Feile an Phobail

[Rossfan]

Last I heard there were loads of jobs in the *26 Cos and people get pensions here too.
*A record number at work according to the News today with up to 400,000 of the 2.5m in Public or semi State jobs.
Public health waiting lists are about the same pro rata in the 6 as the 26 - nothing for either area to be proud of.
When the new All Ireland entity comes residents of the 6 Cos will still enjoy the right to either Irish or British (or Anglo Welsh if the majority of  Scots realise Independence is nirmal) nationality.
12th July would of course be an All Ireland Bank Holiday  and the monument in Crossmaglen will have Arlene Foster, Johnson, Truss added to it.

[Dougal Maguire]

My sons a teacher in the ROI. Pay and conditions considerably better than up here. This idea that the ROI is a worse country to live in than this artificial statelet that is being kept going through an unsustainable reliance on an inflated public sector is just absolute nonsense. A UI is going to come, sooner rather than later and if Unionists had any sense they'd be negotiating now, while they've got some degree of strength rather that after they've lost a referendum and have no bargaining tools

[imtommygunn]

As we're going to find out shortly there is neither a majority of unionists or nationalists, soft or otherwise in NI/6 counties with that trend only going in the one direction based on the age profiles of said groupings.

Unionist's hugging the east coast are oblivious to the growth in the Nationalist population around them.

Ah, I see, you're another of those Nationalists who are now into their second "Century of Wishful Thinking"!

Lets get down to basics. It doesnt matter how you count the two tribes in a census - Prods, Unioniosts, Loyalists etc or RCs, Nats, Republicans etc.

Rather its about two things, how and whether they would vote in a Referendum.

And for the former ("how"), it's not about designation, policies, economics, personalities and tactical voting etc, i.e. the usual things which influence voters in a regular election. Rather, as eg the Scottish or Brexit referenda demonstrated, it's all about Identity.

On which point, whether "Unionists" vote TUV, DUP, UUP or Alliance etc, or (increasingly) don't vote at all normally, all the evidence suggests thay they will turn out solidly in any referendum to preserve their British identity, if only from "clinging to Nurse, for fear of something worse". For remember, Unionists have only to lose once, for it to be forever. So I have no doubt that there will be a big turnout of the 1m-odd "Unionists" in any referendum, and I am equally confident that very few, if any, would consider voting for a UI.

As for the latter ("whether" they vote ), while I'm confident of the Unionist turnout, I'm not nearly so worried about the Nationalist turnout. Now don't get me wrong, when it comes to the secrecy of the voting booth, those Nationalists who do turn out will so0lidly vote for a UI, rather than remain.

But I genuinely believe that a proportion of Nationalists sufficient to lose the vote for a UI simply will not bother to turn out, since the status quo means Nationalists can continue to have their "NI cake" while also eating their "UI cake". That is, if staying in NI, they get to keep their more affordable housing, NHS, government jobs/pensions etc. While thanks to the GFA, they would still have their Irish (and EU) identity etc. (Think eg Ciara Mageean, or any number of "Nationalist" boxers competing in both the Commonwealth Games for NI, and in the Europeans for Ireland)

Which explains why when polled, so many "Nationalists", especially the younger ones, now tend to identify themselves as "Northern Irish", rather than "Irish". (Think eg Rory McIlroy, Michael ONeill or any number of young "Nationalist" soccer players who are quite happy to turn out for NI teams.).

Meaning that even if the new census indicates a "Nationalist" majority, I genuinely don't consider that this poses any real threat to the Union in a referendum and why I would actually call SF's bluff, in their regular, but embarrassingly half-hearted, calls for a border poll.

Of course I don't expect many (any?) on this board to agree with my reasoning - some won't even acknowledge it - but if it were within my gift to call a referendum, I'd say: "Bring it on!" 

Some of what you write I would say is wrong but a referendum wouldn't be won now or for a while because there is no great plan. It will be won in the future but in my view quite a while into the future. Michael O'Neill probably wouldn't vote the way you think he would and likewise for a lot of ones in the NI team. That kind of thing I would imagine, like the athletics, is a career thing.

Unfortunately the union isn't going away any time soon but the DUP have expedited the talk of the death of it by many many years. The biggest asset to nationalism here is the DUP.

[general_lee]

TLDR: Unionists who consider voting for a UI are no longer Unionists but Nationalists (who want to have their NI cake AND UI cake) won't bother voting but will remain Nationalists.

[Evil Genius]

It is true that there will be a swathe of Unionists who if presented with the right case for a UI may well abandon their Unionist principles...

Sorry, but it not "true" as in established fact, rather it is your opinion.

And while I'm not sure how many constitute a swathe", in my direct experience of that community, they are very few indeed.

Further, it is my opinion - backed up consistently by polling - that however many of these persuadable Unionists there are, they are outnumbered by the "swathe" of Nationalists who would not bother to vote, or might even vote to remain ("cake and eat it").

Moreover, as I've tried to argue, for Unionists it's not even a question of "principles", but of Identity. And I really cannot see many Unionists abandoning that identity lightly.

In fact, if a Yes vote to leave the UK could even remotely risk entering a united Ireland where SF could be the largest single party, then I don't think any would take that chance.

(And if people on this forum have a problem with understanding that last point, just remember that your average Unionist holds SF in the same regard as your average Nationalist holds the DUP.)

[Evil Genius]

Yes soft unionists is probably wrong, a protestant voter who wouldn't vote for UUP/DUP/TUV is probably best..

People vote - or don't vote - in regular elections for a whole host of reasons. But that is very different from a Referendum likw this.

Look at Scotland, for instance. At the time of their vote, the SNP was riding high as the biggest party in the country, indeed the party of government. Yet the referendum was lost, since even some people who voted SNP for a variety of reasons could not all be relied on to come out and vote "Yes".

While if you look at the Brexit referendum, many people in constituencies with strong Labour or LibDem representatiion (i.e. Remain parties) , came out to vote Leave. Indeed, there were people who had never voted in an ordinary election who came out to vote, with a majority of them for Leave, which swung the vote.

I personally have little doubt that very many "Garden Centre Unionists" would make the effort to get out and vote in a Referendum, especially if they see SF stoking up the rhetoric on the other side. Ditto Alliance Party voters in predominantly Unionist* areas.


* - That is, 90% of them. 

[yellowcard]

You should tell all of this to some of your politicians who are being led by the hand by loyalists when it comes to the protocol. They don't want the 'other group' in the middle who might be persuaded either way to have a 'NI cake' and a 'UI cake'. They want the full fat Brexit cake complete with all of the warts.

You personally might welcome a border poll but for the vast majority of unionists it's fingers in the ear time and they won't even countenance mature debate on the issue.

[Milltown Row2]

Like I've said I don't see any result in a referendum being anything other than the status quo, I can't see it in my life time..

I've mentioned the Scottish one before and if held again I don't see that changing either..

Where I live though doesn't change your identity, if there is a push (fronted by SF) it will be defeated well enough imo

[Evil Genius]

[EG is] overselling it.  And by more than a little.

Firstly, the unionists that we'd be talking about are more than likely the Alliance voting type, whose unionist identity, whilst definitely relevant, is well down the pecking order in terms of things they hold dear.

On the contrary, Unionist voters who vote Alliance are just as likely to be entirely comfortable with their British identity as those who vote for overtly Unionsit parties, since they aren't "spooked" by the AP's efforts to ride both constitutional horses at once.

Or they are actively turned off by Unionist politicians, but living in predominantly Unionist areas, as the great majority do, means that they aren't persuaded to vote for an overtly Unionist party in order to keep SF/SDLP out.

Meaning that if you're looking to Allaince voters from a Unionist background/area to vote for a UI, then imo you're clutching at straws. And I say that as a (proudly British) Unionist who has never given the DUP so much as a 10th preference, but has voted Alliance, amongst others.

Secondly, to say they'd have to "abandon" their British identity in a UI is nonsense.  There are many nationalists currently living in the UK who have not abandoned anything.  If anything, confidence in their identity has only grown in the past couple of decades.  I'd suggest that any unionist who feels the need to abandon their identity in a hypothetical UI, wasn't that bothered about their identity to start with

How can you continue to be British and a Unionist, in a United Ireland i.e somewhere which is neither British nor part of the Union?

Were we ever to have a UI, then the game would be up for Unionism. And considering how that British/Unionist identity has resisted eg countless rebellions, Partition, decades of severe civil strife, two world wars and the rise of the Celtic Tiger etc, over hundreds of years, what makes you think they're any less attached to their history andi dentity than, say, Irish nationalists, who have also faced all those challenges from the other side of the fence?

And finally, with regard to his assertion that nationalists need to offer "reasons to join a UI" – there is some truth in this.  But with the current behaviour of the DUP over here and the British govt pumping turds into rivers and displaying ever more fascist, inward-looking and corrupt behaviours, the reasons offered to get the fcuk out of this mess don't need to be particularly compelling

Hang on.

Those examples of (negative) behaviour by the Brits/DUP etc are not the same as the (positive) inducements from Irish Nationalism needed to persuade Ulster Unionists to abandon their dearly held identity and throw their lot in with a UI.

Instead Unionists will just roll their eyes at the former, while still waiting for the latter, in the same way as Nationalists roll their eyes when their own representatives act the maggot, while ignoring the need to come up with the latter.

As you appear to do.

[Evil Genius]

Last I heard there were loads of jobs in the *26 Cos and people get pensions here too.
*A record number at work according to the News today with up to 400,000 of the 2.5m in Public or semi State jobs.
Public health waiting lists are about the same pro rata in the 6 as the 26 - nothing for either area to be proud of.

My sons a teacher in the ROI. Pay and conditions considerably better than up here. This idea that the ROI is a worse country to live in than this artificial statelet that is being kept going through an unsustainable reliance on an inflated public sector is just absolute nonsense.

Nowhere have I denied the clear economic advantages which ROI has over NI. Rather my point was that if you're eg a middle class Nationalist in your 40's, with a secure Government/public sector job with indexed pension to match, (and maybe your spouse the same), 15 years still to go on your mortgage and a couple of kids soon to go to University etc, are you really going to risk all that for a UI which at best would struggle to subsidise the 6 counties and at worst could provoke another civil war?

When the new All Ireland entity comes residents of the 6 Cos will still enjoy the right to either Irish or British (or Anglo Welsh if the majority of  Scots realise Independence is nirmal) nationality.
12th July would of course be an All Ireland Bank Holiday  and the monument in Crossmaglen will have Arlene Foster, Johnson, Truss added to it.

A UI is going to come, sooner rather than later and if Unionists had any sense they'd be negotiating now, while they've got some degree of strength rather that after they've lost a referendum and have no bargaining tools

Re your bold, there is no sign even of a referendum, never mind a 'Yes' vote, no matter how much you wish for it. Which is just another reason why Unionists don't have to worry about it.

And as I think I've mentioned on here before, it's not just me who says that, but the likes of Professor Brendan O'Leary, a noted psephologist who has worked for both the British Labour Party and SF, no less. Indeed a few years back he disclosed that with the Nationalist vote in NI having plateaued at around the 42% mark at the beginning of the centrury, he could perceive no prospect of a United Ireland in the foreseeable future. Consequently while he characterised a UI as "desirable", he thought it by no means "inevitable".

The amusing thing being that he made this disclosure from the platform of a SF fundraiser in New York, much to the discomforture of the assembled company, including one Gerry Adams!

Of course the party's clean-up squad immediately sprung into action to remove all evidence of same, but not before (I think) an Irish Times reporter in attendance had taken notes! 

https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~boleary/website/Welcome.html

[Evil Genius]

...  a referendum wouldn't be won now or for a while because there is no great plan.

Why is there no great plan? I mean, Irish Nationalism has had 100 years to come up with one*, yet there is none in sight.

Or maybe you're waiting for Unionism to come up with one for you? 

* - Unless you consider the IRA's (failed/abandoned) attempts to bomb us into a UI somehow consitituted a "plan"....

Unfortunately the union isn't going away any time soon but the DUP have expedited the talk of the death of it by many many years. The biggest asset to nationalism here is the DUP.

No doubt.

Fortunately we've got an antidote.

https://www.sinnfein.ie/

[Franko]

[EG is] overselling it.  And by more than a little.

Firstly, the unionists that we'd be talking about are more than likely the Alliance voting type, whose unionist identity, whilst definitely relevant, is well down the pecking order in terms of things they hold dear.

On the contrary, Unionist voters who vote Alliance are just as likely to be entirely comfortable with their British identity as those who vote for overtly Unionsit parties, since they aren't "spooked" by the AP's efforts to ride both constitutional horses at once.

Or they are actively turned off by Unionist politicians, but living in predominantly Unionist areas, as the great majority do, means that they aren't persuaded to vote for an overtly Unionist party in order to keep SF/SDLP out.

Meaning that if you're looking to Allaince voters from a Unionist background/area to vote for a UI, then imo you're clutching at straws. And I say that as a (proudly British) Unionist who has never given the DUP so much as a 10th preference, but has voted Alliance, amongst others.

Secondly, to say they'd have to "abandon" their British identity in a UI is nonsense.  There are many nationalists currently living in the UK who have not abandoned anything.  If anything, confidence in their identity has only grown in the past couple of decades.  I'd suggest that any unionist who feels the need to abandon their identity in a hypothetical UI, wasn't that bothered about their identity to start with

How can you continue to be British and a Unionist, in a United Ireland i.e somewhere which is neither British nor part of the Union?

Were we ever to have a UI, then the game would be up for Unionism. And considering how that British/Unionist identity has resisted eg countless rebellions, Partition, decades of severe civil strife, two world wars and the rise of the Celtic Tiger etc, over hundreds of years, what makes you think they're any less attached to their history andi dentity than, say, Irish nationalists, who have also faced all those challenges from the other side of the fence?

And finally, with regard to his assertion that nationalists need to offer "reasons to join a UI" – there is some truth in this.  But with the current behaviour of the DUP over here and the British govt pumping turds into rivers and displaying ever more fascist, inward-looking and corrupt behaviours, the reasons offered to get the fcuk out of this mess don't need to be particularly compelling

Hang on.

Those examples of (negative) behaviour by the Brits/DUP etc are not the same as the (positive) inducements from Irish Nationalism needed to persuade Ulster Unionists to abandon their dearly held identity and throw their lot in with a UI.

Instead Unionists will just roll their eyes at the former, while still waiting for the latter, in the same way as Nationalists roll their eyes when their own representatives act the maggot, while ignoring the need to come up with the latter.

As you appear to do.

1. With all due respect, someone like yourself is not among the target audience for this EG.  You may have thrown an odd vote Alliance's way when it didn't really matter, but in your own words, you are "proudly British".  I know from direct experience that there are plenty of Unionists who are most definitely not "proudly British" at the moment.  And the behaviour of their so called leaders means that this cohort grows by the day.

2. You can't continue to be unionist.  Like you say, the game is up.  But you said that people would have to give up their British identity.  That would certainly not be the case.  (Unless of course, they wanted to...)

3. I'm not sure you get it.  The masterclass in self-harm that the UK Gov't (and it's DUP lapdogs) have been engaged in for the past decade is creating these inducements faster than nationalists can point them out!  The ace in the pack for remaining part of the UK is the NHS.  These lunatics would have it sold off quicker than you could dial 999.

Anyway, that all said, I'll indulge you with some "inducements"  Currently, Ireland betters the UK in the following areas;
Life Expectancy
GDP/capita
Social security (welfare) support
Infant Mortality rates
National debt levels (currently running a slight budget surplus)
Current economic growth rate
% risk of poverty
Industrial productivity/capita
Murder rate

Now this is far from an exhaustive list.  And it's for the UK as a whole.  You can imagine how the figures for the North might compare.   But, as stated earlier, people like yourself don't care - as, by your own admission, the fleg is what it's all about for you.

No amount of inducements will convince you and those like you... but that doesn't matter.

[weareros]

Don't see how a border poll can be denied once nationalist vote exceeds unionist vote. That may be 42% to 41% with another 17% or so designated other. But Alliance transfers went more nationalist than unionist so it would be against spirt of GFA if a border poll was denied when nationalist surpasses unionist. That could happen very soon forcing both London and Dublin's hand. The criteria was never outlined but nationalist vote surpassing unionist should be a straightforward reason. I would have also thought the recent Sunday Times Poll that has unity at 52% and UK at 44% if held in 15 years another strong indicator that those planning to vote UI in a future poll is stronger than those planning to maintain Union. The fact that several recent polls have put Union below 50% when people know what living in UK is like also shows a worrying decline if you are a Unionist.

[Franko]

Last I heard there were loads of jobs in the *26 Cos and people get pensions here too.
*A record number at work according to the News today with up to 400,000 of the 2.5m in Public or semi State jobs.
Public health waiting lists are about the same pro rata in the 6 as the 26 - nothing for either area to be proud of.

My sons a teacher in the ROI. Pay and conditions considerably better than up here. This idea that the ROI is a worse country to live in than this artificial statelet that is being kept going through an unsustainable reliance on an inflated public sector is just absolute nonsense.

Nowhere have I denied the clear economic advantages which ROI has over NI. Rather my point was that if you're eg a middle class Nationalist in your 40's, with a secure Government/public sector job with indexed pension to match, (and maybe your spouse the same), 15 years still to go on your mortgage and a couple of kids soon to go to University etc, are you really going to risk all that for a UI which at best would struggle to subsidise the 6 counties and at worst could provoke another civil war?

When the new All Ireland entity comes residents of the 6 Cos will still enjoy the right to either Irish or British (or Anglo Welsh if the majority of  Scots realise Independence is nirmal) nationality.
12th July would of course be an All Ireland Bank Holiday  and the monument in Crossmaglen will have Arlene Foster, Johnson, Truss added to it.

A UI is going to come, sooner rather than later and if Unionists had any sense they'd be negotiating now, while they've got some degree of strength rather that after they've lost a referendum and have no bargaining tools

Re your bold, there is no sign even of a referendum, never mind a 'Yes' vote, no matter how much you wish for it. Which is just another reason why Unionists don't have to worry about it.

And as I think I've mentioned on here before, it's not just me who says that, but the likes of Professor Brendan O'Leary, a noted psephologist who has worked for both the British Labour Party and SF, no less. Indeed a few years back he disclosed that with the Nationalist vote in NI having plateaued at around the 42% mark at the beginning of the centrury, he could perceive no prospect of a United Ireland in the foreseeable future. Consequently while he characterised a UI as "desirable", he thought it by no means "inevitable".

The amusing thing being that he made this disclosure from the platform of a SF fundraiser in New York, much to the discomforture of the assembled company, including one Gerry Adams!

Of course the party's clean-up squad immediately sprung into action to remove all evidence of same, but not before (I think) an Irish Times reporter in attendance had taken notes! 

https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~boleary/website/Welcome.html

  hard to know what way these 6 people would vote

[Evil Genius]

You should tell all of this to some of your politicians who are being led by the hand by loyalists when it comes to the protocol. They don't want the 'other group' in the middle who might be persuaded either way to have a 'NI cake' and a 'UI cake'. They want the full fat Brexit cake complete with all of the warts.

Whether you're a Unionist who rages at the Protocol, or supports it, or merely despairs at the whole fiasco, it isn't going to change how you will vote in a referendum.

For as I keep saying, it is about Identity, not Issues.

You personally might welcome a border poll but for the vast majority of unionists it's fingers in the ear time and they won't even countenance mature debate on the issue.

Whether they want to countenance a poll or not is not relevant, the point being that they won't have to.

After all it must be for Nationalists to demonstrate why there should be one, yet they're not even campaigning for it.

And I don't consider eg the usual desultory and ritualised calls by SF at some tired old Republican commemoration to constitute a "plan", never mind a "campaign".