixing different types of vaccines, ie. MRNA, adenovirus, protein based or whole virus vaccines - could give "a much greater breadth and depth of immune response"

Whatever that means

Says there is a lot of scope for further experimentation in this area and that it won't take a long time, such experiments take "a couple of weeks"

I have an incomplete understanding of this. But I think the Oxford and Sputnik vaccines are based on other harmless or deactivated viruses which have been engeering to incorporate part of the Covid spike. The problem is that to some extent you are immune to the second shot because of the first one. Hence the experiments with Oxford and Sputnik, both work in a similar way and are cheap and easy to handle, but they use different base viruses.
It could be that some combination of these things will be the knockout. Also perhaps you could give people one shot of Oxford now and then a shot of a modified vaccine in a couple of months, having some protection in the meantime and the modification could include the SA variant.

[BennyCake]

But then there are the maybe 15-20% who will just not get it

I've an easy fix for that.

"Hello, operator, I'm sick with covid, I need an ambulance"

"OK, whats your health number? I need to check did you get the vaccine."

"I didn't get it, its all a big pharma conspiracy"

"Ah, well, in that case, the ambulance might take quite some time to get to you - your straight to the bottom of the queue. We'll prioritise folks that followed public health advice."

So if someone is having a heart attack, they don't get an ambulance if they smoke the odd fag or eat the odd burger?

Or how about...

- Hello, Mourne Rescue? I'm stuck up on Slieve Donard. I slipped and hurt my ankle, and I cant get down.
What are you wearing on your feet, big lad?
- Adidas trainers.
You can f**kin stay up there then!

[Blowitupref]

only 95% effective? Benny check the effective % for the flu each year and how effective vaccines was on previous viruses to see how remarkable it is to have one with 95%.

[imtommygunn]

That was my thinking too. Only 95% effective lol. There's no pleasing some people.

[themac_23]

only 95% effective? Benny check the effective % for the flu each year and how effective vaccines was on previous viruses to see how remarkable it is to have one with 95%.

its unreal how well they've done to get vaccines with that high a percentage, some people just want to listen to the doom and gloom, there is so much to be positive about with regards where we are at the minute. Personally I have stopped watching the news on BBC ITV or sky, they just want negativity all the time, its actually a disgrace how they get away with being so negative in a time where people need reassurance. For balance I stick on the Channel 4 news at 7 most evenings, balanced and far better put across than the other broadcasters. We're nearly there, light at the end of the tunnel, lets keep the positivity.