The Six counties European Election Thread/Poll

[bcarrier]

Ms Ferris has a shout at last seat in Munster according to tallys.

[Maguire01]

You're on the wrong thread.

[bcarrier]

See pangurban above sam.

[Roger]

Roger they will be an interesting read but bear in mind this election has had a more balanced turnout between the two sides of the community which hasn't been seen in 20 years. So if anything the results are probably going to be a more accurate reflection of how things may turn out if the referendum was held now. It would be defeated but I'm guessing SF and SDLP will probably have about 42%-44% between them. That's going to increase by 1% every couple of years which makes it about 12 years at the outside to an absolute majority (not including soft green Alliance voters). What happens then?

The figures still show a disproportionally lower turnout in unionist dominated areas.  I had a brief look at East Belfast (personal interest) and the turnout in the Short Strand was in the 50s which shows that the only predominantly area in the constituency that is republican / nationalist is yet again massively disproportional to all the other polling stations. East Belfast ended up at 38%.  Didn't really pay much attention to other constituencies but I believe this is probably reasonably representative across the constiuencies.  Look at the turnout in unionist dominated constituencies for the last referendum. An estimated 150k people came out to vote in 1998 who don't usually vote and most commentators agree this was disproportionately in unionist areas.  Leaving aside any other considerations, on the basis that unionsts seem to feel referendums important even if somewhat disengaged from the current run-of-the-mill ballix, I believe a border poll in 12 years time would show an endorsement of Northern Ireland remaining in the UK.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Babs in on tthe first count.

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

First count totals:

Greens - 15764
TUV - 66,197
Sinn Fein - 126,184
DUP - 88,346
SDLP - 78,489
UUP - 82,893
Alliance - 26,699

[Maguire01]

SDLP very unlikely then. Unless the Unionists didn't transfer between themselves.

[dec]

The only way there would have been a second nationalist seat is if SF/SDLP had split the nationalist vote very evenly.
I think the third seat will be unionist but short of a quota (maybe 105,000 - 115,000).

In that case SF/SDLP could have grabbed two seats if they both finished ahead of the second unionist but both short of the quota.

[delboy]

They mattered at the last referendum.  Any border referendum I believe they'd be out again.  Now that's just opinion but you can see it has some precendent. I suppose even commenting is now cue for a torrent of abuse, insults and aggro from some quarters.  Oh well.

Btw, I don't think SDLP will get the third seat but this time last week I would have thought they would. One thing for sure is that Monday's results will be an interesting read.   

Roger they will be an interesting read but bear in mind this election has had a more balanced turnout between the two sides of the community which hasn't been seen in 20 years. So if anything the results are probably going to be a more accurate reflection of how things may turn out if the referendum was held now. It would be defeated but I'm guessing SF and SDLP will probably have about 42%-44% between them. That's going to increase by 1% every couple of years which makes it about 12 years at the outside to an absolute majority (not including soft green Alliance voters). What happens then?

Steven Agnew     GRN      15,764      3.3%      +2.4%     
Jim Allister    TUV    66,197    13.7%    -    
Bairbre de Brún    SF    126,184    26%    -0.3%    Elected
Diane Dodds    DUP    88,346    18.2%    -13.8%    
Alban Maginness    SDLP    78,489    16.2%    +0.3%    
Jim Nicholson    UCUNF    82,893    17.1%    +0.5%    
Ian James Parsley    AP    26,699    5.5%    -    


Nationalists running at 42.2 %, SF down 0.3 % and SDLP up 0.3 % so no overall change in the share of the vote.

Unionists running at 49 % of the vote, up 0.4 % overall on the previous election.

Sinn fein topped the vote with 26 %, but if TUV hadn't stood and one assumes his votes were picked up by the DUP then the percentage would have been 31.9 % of the vote.

[slow corner back]

Looking at those figures the only parties to make any change were the greens up 2.4%, TUV obviously coming from nowhere and DUP dropping due to TUV rise. Other four all within 1% of where they were last time. Magennis not close enough to be elected needed another 10,000 first preference Allister will get no transfers so will not make it so Babs, Nicholson then Dodds me thinks, Dodds to fail to make quota??

[Gaoth Dobhair Abu]

Nicholson in, in second spot after third count.

[fred the red]

Will this be the end of Dodds, or will she come back bigger, stronger and mouthier than before?

[Rossfan]

Steven Agnew     GRN      15,764      3.3%      +2.4%     
Jim Allister    TUV    66,197    13.7%    -    
Bairbre de Brún    SF    126,184    26%    -0.3%    Elected
Diane Dodds    DUP    88,346    18.2%    -13.8%    
Alban Maginness    SDLP    78,489    16.2%    +0.3%    
Jim Nicholson    UCUNF    82,893    17.1%    +0.5%    
Ian James Parsley    AP    26,699    5.5%    -    

28%  of Unionists still want to return to 1922 - 1967

[delboy]

Steven Agnew     GRN      15,764      3.3%      +2.4%     
Jim Allister    TUV    66,197    13.7%    -    
Bairbre de Brún    SF    126,184    26%    -0.3%    Elected
Diane Dodds    DUP    88,346    18.2%    -13.8%    
Alban Maginness    SDLP    78,489    16.2%    +0.3%    
Jim Nicholson    UCUNF    82,893    17.1%    +0.5%    
Ian James Parsley    AP    26,699    5.5%    -    

28%  of Unionists still want to return to 1922 - 1967

What 

[fred the red]

Steven Agnew     GRN      15,764      3.3%      +2.4%     
Jim Allister    TUV    66,197    13.7%    -    
Bairbre de Brún    SF    126,184    26%    -0.3%    Elected
Diane Dodds    DUP    88,346    18.2%    -13.8%    
Alban Maginness    SDLP    78,489    16.2%    +0.3%    
Jim Nicholson    UCUNF    82,893    17.1%    +0.5%    
Ian James Parsley    AP    26,699    5.5%    -    

28%  of Unionists still want to return to 1922 - 1967

What 

66,197 votes of 66,197+88,346+82,893