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Messages - blanketattack

#16
Kerry AET
Dublin AET
Derry AET
Armagh
#17
Quote from: Fuzzman on June 30, 2023, 03:43:31 PM
Yeah depends on who gets through but because there are a lot of ties that can't happen again then there are very likely semi final matchings.
If Derry and Tyrone win then they have to meet each other in the semi as neither can meet Armagh or Monaghan so the winners of Dubs v Mayo have to meet them.

If Derry, Kerry and the Dubs win then Derry could meet either Kerry or Dubs but not Armagh/Monaghan and this is why Derry fans will be supporting Tyrone on Saturday.  ;D

If Derry, Kerry and Mayo win then Kerry can't play Mayo again and Derry can't play Armagh/Monaghan so it will have to be Derry v Mayo/Kerry and Mayo/Kerry v Armagh/Monaghan.

So it looks like Derry will probably be meeting Kerry or the Dubs/Mayo in the semi final.
Sorry Cork fans but if ye get through then ye can't meet Kerry or Mayo.

If Derry win, then the semi-final:
Kerry/Tyrone v Mayo/Dublin 
can't happen regardless of who gets through.
#18
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 29, 2023, 03:45:07 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on June 29, 2023, 11:22:18 AM
Why can't Kerry met Dublin, last year set up no relevance this year?
If Derry beat Cork, Kerry can't meet Dublin because Derry can't meet Monaghan (Round 1) or Armagh (Ulster Final).
And if Derry can't meet Armagh/Monaghan then the opposite fixture in the semi can't occur either.
So in fact regardless of who comes out of Kerry-Tyrone and Dublin-Mayo, the fixture Kerry/Tyrone v Dublin/Mayo can't occur for the semi (if Derry beat Cork)
#19
Quote from: kickingmule on June 29, 2023, 10:59:46 AM
All that seems to be talked about ongoing at the minute is this amazing strength in depth of certain teams in the pot for Sam, personally I think it's all a load of nonsense, I have yet to see any county blessed in any regard to a strong bench. At the end of the day all teams will have 15 players at any one time on the field of play.

10 years ago I'd have agreed with you, but these days you've 13 players that sprint the full length of the pitch regularly depending on whether their team or the opposition team gets possession, plus keep ball is exhausting, particularly for the chasers, so some players will be absolutely beat after 55-60, plus injury time regularly extends the game to 77 minutes, so the fresh legs will be pivotal to a team.

At the same time, for a lot of the players just a fit workhouse is all that is needed to replace them. Someone who can run non-stop and handpass the ball accurately.
#20
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 29, 2023, 10:06:00 AM
I don't think Cork are ready for Derry.
Roscommon are a poor version of Derry. Even Derry in the league won't prepare Cork for what's coming Sunday.
I wonder is Rory Gallagher still being sought for input from the Derry management on the QT or is he completely gone?
And sure, isn't David Clifford only a poor man's Shane McGuigan if you listen to Paul Flynn?
#21
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 28, 2023, 10:04:17 PM
Quote from: GAABoardMod5 on June 28, 2023, 09:36:52 PM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 28, 2023, 09:28:15 PM
Quote from: GAABoardMod5 on June 28, 2023, 09:18:14 PM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 28, 2023, 08:45:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 27, 2023, 09:04:51 AM
5 times between 2013 and last year  the same 4 counties - Dublin, Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone - featured in the All Ireland semi finals.
This was the firm .
Now Dublin are playing Mayo and Kerry are playing Tyrone. So there are 2 semi final spots for new teams. If the winners of Dublin/Mayo were to play Kerry/Tyrone in the semi there would be a slot in the final for a new team.

If (Derry beat Cork) then
{    the winner of Dublin/Mayo can't meet the winner of Tyrone/Kerry in the semi-final.
     If Tyrone win, they automatically meet Derry in the semi-final with no need for a draw.
     If Kerry win, they can't meet Dublin or Mayo in the semi-final, Kerry would have a 50:50 chance of Derry or the winner of Armagh/Monaghan
}


Unless all 3 teams from Group 1 win their quarter-finals, ie Kerry, Cork and Mayo.  Then 2 of them must meet in a semi-final.

Yes, hence my "If Derry beat Cork" predicate

OK...didn't see that "If Derry beat Cork" applied to all 3 lines of your post.
OK, now fixed for better legibility 🤓
#22
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 28, 2023, 09:28:15 PM
Quote from: GAABoardMod5 on June 28, 2023, 09:18:14 PM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 28, 2023, 08:45:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 27, 2023, 09:04:51 AM
5 times between 2013 and last year  the same 4 counties - Dublin, Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone - featured in the All Ireland semi finals.
This was the firm .
Now Dublin are playing Mayo and Kerry are playing Tyrone. So there are 2 semi final spots for new teams. If the winners of Dublin/Mayo were to play Kerry/Tyrone in the semi there would be a slot in the final for a new team.

If Derry beat Cork, then the winner of Dublin/Mayo can't meet the winner of Tyrone/Kerry in the semi-final.
If Tyrone win, they automatically meet Derry in the semi-final with no need for a draw.
If Kerry win, they can't meet Dublin or Mayo in the semi-final, Kerry would have a 50:50 chance of Derry or the winner of Armagh/Monaghan

Unless all 3 teams from Group 1 win their quarter-finals, ie Kerry, Cork and Mayo.  Then 2 of them must meet in a semi-final.

Yes, hence my "If Derry beat Cork" predicate
#23
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 28, 2023, 08:45:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 27, 2023, 09:04:51 AM
5 times between 2013 and last year  the same 4 counties - Dublin, Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone - featured in the All Ireland semi finals.
This was the firm .
Now Dublin are playing Mayo and Kerry are playing Tyrone. So there are 2 semi final spots for new teams. If the winners of Dublin/Mayo were to play Kerry/Tyrone in the semi there would be a slot in the final for a new team.

If Derry beat Cork, then the winner of Dublin/Mayo can't meet the winner of Tyrone/Kerry in the semi-final.
If Tyrone win, they automatically meet Derry in the semi-final with no need for a draw.
If Kerry win, they can't meet Dublin or Mayo in the semi-final, Kerry would have a 50:50 chance of Derry or the winner of Armagh/Monaghan
#24
Quote from: yellowcard on June 26, 2023, 08:02:35 PM
Quote from: NotedObserver on June 26, 2023, 07:57:58 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on June 26, 2023, 07:41:27 PM
Nine times out of ten Kerry would have won that match in 2021 but everything fell Tyrone's way on the day and fair play to them for capitalising. But they've produced nothing since then to back it up. Man for man Kerry are much superior to Tyrone and I actually think they will win this very comfortably as Tyrone are not great in defence.

Tyrone were down to 14 men for 2 black card periods and there wasn't much in the game at all.

It was a similar type smash and grab that Donegal carried out on Dublin in 2014. Tyrone got goals at the right time but Kerry were very naive defensively. That's why they brought Tally in since then to shore them up. Tally will have the inside knowledge needed and Kerry will not be as naive again.

Yeah, that Donegal team weren't really up to much as was shown in the final, but Tyrone in 2021 showed their worth in the final.
#25
Quote from: Redhand Santa on June 27, 2023, 10:42:33 AM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 27, 2023, 10:37:54 AM
Quote from: Blowitupref on June 26, 2023, 07:52:47 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on June 26, 2023, 07:41:27 PM
Nine times out of ten Kerry would have won that match in 2021 but everything fell Tyrone's way on the day and fair play to them for capitalising. But they've produced nothing since then to back it up. Man for man Kerry are much superior to Tyrone and I actually think they will win this very comfortably as Tyrone are not great in defence.

Have beaten Kerry twice in the league since that 2021 championship meeting. In March against a full strength Kerry 1-15 to 2-8
And last year in Killarney 1-15 to 2-11 the only league or championship defeat Kerry had in 2022.


The game that was a dead rubber for Kerry where they rested lots of players and had the league final the following week, and that's somehow supposed to play a factor?

It'll play no factor but that's not exactly right about resting lots of players. They were happy to relegate Tyrone and 9 outfield starters from the All Ireland final started the match (including Clifford) and another three came of the bench.

Rested 6 = lots.
You think Kerry would prefer to relegate Tyrone than Dublin???
#26
Quote from: Blowitupref on June 26, 2023, 07:52:47 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on June 26, 2023, 07:41:27 PM
Nine times out of ten Kerry would have won that match in 2021 but everything fell Tyrone's way on the day and fair play to them for capitalising. But they've produced nothing since then to back it up. Man for man Kerry are much superior to Tyrone and I actually think they will win this very comfortably as Tyrone are not great in defence.

Have beaten Kerry twice in the league since that 2021 championship meeting. In March against a full strength Kerry 1-15 to 2-8
And last year in Killarney 1-15 to 2-11 the only league or championship defeat Kerry had in 2022.


The game that was a dead rubber for Kerry where they rested lots of players and had the league final the following week, and that's somehow supposed to play a factor?
#27
The loser of this game should be cheering on the winner to go on and win the All-Ireland.
The 4 times Tyrone won the All-Ireland, Kerry won the following year.
The last time Kerry won 2 in a row, Tyrone won the following year and their 2 in a row before that, Tyrone went 7 pts up in the following final, albeit ended up losing by 8, however I'm sure if Tyrone went 7 pts up in the 2024 final they'd go on to win it, plus if they were awarded a penalty they wouldn't take their point.
#28
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 26, 2023, 05:06:07 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on June 26, 2023, 04:51:04 PM
Quote from: blanketattack on June 26, 2023, 04:27:17 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on June 26, 2023, 03:52:50 PM
Quote from: joemamas on June 26, 2023, 03:22:29 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on June 26, 2023, 09:12:25 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 26, 2023, 08:50:16 AM
Mc Carthy says there may be a draw for the semi-finals.

Bit mad that.

Tis mad alright , Ted

So , in  what scenario would there  NOT be a draw?

Exactly, seems like a stupid statement.

If Tyrone, Armagh and Derry win then there's no need for a draw. It will be Tyrone v Derry and Armagh v winner of other match. Not confident on that but it's a way to avoid a draw.

Just Tyrone and Derry alone winning stops the need for a draw.
Neither can face Armagh or Monaghan so have to face each other.
So Dublin/Mayo v Armagh/Monaghan would be the other semi.

Why can't Tyrone play Monaghan?  I thought repeat pairings only applied to the all Ireland series and provincial finals?  That's the rule that applied to the groups anyway.

Larry McCarthy this morning and GAA website both said any previous Championship meetings will be avoided if possible,.
Group stage was too complicated to stop repeat pairings besides Provincial Finals, so Derry v Monaghan was a repeat pairing.
#29
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 26, 2023, 04:27:17 PM
Quote from: David McKeown on June 26, 2023, 03:52:50 PM
Quote from: joemamas on June 26, 2023, 03:22:29 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on June 26, 2023, 09:12:25 AM
Quote from: marty34 on June 26, 2023, 08:50:16 AM
Mc Carthy says there may be a draw for the semi-finals.

Bit mad that.

Tis mad alright , Ted

So , in  what scenario would there  NOT be a draw?

Exactly, seems like a stupid statement.

If Tyrone, Armagh and Derry win then there's no need for a draw. It will be Tyrone v Derry and Armagh v winner of other match. Not confident on that but it's a way to avoid a draw.

Just Tyrone and Derry alone winning stops the need for a draw.
Neither can face Armagh or Monaghan so have to face each other.
So Dublin/Mayo v Armagh/Monaghan would be the other semi.
#30
GAA Discussion / Re: Sam Maguire permutations
June 26, 2023, 12:00:38 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on June 26, 2023, 11:41:53 AM
Paddy power have times on.

Saturday
Derry v Cork 4pm
Armagh v Monaghan 6.15pm

Sunday
Kerry v Tyrone 1.45pm
Dublin v Mayo 4pm

Don't know if they know something or if it's a mistake.

Not a mistake, bookies put the fixtures up straight away with no accuracy of dates or times just to get punters in with the publicity bounce of the draw, then change them accordingly.

Bet365 have Cork and Kerry on the Saturday with the games at 3pm and 5pm.
Boylesports have all 4 games on at 5pm on the Saturday. I guess they think it's a Royal Rumble type event with all 8 teams.