Poll

If you have/had a vote, how will/would you vote?

Yes
122 (87.8%)
No
17 (12.2%)

Total Members Voted: 139

Voting closed: September 18, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Author Topic: Scottish independence referendum thread  (Read 71891 times)

Rossfan

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #750 on: May 08, 2021, 06:03:45 PM »
Looking like 62 of the 73 Constituency seats to SNP.
They may only get 2 of the List seats but Greens should come in with 8 or more.
Remember we're a noble race from a land where Kings once trod.

bennydorano

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #751 on: May 08, 2021, 06:06:11 PM »
Curtice: Scotland 'divided down the middle' on independence

Professor Sir John Curtice

Polling expert

Once both sides finish celebrating their victories and commiserating on their failures, they should conclude that this election confirmed the message of the opinion polls Ė that Scotland is divided straight down the middle on the constitutional question.

We are going to end up in a situation where roughly 50% of people are going to vote for pro-independent parties and roughly 50% of people are going to vote in favour of unionist parties.

It is clear the constitutional question really matters Ė note the big turnout, and the tactical voting among unionist parties in order to keep the SNP out.

The unionists have been able to stop the SNP from getting an overall majority Ė despite them getting a record vote share in the constituencies. Ironically, one reason is because despite the claims from the unionists that the constitutional question wasnít the most important question facing Scotland, the voters have behaved in such a way that they quite clearly think it does.

It is pretty clear from the polls that virtually anybody who votes for the SNP and the Greens is in favour of independence, and virtually anybody who votes for Labour, the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats is opposed.

Add up the votersí totals when we get them and you will see it will be close to 50-50. So we are well and truly split over the constitutional question.

Therefore if we were to have a referendum at any point in the near future, both Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon would be taking the most enormous political gamble.


weareros

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #752 on: May 08, 2021, 06:44:35 PM »
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just donít have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting itís a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. Itís share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

John Egans left boot

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #753 on: May 08, 2021, 07:02:59 PM »
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just donít have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting itís a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. Itís share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

Heís on BBc  election coverage now

Rossfan

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #754 on: May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM »
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.
Remember we're a noble race from a land where Kings once trod.

John Egans left boot

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #755 on: May 08, 2021, 08:50:11 PM »
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as itís in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

ned

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #756 on: May 08, 2021, 09:50:24 PM »
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as itís in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.

ned

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #757 on: May 08, 2021, 09:52:17 PM »
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just donít have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting itís a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. Itís share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

Greens received 8% in regional vote. You sound like a Tory picking and choosing stats.

Main Street

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #758 on: May 08, 2021, 09:55:13 PM »
Should the SNP win 6 constituency seats in a region, then their regional vote is divided by 6. I see the Greens  received more than 8% of the regional vote, over 220,000.

weareros

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #759 on: May 08, 2021, 11:19:11 PM »
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just donít have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting itís a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. Itís share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

Greens received 8% in regional vote. You sound like a Tory picking and choosing stats.

Just a realist. Hate Toryís as much as anyone. It was opportunity for Scots to send a decisive message. Like the last referendum and like the recent softening in Opinion Polls, you just canít trust the Scots to do the right thing. Would love to be proved wrong but Iíve no faith theyíd pass Indy2 right now, at a time when it should be more convincing given Brexit and the arrogance of Toryís in denying self-determination.

John Egans left boot

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #760 on: May 09, 2021, 09:10:43 AM »
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as itís in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.

Ned either  live in the south of Scotland/highlands and islands- if itís the south of Scotland I feel for you a Tory heartland

ned

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #761 on: May 09, 2021, 01:00:19 PM »
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as itís in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.

Ned either  live in the south of Scotland/highlands and islands- if itís the south of Scotland I feel for you a Tory heartland

South. Unfortunately the region included everything south of Glasgow and Edinburgh. Overall the parliament is a decent representation of national voting %s but SNP lost 2 decent MSP from this area.

Rossfan

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #762 on: May 09, 2021, 01:11:27 PM »
Should the SNP people have switched to Alba and Greens for list voting  in 6 of the Regions ?
Remember we're a noble race from a land where Kings once trod.

John Egans left boot

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #763 on: May 09, 2021, 03:18:54 PM »
Should the SNP people have switched to Alba and Greens for list voting  in 6 of the Regions ?

Spot on Rossfan, tactical voting by the unionist parties should have been met with same thoughts by nationalists. I just hope that NS and the SNP are beginning serious work like Irelands future are doing on shaping the policies for the war ahead particularly in finance. This is the calm before the storm...

seafoid

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Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
« Reply #764 on: May 09, 2021, 09:41:31 PM »
The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.
Lookit