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Messages - Angelo

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1
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 04:07:17 PM »
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won’t change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don’t need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

A 400k property would require a combined salary of 100k per annum and a deposit of at least 40k.

Now say that couple are earning 100k a year together and are currently renting their own place in Dublin at 2k a week.

After tax, they might be seeing 70k a year, would that be a fair estimate?

So 24k of their after tax earnings (35%) of what they earn in a year is dead money on rent. Now they have to save up 40k - on their salaries it will probably take about 4 years if they starting from scratch which they likely would be if they are a young couple based in Dublin.

Running a car is expensive, insurance, tax, fuel, services - could be another 3-4k a year, possibly x2 for them. The alternative of public transport to and from work is likely going to be return a similar enough cost.

Utility bills - heating, electricity, bins, broadband, TV. Probably another 4-5k there in a year, possibly more.

Sot that's another 10-15k gone. You're probably now at 40k.

What would groceries be in a year? Would 5k cover a couple for the year?

Now you're at 45k of your 70k wrapped up and that's just on your basic needs.

How many weddings would a young couple have in a year? Anything from 3-4 to 7-8 I'd say. Between stags, hens and weddings probably the guts of 1k each time.

Medical expenses? Health insurance?

Gym memberships, playing sports, holidays, social life, getting a few non-essential items through the year?

Every cent you earn is gone if you want to live an anywhere near decent standard of life if you're stuck in the rental bubble in Dublin.

And that's a couple on decent jobs - just forget it for a single person, don't even go there.

All of the above is very true. And I'm aware that plenty of couples don't earn a combined 100k, or anywhere close to it.
It's not easy to save when paying a lot of rent. I know people who moved back with their parents for 2-3 years in some cases, in order to save a deposit. No fun!
I'm also aware that working in tech , one can forget that they are in a bubble that is not representative if wider society. But still has the ability to distort the market. There are many young(-ish) people in Dublin , working in tech, who have made a lot of money in the past few years on stock options. Even after tax it can come to multiples of annual salary. Especially if one accrued these shares prior to IPO. The 30 Coinbase employees in Dublin got a combined $27m (roughly, at IPO price point) which they will be able to sell (after paying 52% tax) in a few months if they wish. This is an extreme example, but plenty out there getting large 5 figure sums, that are no doubt fuelling property purchases and distorting the market.

And that's the problem isn't it?

People with money are going to invest in property as there is no safer investment at the minute.

The issues is why is govt policy fueling this rather than tackling it? It can't be that hard to draft legislation or increase taxation whereby private investors will not stand to make an absolute fortune through investment in residential property.

I put it up earlier that the mortgage for a 450k home is probably around 1600 pm.
The rental price of a similar property is likely well in excess of 2k.

And that's the issue there - I'd say 70% of couples in Dublin who are currently renting up in Dublin cannot afford to save the deposit up to get a mortgage.
So these investors are coming in and buying property and are then fleecing those people even further with the rental market and gov policy not only enables it but actively encourages it.

Look at the HAP and RAS schemes - look at the annual cost of that to the taxpayer and who benefits - private landlords. FFG policies that consistently damage first time buyers chances but consistently benefit private landlords and vulture funds.




2
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 03:42:24 PM »
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won’t change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don’t need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

A 400k property would require a combined salary of 100k per annum and a deposit of at least 40k.

Now say that couple are earning 100k a year together and are currently renting their own place in Dublin at 2k a week.

After tax, they might be seeing 70k a year, would that be a fair estimate?

So 24k of their after tax earnings (35%) of what they earn in a year is dead money on rent. Now they have to save up 40k - on their salaries it will probably take about 4 years if they starting from scratch which they likely would be if they are a young couple based in Dublin.

Running a car is expensive, insurance, tax, fuel, services - could be another 3-4k a year, possibly x2 for them. The alternative of public transport to and from work is likely going to be return a similar enough cost.

Utility bills - heating, electricity, bins, broadband, TV. Probably another 4-5k there in a year, possibly more.

Sot that's another 10-15k gone. You're probably now at 40k.

What would groceries be in a year? Would 5k cover a couple for the year?

Now you're at 45k of your 70k wrapped up and that's just on your basic needs.

How many weddings would a young couple have in a year? Anything from 3-4 to 7-8 I'd say. Between stags, hens and weddings probably the guts of 1k each time.

Medical expenses? Health insurance?

Gym memberships, playing sports, holidays, social life, getting a few non-essential items through the year?

Every cent you earn is gone if you want to live an anywhere near decent standard of life if you're stuck in the rental bubble in Dublin.

And that's a couple on decent jobs - just forget it for a single person, don't even go there.

3
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 11:03:32 AM »
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.


4
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 10:29:03 AM »
Have a look here.

https://www.daft.ie/property-for-rent/dublin-city/houses?showMap=false

You're looking at monthly rental prices starting at 2k per month in Dublin for an apartment/house.

A 400k 30 year mortgage is €1,600 per month via a quick google search

For someone under 40 who does not hail from money then you cannot win.

>25k on rent is absolutely insane but when you have FFG landlords voting on housing and rental legislation then it's hardly by accident.

People can't save the deposits to get a mortgage so they fleeced on rental properties by private investors who can afford the houses and make massive profits off the rental market. The game is rigged, it's been rigged by the policies and legislation introduced by FFG.

Another example here.

Property goes on the market, 2 bed house at 305k.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/latest-dublin-15-scheme-has-two-bed-houses-from-305-000-1.4005323

The same property is now on the rental market at €1,975 pm.

A thirty year mortgage of 270k with a 35k deposit has monthly repayments of almost half of the rent - €1,075 pm.

To say what Hound has said is just completely disingenuous.

People can't save the deposits for mortgages because they are being fleeced by landlords and vulture funds on the rental market.

5
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 10:16:19 AM »
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.


6
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 10:07:02 AM »
I think there needs to be a bit of realism too, in that property is hardly affordable in other successful cities. Trying buying a house in Paris, London, Madrid. Or Stockholm, Copenhagen, Vienna.

It was mentioned earlier that Irish people are quite unusual in a European context in wanting to own houses. One of the biggest reasons for that is that it was couple of generations earlier when ‘ordinary people’ in such cities realized they couldn’t afford to buy houses in the big cities! But someone owns them!

Dublin was late to the game in a European context in terms of high property prices. When it came, it came big. There was a great chance for a rebase and change of policy after the 2008 crash. But instead all we got from the media and the opposition parties was how terrible it was that property prices had fallen!  ‘Negative equity’ was the buzzword of all opposition politicians, when really that was a small problem - so long as you could afford the mortgage repayments.

So instead of us embracing low(ish) property prices and put in policies to try and keep it that way, incentives were put in to ignite the property market, to encourage outside investors, to help everyone who owned a property to push those prices up, but make it really hard for future potential house buyers to get into the property market! 

The biggest problem with politics is how the system makes everyone short sighted. The only thing that matters is getting elected in the next election. So politicians on all sides lumped into the need to help those in negative equity, regardless of the long term consequences.

What's rental like in these places relative to a price of a mortgage?

The issue seems to be that people are struggling to buy a house in Dublin, but the rental market is probably even more expensive than repaying a mortgage couples can't get.

A FFG created problem, more by design than accident.


7
GAA Discussion / Re: Division one 2021
« on: Today at 09:48:15 AM »
To be fair, the coverage as a whole is a joke.

The hurling and football shows should be separate with adequate time served to each. The football alone warrants a 2 hour slot probably if you want to cover the four divisions.

So what you are left with is them trying to cover everything in a minimal amount of time.

8
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: Today at 07:35:16 AM »
Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien said on Tuesday that he did not approve of investment funds purchasing almost entire new estates.

“Do investors have a role here, in housing in Ireland? Yes, they do as they do in most western European countries.”

No they f**king don't.

When the price of rent is equivalent to a mortgage, if not more - then they absolutely have no business near domestic property.

If I were in charge, the simple rules would be:
- a house must be owned by an individual.
- no individual can own more than 2 houses (with a 5 exemption year period for inheritance matters).

Simple and to the point.

I'm sure folks will point toward student housing etc - to which I'd respond - so what? There will be enough people willing to invest their "second" house as a student house and rent it to sort that out - without requiring investment companies etc.

Agree with fully.

It has been FFG policy to make housing a commodity for investors. Many FFG TDs are landlords though and really should be banned from voting on housing legislation.

9
General discussion / Re: Guess the Sindo Headline
« on: May 16, 2021, 07:42:45 PM »
One of the Harris accounts NorthernWhig I think it was had 20 followers.

4 of them were prominent Irish journalists.

David Davin Power - RTE
Mick Clifford - Examiner
Kieran McGreevy - Irish Times
Ben Lowry - Newsletter

Says a lot about the standards you'd expect.

10
GAA Discussion / Re: Division one 2021
« on: May 16, 2021, 07:01:33 PM »
How was that a foot block? He was at least a metre away from the ball being kicked
It was in no way dangerous
That's hilarious 😂 He dived feet first right in front of him. If you putting together a demonstration video of what a foot block is you could use this as an example
You don't know the rule.
A foot block is a block on the kicking action not the ball going through air
It's one thing some anonymous gazebo on an Internet forum not knowing the rule but an established inter County Ref .....

Do you know what a foot block is? From the GAA website:
Cautionable Infractions (Yellow Cards)

1. To block or attempt to block with the boot when an opponent is kicking the ball from the hand(s).

Comical Ali strikes again.

11
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 16, 2021, 05:21:36 PM »
I'm bringing the above post to the moderator's attention.

It's a classic case of the same posters trying to turn every thread into the same debate ad nauseam.

12
General discussion / Re: The Offical Glasgow Celtic thread
« on: May 16, 2021, 03:34:37 PM »
The huns rioting with themselves and trashing Glasgow city centre last night.

They are the peepil.

14
Tyrone / Re: Tyrone County Football and Hurling
« on: May 16, 2021, 02:31:53 PM »
Presuming McShane is still out and McNamee potentially out if it's seemed a concussion. I'd go with the following the next day.

Morgan

Brennan  Hampsey  C Munroe

Cassidy     O'Neill      Rafferty

Mattie      Kennedy

Donaghy   McKenna    Meyler

McGeary   McAliskey     Bradley

Munroe did well yesterday so he deserves a go if McNamee is noy around.

Hopefully McShane will be available off the bench. Should be some good options

Is moving mcnamee out the field out of the question?

McNamee is the type of guy who can probably player anywhere, usually plays midfield for his club but he's an All Star full back and I think that's where he has been rock steady for Tyrone for a number of years now.

Brennan McNamee Hampsey is arguably as good a full back line as there is in the country.

Where you suggesting playing him? At 6 or midfield?

I was thinking at midfield as a good option for kick out and can take a score but I would agree that Tyrone need all 3 of them in the full back line if playing against likes of Dublin or Kerry

McNamee is certainly good enough to play midfield but would he be any better of a midfielder than someone like McClure for example? I'm not so sure. He is a top class full back though. It's a bit like us having McKenna playing inside yesterday.

Clearly we have issues at midfield though and that's a worry.

I thought the management were very quick to hook Kennedy yesterday, he wasn't playing well but there were a few other players who could have been hooked and he is the only natural midfielder in the squad.

Was Paudie McNulty approached to play this year. I'd find it odd he wasn't after a good year with Dungannon and the obvious shortcomings we've had at midfield.

15
Tyrone / Re: Tyrone County Football and Hurling
« on: May 16, 2021, 12:57:00 PM »
Logan said in post-game interview McShane is back in training and coming well but return is not immediate. So guessing he will not be seen in the Armagh or Monaghan games. Possibly the Promotion or Relegation play-off a realistic target- that's 4 weeks from now.

I would like to see McKenna out to the half-forward line, with Canavan or McCurry / Bradley starting the next day for a bit more of a scoring threat with Donaghy. Donaghy's performance was the real positive yesterday. I thought Cassidy looked sluggish albeit against a strong Donegal half-forward line. They seem to have the footballers in there who are mobile and can also take scores (Langan, Thompson, Brennan floated out around the 45 too). Whereas Meyler, McGeary, Burns get through a lot of work but you never fully fancy them to take a scoring chance- think they all missed two each.
You could say that Meyler has got the better of McHugh in the last few encounters so he is a key asset.

McKenna looked frustrated and uncomfortable inside, definitely more of an asset in the half forward line. Donaghy I think will be better served in the half forward line too. For a big guy he is still has a fair bit of filling out to do, he can hit those long range scores and plays with his head up.

I think the set up looks like it is beginning to take shape now.

A half forward line of Donaghy McKenna and Meyler looks to have a good balance to it in terms of pace, scoring ability and work rate. McGeary is kind of the extra man out the field, breaks up an awful lot of the ball and did well yesterday in that role. The fact that he's vice captain tells you all of how highly the management team rate him and they see him as a crucial part to this team. The inside line is the issue. I think it basically comes down to a target man in there and a lively scorer playing off him. Obviously McShane coming back in and his levels toward this will be important, without him we have to find an alternative.

We tried R Donnelly in there yesterday, didn't work out as he doesn't have the pace. We tried McKenna in there and it didn't work out (as well as losing his influence out the pitch).
What other options have we there?
McNulty didn't make the squad today, he is the obvious alternative but is he up to this level and has he the mobility I don't know. If he's fit he should get the chance to show it.
M Donnelly and P Harte have played in that role before to varying success - two outstanding players in their own right but finding the right role for them in this new setup could be difficult.
You could try a 2 man inside line of the other inside options but it doesn't have the ball winning ability needed.

It looks like we will have McCurry, Bradley, Canavan, Brennan and McAliskey battling it out for one position. Four of them started on the bench yesterday and McAliskey didn't make the squad.

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