26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

screenexile

Quote from: Dougal Maguire on February 09, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Quote from: screenexile on February 09, 2020, 10:32:15 PM
I still don't get the Healy Rae thing!

Fair play to Sinn Fein but I really do think this is a protest vote and won't last too long.

They should make hay while the sun shines though the next few weeks will be interesting FG &FF won't want another election quickly as Sinn Fein will nail them with more candidates standing. Interesting tones ahead in the short to medium term!
You don't get the Healy Rea thing?? Its a kiddies picnic in comparison with the Michael Lowry thing.

I'll admit I'm not as familiar with Lowry as the Healy Rea's... gombeenism!!

fearbrags

Quote from: screenexile on February 09, 2020, 11:21:09 PM
Quote from: Dougal Maguire on February 09, 2020, 11:07:57 PM
Quote from: screenexile on February 09, 2020, 10:32:15 PM

I still don't get the Healy Rae thing!

Fair play to Sinn Fein but I really do think this is a protest vote and won't last too long.

They should make hay while the sun shines though the next few weeks will be interesting FG &FF won't want another election quickly as Sinn Fein will nail them with more candidates standing. Interesting tones ahead in the short to medium term!
You don't get the Healy Rea thing?? Its a kiddies picnic in comparison with the Michael Lowry thing.

I'll admit I'm not as familiar with Lowry as the Healy Rea's... gombeenism!!
Healy Rea's I think have some good  traits  But  Lowry a Born p***k
Lets  say a  p***k from  the start basically stole a good mans company a man that was very good to him  and treated him like a son  . I worked a longside Butler Refrigeration on their last project for Dunnes  and remember well how this went down

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/links-with-dunne-date-to-the-1970s-1.111474


Main Street

#842
Quote from: screenexile on February 09, 2020, 10:32:15 PM
I still don't get the Healy Rae thing!

Fair play to Sinn Fein but I really do think this is a protest vote and won't last too long.

They should make hay while the sun shines though the next few weeks will be interesting FG &FF won't want another election quickly as Sinn Fein will nail them with more candidates standing. Interesting tones ahead in the short to medium term!
Siin Fein added 9 TDs in 2012,  added another 9 TDs in 2016 and probably add on another 9 TDs in 2020
That's some consistent slow burn protest vote you're talking about. The 16 year long protest vote, the slowest hatch protest vote on record.

armaghniac

I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Rossfan

10  and 11% last May, Labour 1992
Easy come easy go.....
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

magpie seanie

Quote from: Rossfan on February 09, 2020, 09:27:46 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 09, 2020, 08:56:43 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on February 09, 2020, 07:37:44 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 21, 2020, 10:24:35 AM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.

Congratulations on your new SF TD topping the poll. And your brilliant predictive powers.

I was waiting for that post to be quoted.  ;D
Spoiled by getting his fact wrong though ;)

I acknowledge I made a mistake in that Fitzmaurice topped the poll but it isn't spoiled one bit. 17.5% is a long way from 5%!!!!!!

Rossfan

Anyone can get predictions wrong as rich bookies know well.
Getting a fact wrong though seems to be a Sligo thing ;)
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

johnnycool

Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

armaghniac

Quote from: johnnycool on February 10, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.


If you promise €5 on the pension you can do that soon enough, you can even allow people get the pension at 65. If you promise more houses and better transport you cannot easily bring these things into existence quickly. You can take long term decisions that help these things, it isn't clear that this class of voter looks at the planning or long term which is why we are where we are.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

macdanger2

Quote from: johnnycool on February 10, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

They'd only be marginally smaller though which might make a difference, it'd practically be a coalition on equals

tyroneman

Anyone recommend a good book that would give a fairly balanced view on the evolution of Irish politics from the 1900s up to date?

yellowcard

Quote from: johnnycool on February 10, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.

Hound

Quote from: yellowcard on February 10, 2020, 11:07:11 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 10, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.
The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: Hound on February 10, 2020, 11:18:49 AM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 10, 2020, 11:07:11 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 10, 2020, 10:03:54 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 01:17:49 AM
I'd say SF now have a tranche of voters that are not very loyal to them and who'll move away if they do not deliver.

and that's the way it should be as FF and FG are finding to their cost.

The days of voting for X because you Da and his Da before him voted due to a taking of sides during the Irish Civil war allowed the DeValera years of destitution, the utter domination of the Catholic Church on civic life and the likes Haughey and the cute hoorism, brown envelopes that led to the financial collapse in the noughties.

Shinners could now have a tough decision to make if FF come knocking on their door as the small partner in government always gets shafted. Martin is a poor leader and he'll bring down any partner he takes into government with him, mark my words.

But that's the thing, SF would not be the small partner in government. They will go into any potential government with a bigger % share of the vote albeit with less TD's. It will be an equal partnership which would make it even more difficult for FF to stomach and would not be the basis on which to provide a stable government.
The number of seats won is far far more important than the number of first preferences achieved. So it won't be equal. FF will have the Taoiseach and be in charge.

But SF will end up with enough seats to demand a big representation around the cabinet table. They will surely get the Health and Housing portfolios that they crave. Probably Tanaiste. Others too. The big debate I'd guess will be whether they can get Doherty into Finance, which FF will resist. I think if they agree/compromise on that portfolio, then they'll form a government, but that won't be easy.

From protest to power with no UK govt to fall back on. Squeaky bum time indeed especially in a post Brexit world.

johnnycool

Quote from: tyroneman on February 10, 2020, 11:05:11 AM
Anyone recommend a good book that would give a fairly balanced view on the evolution of Irish politics from the 1900s up to date?

Ruth Dudley Edwards.
















































;D