Author Topic: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management  (Read 89846 times)

trailer

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1185 on: May 01, 2021, 11:15:59 AM »
In 2019, Donaldson had a 6500 majority over Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley. Sf and sdlp had almost 3000 votes between them, so id expect to see a lot of tactical voting in favour of Alliance there the next time around.

You would expect the dup to shed votes to both the uup and alliance but will they shed enough to lose out, could be the most interesting constituencey next time around.

Agreed this will be so interesting next time round.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1186 on: May 01, 2021, 12:44:00 PM »
Yeah just reading some things here you would think they have gone but sadly not.

I would agree with most of what you say. The likes of Ballymena area or Wilson country(east antrim?) they probably just aren't going to lose seats. East Belfast and North Belfast are big variables for them. If they lost all of Belfast altogether would be a big blow. Lagan Valley I'm not familiar enough with though thought they were winning it easy enough. I must have a look at the votes in the last elections MLA wise and see what the score was there.

If the UUP had anything about them the DUP would be in much bigger bother however unfortunately the UUP don't have much about them at all these days.
I wonder if wee Robin Swann will have another dart at leading the UUP.  Doug Beattie seems a better bet than your boy Aiken too.

Beattie seems an alright sort. Swann is either the best in the world for his handling of COVID or the worst in the world depending who you talk to.

Aiken seems useless. This is a massive opportunity for the uup. They are doing nothing with it. (Not just foster resigning but the way brexit etc is panning out).

Beattie and swann are really likable, but would that be perceived as soft at a time like this

Angelo

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1187 on: May 01, 2021, 01:44:44 PM »
Do people really see unionists moving from Jeffrey to a girl called Sorcha?
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armaghniac

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1188 on: May 01, 2021, 01:56:58 PM »
Do people really see unionists moving from Jeffrey to a girl called Sorcha?

For years, they voted for an Arlene.
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smelmoth

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1189 on: May 01, 2021, 02:00:54 PM »
Do people really see unionists as misogynists? (Apparently some are female)

Do people really see unionists as sectarian?

smelmoth

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1190 on: May 01, 2021, 02:05:40 PM »
Yeah just reading some things here you would think they have gone but sadly not.

I would agree with most of what you say. The likes of Ballymena area or Wilson country(east antrim?) they probably just aren't going to lose seats. East Belfast and North Belfast are big variables for them. If they lost all of Belfast altogether would be a big blow. Lagan Valley I'm not familiar enough with though thought they were winning it easy enough. I must have a look at the votes in the last elections MLA wise and see what the score was there.

If the UUP had anything about them the DUP would be in much bigger bother however unfortunately the UUP don't have much about them at all these days.
I wonder if wee Robin Swann will have another dart at leading the UUP.  Doug Beattie seems a better bet than your boy Aiken too.

Beattie seems an alright sort. Swann is either the best in the world for his handling of COVID or the worst in the world depending who you talk to.

Aiken seems useless. This is a massive opportunity for the uup. They are doing nothing with it. (Not just foster resigning but the way brexit etc is panning out).

Beattie and swann are really likable, but would that be perceived as soft at a time like this

Swann is a decent fella. Thatís coming through now even it didnít always.

Beattie is certainly not hard line in religious, sectarian or wider politics. There is a bit of the Johnny Mercer about him. A bit myopic on the historical enquiry side of things
« Last Edit: May 01, 2021, 06:21:16 PM by smelmoth »

Sportacus

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1191 on: May 01, 2021, 02:29:28 PM »
Poots is odds on - a shift to even more hardline policies and the Protocol will be the battle cry for the Assembly Election. It may work for the next while as they canít collectively come to terms with the Irish Sea Border, but long term they lose their garden centre voters to Alliance and stiffer Unionists back to the UUP, even though they are seriously short of talent.

Itís last stand stuff.

Main Street

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1192 on: May 01, 2021, 02:56:43 PM »
Isn't it so that the new DUP leader will have to gain SF support before taking up the First Minister position?  if so, the chances of that happening are very low and a new election beckons.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1193 on: May 01, 2021, 03:09:13 PM »
Isn't it so that the new DUP leader will have to gain SF support before taking up the First Minister position?  if so, the chances of that happening are very low and a new election beckons.

SF will support it. The gravy train depends on it. It's a game

armaghniac

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1194 on: May 01, 2021, 04:08:02 PM »
Isn't it so that the new DUP leader will have to gain SF support before taking up the First Minister position?  if so, the chances of that happening are very low and a new election beckons.

I wouldn't think so. The model of the FM and DFM was that they represented their side of the house, they might require a majority in the Assembly, but I doubt if SF could veto and appointment.
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Rossfan

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1195 on: May 01, 2021, 04:17:48 PM »
Does it not require a majority of both Unionists AND Nationalists?
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Angelo

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1196 on: May 01, 2021, 04:27:31 PM »
Isn't it so that the new DUP leader will have to gain SF support before taking up the First Minister position?  if so, the chances of that happening are very low and a new election beckons.

SF will support it. The gravy train depends on it. It's a game

Is MLA really such a gravy train?

£55k plus expenses which is the equivalent of Ä63k. Personally I'd never do the job for love or money

Down south the salary for a TD is Ä98k.

What I note is that an awful lot of MLAs have stepped away from the job shortly into it. If you look at SF in recent years - Megan Fearon, Ian Milne and Michaela Boyle are three very recent examples of MLAs who resigned their seat to step away from politics or go back to taking a council seat which would tell me that a lot of them don't really feel the pay justifies the pressure and attention you are under.





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GetOverTheBar

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1197 on: May 01, 2021, 04:30:53 PM »
Does it not require a majority of both Unionists AND Nationalists?

The assembly must pass the new FM

Rossfan

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1198 on: May 01, 2021, 04:47:38 PM »
By a simple majority without need for majority of both Nationalists and Unionists?
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nrico2006

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Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Arlene overboard!
« Reply #1199 on: May 01, 2021, 06:02:14 PM »
Swann and Beattie are the two MLAs that don't seem to talk dung or try to antagonise. Pity there wasn't more like them.
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