Well-put-together piece here on the famine* and the long term effects.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wViBPPjEdD8
Some fascinating alternative history possibilities here.
Without the famine, the population of the island could be as high as 36 million. I've seen some estimates as high as 40 million. Since there's about 42 million around the world claiming Irish ancestry, that sounds about right. That'd be far bigger than Australia (26m), far more than Netherlands (17m), not far behind Poland (39m). 36 million people living on the island would mean the place would be a lot more crowded, much more urban. Pick a town, any town, multiply its current population by about 4 (roughly speaking), and that's what you'd be looking at. 5 million in Dublin, 2.5m in Belfast, 0.8m in Cork, etc.. Even the small towns would be dramatically different. Lurgan would have 92,000 people living in it.
The country's influence on the world would be a whole lot bigger. Being more urbanized, it'd be more feasible to run public transport with all the big cities, so the railway network may well be bigger than it was in the 1950s instead of smaller. The place would look more like England or Japan in terms of how people live.
Without the famine, would there have been so much enthusiasm for home rule? Would the push for independence have looked more like what Scotland's trying to do now? Would we have left the UK regardless? Even if famine relief had been allowed, if mass starvation had been averted, there were still plenty of policies dating back to penal times that would have been fueling Irish resentment, so I'd say the push for independence would have happened regardless.
The famine was devastating to the Irish language. Without the mass starvation and emigration, I'd say Irish would have hung in there and today the Irish would be speaking English as a second language just like they do on the continent. We'd have a completely distinct sense of ourselves and probably less likely to be following English soccer teams, Scottish soccer teams, or consuming English media.
Would partition still have happened? Northern protestants would have been a much smaller minority in the early twentieth century. If the Brits were to partition the place, they probably would have carved out a smaller territory (say, Antrim and Down) that would still have included more than enough resentful fenians to oppose partition, particularly in Belfast which they were never going to cede. The unionists, being who they are, probably still wouldn't have been able to help themselves and would have discriminated against the catholics, so you'd see an alternate version of the Troubles playing out in a smaller area.
The diaspora would be a lot smaller. I wonder if the Irish would be as influential in Washington if they hadn't moved across the Atlantic in such big numbers.
Defence policy would be very different since we'd be 3 or 4 times bigger than Sweden where they build their own jets. We'd be bigger than Austria and Hungary combined. Energy policy would be very different since we'd be 4 or 5 times bigger than Norway.
Would the GAA still exist? I'd say yes, since soccer, rugby and cricket were making in-roads in Ireland when their respective bodies were founded regardless. The push for a Gaelic revival might be a bit more muted than what we got since the language would still have been going strong, but the influx of foreign games would still have motivated people to codify Gaelic games and get them organized. Counter-intuitively, Gaelic games would have probably made its way into foreign communities in a more widespread way since the Irish communities abroad wouldn't have been so large and self-contained. The same dynamics that spread English sports around the world (small number of people traveling abroad, inviting locals to play to make up the numbers) would have come into play, so Gaelic games would probably have a higher profile on the world stage, probably as big as Rugby is today.
I think it's fascinating to think about, and what was robbed of us. What might have been if we were allowed to control our own destiny.
*Some people find this term "famine" objectionable because they think it implies that it was a natural disaster, which we all know it wasn't. The word means a scarcity of food and does not refer only to natural disasters. Famines are almost never natural disasters, so I hope we don't get derailed into a semantics match.
Fermanagh would win Ulster.
Less amalgamations.
Mayo would have a brave few all Irelands.
No Celtic or rangers
JFK wouldn't have been assassinated. Or born, even
The Fields of Athenry wouldn't have been written, nor would it be sung at Celtic Park (but that wouldn't exist anyway)
'Taking the soup' wouldn't have been a saying
The England football team wouldn't be full of players of Irish descent
The Ireland football team wouldn't be full of players of English descent
The question is less about the Famine than about the Brits.
If there had been no Famine there would have been no occupation and there would have been a sustainable food supply. Population growth pre 1845 would have been lower.
Would there have been an industrial policy ? Emigration would have been lower. The influence of the church would have been lower. Sectarian tension in the North would have been lower. Cavan would not have won 5 Sam's.
Tyrone would have won their first all Ireland earlier.
https://youtu.be/cxeAr3n2Ous
Derry might have more than one all ireland as they could draw on a greater player pool from Derry city due to no soccer as opposed to relying on south Derry to provide the majority of players.
We'd have run out of land to grow spuds on so emigration to the US and elsewhere would have become necessary from the 1850s.
The population wouldn't have kept growing to be 40 million. Prosperity would have meant smaller family sizes.
Lurgan would have 92,000 people living in it.
Imagine 92,000 Lurganites running around. Christ the night.
Quote from: Rossfan on September 25, 2022, 09:41:25 AM
We'd have run out of land to grow spuds on so emigration to the US and elsewhere would have become necessary from the 1850s.
Food would be imported since the place would be more industrialised
Quote from: trailer on September 25, 2022, 04:06:14 PM
Lurgan would have 92,000 people living in it.
Imagine 92,000 Lurganites running around. Christ the night.
Just wait till you hear about Portadown...
Scotland didn't have a famine. It benefited from the Empire and industrialised from the 1850s on. It built great infrastructure and was very advanced.
The industrial infrastructure was dismantled in the 1980s.
Ireland is richer than Scotland.
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 25, 2022, 04:06:48 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 25, 2022, 09:41:25 AM
We'd have run out of land to grow spuds on so emigration to the US and elsewhere would have become necessary from the 1850s.
Food would be imported since the place would be more industrialised
Who would have been doing this industrialising?
Quote from: Rossfan on September 25, 2022, 05:32:45 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 25, 2022, 04:06:48 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 25, 2022, 09:41:25 AM
We'd have run out of land to grow spuds on so emigration to the US and elsewhere would have become necessary from the 1850s.
Food would be imported since the place would be more industrialised
Who would have been doing this industrialising?
Bigger population, bigger economy, plenty of workers, etc.. More attractive to capital.
The population was pauperised. Most Croppies didn't go to university. They weren't fit to work in factories.
I don't know how long it took Irish immigrants in the US to become comfortable.
Right. But when the factories started to appear, the factory owners took it on themselves to build housing for the workers, which is where all those rows of terraced houses came from in towns and cities up and down the country. The businessmen were capable of giving the workers the bare minimum they needed to be able to do the work for them.
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 08:52:35 AM
The population was pauperised.
Correct .
Probably 2 million existing on 2 acre plots of spuds.
Another 4 million not much better off.
Main source of income for the well heeled was renting their massive estates.
The starvation of Ireland required the deployment of more than half (67 regiments) of Britains 128 regiment army to remove Irelands food at gun point. Ireland had an abundance of food.
I use the word genocide, famine sounds like a smear to me.
In 1840 the level of productivity the population of Ireland (except the north East) was at was comparable to rural Uttar Pradesh today. There wasn't just the famine. There was the economic system that produced it. You could argue that the after effects lasted until now with the excessive power of the church .
An alternative history without the famine would have required a different geographical location a very long way from England.
Quote from: Baile an tuaigh on September 26, 2022, 07:48:51 PM
The starvation of Ireland required the deployment of more than half (67 regiments) of Britains 128 regiment army to remove Irelands food at gun point. Ireland had an abundance of food.
.
It had but the poor devils who needed it most had no money to buy any of it.
Also prices went sky high as the greasy till merchants cashed in.
Quote from: Baile an tuaigh on September 26, 2022, 07:48:51 PM
The starvation of Ireland required the deployment of more than half (67 regiments) of Britains 128 regiment army to remove Irelands food at gun point. Ireland had an abundance of food.
I use the word genocide, famine sounds like a smear to me.
It is virtually impossible to have a famine in Ireland. There are just to many substitutes for a failed crop.
In fairness the British kindly set-up work-houses to comfort the starving.
James Joyce was right though, Ireland had an advanced culture very early and for the past millennium Ireland's history is truly nightmarish. Joyce had lived through part of the nightmare, observing how the British government partly through Ireland's Catholic Church "hierarchy" and Anglo Irish toadies managed by slander and hypocrisy destroy Parnell and Ireland's hope for justice. England turned Ireland into a slaughter house of starvelings during the 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. It's depressing to learn true history but if you want to learn the truth
Joyce was born only 30 years after the famine, so it would have been as recent in the collective memory for his generation as WWII was for us. He'd have known people who lived through it and it would have loomed larger over things than it does today.
Quote from: ONeill on September 24, 2022, 10:19:39 PM
Fermanagh would win Ulster.
Prior to the famine, Armagh was the most densely populated county, but that could never have been sustained particularly when the linen trade started to contract.
Quote from: Baile an tuaigh on September 27, 2022, 12:05:12 AM
James Joyce was right though, Ireland had an advanced culture very early and for the past millennium Ireland's history is truly nightmarish. Joyce had lived through part of the nightmare, observing how the British government partly through Ireland's Catholic Church "hierarchy" and Anglo Irish toadies managed by slander and hypocrisy destroy Parnell and Ireland's hope for justice. England turned Ireland into a slaughter house of starvelings during the 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. It's depressing to learn true history but if you want to learn the truth
Ukraine has a similar abusive relationship with Russia .
Quote from: Rossfan on September 26, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 08:52:35 AM
The population was pauperised.
Correct .
Probably 2 million existing on 2 acre plots of spuds.
Another 4 million not much better off.
Main source of income for the well heeled was renting their massive estates.
The battle of Aughrim was 1691. The first landlord estate was established in 1720.
The famine was 1840s. The estates didn't last much longer
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 10:46:56 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 26, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 08:52:35 AM
The population was pauperised.
Correct .
Probably 2 million existing on 2 acre plots of spuds.
Another 4 million not much better off.
Main source of income for the well heeled was renting their massive estates.
The battle of Aughrim was 1691. The first landlord estate was established in 1720.
The famine was 1840s. The estates didn't last much longer
It was the land acts that did for them. There's an idea the British establishment turned its back on the Irish landlords after the famine because they had failed to manage the population properly, and Ireland was still a restive country.
Quote from: burdizzo on February 27, 2023, 01:07:45 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 10:46:56 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 26, 2022, 05:18:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 26, 2022, 08:52:35 AM
The population was pauperised.
Correct .
Probably 2 million existing on 2 acre plots of spuds.
Another 4 million not much better off.
Main source of income for the well heeled was renting their massive estates.
The battle of Aughrim was 1691. The first landlord estate was established in 1720.
The famine was 1840s. The estates didn't last much longer
It was the land acts that did for them. There's an idea the British establishment turned its back on the Irish landlords after the famine because they had failed to manage the population properly, and Ireland was still a restive country.
It was organisation first. Building on the spirit of the whiteboys a century before. Led by visionaries like Davitt.
So far ahead of their time. Scotland still argues about tenure.
If you have a spare couple of minutes watch Kevin whelans interview about the famine on the Tommy Tiernan show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyLQJ3F5ues
If there had not been a famine, the Mayo would surely have won Sam in the last 70 years.
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2023, 03:58:22 PM
If there had not been a famine, the Mayo would surely have won Sam in the last 70 years.
But they won All Irelands after the Famine, I don't understand the logic?
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 27, 2023, 04:49:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2023, 03:58:22 PM
If there had not been a famine, the Mayo would surely have won Sam in the last 70 years.
But they won All Irelands after the Famine, I don't understand the logic?
Think about it....
In the economic system countries are either core or periphery. The Netherlands and England are core. Eastern Europe is periphery.
Ireland didn't have any coal or iron ore so no source of internal capital. Ireland was peripheral. How would it have become core ?
Quote from: Armagh18 on February 27, 2023, 05:33:14 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 27, 2023, 04:49:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2023, 03:58:22 PM
If there had not been a famine, the Mayo would surely have won Sam in the last 70 years.
But they won All Irelands after the Famine, I don't understand the logic?
Think about it....
You are going to have to spoon feed me the logic.
If population was 4x Gaelic would be professional and teams would be as per soccer, not based on county.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 08:14:27 PM
If population was 4x Gaelic would be professional and teams would be as per soccer, not based on county.
Then there would be no County system that evolved from the club system, maybe a Castlebar FC that would be the local representitive.
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 27, 2023, 08:20:18 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 08:14:27 PM
If population was 4x Gaelic would be professional and teams would be as per soccer, not based on county.
Then there would be no County system that evolved from the club system, maybe a Castlebar FC that would be the local representitive.
It would be far less local. Maybe the administration would be more professional. 8)
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 09:42:29 PM
Quote from: From the Bunker on February 27, 2023, 08:20:18 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 08:14:27 PM
If population was 4x Gaelic would be professional and teams would be as per soccer, not based on county.
Then there would be no County system that evolved from the club system, maybe a Castlebar FC that would be the local representitive.
It would be far less local. Maybe the administration would be more professional. 8)
Ballina Stephenites were the pace-setters in Mayo originally. That's where Mayo got the Green and red!
Quote from: Orior on February 27, 2023, 10:16:56 AM
Quote from: ONeill on September 24, 2022, 10:19:39 PM
Fermanagh would win Ulster.
Prior to the famine, Armagh was the most densely populated county, but that could never have been sustained particularly when the linen trade started to contract.
I'm not sure about that. Industry can stick around in a different form long after the original business is gone. Belfast is still a decent size long after the heyday of shipbuilding. Ditto for Glasgow. Towns like Lurgan that were linen powerhouses still held onto a textile industry into the 1990s, and are still quite industrial.
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 07:26:02 PM
In the economic system countries are either core or periphery. The Netherlands and England are core. Eastern Europe is periphery.
Ireland didn't have any coal or iron ore so no source of internal capital. Ireland was peripheral. How would it have become core ?
If the Navan-Kingscourt railway line had made it as far north as Carrickmacross and Castleblayney, and a direct line added from Armagh to Dungannon, Coalisland would have had its rail connection to Dublin. The coal industry in the area may have grown a lot more.
As for the Netherlands, it may be sitting on the giant Groningen oil field now, but its source of wealth originally was its ability to trade with the rest of the world. You don't necessarily need natural resources to become 'core' as you put it. Venice was the same, it was another trading powerhouse in its day.
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 27, 2023, 10:35:53 PM
If the Navan-Kingscourt railway line had made it as far north as Carrickmacross and Castleblayney, and a direct line added from Armagh to Dungannon, Coalisland would have had its rail connection to Dublin. The coal industry in the area may have grown a lot more.
This is a hugely interesting atlas looking at transport and the economy is pre famine Ireland
https://digitalcollections.tcd.ie/concern/works/tx31qk36n?locale=en
their proposal for a Dublin-Belfast rail line was via Navan Kingscourt, Carricmacross, Castleblayney and Armagh. This would have reflected the capacity of 1830s steam engines which could not have easily faced the climb to the Gap of the North.
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 27, 2023, 10:35:53 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 27, 2023, 07:26:02 PM
In the economic system countries are either core or periphery. The Netherlands and England are core. Eastern Europe is periphery.
Ireland didn't have any coal or iron ore so no source of internal capital. Ireland was peripheral. How would it have become core ?
If the Navan-Kingscourt railway line had made it as far north as Carrickmacross and Castleblayney, and a direct line added from Armagh to Dungannon, Coalisland would have had its rail connection to Dublin. The coal industry in the area may have grown a lot more.
As for the Netherlands, it may be sitting on the giant Groningen oil field now, but its source of wealth originally was its ability to trade with the rest of the world. You don't necessarily need natural resources to become 'core' as you put it. Venice was the same, it was another trading powerhouse in its day.
You either need resources or location. Both drive core status. Venice is in the Po Valley. Portadown is not.
Ireland is on the edge of Europe. The Netherlands is not. It has the Rhine and is between England and Germany.
Ireland had SFA human capital in 1830. Even in 1921 the decision making and preparation of the treaty team was shite. The Brits ran rings around them.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/tension-between-unionist-hearts-and-pockets-as-relevant-today-as-100-years-ago-1.4694244
The Irish delegates led by Arthur Griffith were poorly prepared and, unlike the British side, lacked an opening position paper. As the doyen of Anglo-Irish historical analysis, Nicholas Mansergh was later to note, "the basic paper at any conference is apt to determine the parameters of subsequent discussion . . . This was to prove no exception."