What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[smelmoth]

A misfiring NI is indeed a big problem for nationalism. Sectarianism and economic fragility are massive issues for nationalism. They are massive issues for everyone who cares about this place but they are are of particular relevance to the goals of nationalism. To be regarded as a successful or progressive nationalist is to do something about these issues. Otherwise nationalism is just a flag to dance around.

Saying that NI needs money just restates the problem. It does not provide a solution nor indicate how close we are to a solution.

Hinting at the availability of funds from Uncle Sam, the EU or slightly strangely Pension Funds is just words on a page. When will there be some detail on what these bodies will provide? For how long? On what terms?

We have already had the breakthrough of GFA and the peace process. Internationally the big prize to be associated with is peace, not constitutional change. We have already had the big breakthrough, shook the international money tree and collected the bounty. It all helped but it wasn't society changing. It's very much unclear, what if anything is available for a UI. We are certainly not in a position to just assume that funds, and all the funds that will be required, will just flow. We also have a threat that constitutional change is associated with violence (in the run up or immediately after) in which case international benefactors don't get their reflected glory.

A big first step for nationalism would be to weigh in full square behind integrated education. I genuinely don't believe there is any chance of achieving a UI without coming through a generation of integrated education as the norm rather than as an exception.

This will be a long journey as nationalism hasn't even began thinking about the first step.

There are funds all over the world looking for a decent return . Why is NI lagging behind Scotland and the RoI? is it because of the history? Is there anything that can be fixed? Is there any reason the people can't be more productive before integrated education kicks in?

And we are back to word salad. Of course there are funds looking for a return. But you earlier that NI  would be attractive to them and this was part of the solubility of our economic woes? I was expecting something to back that up. Not more word salad.

I am not linking productivity to integrated education. I am linking a sustained period of integration to a more normalised society. A more integrated society is less expensive to run or more specifically more of the money that is invested by government can go to stimulating an economy rather than funding us and them divisions.

[seafoid]

Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason

[Milltown Row2]

Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason

Lazy Cnuts?

[weareros]

Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason

Didn't the UK gov make the leader of DUP, Sir Jeffrey, the trade envoy to Cameroon, one of the world's poorest countries. He was out there trying to sell bags of Tayto. A comedian could not script that stuff.

[smelmoth]

Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason

What a weird way of operating you have. You make these confident statements and when asked any questions on it you just ask a load of different questions.

Anyway that is something that must think is a good idea.

NI investment is historically low for what should be a bleeding obvious reason. As this is a question of what a UI might look at the investment that would be needed first is to replace the GB subvention.

Fixing education might be a long term project but that means starting now. Anybody working towards a UI needs to sell it to the RoI electorate and therefore needs to significantly reduce sectarianism. If nationalism has any aspiration to achieve it's stated objective then it needs to start now. That's what it can focus on in medium term.

As for your economic stats please tell me that you are not including economic activity that takes place outside ROI but is reported inside RoI for tax purposes? Equally please tell me you are not excluding economic activity that takes place in NI but is reported in UK by a GB business? Your numbers would be pretty meaningless if either of those were true. That said I'm not saying the NI economy is healthy.

Nobody saying Sectarianism is our only problem. But if you don't solve that one it's pretty difficult to see an ROI electorate voting to take on our problems.

[seafoid]

Why is investment in NI so low ?
Anything to do with governance?
Fixing education is a long term project
What can be fixed in the medium term?
NI accounts for 8% of the island's economic output.
Sectarianism can't be the only reason

What a weird way of operating you have. You make these confident statements and when asked any questions on it you just ask a load of different questions.

Anyway that is something that must think is a good idea.

NI investment is historically low for what should be a bleeding obvious reason. As this is a question of what a UI might look at the investment that would be needed first is to replace the GB subvention.

Fixing education might be a long term project but that means starting now. Anybody working towards a UI needs to sell it to the RoI electorate and therefore needs to significantly reduce sectarianism. If nationalism has any aspiration to achieve it's stated objective then it needs to start now. That's what it can focus on in medium term.

As for your economic stats please tell me that you are not including economic activity that takes place outside ROI but is reported inside RoI for tax purposes? Equally please tell me you are not excluding economic activity that takes place in NI but is reported in UK by a GB business? Your numbers would be pretty meaningless if either of those were true. That said I'm not saying the NI economy is healthy.

Nobody saying Sectarianism is our only problem. But if you don't solve that one it's pretty difficult to see an ROI electorate voting to take on our problems.

Has the UI case been fully explored? I think that the difference between the Union and EU membership needs to be fleshed out.
NI only has a small office in Brussels. Its access to decision makers is limited.

[johnnycool]

Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.

Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.

Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.

A slither?

Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?

Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.

My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.

Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on

Yes a slither and if people think that integrated education is somehow going to transform NI society they're living in cloud cuckoo land.

The Boys Model and DeLa Salle could declare themselves "integrated" in the morning, but do you know what, 95+% of those kids will still come from the same estates with ingrained sectarianism and little or no social mobility so are stuck in their sectarian rut.

Integrated Education has it's part to play, but it's not going to have the big impact that people think.

give those kids a fair crack of the whip, help them out of this mess and then sectarianism or certainly militant sectarianism is less of an issue, but just to be clear there are plenty of suited and booted bigots out there as well.

[seafoid]

This is the challenge

https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.

[smelmoth]

Much being made of the sectarian nature of the Education structures in the north and whilst there's a slither of truth in that the biggest issues is how poorly the economically disadvantaged families fare in the current structures either side of the sectarian divide.

Entrance exams being the obvious example where the middle and upper class are tutoring away at their wee darlings and able to afford the various fees some colleges levy, and the "old boys" network that evolves from these schools.

Culturally there's also the lack of social mobility within these same groups, kids reared on benefits are more likely to see this as the norm with no way out of it and that needs tackled head on to break that cycle.

A slither?

Is the education system any better or worse that day GB or RoI in terms of attainment?

Attainment is obviously a key issue for education and has impacts on social mobility. Big issues here. Big issues everywhere. But we have a very specific problem of sectarianism within society. There is more than a slither of truth to the fact that religiously segregated eduction props up sectarianism.

My school education was entirely on a segregated basis. I witnessed behaviours by students and teachers that I instantly could see where sectarian and could only have been exhibited and replicated in that "safe space" of an exclusively taig environment. I saw many more behaviours than I probably only came to realise later where of a similar nature. Add to that the channelling of school friendships down sectarian lines and the ability to walk the streets after school instantly differentiate hun from taig based on school uniform . None of these things help society whether they are getting better or worse academic grades.

Social mobility problems need sorted but they are not the problems that sets NI apart when you want to take it on

Yes a slither and if people think that integrated education is somehow going to transform NI society they're living in cloud cuckoo land.

The Boys Model and DeLa Salle could declare themselves "integrated" in the morning, but do you know what, 95+% of those kids will still come from the same estates with ingrained sectarianism and little or no social mobility so are stuck in their sectarian rut.

Integrated Education has it's part to play, but it's not going to have the big impact that people think.

give those kids a fair crack of the whip, help them out of this mess and then sectarianism or certainly militant sectarianism is less of an issue, but just to be clear there are plenty of suited and booted bigots out there as well.

I think you are looking through the wrong end of the lens. Did anyone say integrated education would transform NI?

Surely the question can NI be readily transformed without integrated education?

We can try to fix this place with one hand tied behind our back or we can tackle this fairly major impediment

[smelmoth]

This is the challenge

https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.

When you say "this" you mean what exactly?

Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?

Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.

Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.

[seafoid]

This is the challenge

https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.

When you say "this" you mean what exactly?

Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?

Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.

Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.

If NI could more or less pay for itself it might be an attractive bride or McBride.
The ESRI should study the differences between the Irish and UK models to see where NI could upskill.
Another study on what factors crimp the lives of people in NI would be necessary.
The IDA could probably do some training and pass on a few leads.
There would probably be a transition period as well.
Maybe it it's not impossible.

[smelmoth]

This is the challenge

https://www.ft.com/content/d69b1aa0-e4db-432b-99df-1936be33f790
As for unification, that too is a challenge: polls show six out of 10 Irish people in the south want it, provided it does not mean paying higher taxes.

When you say "this" you mean what exactly?

Polls showing an appetite for a UI surely make it all the more important that nationalism tackles the cost issues?

Then of course there is the point that you could provide an endless list of things that people would like if they didn't have to pay.

Anyway I am still waiting on these solutions you have to our soluable problems.

If NI could more or less pay for itself it might be an attractive bride or McBride.
The ESRI should study the differences between the Irish and UK models to see where NI could upskill.
Another study on what factors crimp the lives of people in NI would be necessary.
The IDA could probably do some training and pass on a few leads.
There would probably be a transition period as well.
Maybe it it's not impossible.

Form "soluble" to "maybe not impossible" via word salad.

I'm not saying you are the spokesperson for Irish nationalism but your contributions to this discussion shine some light on the problems Irish nationalism (have yet to) face and the difficulty in providing concrete answers.

Certainly in NI there is a strain of nationalism that thinks that if they just sit tight then birth rates in the north (allied to some "positive" trends in relative migration) will just deliver a UI. The idea of having to actually persuade the citizenry of either jurisdiction is novel.

If you want a UI my recommendation would be to accept that it's a long term project but you have to start address the impediments now. A failure to address those impediments now just prolongs the timescale of the already long term.

20 or 30 years from now I can see a situation where the census data offers nationalism hope but they are failing to realise the assumed benefits in either jurisdictions because our economy won't have moved on sufficiently, society will still have deep sectarian divisions and the RoI voter is afraid to take on what is or could be a powder keg. Nationalist leaders might then look back and realise what they should have been doing in the intervening period

[seafoid]

A UI is a once in a generation attempt. It has to work.
Quebec had its last independence vote in 1995.

[Rossfan]

Seems Quebec has gone off the idea of Independence.

[smelmoth]

A UI is a once in a generation attempt. It has to work.
Quebec had its last independence vote in 1995.

More scattergun nonsense.

Do you ever meaningfully engage in a discussion?