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Messages - smelmoth

#16
GAA Discussion / Re: The future of Croke Park
June 02, 2023, 08:38:41 PM
Would expect Croke Park to continue to exist in its current format for a long time yet. Stadia get rebuilt when the maintenance costs become unviable or sustained demand exceeds capacity. Not sure either are on the imminent horizon.

Don't think there is a realistic possibility of redeveloping Hill 16 to mirror the Davin stand.

I do recall a stalwart of my own county once remarking that it was a disgrace that foreigners living behind Hill 16 were blocking that redevelopment. Never meet your heroes.
#17
Quote from: naka on May 26, 2023, 06:24:30 PM
Quote from: rrhf on May 26, 2023, 04:35:11 PM
I can see the Armagh ones are losing the run of themselves again. In fairness they have a great ability to have games won before they are played.  I'd usually always support the Ulster team but the disrespect shown to Westmeath is remarkable...
;)
No-one biting yet 🤫

He will be getting restless. He would have been really hoping for a nibble at least by this stage. I suppose it's an occupational hazard of trolling.
#18
Quote from: grounded on May 26, 2023, 08:31:40 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 26, 2023, 02:33:29 PM
Quote from: grounded on May 26, 2023, 12:15:45 PM
Quote from: Keyser soze on May 26, 2023, 10:47:07 AM
If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the "concerted effort" to which you refer?

D....e....t.....a....i....l.....s...
Is that all we get?
#19
Quote from: weareros on May 26, 2023, 07:35:48 PM
Unionists like to talk about their biggest trading partner: GB.

Ireland (republic) now only has about 9% of its trade with GB. It's not the 1950s anymore.

Here's the kicker that never gets discussed. The republic is still a larger trading partner with GB (even if 90% of its trade is elsewhere) per head of population than the north is. UK exports to Ireland (republic) were £54.7bn in 2022 and imports were £29.1bn. The North on other hand exports £12.2bn to GB and imports £14.4b.

Consider North has 40% of population of South. But consider the South does all that trade with UK (and is UK's 6th largest market) but 90% of South's trade is still elsewhere.

There's very little elsewhere for the North apart from GB and the rest of Ireland. Unionists in their blindness to be tethered to GB cannot even see that GB being the largest trading partner is actually a problem for economic growth. And they do not even have a surplus. The 1.9m from North buy more from GB than the 68m in GB buys from the wee country. South does not have a surplus either with UK  but has found new markets. One place North does have a surplus: with the South. And the protocol has increased that surplus.

On the big picture stuff I agree with you. NI has look more to economies beyond Uk.

On the specifics of your numbers I'm less sure. Accurate data of trade between UK regions is in my experience impossible to get. I'll give you an example:
A German company spends €10m on a service from a UK company. The UK company is headquartered in London but all its work is done in Belfast. Does your figures record that as an export from London to Germany, Belfast to Germany or Belfast to London? Accurately recording that stuff is really important for the type of analysis you are attempting.
#20
Quote from: UpMeeyo on May 26, 2023, 04:36:48 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 26, 2023, 03:24:48 PM
Quote from: UpMeeyo on May 26, 2023, 12:22:18 PM
Quote from: statto on May 26, 2023, 09:12:55 AM
Armagh team:

Rafferty

Morgan
Mckay
Forker


McCabe
C O'Neill
J Burns

Crealey
Ciaran Mackin

Grugan
Duffy
Campbell

Murnin
R O'Neill
Nugent

Subs:

Magill (GK)
Higgins
McCambridge
McQuillan
Cumiskey
Connaire Mackin
McPartlan
Turbitt
Hall
McConville
Conaty

Would it be fair to say Armagh don't know what their strongest team is? Every time I see an Armagh 15 there are changes -McCambridge, McQuillan, Connaire Mackin, McPartlan Turbitt, Hall - feel like all these lads have either started or been very involved in recent games, hard to build chemistry with so much chopping and changing.

Few teams stick to an exact 15 week in week out but there is a fair degree with continuity with almost all variations explained by knocks. Not sure when you saw McQuillan or Connaire Mackin named or drafted in before throwing  but I'm sure you will fill us in on the deets

Yeah tbf you've called my bluff a little bit  :) in mcquillans case, any time he's come on I've thought he should potentially be starting (which is why I've said "has been very involved") and as an outsider I could well have been confusing the two mackin's but I had thought I had seen potential in connaire, though I maybe I'm wrong. I think the point probably stands though. If we're saying Galway, Kerry and Dublin are the three front runners you could name 12-13 of their starters with reasonable certainty, I always find when an Armagh teamsheet is named it can be a guessing game as to who is in or out.

I Used to feel the same about Roscommon maybe 3 or 4 years ago - you'd never know whether both murtaghs or both smiths (even the dalys sometimes) would be starting, but now they seem reasonably settled and I think its standing to them.

Your post(s) don't make any sense.

Armagh name fairly consistent teams. Max of 3 changes and usually less that that. Massive consistency. Probably the side in Ireland most likely to start the named team. The premise of your posts seems freaky.

Because you think MCQuillan has done well when he comes on that in your opinion constitutes evidence that Armagh don't know their strongest team!! You are really going to talk me through the sequencing of your logic there?

Your other evidence being a confusion between 2 players ( one that has consistently started and one that consistently hasn't).

It's possible, just possible that your posts are utter gibberish and without a scintilla of merit?
#21
Quote from: UpMeeyo on May 26, 2023, 12:22:18 PM
Quote from: statto on May 26, 2023, 09:12:55 AM
Armagh team:

Rafferty

Morgan
Mckay
Forker


McCabe
C O'Neill
J Burns

Crealey
Ciaran Mackin

Grugan
Duffy
Campbell

Murnin
R O'Neill
Nugent

Subs:

Magill (GK)
Higgins
McCambridge
McQuillan
Cumiskey
Connaire Mackin
McPartlan
Turbitt
Hall
McConville
Conaty

Would it be fair to say Armagh don't know what their strongest team is? Every time I see an Armagh 15 there are changes -McCambridge, McQuillan, Connaire Mackin, McPartlan Turbitt, Hall - feel like all these lads have either started or been very involved in recent games, hard to build chemistry with so much chopping and changing.

Few teams stick to an exact 15 week in week out but there is a fair degree with continuity with almost all variations explained by knocks. Not sure when you saw McQuillan or Connaire Mackin named or drafted in before throwing  but I'm sure you will fill us in on the deets
#22
Quote from: grounded on May 26, 2023, 12:15:45 PM
Quote from: Keyser soze on May 26, 2023, 10:47:07 AM
If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the "concerted effort" to which you refer?
#23
Quote from: Keyser soze on May 26, 2023, 10:47:07 AM
If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

Will anything formally change?

One of the many constructive ambiguities in the GFA is the wide discretion given to the SOS on when to trigger the 2 polls. Maybe a line or 2 around that not being anytime soon can be chalk off whatever climb down they are going to have to wear on the Windsor Framework.
#24
Quote from: marty34 on May 26, 2023, 07:39:12 AM
Campbell isn't too bad.

He is as good as Peston and we are lucky to have him.


Quote from: marty34 on May 26, 2023, 07:39:12 AM
More business orientated.

Imagine that
#25
Quote from: Brendan on May 26, 2023, 10:27:34 AM
Quote from: grounded on May 26, 2023, 12:15:16 AM
Border poll!

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1661858499062644740

Do politicians ever watch back clips like this and cringe at how stupid it makes them look

It's baked in.

They can't turn down the invite.
They can't stop the question being asked.
They don't want a cringeworthy clip but they really don't want a clip where they categorically let the cat out of the bag. So they settle for the former and just repeat a stock line.
#26
Quote from: Orior on May 25, 2023, 11:23:40 PM
Imagine for a moment that you're invited out for a few beers with the commentators:

  • John Campbell

  • Ben Lowery

  • Sam McBride
Who would crack the most jokes?

I think you would laugh the most at Ben
#27
There is a lot of work to be done on flags, emblems, language, holidays, political structures, services and tax.

In that order (not necessarily order or importance):
What will the Irish flag be?
What will the anthem be and in what language?
How will unionism/Protestantism be reflected in the symbols of state and government?
Will 12th of July be a public holiday in part/all/none of Ireland?
Would Ireland be in the commonwealth?
What role for British monarchy?
Would some/all/none of Ireland have a public holiday on days that reflected British identity (e.g. monarch's funeral)?
Any recognition of Ulster scotch (I know)?
Would Ireland be a 32 county unitary state?
Or would there still be a NI with power sharing?
Would there be equivalent devolution elsewhere?
As signatories to the GFA what demands will the London government make?
How will they be petitioned by unionism?
What would the policing status of NI be and what resources would be in place if there was an upsurge in violence?
What would the trading agreement be with GB?
What would the EU view on that be?
Will the public services be the same in NI as in RoI currently? If so would be people have to pay for anything that is currently free? If it's not the same will RoI taxpayers have to pay for any service that they won't receive?
What will the divorce settlement with GB be in terms of assets, debts, future liabilities (pensions being an obvious one)?

A lot to work on. Pointless demanding SF or anyone answer all of them overnight but they will have to answer some and show that they are progressing the others. Ultimately they will all have to be answered.
#28
Quote from: DhoireTheas on May 25, 2023, 06:42:10 PM
I see the king was in Armagh today, the same people who were singing Londonderry songs in Clones. There may not be a London in Armagh but they sure had a king in it today

Feeble.

You will probably come along with a reasoned post on why that was a clever or funny thing to post. Or maybe not
#30
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
May 19, 2023, 05:26:28 PM
Quote from: High Fielder on May 19, 2023, 05:04:02 PM
It remains to be seen if he'll even be charged. It remains to be seen if he can be charged; statute of limitations, lack of evidence, witness statements etc. That's how far back we are. Obviously nobody can condone domestic violence, but until we  allow due process to be followed, we simply cannot and must not declare him guilty until he legally is.

As for a trial, there's a long road to travel before we get to that point. I agree tbrick. It would be very difficult to find 12 people who are impartial and generally unaware of the case

What role would the statute of limitations play here?