Landlordism 2.0

Started by seafoid, May 05, 2021, 08:47:32 AM

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Angelo

Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 10:16:19 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 17, 2021, 10:10:34 AM
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.

GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

johnnycool

Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 11:03:32 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 10:16:19 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 17, 2021, 10:10:34 AM
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.

Hard to fault the roads west and south out of Dublin as Cork is linked with Motorway the whole way and so is Galway. Can't say I know much about telecoms and the likes but on the face of it infrastructure isn't too bad IMO.

shark

Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 11:51:35 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 11:03:32 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 10:16:19 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 17, 2021, 10:10:34 AM
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.

Hard to fault the roads west and south out of Dublin as Cork is linked with Motorway the whole way and so is Galway. Can't say I know much about telecoms and the likes but on the face of it infrastructure isn't too bad IMO.

The roads in to Dublin are good, sure. And maybe they won't be quite as busy as pre-pandemic. But still, rail is preferable for commuting if it is done properly, but it's not. For example, Mullingar is just 50 miles from Dublin City centre - but the morning trains take 90 mins to get to Connolly. It should be at least 40% quicker. Kilkenny should be a doable round trip on train - but it's not. These are 20,000+ population towns that are not that expensive to buy and live in. Especially on Dublin salaries.
Maybe these trips will be more doable for those who will be on a more hybrid office/remote model , post pandemic.

seafoid

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/i-ve-spent-55-000-in-rent-millennials-share-experiences-of-the-property-crisis-1.4564258

My husband is in his 40s, we want to have children. We have already waited years. We have no space for children or security and it is unlikely to happen for us now.
'We'd love to start a family of our own but unless we're willing to house share with more people, there are no options.'
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

johnnycool

Quote from: shark on May 17, 2021, 12:09:39 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 11:51:35 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 11:03:32 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 10:34:13 AM
Quote from: Angelo on May 17, 2021, 10:16:19 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 17, 2021, 10:10:34 AM
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.

Hard to fault the roads west and south out of Dublin as Cork is linked with Motorway the whole way and so is Galway. Can't say I know much about telecoms and the likes but on the face of it infrastructure isn't too bad IMO.

The roads in to Dublin are good, sure. And maybe they won't be quite as busy as pre-pandemic. But still, rail is preferable for commuting if it is done properly, but it's not. For example, Mullingar is just 50 miles from Dublin City centre - but the morning trains take 90 mins to get to Connolly. It should be at least 40% quicker. Kilkenny should be a doable round trip on train - but it's not. These are 20,000+ population towns that are not that expensive to buy and live in. Especially on Dublin salaries.
Maybe these trips will be more doable for those who will be on a more hybrid office/remote model , post pandemic.

How about looking at it the other way round and set up a job market in Mullingar rather than everything being Dublin centric.

thebigfella

There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.

Hound

Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won't change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don't need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

johnnycool

Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.

There's not much point earning big bucks in Dublin when you have to spunk most of it on rent/mortgage and the extra cost of living.

Young families not able to afford to rent let alone buy bigger properties to allow them to have kids.. Move the jobs out of Dublin and make it viable for big business to do so and the housing market in Dublin will cool down a good bit but maybe some people don't want that.




shark

Quote from: Hound on May 17, 2021, 02:20:28 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won't change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don't need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

imtommygunn

The pandemic is a game changer up north too with tech companies IMO. Only the untrusting ones, aka fintech, won't allow people the flexibility to do what you're doing - it's what I plan to do too.

thebigfella

Quote from: Hound on May 17, 2021, 02:20:28 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won't change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don't need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is but a 40 year old perspective vs a 25 year olds is much different.

There is no mindset that you need to be in Dublin to be regarded as successful, you do need to be in Dublin in some industries to open up a bigger pool of potential jobs or careers. That's no different to any other country and major cities.

Decentralisation is not the answer and certainly not if the infrastructure is not in place for big companies. Remote working will be the way forward because it gives people the option to choose where they life and whether the higher cost of living is worth it.

seafoid

Quote from: johnnycool on May 17, 2021, 02:23:41 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.

There's not much point earning big bucks in Dublin when you have to spunk most of it on rent/mortgage and the extra cost of living.

Young families not able to afford to rent let alone buy bigger properties to allow them to have kids.. Move the jobs out of Dublin and make it viable for big business to do so and the housing market in Dublin will cool down a good bit but maybe some people don't want that.
Not sure they don't want it.
Everything is centralised under the current economic system. Peripheral areas are ignored. It is the same in France, the UK, Spain, Italy ....
When the system changes the periphery will get some attention.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

imtommygunn

bigfella san francisco is causing some issues in tech companies in terms of very high earners can no afford to live in "the bay" so this is changing the thought process in terms of offices etc there. It will be interesting to see if that follows through elsewhere.

johnnycool

Quote from: imtommygunn on May 17, 2021, 02:44:12 PM
The pandemic is a game changer up north too with tech companies IMO. Only the untrusting ones, aka fintech, won't allow people the flexibility to do what you're doing - it's what I plan to do too.

Hearing that there's plenty of free office space in Belfast ATM and the possibility of a few companies reducing their office space requirements and going for a hot desk approach.

Angelo

Quote from: shark on May 17, 2021, 02:39:46 PM
Quote from: Hound on May 17, 2021, 02:20:28 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on May 17, 2021, 01:54:29 PM
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won't change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don't need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

A 400k property would require a combined salary of 100k per annum and a deposit of at least 40k.

Now say that couple are earning 100k a year together and are currently renting their own place in Dublin at 2k a week.

After tax, they might be seeing 70k a year, would that be a fair estimate?

So 24k of their after tax earnings (35%) of what they earn in a year is dead money on rent. Now they have to save up 40k - on their salaries it will probably take about 4 years if they starting from scratch which they likely would be if they are a young couple based in Dublin.

Running a car is expensive, insurance, tax, fuel, services - could be another 3-4k a year, possibly x2 for them. The alternative of public transport to and from work is likely going to be return a similar enough cost.

Utility bills - heating, electricity, bins, broadband, TV. Probably another 4-5k there in a year, possibly more.

Sot that's another 10-15k gone. You're probably now at 40k.

What would groceries be in a year? Would 5k cover a couple for the year?

Now you're at 45k of your 70k wrapped up and that's just on your basic needs.

How many weddings would a young couple have in a year? Anything from 3-4 to 7-8 I'd say. Between stags, hens and weddings probably the guts of 1k each time.

Medical expenses? Health insurance?

Gym memberships, playing sports, holidays, social life, getting a few non-essential items through the year?

Every cent you earn is gone if you want to live an anywhere near decent standard of life if you're stuck in the rental bubble in Dublin.

And that's a couple on decent jobs - just forget it for a single person, don't even go there.
GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL