Premier League 2023-2024

Started by Dire Ear, July 31, 2022, 12:39:27 PM

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thewobbler

Quote from: statto on October 19, 2023, 09:43:16 AM
Quote from: thewobbler on October 18, 2023, 10:01:10 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on October 18, 2023, 09:29:56 PM
Quote from: statto on October 18, 2023, 07:50:30 PM
Quote from: rodney trotter on October 18, 2023, 07:08:11 PMSandro Tonali facing a lengthy ban for betting. A lot of Italian players involved. Zaniolo of Villa also
how would these lads end up getting caught I presume it's all online ?


What's the protocol for cash betting? I mean , could you walk in  to a bookies with 10 grand  cash and stick it on  a horse? Or is there a  cash limit?

If you're in a position where a bookie will take £10k cash off you no questions asked, it's because all the questions were answered as they want, when you started punting heavily.

It'll likely be a case of player x transferring sizeable cash to mates a, b and c, who all deposit, make an unusual bet, then withdraw promptly. Player x probably doesn't even transfer the money, just makes the commitment. The bookies would know what's happened immediately. It's then over to authorities to make the case. If a, b and c do it twice, they're all sitting ducks.

I would have thought that there would have to be some evidence that the money has been transferred from Tonali  to Tonalis mate to place the bet.  Without knowing the betting patterns, surely if Tonali was transferring cash to mates and mates were putting bets on he couldn't be blamed on it without someone letting the cat out of the bag?

I wouldn't think it's that complicated a case to resolve.

Bookies' software will flag up unusual betting patterns immediately, and even if the AI misses it, you can guarantee that if there's a payment of 5 figures out the door, the trader will take a note of who and how.

If a man turns his fiver into £5k as a result of a 10 team acca, nobody in bookie land bats an eyelid.

If a large single bet is made on an important football match outcome, again no big deal. These big games are hard to fix. Just keep an eye on the customer's transactions for any pattern.

But within that match, the bookie will have hundreds of small markets that are much more easily influenced by an individual: players to be booked, number of corners, number of fouls. The bookies have designed these markets up to attract customers usually a) to be used as part of accumulators, or b) for in-game punting. So when someone places a large single bet on these things, it gets a little amber flag against it. Should they win, it turns crimson. Should they withdraw those winnings it burns bright red. Then every bet that person makes going forward has a burning red flag against it.

Should they win this way twice, and the same player is the subject of the bet, that's the case formed.





 

gawa316

Quote from: jcpen on October 19, 2023, 09:48:18 AMI reckon AC Milan knew what was going on when they sold him.

Was thinking the same thing...not often Italian sides sell there best players and/or Italian players want to move to the PL...even nowadays when the quality of the Italian league has dropped so much since the heydays of the 80/90's

statto

Quote from: thewobbler on October 19, 2023, 10:29:13 AM
Quote from: statto on October 19, 2023, 09:43:16 AM
Quote from: thewobbler on October 18, 2023, 10:01:10 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on October 18, 2023, 09:29:56 PM
Quote from: statto on October 18, 2023, 07:50:30 PM
Quote from: rodney trotter on October 18, 2023, 07:08:11 PMSandro Tonali facing a lengthy ban for betting. A lot of Italian players involved. Zaniolo of Villa also
how would these lads end up getting caught I presume it's all online ?


What's the protocol for cash betting? I mean , could you walk in  to a bookies with 10 grand  cash and stick it on  a horse? Or is there a  cash limit?

If you're in a position where a bookie will take £10k cash off you no questions asked, it's because all the questions were answered as they want, when you started punting heavily.

It'll likely be a case of player x transferring sizeable cash to mates a, b and c, who all deposit, make an unusual bet, then withdraw promptly. Player x probably doesn't even transfer the money, just makes the commitment. The bookies would know what's happened immediately. It's then over to authorities to make the case. If a, b and c do it twice, they're all sitting ducks.

I would have thought that there would have to be some evidence that the money has been transferred from Tonali  to Tonalis mate to place the bet.  Without knowing the betting patterns, surely if Tonali was transferring cash to mates and mates were putting bets on he couldn't be blamed on it without someone letting the cat out of the bag?

I wouldn't think it's that complicated a case to resolve.

Bookies' software will flag up unusual betting patterns immediately, and even if the AI misses it, you can guarantee that if there's a payment of 5 figures out the door, the trader will take a note of who and how.

If a man turns his fiver into £5k as a result of a 10 team acca, nobody in bookie land bats an eyelid.

If a large single bet is made on an important football match outcome, again no big deal. These big games are hard to fix. Just keep an eye on the customer's transactions for any pattern.

But within that match, the bookie will have hundreds of small markets that are much more easily influenced by an individual: players to be booked, number of corners, number of fouls. The bookies have designed these markets up to attract customers usually a) to be used as part of accumulators, or b) for in-game punting. So when someone places a large single bet on these things, it gets a little amber flag against it. Should they win, it turns crimson. Should they withdraw those winnings it burns bright red. Then every bet that person makes going forward has a burning red flag against it.

Should they win this way twice, and the same player is the subject of the bet, that's the case formed.





 
Thanks for the insight wobbler makes things a bit clearer. 

Hound

Quote from: AustinPowers on October 18, 2023, 09:29:56 PM
Quote from: statto on October 18, 2023, 07:50:30 PM
Quote from: rodney trotter on October 18, 2023, 07:08:11 PMSandro Tonali facing a lengthy ban for betting. A lot of Italian players involved. Zaniolo of Villa also
how would these lads end up getting caught I presume it's all online ?


What's the protocol for cash betting? I mean , could you walk in  to a bookies with 10 grand  cash and stick it on  a horse? Or is there a  cash limit?
I know for sure that bookies cannot pay out more than €2k cash unless you give them proof of ID and proof of address. I would guess it's the same if you want to make a cash bet of more than €2k.

That may help track down friends or family if there was suspicious betting patterns.

Of course if you are a successful gambler the bookies will quickly move to not accept your bets anyway.

Milltown Row2

Quote from: Hound on October 19, 2023, 03:21:30 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on October 18, 2023, 09:29:56 PM
Quote from: statto on October 18, 2023, 07:50:30 PM
Quote from: rodney trotter on October 18, 2023, 07:08:11 PMSandro Tonali facing a lengthy ban for betting. A lot of Italian players involved. Zaniolo of Villa also
how would these lads end up getting caught I presume it's all online ?


What's the protocol for cash betting? I mean , could you walk in  to a bookies with 10 grand  cash and stick it on  a horse? Or is there a  cash limit?
I know for sure that bookies cannot pay out more than €2k cash unless you give them proof of ID and proof of address. I would guess it's the same if you want to make a cash bet of more than €2k.

That may help track down friends or family if there was suspicious betting patterns.

Of course if you are a successful gambler the bookies will quickly move to not accept your bets anyway.

I'd say in most occasions it's not because the player wants to win money! He's already loaded to a point, but possibly more to do with outside pressure? Family, friends and so on.

The bookies do some complaining when the lose a fraction of what they take..

Tried to do my brother out of a lot money for an incorrect spelling of a horse, you couldn't take enough of them!!
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

statto

Story of two poor goalkeeper performances in Chelsea arsenal game.From what I have saw Rayas positional sense leaves alot to be desired.For the empty cheque book Chelse a have no number 9and Brighton's third choice keeper awful on both goals.Chelsea are starting to improve though.

lurganblue

Quote from: statto on October 21, 2023, 10:36:03 PMStory of two poor goalkeeper performances in Chelsea arsenal game.From what I have saw Rayas positional sense leaves alot to be desired.For the empty cheque book Chelse a have no number 9and Brighton's third choice keeper awful on both goals.Chelsea are starting to improve though.

2 strange signings for Arsenal in the summer and 2 that arent really working.  Did they need rayas and havertz? I dont think so.  If it wasnt for his suspension I think theyd have been in for Toney. Thankfully they didnt look towards Watkins.

J70

Quote from: statto on October 21, 2023, 10:36:03 PMStory of two poor goalkeeper performances in Chelsea arsenal game.From what I have saw Rayas positional sense leaves alot to be desired.For the empty cheque book Chelse a have no number 9and Brighton's third choice keeper awful on both goals.Chelsea are starting to improve though.

If you're talking specifically about the mishit cross, I disagree. 99 times out of 100 Raya would have been well set to claim the cross. Just because this one time the winger shanked it into the net doesn't make him wrong. Back in the day, Grobbelaar would come for everything and once or twice a season miss or mishandle a cross leading to a goal, but the Liverpool defense loved him coming out because most of the time it worked and made them more secure.

If it is a general criticism of Raya, you may be right - I don't watch him enough to debate that point.

statto

Quote from: J70 on October 23, 2023, 01:04:27 PM
Quote from: statto on October 21, 2023, 10:36:03 PMStory of two poor goalkeeper performances in Chelsea arsenal game.From what I have saw Rayas positional sense leaves alot to be desired.For the empty cheque book Chelse a have no number 9and Brighton's third choice keeper awful on both goals.Chelsea are starting to improve though.

If you're talking specifically about the mishit cross, I disagree. 99 times out of 100 Raya would have been well set to claim the cross. Just because this one time the winger shanked it into the net doesn't make him wrong. Back in the day, Grobbelaar would come for everything and once or twice a season miss or mishandle a cross leading to a goal, but the Liverpool defense loved him coming out because most of the time it worked and made them more secure.

If it is a general criticism of Raya, you may be right - I don't watch him enough to debate that point.
It was more a general observation from the spurs and city games as well. 

mrdeeds

Everton one charge and a twelve point deduction. Man City 115 charges and nothing.

J70

If convicted and it sticks, they'll need to hit the 50 point mark to stay up.

johnnycool

Quote from: J70 on October 25, 2023, 04:51:03 PMIf convicted and it sticks, they'll need to hit the 50 point mark to stay up.

That's not going to happen considering almost a 1/4 of the games have been played and they're on 7 points...

Armagh18

Quote from: mrdeeds on October 25, 2023, 04:11:56 PMEverton one charge and a twelve point deduction. Man City 115 charges and nothing.
that's a joke.

J70

Quote from: johnnycool on October 25, 2023, 05:07:25 PM
Quote from: J70 on October 25, 2023, 04:51:03 PMIf convicted and it sticks, they'll need to hit the 50 point mark to stay up.

That's not going to happen considering almost a 1/4 of the games have been played and they're on 7 points...


They'd have to go 12-7-10 or similar.


Not impossible now that Dyche seems to be making a bit of progress.

rodney trotter

The standard of teams in the bottom half is really poor so Everton would probaly still survive with a 12 deduction.

The 3 teams that were promoted, are probaly the worst 3 to go up ever. Add in Bournemouth who are awful