Race for the ARAS 2025

[JoG2]

Can I add tankie into today's chatter? Thanks

[trueblue1234]

Put the problem is if war is declared on you, then the choice for war or peace is taken out of your hands. It's the aggressor who has made the decision. You can't decide peace when you're being attacked. War has been trust upon you. You don't get to make the decision for peace. It's like the auld discussion when you go a man up in the GAA. Who do you leave in the spare role? The reality is you don't get to make that decision. The other team decides it by who they leave free. If war is delivered to your door, the choice for peace has been removed for you.

how do wars end?  no one disputing who invaded who. But there are choices about diplomatic efforts or war efforts, Europe and US choose war, and imo both through that choice and there actual war support have let the Ukrainians down.

but this thread is is about the election.. 

They end when there's an acceptable deal on the table for both sides. They can not end before that regardless of diplomatic efforts. But that's an aside. It was not Ukraine who chose war. The option of peace was removed from them by an aggressor.

But you're right this thread should be more about the election.

you are saying a deal is required before diplomatic efforts, I believe it is diplomatic efforts that lead to deals and peace.

I'm not saying that. But I am saying a war isn't over till there is an agreement. Therefore peace is not achieved until both parties accept a deal. So again the decision of war lies with one side in this.

[weareros]

Connolly's constant refrain that Ireland must use its voice to promote peace.
We seem to have a massively overinflated perception that anyone actually listens to us.

Some would say The Skibbereen Eagle started that trend in late 1800s when it warned the Tsar of Russia in an editorial that it was keeping its eye on him.

[Baile Brigín 2]

it's not as if the southern electorate have ever shown any distain for the OO before now.



 

Yeah, we constantly vote them in...

The f**k does that even mean

Electorate was probably a poor choice of word, but the point still stands as it means they've been sectarian bigots since their inception up to their peak bigotry at Drumcree and not one shiny fúck did the southern politicians or media give back then.

Yeah, that didn't happen.

[seafoid]

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/connolly-ahead-of-humphreys-in-opinion-polls-as-they-gear-up-for-on-air-debate/a61015904.html
It comes as a Business Post/Red C poll, carried out from October 1-7, indicates that Catherine Connolly is on 36%, Heather Humphreys is on 25%, and Jim Gavin was on 12%.

[Rossfan]

Major event happened 5th October that makes that poll a bit irrelevant.
Next one will be a bit more reliable.

[seafoid]

Oddschecker
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/irish-politics/next-president

Connolly 2/5
Humphreys 13/5

[Rossfan]

3/10 and 5/2 Paddypower

[weareros]

When Gavin excluded from that poll, it's still 39 to 31. That's a commanding lead to Connolly but don't knows still high.

Red C Poll: Connolly leads but
Heather gains from Gavin exit
● Former Fine Gael minister set to propose
'presidential trade missions' in strategy shift
DANIEL MURRAY
POLICY EDITOR
Heather Humphreys is the
chief beneficiary of Jim
Gavin's decision to drop out
of the presidential race – but
Catherine Connolly remains
significantly ahead, according
to new poll data.
The latest Business Post/Red
C Poll has put Connolly on
36 per cent, Humphreys on
25 per cent and Gavin on 12
per cent. Some 27 per cent of
voters were undecided.
The survey began in ad-
vance of Fianna Fáil candi-
date Gavin dropping out of
the election and continued
for several days after his with-
drawal.
As such, the impact of re-
distributing Gavin's votes to
the remaining two candidates
can be measured.
With Gavin removed and
his votes redistributed to sec-
ond preferences, it is Hum-
phreys who gets the biggest
bump – climbing to 31 per
cent.
Catherine
Connolly
36%
Heather
Humphreys
25%
Undecided
27%
Jim Gavin
12%
But this is not enough to
surpass Connolly, who is
more marginally boosted to
39 per cent.
Nevertheless, the redistri-
bution of Gavin's votes clos-
es the gap between the two
candidates in Humphreys'
favour.
When undecided voters are
removed, that becomes 56 per
cent for Connolly and 44 per
cent for Humphreys.
However, Connolly's larger
support may be vulnerable in
places, as it is highest among
voters aged 18 to 35 (52 per
cent), that is, those who are
least likely to get out and vote.
Her support then gradual-
ly declines among the more
dependable older cohorts,
falling to 38 per cent among
35 to 54-year-olds, and to
29 per cent among those
over 55.
In contrast, Humphreys'
support is highest among the
oldest cohort (55 plus) at 43
per cent, falling to 24 per cent
for middle-aged voters, and
23 per cent for young voters.
Meanwhile, no advantage
for Humphreys among rural
voters has emerged.
Connolly continues to poll
ahead in Dublin and all re-
gions across the country.
The decision by Sinn Féin
to back Connolly appears to
be paying dividends for her
campaign too, as 63 per cent
of Sinn Féin voters say they
will vote for her, while 48 per
cent of independent support-
ers say they will give their first
preference to Connolly.
The strongest support for
Humphreys is, unsurprisingly,
with the Fine Gael base, 70 per
cent of whom say they will
give her their number-one
vote.
Fianna Fáil voters are also
clearly turning to Humphreys
in greater numbers, with 45
per cent saying they will vote
for her.
However, 22 per cent of Fi-
anna Fáil supporters say they
will vote for Connolly, show-
ing not all of Gavin's vote is
going the government's way.
As part of a campaign to
emphasise her pro-enter-
prise credentials, Humphreys
will, on Monday, announce
her intention for "an active
programme of president-led
trade missions" if elected.
These missions will have
a wide focus on securing in-
vestment and jobs for Ireland
and "she is particularly keen"
to use them to help Irish firms
grow, the party said.
"As minister for business
during Brexit, I led over a
dozen international trade
missions to the United States
of America, the United King-
dom, Germany, Hong Kong,
China, South Africa, Kenya,
Australia, New Zealand, Sin-
gapore and Japan," Hum-
phreys said.
"I have the experience of
sitting in those boardrooms
and helping to open doors for
Irish businesses and I want to
bring that to the presidency."
It's understood Fine Gael
will take a "lend-us-your-
vote" approach with Fianna
Fáil voters in an effort to drum
up support for their candidate.
Full report, pages 6-7
Revealed: Five executives at Re-t

[seafoid]

Catherine Connolly doing keepie uppy

https://youtu.be/IvDXJc76os8

[Truthsayer]

The media bias is shocking... latest headline in Business Post: "Red C Poll - Connolly leads but Heather gains from Gavin exit."...
Heather v Connolly 🤷
So blatant..

[Dag Dog]

Remember when The Catherine was part of this freakshow - Mick Wallace, Clare Daly and worst of all George Galloway  . At this stage George's account on Twitter (pre-Elon) was tagged "Russian state-affiliated media".
Thankfully, the Menlo hotel saw sense and cancelled the event.

For someone who denies being pro-Russian, she really does keep company with some of the worst kind of Russian backers.

[Dag Dog]

The media bias is shocking... latest headline in Business Post: "Red C Poll - Connolly leads but Heather gains from Gavin exit."...
Heather v Connolly 🤷�♂️
So blatant..

Like, what else could they say? Connolly gains from Gavin exit

[Truthsayer]

The media bias is shocking... latest headline in Business Post: "Red C Poll - Connolly leads but Heather gains from Gavin exit."...
Heather v Connolly 🤷�♂️
So blatant..

Like, what else could they say? Connolly gains from Gavin exit

They could say:
Connolly leads but Humphries gains from Gavin exit" OR
Catherine leads but Heather gains...

You don't find it insidious that they talk of .. Connolly and Heather ? 

[Baile Brigín 2]

The media bias is shocking... latest headline in Business Post: "Red C Poll - Connolly leads but Heather gains from Gavin exit."...
Heather v Connolly 🤷�♂️
So blatant..

Like, what else could they say? Connolly gains from Gavin exit

Why is it Heather and Connolly is the point.

They dont headline about Taoiseach Michal or Tainiste Simon.

It's an interesting double standard. Auntie Heather versus candidate Connolly