Tyrone v Kerry - All-Ireland SF 2021

Started by RedHand88, July 31, 2021, 05:56:14 PM

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Who will win?

Tyrone by 1-3
Tyrone by 4+
Kerry by 1-3
Kerry by 4+

RedHand88

Quote from: seafoid on August 30, 2021, 05:20:57 PM
This must count as the most significant Tyrone win in a decade.

It really does feel like it here. It is nice to be able to throw off the age old "haven't beaten Kerry/Dublin/Mayo in the championship since 2008" mantra.

FearAnFhírinne

Fair play to Tyrone  - I genuinely didn't think they would be able to recover sufficiently to challenge Kerry, but they certainly did.
I was also genuinely surprised by the number of Kerry players going down with Cramp late in the game in start contrast to Tyrone.
Don't understand how the odds aren't closer between the finalists. I don't see Mayo as 4/6 favourites and Tyrone at 6/5 to lift the cup, I really think this should be a lot closer, but a lot of that is going to be based on where the money has gone, and I'd expect it to change in the run up to the final.

CK_Redhand

#1277
Quote from: FearAnFhírinne on August 30, 2021, 06:05:56 PM
Fair play to Tyrone  - I genuinely didn't think they would be able to recover sufficiently to challenge Kerry, but they certainly did.
I was also genuinely surprised by the number of Kerry players going down with Cramp late in the game in start contrast to Tyrone.
Don't understand how the odds aren't closer between the finalists. I don't see Mayo as 4/6 favourites and Tyrone at 6/5 to lift the cup, I really think this should be a lot closer, but a lot of that is going to be based on where the money has gone, and I'd expect it to change in the run up to the final.
That's an implied probability of .575 vs .425 which is fairly close. Bookies spread is 4.4% BTW.

hoynevalley

Quote from: FearAnFhírinne on August 30, 2021, 06:05:56 PM
Fair play to Tyrone  - I genuinely didn't think they would be able to recover sufficiently to challenge Kerry, but they certainly did.
I was also genuinely surprised by the number of Kerry players going down with Cramp late in the game in start contrast to Tyrone.
Don't understand how the odds aren't closer between the finalists. I don't see Mayo as 4/6 favourites and Tyrone at 6/5 to lift the cup, I really think this should be a lot closer, but a lot of that is going to be based on where the money has gone, and I'd expect it to change in the run up to the final.

Very strange to see Kerry lads cramping.  Peter Keane let slip before Munster final they were training 7 months.  Did they burn themselves out? No team has matched Mayo fitness.  Incredible do building that fitness in 4 months. The WFH has been big boost to Mayo.

nrico2006

I wonder how long Tyrone will persevere with Morgan hitting 45's and far out frees.  I would love to see his success percentage as he seems to miss 1 out of every 2/3.  Could have been costly against Monaghan and again yesterday.  Shouldn't be too hard to get a sharpshooter from a county the size of Tyrone.
'To the extreme I rock a mic like a vandal, light up a stage and wax a chump like a candle.'

Jim Bob

Quote from: nrico2006 on August 30, 2021, 08:13:07 PM
I wonder how long Tyrone will persevere with Morgan hitting 45's and far out frees.  I would love to see his success percentage as he seems to miss 1 out of every 2/3.  Could have been costly against Monaghan and again yesterday.  Shouldn't be too hard to get a sharpshooter from a county the size of Tyrone.

I think you are being generous with his success percentage. In 45s I reckon he has missed many more then he has scored ..over 50% I'd guess

Wildweasel74

Training 7/months, no team should have to more than 3 months leading to championship, u only burn players out, for what 5 or 6 games of fball at the most. Teams over train as amateurs. If the game was professional there only be a 2 month training lead in time like American fball or soccer.

thewobbler

Players don't cramp in such games from a lack of fitness. They cramp because no matter how long, hard or smart you train, it's impossible to replicate a scenario whereby every single run you make, decision you make, turn you make, pass you make is done under exceptional physical and mental pressure.

highorlow

Fair play to Tyrone, I did fancy ye.

Final will be down to the midfield battle.
They get momentum, they go mad, here they go

Ball Hopper

#1284
Quote from: Ball Hopper on August 19, 2021, 06:03:13 AM
Quote from: trueblue1234 on August 17, 2021, 10:37:19 PM
Is there many Kerry posters left on here? Ball Hopper and??? Kerry Mike and Mike Sheehy long gone.

I'd say I'm on my own here, but don't post as often these days.  I have, however, seen nearly all the games this year and am looking forward to a great semi-final.  I'd say Kerry are looking to win in an old-fashioned shoot-out.  It might resemble the 1980 semi-final, 4-15 to 4-10, only 5 points of a win - but there was ever only going to be one winner.

Gavin Whyte and Conor McKenna could battle each other in some serious speed-work up and down one wing.


Cathal McShane, if near full fitness, could take Matt Connor's Offaly role from 1980.

How will Tyrone handle Paudie Clifford?  David Clifford has taken quite the fall from Best on Planet to Second in Your Own House, but will still cause problems.  Sean O'Shea will convert every free plus another few from play...but I think Paul Geaney scoring goals is the key.   Stopping the other three from feeding him is the challenge.  The Kerry forwards are very adept at close passing in very congested quarters before someone finally has room to swing a leg at it and it goes over the bar - Killian Spillane gets his few points this way in each game.

The Kerry corner backs, O'Beaglaoich and Tom O'Sullivan are well able to take scores, so allowing them to wander upfield (even if chasing their man) could prove interesting on the scoreboard.

But the real difference could well be Tommy Walsh and the mark in the final 20 minutes.  He could easily pick up 5 or 6 points without breaking a sweat if the likes of Diarmuid O'Connor and other subs like Adrian Spillane can steer reasonably flighted balls toward Tommy.

Kerry backs won't dominate and will do well if they get a "reasonable" ranking - that should mean enough ball for the Kerry forwards to do their thing.

Could Kerry do the unthinkable...and use a scubadoir, expecting 4 or 5 forwards to score enough at the other end?  Uncle Pat would have some fun talking about that.

The other noticeable thing about the Kerry players is their individual strength this year - rarely is anyone knocked off the ball and all are well able to take and give a shoulder.

Areas of concern - kick out strategy never tested; can David Moran last 50-55 mins; subs in the backs very similar to starters and probably won't improve the overall defending by much - Foley/Morley, O'Beaglaoich/Paul Murphy, Breen/Sherwood are some examples.  Keeper never really tested under high balls.

I'm looking forward to a run and gun trackmeet, where whatever set of backs is less porous than the other will win.

But there will be great scoring and I'm really looking forward to the Whyte/McKenna speed challenges, especially when they get to the fourth and fifth sprint of each half.

I'll stick with the goodguys, 4-15 to 4-10.

First off, sincere congratulations to the Tyrone team - what a magnificent display and worthy winners in what was a very good game to watch.

I've put a few bits in bold above that are very close to highlighting why Tyrone won or why Kerry did not.  Mind you, I've only watched the game once, and that with my green and gold tinted glasses, so I might be off a little in some instances - feel happy to correct me if needed.

One - Gavin White left Conor for dead in their first sprint...and Conor wisely wanted no more of that and kept his energy for more fruitful instances.  Gavin continued to demonstrate his speed...but he never really got anywhere, did he?

Two - Paul Geaney to get goals...well that didn't age too well, but in the name of Jesus, Mary, Joseph and the wee donkey - how did he manage to not score when nothing but space between him and the net?  Passing the ball to a man in the square (foul one) who actually played it on the ground (foul 2).  Its rare to commit 2 fouls in one play with no opponent within yards.  O'Brien looked like he wanted a diving header, which at least would have changed foul number 2.   If Paul got that goal, I think Kerry would have won.

Three - Tommy Walsh to kick handy points from marks...he had a fairly easy chance to level it at the very end, but he looked tired and worn out in his effort.  It was a poor effort, but at least he put his hand up and took the shot.  Everyone else was hiding.  That's where the real men stand up.  Fair play to him.

Four - Can Kerry backs get a "reasonable" ranking?  I'd say they failed the test.  They were certainly the poorer set of defenders, but they didn't need to be great - reasonable would have been enough.  This unit failed miserably on the third goal...it was a midfielder contesting (loose use of the term) in a not very different play that won the game for Cork last year.

Five - scubadoir.  Maybe not needed, but a defender facing the ball at least for that third goal.

Six - area of concern...keeper should have contested ball for third goal maybe?  By way of comparison, Morgan had one high ball come in to him and he got there in plenty time and took out David Clifford in the process...that's how it's done.  David Moran was brilliant and the only call the Kerry management got right was calling him ashore when he was done.  And the Kerry subs did not contribute at all...too much like for like...backs not as physical as their direct opponents and Killian Spillane did not score, but he made a hero out of Peter Harte with a blockdown that Spillane should have punched over.  To make matters worse, the knock Harte took required medical attention that ate up time on black card number 2.  And keeper never tested under high ball until the ball came in for the third goal - even if it was a shot for a point, Shane Ryan should still have been dictating Kerry's response, if not taking charge himself and racing out to punch the ball away from a forward who was standing still.

Seven - and the scoreline at the end.  Tyrone had three goal chances, and took all three.  Nothing was forced, take your gifted opportunity and carry on.  Kerry were aware of their failings up to 2021 in the goal-scoring department and tried to fix it in one go.  But goals were never on - Tyrone backs never allowed enough space for a controlled shot and there were no wide spaces on the field for Kerry players to run into.  It's hard to imagine it was the same size field that Cork full back and half back lines gave up so much space in the hurling six days prior.  Tyrone's 3-14 wasn't too far off the 4-10 I was giving them, even if a good portion was from Kerry turnovers and flat-out poor play.  Kerry needed goals, created only once chance and should have opted for points on up to five other occasions, so I'll be generous to them and say at least 1-2 was left behind. 

So there you have it...the Kerry goalscorer I predicted didn't show up overall and missed a sitter.  Tyrone were very good - their play was so even throughout the field, with everybody playing hard and focused - but never out of control.   I suppose the "controlled aggression" of the noughties is back and is definitely a key in winning games.  Thought the black cards were harsh enough and the game was played in the proper spirit. 

David Clifford continues to be worth the price of admission alone - such a beautiful kicker - and Sean O'Shea was well marshalled with only one point from play.  David Moran and Paul Murphy also excelled, although I must wonder about Murphy's contribution to the number 6 position.  Thought Tyrone could have exploited him and Kerry with more direct runs up the wings and transferring the ball to the middle for the last 40 yards, rather than trying to come up the middle from a midfield launching pad.

Bottom line is Tyrone played exceptionally well and deserved their win.  Kerry could have snuck it, but it would not have been a fair reflection on the performance.

Hope all the Tyrone posters celebrate well and safely and I hope to make the next battle.

By the way, we can expect David Clifford to be posting in the Daddies thread soon, as he and his partner welcomed a baby boy to the Kingdom some time after the game.  Corner forward on the minor team of 2038 nailed on already - no expectations at all, lad.  I'm sure you all will join me in wishing hearty congrats from us all to him, Mum and baby.


rrhf

Fair play Ball Hopper, it was a tough one to lose. I think it is a classic case of the vanquished receiving too much criticism. It was an even game, a ding dong battle, that could have went either way.  Kerry had some great performances most noticably for the full back line, and Moran and Clifford till those races were won.  A few lads hid but that happens sometimes.  It was breathtakingly close. I also felt Kerry showed great character after Tyrone established their match winning lead.  I feel Tyrone need to improve substantially in the ff and midfield line to win against a tough tackling Mayo. Old moores almanac supposedly has predicted a Mayo win in 2021. Forget the all ireland final hang ups Mayo were deemed to have, this is a new Mayo team, on the back of their greatest ever win. They will be looking to kick down one last door, and to me the game is very much a fascinating 50/50. Early settlement of the players will make a huge difference, but I expect it to come down to the last 10. I also expect Tyrone to be very wary of letting Mayo build up a lead and a cagier battle. There is so much at stake here. To me it has the feeling of the 03 final, tense, tough and will come down to a single moment...

imtommygunn

Exactly to the criticism part. So much criticism for a team who lost by one point.

gallsman

With all the talk of cramp, was there any word on what happened Clifford? Commentary kept referring to cramp but it happened after Morgan went through him (completely fairly) and connected, I think, with his hip. I had assumed dead leg but that didn't come up at all in any of the discussion of it.

Hound

Excellent analysis BH.

Regarding Tommy Walsh. He always gets built up as a super sub / gamechanger, especially the last few years. Clearly getting built up like that is not his fault, but has ever delivered on this? Has he ever been a successful gamechanger?

I might be putting too much emphasis on recency bias, given his miss v Tyrone and his failure to clear that final high ball v Cork last year.

Halfquarter

Quote from: gallsman on August 31, 2021, 11:06:34 AM
With all the talk of cramp, was there any word on what happened Clifford? Commentary kept referring to cramp but it happened after Morgan went through him (completely fairly) and connected, I think, with his hip. I had assumed dead leg but that didn't come up at all in any of the discussion of it.

When he was sitting in the stand , he had an ice pack on his thigh, so I'd say he got a clip going for the ball with Morgan.