What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[general_lee]

The vast majority of Unionists like EG will never vote for a UI,  no matter what the benefits are (Remember the GFA achieved only approx 56% of the Unionist electorate).   
    That is just a fact. It will come right down to the wire 50+1. That is why arguments for parallel consent are being raised now, by the likes of John Bruton and some within Unionism, they are an impossibility to achieve and a permanent barrier to a UI.
      As Weareros said earlier, but mistake to let either government define the terms of when a border poll can be called. I
   Thems not the rules in the GFA.

Ah, but what are the benefits?
      Sorry for the quote,
The 'shared island' offers considerable economies of both scale and scope, which if harnessed dynamically would outweigh the overblown static costs of subventions," says Ibec chief executive Danny McCoy.
         It's basic economics and you rightly pointed out some potential benefits below.

It ]s easy to point to negatives like higher income tax and higher medical costs. I work in the FDI sector and know for absolute certainty that US MNCs would set up operations in the north and create high value employment - but hard to prove that it.

I don't know how true it is, but I have often heard that NI has an extremely high percentage of public sector workers- will they all be needed?

Yep almost 200,000 employed in ps. We definitely need a more dynamic private sector, but I guess free from Westminister control new measures could be out in place such as lowering corporation tax,  encouraging industriy specialisation by FDI or European Union grants.
         I suppose to me Dublin is at the centre of everything in Ireland. Cork, Galway, Limerick haven't provided any meaningful counter balance to this. Why not Belfast? This will hopefully be partly demonstrated when the protocol is finally agreed upon( and it most definable be,when Truss stops the silly games).

One example that comes to mind is the FAI and IFA might have 40-50 employees each. I've no clue what the real figure is, but a new combined association will only need max 60% of the combined workforce. There will be loads of bodies/associations, etc in the same position - so do we fire the 40%, or keep them on and pretend there's enough work for them all?

  Listen the fruits of Brexit will be felt soon enough in NI. Expect huge cuts in public sector spending in the next number of years. That goes for jobs, health care and free prescriptions.

I think we have a few teachers in the 6 on the board. How do they feel about teaching the Leaving Cert? Big deal or no problem?

Who says it will still be the leaving cert?  Will have to be agreed. Personally I like the German/Dutch model

For me, everything about a UI is about potential, huge potential. And I believe that within a decade it would prove to be an overwhelming success. But a lot of the concrete, certain stuff is short term pain. That's not good for a vote. And if we lose a vote, it'll be a long time before we get another one.


That's the thing nothing has even been discussed yet? We have no idea what the model will be of Unification. Actually really exciting the changes that could be introduced

If you offered the vast majority of Unionists £10k each they still won't vote for a UI. This isn't an economic argument for them. It's identity. The same way no Irishman would vote to become part of the UK. It's simply not going to happen.

There are plenty of unionists who can be persuaded. Not every unionist is a unionist in the traditional sense, many are simply unionist on the basis of pragmatism. i dare say there are even unionists on this forum who would be culturally Catholic but are happy with the status quo.

[seafoid]

The Plantation has always been a problem. Now is no different

[armaghniac]

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/ex-northern-ireland-secretary-suggests-there-may-be-grounds-soon-to-call-a-referendum-on-irish-re-unification-3856135

[seafoid]

In other places with polarisation the answer was to build institutions to bring people together. he GAA and the Scouts are 2 examples . Figuring this out for Unionists will be a challenge in the context of a UI.

[grounded]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx

There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.

At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
     They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
       They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI.  Would there be a  Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
  They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists.  But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
       Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever,  Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
      If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?

Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
         If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.

There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.

[weareros]

With the Alliance refusing invite to Ireland Future event, which is their prerogative, it's time for SDLP to realise they've lost a lot of nationalist gene pool votes to that party. Them winning a few percentage points back will be the difference between nationalists outpolling unionists in next election. Hopefully Colum will wise up.

[armaghniac]

The Newsletter is no help, you have to wonder about their business model since they pander to a shrinking ageing sector of the population and don't do much for the younger middle ground crowd who are growing in number. Perhaps the former still get the paper newspaper. As for Lowry, I am never quite sure if he is laying it on or is a loose cannon. His brother lives in Dublin, he surely knows that life in a UI would not be the end of the world.

[rrhf]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx

There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.

At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
     They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
       They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI.  Would there be a  Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
  They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists.  But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
       Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever,  Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
      If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?

Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
         If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.

There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.

Expect an organised 23 year old backlash against the GFA agreement supporters next year. The signatories to be painted as Lundys, an attempt to unite unionism and shed the soft middle under the DUP who refused to go in..

[Eamonnca1]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001cfvx

There's bin Lorry's meltdown on Nolan. 60 or 65% needed before any border poll can be called for. 'Good Friday agreement is wrong and unfair for Unionists'.

At the time of the GFA i was genuinely surprised that there was a Unionist Majority in favour of it 56-57% estimated.
     They were persuaded there would never be a Catholic majority or that Nationalist parties would never become the dominant force in Stormount. Essentially that there would never be the conditions for a United Ireland.
       They cannot get it into their heads that Nationalists in the North still would yearn for a UI.  Would there be a  Unionist Majority today in a GFA? I would bet not.
  They actually had it in their grasp to postpone the inevitable for much much longer, by making this place a fairer more equitable place for nationalists.  But they chose to drag their heals and be mean spirited as is unfortunately the Unionist way(with some small notable exceptions).
       Ultimately the DUP saw the writing on the wall and went for the one big thing that could lock NI into the UK for ever,  Brexit. It backfired spectacularly and propelled the argument for a United Ireland forward by a decade or so.
      If Brexit hadn't of happened would the Census have had as much of an impact?

Just a small note on polling and Lowry's obvious dislike of online polls(particularly Lucid talks) vs face to face polling. Any Nationalist who lives in the North would explain why they would prefer an online poll.
         If a BBC or UTV reporter and camera crew stopped you on the street and asked would you vote for a UI how many would actually want to be on TV saying yes. There is a strong sense of ' don't put your head above the paraphet' or I don't want to offend the neighbours ' sort of thing among Nationalists in the North and for a good reason!.

There has been a monumental shift in momentum and an acceptance within the Nationalist community that an AI is not some sort of wishy wasn't romantic notion but it is really happening.

There's a lot of truth in this. I remember Seamus Mallon in the 1990s talking about demographic trends and the long term implications of them. He warned unionists that they needed to "start negotiating now, from a position of strength, before it's too late." I think Trimble heeded the warning.

[Orior]

I see there is a planned discussion on what a new Ireland might look like.

It's hilarious that Allianance and Unionist parties will not attend because they are forever pointing out things that suggest they would be poorly treated in a new Ireland.

Perhaps they should have been deliberately excluded, then they would have something real to complain about.

[Eamonnca1]

Alliance has to tread a finer line than the UUP. They have to be seen as neutral on the constitutional question, so they're a bit more careful about which events they go to. Can't be seen to be attending anything that could be interpreted as a nationalist rally.

[grounded]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jon_ni72/status/1574008014692093952

The Irony of it all.

[Mayo Border]

Edwin Poots on Stephen Nolan Live tonight doesn't seem to understand that the Protocol was introduced by the UK government as part of their Brexit withdrawal deal.

[Armagh18]

Alliance has to tread a finer line than the UUP. They have to be seen as neutral on the constitutional question, so they're a bit more careful about which events they go to. Can't be seen to be attending anything that could be interpreted as a nationalist rally.

Surely if they wanted to be seen as neutral they would attend. By avoiding it they're showing their true Unionist colours.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

I've been saying on here for about 2 years i couldn't understand why people were slagging a nationalist for going to Westminster but voting a Unionist who would instead (alliance)..

The oddest type of people. And i don't care what people say but SF tried to reduce SDLP in Derry by encouraging transfers to alliance.

Twitter awash with these anti stoopers. Stupid for Stupids sake