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Messages - David McKeown

#1
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 26, 2024, 11:45:03 AM
Quote from: Muck Savage on March 26, 2024, 01:11:07 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 25, 2024, 06:52:43 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on March 25, 2024, 01:37:33 PM

See this confuses it a bit. Unless TG4 has a crystal ball as Westmeath can still leap frog Down if they win next week. Strangely TG4 already have Armagh leapfrogging Donegal as well.


top right of the graphic, "As it stands"
Lots can change between now and the provincial final line-up


But it wasn't correct as it stood.
#2
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 25, 2024, 06:52:43 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on March 25, 2024, 01:37:33 PM

See this confuses it a bit. Unless TG4 has a crystal ball as Westmeath can still leap frog Down if they win next week. Strangely TG4 already have Armagh leapfrogging Donegal as well.
#3
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations 2024
March 25, 2024, 12:35:25 AM
Quote from: grounded on March 24, 2024, 06:11:46 PM
Quote from: Itchy on March 24, 2024, 05:45:15 PMAccording to radio 1 today, they said Down secured All Ireland football for this season. But that's not necessarily true. A lot of people not up to speed on how this is done

On the laws of probabilities as it stands, For Down to qualify for Sam, they obviously need to win the division 3 title and are reliant on Louth reaching the provincial final in Leinster.
    Due to the Munster draw, If Cork had of continued their earlier league performances and been relegated, this would have freed up another spot.


Does the higher ranking go to the division 3 winner or the higher placed team in the league?

If it's higher placed team in the league then Down are ranked 15th. Munster will produce at least one finalist outside the top 16. Ulster and Connacht likely won't (although might) so realistically it comes down to who makes it to the final in Leinster from the non Dublin side of the draw. Anyone other than Louth would push Down out of the all Ireland unless they make the Ulster final.

Would down prefer not to be in the Tailtean?
#4
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
March 23, 2024, 09:39:23 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 23, 2024, 08:56:47 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 23, 2024, 06:46:44 PMThe DRA decision on over turning the suspension is illuminating on a lot that has been discussed here.

From memory (as I haven't read the decision since it was published) RG stood down voluntarily from Derry role shortly after the allegations surfaced. Ulster GAA initially incorrectly thought this was from all GAA roles and were subsequently slow to disbar him.

RG was disbarred through rules dealing with adult safeguarding which conflicted with and did not explicitly disallow the rules in the official guide (unlike the rules relating to child safeguarding). They were therefore void.

On a more general point. The GAA are duty bound to investigate any complaint about any member to the best of their ability if that complaint has the potential to raise safeguarding issues.
Safeguarding issues do not apply to Rory Gallagher.
QuoteThe GAA are not bound by criminal court decisions where there is a higher burden of proof and will make all decisions on the balance of probabilities.

Family courts are confidential and the GAA will not be given information in respect of them. The outcome of the family courts is largely irrelevant as a result. It was mentioned here that abusive fathers are more likely to get custody than unsuitable mothers. That isn't really accurate. It's not a zero sum equation. If the court has concerns over both parents it's more likely to place children into care or into the care of other suitable family members.
It is accurate in cases  which would resemble  the type of RG v Nicola and apparently there are many of these type of cases.  RG was not charged with any abuse. We are not talking about a dodgy Davy Tweed looking for custody after being cleared of all charges on a technicality, after spending 4 years in jail and the prosecutor dropped the case due to lack of something.
In a situation where you have a determined, combatant, solid articulate father, with no case of abuse to answer to,  with boxes of references and more than competent legal representation  versus a partner who has allegedly (but crucially not proven) suffered long term abuse and has acquired an addiction of sorts. The father would  most likely gain custody even if decent testimony was offered  to support amother's claims of abuse.
What I am saying is that a father being awarded custody does not vindicate the father from allegations of spousal abuse as is being claimed by some posters here.



[/quote]

Sorry why do they not apply?  Particularly given he was disbarred by the Ulster Adult Safeguarding Panel and his appeal to the DRA was against that panel.

I also don't think we can generalise but my experience albeit I would not profess to be an expert in family courts is that they are particularly conservative and will nearly always not grant full custody to fathers if there has been any form of abuse alleged and certainly will not do so without a thorough and comprehensive investigation involving many specialists in the field.  The court is legally obligated to focus on the welfare of the child. The court will hear from social workers, often the children will be separately represented etc etc. That said it also shouldn't be seen as vindication because again the court is focused on the welfare of the child
#5
General discussion / Re: Insurance
March 23, 2024, 07:20:26 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 22, 2024, 02:33:39 PMI enjoy the fact that speeding penalty points stay on your record for 4 years, but insurance companies keep them on their records for 5 years.. Nice wee additional earner for them

In Northern Ireland penalty points will appear on your licence for 4 years if imposed at the roadside or 5 years if imposed at court.  In either scenario they will only count for 3 years from date of incident.
#6
GAA Discussion / Re: RG at arms length
March 23, 2024, 06:46:44 PM
The DRA decision on over turning the suspension is illuminating on a lot that has been discussed here.

From memory (as I haven't read the decision since it was published) RG stood down voluntarily from Derry role shortly after the allegations surfaced. Ulster GAA initially incorrectly thought this was from all GAA roles and were subsequently slow to disbar him.

RG was disbarred through rules dealing with adult safeguarding which conflicted with and did not explicitly disallow the rules in the official guide (unlike the rules relating to child safeguarding). They were therefore void.

On a more general point. The GAA are duty bound to investigate any complaint about any member to the best of their ability if that complaint has the potential to raise safeguarding issues.

The GAA are not bound by criminal court decisions where there is a higher burden of proof and will make all decisions on the balance of probabilities.

Family courts are confidential and the GAA will not be given information in respect of them. The outcome of the family courts is largely irrelevant as a result. It was mentioned here that abusive fathers are more likely to get custody than unsuitable mothers. That isn't really accurate. It's not a zero sum equation. If the court has concerns over both parents it's more likely to place children into care or into the care of other suitable family members.
#7
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 17, 2024, 02:51:41 PM
Quote from: JoG2 on March 17, 2024, 11:25:07 AM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 17, 2024, 07:51:41 AM
Quote from: tintin25 on March 17, 2024, 07:43:47 AM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on March 16, 2024, 09:42:34 PMBest Case Scenario is Below

Provincial Finalists & Tailteann Cup winners as follows

1. Derry
2. Armagh
3. Kerry
4. Clare
5. Dublin
6. Louth
7. Galway
8. Mayo
9. Meath

Remaining 7 Sides

10. Tyrone
11. Donegal
12. Roscommon
13. Monaghan
14. 3rd in Division 2 - Likely Cavan
15. 4th in Division 2 - Likely Cork
16. 5th in Division 2 (or 6th if Meath Finish top 5)  - or Division three winner if Louth make provincial Final - Likely Down

**Winning Division three will actually be enough in this scenario if Louth stay up in division two and get into a provincial final**



Has entry criteria changed because I don't think winning Division 3 got you in previously?

It doesn't get you in automatically but it leaves you as either the 15th or 16th ranked team depending on where the Tailtean cup winners end up. That might be good enough this year given the provincial draws.

If you're sitting around 15th / 16th in a given year and hoping to scrap into the Sam Maguire Cup, would you not be better just missing out and being one of the favourites for the Tailtean?

I suppose that varies county to county and where you are in your developmental cycle.  Do you get buy in from players and supporters for the Tailtean etc
#8
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 17, 2024, 09:34:21 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 17, 2024, 08:08:46 AMIve lost a lot of faith & interest in Armagh this year. Near half way through D1 last season I remember discussing how we should push on and try and win the league. We ended up relegated and then doubled down on the disappointment in the USFC & AI series. This year's league cakewalk just reinforces what a waste its been. Who can tell if any lessons have been learned?

I'm actually quite the opposite, the year in Division 2 has to me at least allowed Armagh to develop and hone a new game plan as well as unearth/develop a few new players. I'm not sure that would have been possible in Division 1. The proof of the pudding Will obviously be in the eating but I'm more satisfied with a league campaign than I have been in nearly 20 years.
#9
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 17, 2024, 07:51:41 AM
Quote from: tintin25 on March 17, 2024, 07:43:47 AM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on March 16, 2024, 09:42:34 PMBest Case Scenario is Below

Provincial Finalists & Tailteann Cup winners as follows

1. Derry
2. Armagh
3. Kerry
4. Clare
5. Dublin
6. Louth
7. Galway
8. Mayo
9. Meath

Remaining 7 Sides

10. Tyrone
11. Donegal
12. Roscommon
13. Monaghan
14. 3rd in Division 2 - Likely Cavan
15. 4th in Division 2 - Likely Cork
16. 5th in Division 2 (or 6th if Meath Finish top 5)  - or Division three winner if Louth make provincial Final - Likely Down

**Winning Division three will actually be enough in this scenario if Louth stay up in division two and get into a provincial final**



Has entry criteria changed because I don't think winning Division 3 got you in previously?

It doesn't get you in automatically but it leaves you as either the 15th or 16th ranked team depending on where the Tailtean cup winners end up. That might be good enough this year given the provincial draws.
#10
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 16, 2024, 08:16:24 PM
Quote from: Cavan19 on March 16, 2024, 07:32:10 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 16, 2024, 07:22:48 PM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on March 16, 2024, 04:58:16 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 16, 2024, 04:20:04 PMMeath are one of those teams that you don't know what you're going to get from one game to the next. Cork after a very poor start have now won their last 3 matches and have turned it around at the right time. Is that them guaranteed to be in the Sam Maguire cup now?

Can't ever be guaranteed to be in Sam whilst your in Division 2 as there's so many variables with the provincials.

But I reckon to be 90% sure you'll need to top 4 in Division 2.

Top 5 once Meath finish above you as they are guaranteed Sam Maguire Football regardless of their league position.

It really is a mine field. For example I really think Down would like Fermanagh relegated and Louth to stay up because of the Leinster draw.

Looking at you probably have to think it's going to be one Munster finalist from outside the top 16 in the league 0 in Connacht or Ulster and then potentially 1 or 0 in Leinster. So if it's that then staying in Div 2 will probably be good enough and who ever tops Div 3 or wins Div 3 final (not sure which is seeded higher) probably gets the last spot.

Not sure about that I worked it out a few weeks ago I think you need to be at least 5th in Division 2 to be sure.

Well Munster is going to be Kerry/Cork/Limerick v Clare/Tipp/Waterford so that's likely to produce a top 16 team v a team that's at highest 15th

Connacht is Mayo/New York/Roscommon v Galway/Leitrim/Sligo/London. For me that's going to be two top 16's teams.

Ulster is guaranteed 1 team in the final from the top 16 and with a possibility of either Down or Armagh coming through the other side.

Leinster you imagine will have Dublin in the final. So the question is who comes through the other side.

If it's Louth (and they survive) or Westmeath (and they get promoted) then they will both be top 16 teams.

So realistically it's probably between 0 and 3 teams from outside the top 16 that will make provincial finals and at that id be surprised at more than 2.

So I think stay in Division 2 is probably good enough.
#11
GAA Discussion / Re: Division 2 2024
March 16, 2024, 07:22:48 PM
Quote from: SouthOfThe Bann on March 16, 2024, 04:58:16 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on March 16, 2024, 04:20:04 PMMeath are one of those teams that you don't know what you're going to get from one game to the next. Cork after a very poor start have now won their last 3 matches and have turned it around at the right time. Is that them guaranteed to be in the Sam Maguire cup now?

Can't ever be guaranteed to be in Sam whilst your in Division 2 as there's so many variables with the provincials.

But I reckon to be 90% sure you'll need to top 4 in Division 2.

Top 5 once Meath finish above you as they are guaranteed Sam Maguire Football regardless of their league position.

It really is a mine field. For example I really think Down would like Fermanagh relegated and Louth to stay up because of the Leinster draw.

Looking at you probably have to think it's going to be one Munster finalist from outside the top 16 in the league 0 in Connacht or Ulster and then potentially 1 or 0 in Leinster. So if it's that then staying in Div 2 will probably be good enough and who ever tops Div 3 or wins Div 3 final (not sure which is seeded higher) probably gets the last spot.
#12
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2024
March 03, 2024, 11:31:22 PM
What is he doing though?
#13
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2024
March 03, 2024, 11:06:52 PM
Quote from: tonto1888 on March 03, 2024, 11:03:04 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on March 03, 2024, 11:01:05 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 03, 2024, 10:24:44 PMCan I start a new thread for this black card not being given to Kerry??

https://x.com/billyoshea77/status/1764295488340135987?s=46&t=phQ2HHkWD0UVsLqr_FKpag

Maybe I am missing something or misunderstanding why is this a black card?


And why for Kerry?

Sorry yes thats what I meant I can see an argument for it being a deliberate pull down by the Tyrone player, although i think that would be harsh
#14
GAA Discussion / Re: NFL Division 1 2024
March 03, 2024, 11:01:05 PM
Quote from: screenexile on March 03, 2024, 10:24:44 PMCan I start a new thread for this black card not being given to Kerry??

https://x.com/billyoshea77/status/1764295488340135987?s=46&t=phQ2HHkWD0UVsLqr_FKpag

Maybe I am missing something or misunderstanding why is this a black card?
#15
Quote from: Dubh driocht on March 03, 2024, 09:44:13 PMKieran McEvoy is a solid source but I would be surprised if he stated that petty crime exploded after the troubles. It's hard to get stats for the 90s but if we go back to the GFA in 98 there's a similar picture;
https://www.psni.police.uk/system/files/2023-11/456441561/Police%20Recorded%20Crime%20in%20Northern%20Ireland%201998-99%20to%202022-23.pdf
I accept that it's a complex discussion; however the old cliché that paramilitaries kept a lid on crime doesn't stand up to any serious scrutiny (acknowledging that's not what you said)

Well it wouldn't be the first time I had misremembered something I thought someone had said in a lecture but I'm pretty confident he did.

I don't think paramilitaries particularly kept a lid on crime (at least not in terms of acting as a deterrent)although there may have been some small element of that but there are some inter related issues that spin off from that. Crime not being reported in certain areas and instead anti social behaviour being dealt with by punishment beating. As a result crimes occurring but not be reported, investigated or making their way into statistics for example.

You are entirely correct though about the difficulty in getting accurate statistics from that time.

I should have all my lectures from my time recorded. I must see if I can fish them out and check that I'm remembering correctly.