Landlordism 2.0

[trailer]

The real economy is weaker than people think . House prices can fall as well as rise

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/as-yet-another-shop-closes-can-grafton-street-survive-1.4566666

On Dublin's Grafton Street, a host of shops, formerly occupied by the likes of Tommy Hilfiger, Fitzpatricks, Ecco, Urban Decay, Pamela Scott, Topman, Monsoon and Cath Kidston, will remain closed. In fact, almost one in five shops on the street won't be reopening today.

And they may not be the only ones.

"I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of [other] shops don't reopen," says Eoin Feeney, deputy managing director and head of retail at BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland.
Hugo Boss agreed a 24 per cent reduction on its rent when it agreed a new 10-year lease at 67/68 Grafton Street in January of this year, equating to €1,177 per square metre, while Tommy Hilfiger recently agreed to pay a year's rent just to exercise its 15-year break option early. If and when a replacement is found for the unit, it's unlikely to be at previous levels.

Using shop closers as a measurement for the economy is useless. Retail is closing as ppl are changing their habits. People should thank Covid for fast forwarding its demise. Retail was dead 5 years ago, people just refused to believe it.
There are also lots of opportunities in the hospitality sector that these employees can transfer into. So I can't see much of an issue. Locally all hospitality businesses are hiring, and in one case they said if they can't get staff they won't be able to open. If you don't have a job at the minute you simply don't want one.

I disagree. Retail is an important barometer of overall demand.
In the UK, Debenhams collapsed. Boohoo which is internet only bought the brand and website only. 10,000 jobs were lost.
What counts is demand. If 100 retail jobs are replaced by 20 online jobs at lower pay, demand falls. If this is repeated across the economy, house prices are not sustainable .
Too many indicators are saying the same thing.

High street retail was already dead Covid or no Covid. It'll have minimal effect on house prices.

On its own it won't. But all the jobs lost over a year, the fact that Central Banks can't restore equilibrum, Brexit, the fact that the credit transmission mechanism is broken- it's all pointing in one direction. There is going to be another housing crash. Most models are backward looking. That doesn't help.

There's heaps of jobs. Anyone without one doesn't want one.

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

The real economy is weaker than people think . House prices can fall as well as rise

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/as-yet-another-shop-closes-can-grafton-street-survive-1.4566666

On Dublin's Grafton Street, a host of shops, formerly occupied by the likes of Tommy Hilfiger, Fitzpatricks, Ecco, Urban Decay, Pamela Scott, Topman, Monsoon and Cath Kidston, will remain closed. In fact, almost one in five shops on the street won't be reopening today.

And they may not be the only ones.

"I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of [other] shops don't reopen," says Eoin Feeney, deputy managing director and head of retail at BNP Paribas Real Estate Ireland.
Hugo Boss agreed a 24 per cent reduction on its rent when it agreed a new 10-year lease at 67/68 Grafton Street in January of this year, equating to €1,177 per square metre, while Tommy Hilfiger recently agreed to pay a year's rent just to exercise its 15-year break option early. If and when a replacement is found for the unit, it's unlikely to be at previous levels.

Using shop closers as a measurement for the economy is useless. Retail is closing as ppl are changing their habits. People should thank Covid for fast forwarding its demise. Retail was dead 5 years ago, people just refused to believe it.
There are also lots of opportunities in the hospitality sector that these employees can transfer into. So I can't see much of an issue. Locally all hospitality businesses are hiring, and in one case they said if they can't get staff they won't be able to open. If you don't have a job at the minute you simply don't want one.

I disagree. Retail is an important barometer of overall demand.
In the UK, Debenhams collapsed. Boohoo which is internet only bought the brand and website only. 10,000 jobs were lost.
What counts is demand. If 100 retail jobs are replaced by 20 online jobs at lower pay, demand falls. If this is repeated across the economy, house prices are not sustainable .
Too many indicators are saying the same thing.

High street retail was already dead Covid or no Covid. It'll have minimal effect on house prices.

On its own it won't. But all the jobs lost over a year, the fact that Central Banks can't restore equilibrum, Brexit, the fact that the credit transmission mechanism is broken- it's all pointing in one direction. There is going to be another housing crash. Most models are backward looking. That doesn't help.

There's heaps of jobs. Anyone without one doesn't want one.

i concur, there's nothing to stop people having 2 or 3 jobs if they want, there are plenty going, it means you have to work though 

[RadioGAAGAA]

The problem is that from the midway point of a chain up, there is a high likelihood that the person involved would have a second investment property. Anyone in that situation, regardless of available capital, is stuck from purchasing until they've sold up.

Which then favours sellers taking offers from buyers who aren't locked.

Even if that offer isn't the highest.

Which also helps keep a lid on prices.

Again, not seeing the problem.

[seafoid]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/stamp-duty-hike-of-10-for-bulk-buyers-of-houses-set-to-be-approved-by-d%C3%A1il-1.4568821


The Government has moved to clamp down on bulk-buying of new homes with an increased stamp duty of 10 per cent on certain multiple house purchases set to be approved by the Dáil today.
Under measures agreed by the Cabinet on Tuesday night, the higher stamp duty rate will apply to the purchasing of more than 10 houses within a 12-month period.

Meanwhile, the Dáil on Tuesday night unexpectedly passed a Sinn Féin motion calling for affordable housing to be delivered at a maximum price of €230,000 in Dublin and less outside the capital and with rental costs at between €700 and €900 per month in the capital.

[Look-Up!]

The lifting of the eviction ban very hot topic these days. An awful lot of political point scoring going on. Leo getting a lot of grief and I'm not a great fan but he is talking a lot of sense. Real issue is the chronic shortage of housing units although his party has to take the majority of the responsibility for this.

But the fact that a lot of his critics are only interested in gaining political capital from the situation wouldn't fill me with much hope that they have any real proper grasp on the solutions or even care half as much as they're letting on.

[Armagh18]

I don't get the outrage. If you're not paying your rent, out to f**k.

[J70]

Housing is a huge problem in the states too.

New York are trying to do something about it by forcing towns, especially in the areas surrounding NYC, to increase housing density. But of course that becomes a huge political issue for the NIMBYs who have the financial resources to tie everything up in court.

Its a big problem in upstate NY too. Was just reading about Kingston, which is 100 miles up the Hudson river at the east end of the Catskills and saw prices go through the roof when everyone wanted a country home during Covid. They're trying to bring in rent ceilings so that people who have lived there for decades won't have to up and leave because their town has suddenly turned into an upstate Brooklyn with corresponding doubling of rents. And the Catskill/Hudson valley region has also seen a big reduction in the availability of housing for locals due to Air BnB and VRBO catering to the weekend city people.

Its a tough issue.

Some of the ski towns and national park gateway towns out west have almost no affordable housing for their service employees. Most end up commuting hours each day to do low wage work in towns like Aspen and Jackson Hole.

[whitey]

Housing is a huge problem in the states too.

New York are trying to do something about it by forcing towns, especially in the areas surrounding NYC, to increase housing density. But of course that becomes a huge political issue for the NIMBYs who have the financial resources to tie everything up in court.

Its a big problem in upstate NY too. Was just reading about Kingston, which is 100 miles up the Hudson river at the east end of the Catskills and saw prices go through the roof when everyone wanted a country home during Covid. They're trying to bring in rent ceilings so that people who have lived there for decades won't have to up and leave because their town has suddenly turned into an upstate Brooklyn with corresponding doubling of rents. And the Catskill/Hudson valley region has also seen a big reduction in the availability of housing for locals due to Air BnB and VRBO catering to the weekend city people.

Its a tough issue.

Some of the ski towns and national park gateway towns out west have almost no affordable housing for their service employees. Most end up commuting hours each day to do low wage work in towns like Aspen and Jackson Hole.

I was in Hudson NY a few weeks ago

What a transformation. $1M + homes, a boutique hotel, Brooklyn transplants, chic boutiques

[J70]

About five years ago, before things went nuts, we were (wishfully) looking at someday getting a place around the Catskills, but that ship has sailed. I can only imagine what it must be like for the less well off people who are from those areas.

Adirondacks will be next. Even though it's a five hour drive from NYC on a good day!

I like Hudson and Rhineback and those towns east of the river, but the Rondout Valley west of Kingston and New Paltz is beautiful too. Reminds me a bit of Ireland.

[Itchy]

I don't get the outrage. If you're not paying your rent, out to f**k.

Out to live on the street is it? Did you read your history lad

[RedHand88]

I don't get the outrage. If you're not paying your rent, out to f**k.

Out to live on the street is it? Did you read your history lad

I really really hope this isn't an 1800s Ireland reference. It couldn't be.

[thewobbler]

Was diving yesterday and tuned into Newstalk about this.

The number of messages sent in along the lines of "I'm a landlord and now I can't pay the mortgage, won't someone think of me?", was laughable.

If your financial planning  involves shafting others from enjoying the basic human right of affordable shelter, well then f**k you. You deserve the hardest of times. And then some.

[Armagh18]

Was diving yesterday and tuned into Newstalk about this.

The number of messages sent in along the lines of "I'm a landlord and now I can't pay the mortgage, won't someone think of me?", was laughable.

If your financial planning  involves shafting others from enjoying the basic human right of affordable shelter, well then f**k you. You deserve the hardest of times. And then some.

Do all landlords shaft people? Has to be a balance. f**k the scroungers looking to live for free.

[Milltown Row2]

Was diving yesterday and tuned into Newstalk about this.

The number of messages sent in along the lines of "I'm a landlord and now I can't pay the mortgage, won't someone think of me?", was laughable.

If your financial planning  involves shafting others from enjoying the basic human right of affordable shelter, well then f**k you. You deserve the hardest of times. And then some.

Do all landlords shaft people? Has to be a balance. f**k the scroungers looking to live for free.

How many pay packets are you from losing your home?

[Itchy]

Was diving yesterday and tuned into Newstalk about this.

The number of messages sent in along the lines of "I'm a landlord and now I can't pay the mortgage, won't someone think of me?", was laughable.

If your financial planning  involves shafting others from enjoying the basic human right of affordable shelter, well then f**k you. You deserve the hardest of times. And then some.

Do all landlords shaft people? Has to be a balance. f**k the scroungers looking to live for free.

You are a classy individual. Not everyone is a scrounger, rent prices are out of control. People spending all their money in it and landlords are putting rent up. We are talking about families on the street. You'd have to be a heartless w**ker to think like you do