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Messages - smelmoth

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1
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 05:02:24 PM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

To extend that I also think unionists need it to work.

We all need it to work.

My point being that in the past many republicans thought it was in their interests for NI not to work. By now only the extremely hard of thinking could still be of that opinion

Equality is the issue and every attempt at equality is deemed to be a gift from unionism and that is wrong even when the facts are staring them in the face.

If it's not 50/50 policing, it'll be the ILA, it'll be not having a nationalist justice minister or something else. All bigotry dressed up as something else.
Heck wasn't Jim Allister complaining that too many nationalists were passing the bar exams and something needed to be done to address this imbalance.

WRT approving the DUP (Joint) first minister, the Shinners need to be not seen as the intransigent ones yet hold Poots to the NDNA and force it through and show who are the intransigent ones..

The last point is key. And the next steps are obvious.

Approve the appointment
Publish a draft bill
Bring it through the process
Reassess position if/when you encounter intransigence

In the meantime get on with governing the place

Smelmoth you must be an SDLP supporter as your glaring lack of political nous is such a good fit for that party.

So what should they do, why and what are the consequences?
Do nothing and let the the DUP have enough rope to hang themselves, which they inevitably will do.

That doesnít quite get you to the end of the road. You still have to deal with people.

SFís purposes are best served with a stable Unionist party. They would prefer if that party wasnít the DUP. But a splintered unionism doesnít really help
Ideally that will be Alliance, with the loonies running off with Jim Allister. Youíd like to think most Unionists are reasonable, decent people and will stick with a reasonable party.

I share you hope. Could be a nervous wait

2
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 05:01:18 PM »
Itís some irony that a pathway to a UI has become more clear in the centenary year of NI, whilst there is the most right wing Conservative and Unionist Government in Westminster. SF playing a blinder by doing nothing in so many ways. Either way there will be a Stormont election within the next 12 months. DUP in free fall, UUP not strong enough and flip flop like f**k, SDLP have some good operators but even though Eastwood has a strong personal majority he isnít a great leader and Naomi Long is pissing herself in the background waiting to mop up the collateral damage from the DUP collapse. 

This time 12 months the census results will be published. By then there will be a clear demarcation as to where the north is. Also by that stage you will see what is happening in Scotland in terms of another independence referendum. Moves for a border poll will commence at that stage.  Also the possibility of an Irish election in the near future to that and the political landscape will potentially change dramatically. SF slowly ridding itself of Ďbalaclavaí politicians and both Ďmainí Irish parties will be talking border polls and UI. Shit like that picks up pace very easily and when the EU and US f**k a load of money at it who knows what will happenÖ.

Would agree with the analysis of UUP, SDLP and Alliance. The DUP are incapable of analysis. Psychoanalysis might be closer to the point.

Not sure what is going to change in Scotland in the next 12 months.

Iíd love to see some evidence of this US and EU money. Presumably there will be concrete commitments on that front before anyone is asked to tick a box in the 2 border polls?

3
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 04:55:43 PM »
this really is the most exciting thing to happen here in a decade!

From a DUP perspective, they only have bad options:
  • Don't nominate - assembly collapses, election triggered and they become the 3rd/4th biggest party losing the first minister post to SF
  • Do nominate with commitment to implement ILA in a defined time period - The Duppers go up in arms about giving into SF demands. Doesn't matter if ILA was already agreed in NDNA.
  • Nominate with no ILA commitments - in this case SF wont nominate, see point 1.

SF have actually played a master class in politicking here by going to Westminster to ask for intervention. DUP are forced into a corner and have to play ball or the election is called. It didn't matter what option DUP chose, it was going to weaken them.
Meanwhile, SF get what they want (implementation of an already agreed deal) and lay the groundwork for taking the first minister role when ever the next election happens.

Will Pootsy be ousted over the next day or two? Who knows? Jeffery could be in there yet.
It's fascinating stuff watching a party implode like this.

It's all of their own making too - well theirs and the Tories. Bojo has thrown them under the bus after getting the Brexit he wants. It feels now like the tories are actually taking steps to further a UI...they could well want rid of us.

Where does that leave the Unionists here? Undying loyalty to a country that doesn't want them or support them. Fighting a losing battle against a UI (or a referendum at least).
You couldn't make this up and I've no idea where it's going to end, but it has me glued to the new channels!

Not really sure that this is a masterclass by SF.

Going to Westminster was always an option and would still be an option if DUP blocked an actual bill. SF have created a dangerous precedent that they could have avoided. They havenít brought forward an actual bill. They still havenít dealt with the actual issue.

SOS hasnít published a bill either. Whatís in itv What assurances have SF got that this isnít Alternative Vote all over again?

4
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 04:31:14 PM »
So are these twats so annoyed because the ILA is going to be passed?

The fact that people vote DUP makes me think you should have to pass some form of IQ test before being allowed to vote.
The move against Poots is a bit of an unholy alliance. Looks to be a pile of pricks who cannot abide the idea of an ILA being manipulated by another pile of pricks who can stomach an ILA but would to exploit the position to wrestle back control of the party from Poots. All a pile of pricks all the same

5
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 04:28:10 PM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

To extend that I also think unionists need it to work.

We all need it to work.

My point being that in the past many republicans thought it was in their interests for NI not to work. By now only the extremely hard of thinking could still be of that opinion

Equality is the issue and every attempt at equality is deemed to be a gift from unionism and that is wrong even when the facts are staring them in the face.

If it's not 50/50 policing, it'll be the ILA, it'll be not having a nationalist justice minister or something else. All bigotry dressed up as something else.
Heck wasn't Jim Allister complaining that too many nationalists were passing the bar exams and something needed to be done to address this imbalance.

WRT approving the DUP (Joint) first minister, the Shinners need to be not seen as the intransigent ones yet hold Poots to the NDNA and force it through and show who are the intransigent ones..

The last point is key. And the next steps are obvious.

Approve the appointment
Publish a draft bill
Bring it through the process
Reassess position if/when you encounter intransigence

In the meantime get on with governing the place

Smelmoth you must be an SDLP supporter as your glaring lack of political nous is such a good fit for that party.

So what should they do, why and what are the consequences?
Do nothing and let the the DUP have enough rope to hang themselves, which they inevitably will do.

That doesnít quite get you to the end of the road. You still have to deal with people.

SFís purposes are best served with a stable Unionist party. They would prefer if that party wasnít the DUP. But a splintered unionism doesnít really help

6
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 04:25:05 PM »
Itís difficult not to enjoy DUP pulling itself apart. Letís hope we are all smiling at the end of this.

7
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 17, 2021, 11:22:51 AM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

To extend that I also think unionists need it to work.

We all need it to work.

My point being that in the past many republicans thought it was in their interests for NI not to work. By now only the extremely hard of thinking could still be of that opinion

Equality is the issue and every attempt at equality is deemed to be a gift from unionism and that is wrong even when the facts are staring them in the face.

If it's not 50/50 policing, it'll be the ILA, it'll be not having a nationalist justice minister or something else. All bigotry dressed up as something else.
Heck wasn't Jim Allister complaining that too many nationalists were passing the bar exams and something needed to be done to address this imbalance.

WRT approving the DUP (Joint) first minister, the Shinners need to be not seen as the intransigent ones yet hold Poots to the NDNA and force it through and show who are the intransigent ones..

The last point is key. And the next steps are obvious.

Approve the appointment
Publish a draft bill
Bring it through the process
Reassess position if/when you encounter intransigence

In the meantime get on with governing the place

Smelmoth you must be an SDLP supporter as your glaring lack of political nous is such a good fit for that party.

So what should they do, why and what are the consequences?

8
General discussion / Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« on: June 16, 2021, 03:05:15 PM »
Beattie et al will run from the debate for as long as they can. Nothing surprising there.

There will come a time when they will change their mind or there will come a time when they are irrelevant.

The point when they change their mind is when wider elections show a majority of seats won by nationalists. That is when the SoS starts to come under pressure and is the last point that political unionism could come to the table. I donít see political unionism coming to the table until it has to. That is a failing of political unionism.

The point where political unionism becomes irrelevant (on this issue) is when a significant proportion of soft unionists or potential unionists vote for parties that do engage in the discussion - principally Alliance.

9
General discussion / Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« on: June 16, 2021, 11:36:32 AM »
Do our NI posters think SF/DUP will come to an agreement in the next week or will the Assembly collapse again?

God knows.

They absolutely should appoint and move on.

SF should not block appointments. The precedent would be extremely dangerous and do nobody any good.

If ILA is the point of principle then do the work on an ILA and bring it forward. There is no point of principle grandstanding that SF might want to do that they couldnít do down the line.

DUP should do the proper committee work on whatever draft comes forward.

Iíd say DUP would be bucked in any near term election. The longer term outlook would only be moderately better.

Any election will be about the protocol. The biggest issue will be sabre rattling on the protocol and how that shakes down the unionist votes. Not sure there would be much change in the nationalist vote other than if a few can see that Alliance have a chance of winning seats that wouldnít in the past then there might be a few first time Alliance voters from the nationalist ranks
I would 100% vote for AP in Upper Bann if it meant ousting Carla Lockhart
Definitely think that will feature.

But also donít rule out the fact that in a lot of constituencies AP might be the party of first choice for some individuals but they didnít think AP could get elected. That is beginning to change

10
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 16, 2021, 11:34:07 AM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

To extend that I also think unionists need it to work.

We all need it to work.

My point being that in the past many republicans thought it was in their interests for NI not to work. By now only the extremely hard of thinking could still be of that opinion

Equality is the issue and every attempt at equality is deemed to be a gift from unionism and that is wrong even when the facts are staring them in the face.

If it's not 50/50 policing, it'll be the ILA, it'll be not having a nationalist justice minister or something else. All bigotry dressed up as something else.
Heck wasn't Jim Allister complaining that too many nationalists were passing the bar exams and something needed to be done to address this imbalance.

WRT approving the DUP (Joint) first minister, the Shinners need to be not seen as the intransigent ones yet hold Poots to the NDNA and force it through and show who are the intransigent ones..

The last point is key. And the next steps are obvious.

Approve the appointment
Publish a draft bill
Bring it through the process
Reassess position if/when you encounter intransigence

In the meantime get on with governing the place

11
General discussion / Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« on: June 15, 2021, 08:22:41 PM »
Do our NI posters think SF/DUP will come to an agreement in the next week or will the Assembly collapse again?

God knows.

They absolutely should appoint and move on.

SF should not block appointments. The precedent would be extremely dangerous and do nobody any good.

If ILA is the point of principle then do the work on an ILA and bring it forward. There is no point of principle grandstanding that SF might want to do that they couldnít do down the line.

DUP should do the proper committee work on whatever draft comes forward.

Iíd say DUP would be bucked in any near term election. The longer term outlook would only be moderately better.

Any election will be about the protocol. The biggest issue will be sabre rattling on the protocol and how that shakes down the unionist votes. Not sure there would be much change in the nationalist vote other than if a few can see that Alliance have a chance of winning seats that wouldnít in the past then there might be a few first time Alliance voters from the nationalist ranks

12
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 15, 2021, 08:11:36 PM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

To extend that I also think unionists need it to work.

We all need it to work.

My point being that in the past many republicans thought it was in their interests for NI not to work. By now only the extremely hard of thinking could still be of that opinion

13
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 15, 2021, 04:41:19 PM »
As said before Stormont has one more life left.

What is the alternative?

I would be more positive. Whilst I can see things getting worse first ultimately Stormont will work. Whilst we are still in UK Stormontís powers just revert to Westminster (I.e. SoS and NIO). They will do what the can to create political pressure for Stormont to come back.

Even in a United Ireland the same pressures will exist - just replace Westminster with Dublin.

But to even get to a UI you need to convince the people of RoI that this is a good idea. People will ask the obvious questions. What will it cost and what do I get for it? Right now the answers to those questions are (i) a lot and (ii) a problem. Itís not attractive. The more dysfunctional NI is the less attractive a UI will become.

Stormont has to work. The people of NI need it to work and Irish Nationalism needs it to work.

14
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 15, 2021, 04:33:56 PM »
While I for one would love to see the DUP wiped out by an election does that not just result in Groundhog Day where the DUP would fail to support a SF first minister and fail to nominate a deputy first minister?

While the DUP cannot be allowed to renege on agreements time and time again I think SF need to play this one very wisely or they risk letting the DUP off the hook and they take hit for collapsing the assembly. I donít think collapsing the assembly is the right move at present.

Do SF have an answer as to why it would be a good move this month but wasnít last month or the month before?

I've no idea. Have you asked them?

Iím throwing the question out there. If SF have an answer Iím sure we will hear it.

15
General discussion / Re: 💩 DUP C*ntwatch - Under New Management
« on: June 15, 2021, 02:46:27 PM »
While I for one would love to see the DUP wiped out by an election does that not just result in Groundhog Day where the DUP would fail to support a SF first minister and fail to nominate a deputy first minister?

While the DUP cannot be allowed to renege on agreements time and time again I think SF need to play this one very wisely or they risk letting the DUP off the hook and they take hit for collapsing the assembly. I donít think collapsing the assembly is the right move at present.
What excuse would the DUP have then not to back a SF FM? I think itís very reasonable for SF to expect the DUP to honour existing agreements tbh! If Stormont collapses it really is border poll time!

So publish a draft ILA. Take it through the process and react when and if it fails. What have SF got to fear from that course of action?


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