Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - shark

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 84
1
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: May 18, 2021, 04:13:59 PM »
There won't be much liquidity in the market. One big transfer could have some sort of domino effect - but it's hard to see how it plays out. Kane, Haaland, Mbappe, Sancho, etc. They can't all move clubs. Barca and Madrid will only be able to buy big if they are willing to borrow at hefty interest rates. Doesn't seem like the most prudent move right now.

2
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 17, 2021, 03:53:38 PM »
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won’t change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don’t need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

A 400k property would require a combined salary of 100k per annum and a deposit of at least 40k.

Now say that couple are earning 100k a year together and are currently renting their own place in Dublin at 2k a week.

After tax, they might be seeing 70k a year, would that be a fair estimate?

So 24k of their after tax earnings (35%) of what they earn in a year is dead money on rent. Now they have to save up 40k - on their salaries it will probably take about 4 years if they starting from scratch which they likely would be if they are a young couple based in Dublin.

Running a car is expensive, insurance, tax, fuel, services - could be another 3-4k a year, possibly x2 for them. The alternative of public transport to and from work is likely going to be return a similar enough cost.

Utility bills - heating, electricity, bins, broadband, TV. Probably another 4-5k there in a year, possibly more.

Sot that's another 10-15k gone. You're probably now at 40k.

What would groceries be in a year? Would 5k cover a couple for the year?

Now you're at 45k of your 70k wrapped up and that's just on your basic needs.

How many weddings would a young couple have in a year? Anything from 3-4 to 7-8 I'd say. Between stags, hens and weddings probably the guts of 1k each time.

Medical expenses? Health insurance?

Gym memberships, playing sports, holidays, social life, getting a few non-essential items through the year?

Every cent you earn is gone if you want to live an anywhere near decent standard of life if you're stuck in the rental bubble in Dublin.

And that's a couple on decent jobs - just forget it for a single person, don't even go there.

All of the above is very true. And I'm aware that plenty of couples don't earn a combined 100k, or anywhere close to it.
It's not easy to save when paying a lot of rent. I know people who moved back with their parents for 2-3 years in some cases, in order to save a deposit. No fun!
I'm also aware that working in tech , one can forget that they are in a bubble that is not representative if wider society. But still has the ability to distort the market. There are many young(-ish) people in Dublin , working in tech, who have made a lot of money in the past few years on stock options. Even after tax it can come to multiples of annual salary. Especially if one accrued these shares prior to IPO. The 30 Coinbase employees in Dublin got a combined $27m (roughly, at IPO price point) which they will be able to sell (after paying 52% tax) in a few months if they wish. This is an extreme example, but plenty out there getting large 5 figure sums, that are no doubt fuelling property purchases and distorting the market.

3
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 17, 2021, 02:39:46 PM »
There is more to life than just work, hence why people and especially young people like city living.

Decentalising jobs to mulligar sounds great in theory but in reality young people dont want to live there because there is fcuk all to do. Hence why the big tech companies are based in dublin, because they can attract the best talent not just with the job but the lifestyle.
But if more people were living in Mullingar, there would be more to do!

I spent a long weekend in Athlone last summer, and there was loads to do.

There is a mindset out there though that you need to move to Dublin to be regarded as successful. And the people left behind will be left behind. That won’t change overnight.

But I do think working from home over the last 14 months has been a game changer. IDA have been battling for a number of years to persuade new entrants they don’t need to be in Dublin.

Although it will be interesting to hear from people who work in Dublin, but who moved back home during the pandemic. Did it make you miss Dublin more? Or did it make you think quality of life could be better if you lived in your home county?

There is certainly truth in that.
But we are probably more taking about those who are slightly older and thinking about starting a family.
I work in a tech company. The age profile is young, and for sure the 24 year old Sales Development Rep wants to live in an apartment in the city centre. But the 32 year old who has just got engaged, and would like a 4 bedroom house in which to raise a family, might be seeking something different. They probably won't have any problem getting approval for a €400k+ property. But €400k won't buy much of a 4 bed house in Dublin.
The pandemic has changed things in my world. There is no way I'll be back in the office full time again. It's just not necessary. At the start of the pandemic I lived walking distance from work, as I wouldn't entertain commuting every day. We have moved outside the M50 now, as I know I'll only face that commute at most 3 times a week. More often 1 day, I suspect. I'm seeing this replicated among others in my company. This should help the overall picture a small bit - but I guess every job doesn't have remote capability.

4
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 17, 2021, 12:09:39 PM »
the only rational thing for first time buyers  to do now is stay out of the market.
When prices fall interest rates will rise. A double sucker punch.

A 500K flat in the arsehole of Meath at 1% will be worth 200-250k at 5%.
But the mortgage will be based on 500K. So the monthly cost will be considerably higher along with negative equity.

What's the alternative?

Most annual rental payments will top the mortgage of an equivalent property.

Decentralising of the job market really needs to happen.

Gov bodies need their headquarters moved out of Dublin and shared around the country and ensure there's more on offer to entice new industries to locate in Cork, Galway, Sligo, Ennis, Wexford, Kilkenny and the likes.

The demand for housing in the Greater Dublin area is based on the need to be near the job market to a larger extent.

Would certainly help but has there been enough infrastructural development outside of Dublin to make it feasible? Not a chance.

Govt incompetence is a severe issue, they completely make a balls out of every capital project they do - overbudget, delayed and not up to standard. You look at the children's hospital and the fiasco there, the national broadband and the fiasco there etc etc.

I think is certainly a good idea in theory but in order for it to work, you need the right infrastructure and capital investment. It would be great to see a strategy both sides of the border than would implement a proper rail network on this island. Imagine what something like that could do both in terms of the climate issues, jobs commuting and consumer benefits.

You'd genuinely like to see some intelligent long term planning in place. I think FFG have proven for a long time now that they can't be trusted with the tax payers money.

Hard to fault the roads west and south out of Dublin as Cork is linked with Motorway the whole way and so is Galway. Can't say I know much about telecoms and the likes but on the face of it infrastructure isn't too bad IMO.

The roads in to Dublin are good, sure. And maybe they won't be quite as busy as pre-pandemic. But still, rail is preferable for commuting if it is done properly, but it's not. For example, Mullingar is just 50 miles from Dublin City centre - but the morning trains take 90 mins to get to Connolly. It should be at least 40% quicker. Kilkenny should be a doable round trip on train - but it's not. These are 20,000+ population towns that are not that expensive to buy and live in. Especially on Dublin salaries.
Maybe these trips will be more doable for those who will be on a more hybrid office/remote model , post pandemic.

5
General discussion / Re: The OFFICIAL Liverpool FC thread
« on: May 17, 2021, 09:53:08 AM »
Crazy.  Never seen anything like that.  First time in Liverpool's history the keeper scores.
great finish, some header, as much as it pains me to say it 😂

I think I saw somewhere too that it was the first time in PL history that a keeper he scored the winner. Bobby obviously teaching his compatriot his heading skills!
I’d say it’s very rare that keepers go up when the scores are level. Statistically there’s probably more chance of losing a point than gaining two. But in Liverpool’s case, it was obviously worth the risk given the circumstances.

Sky said it’s the 3rd goal by a keeper from a corner in PL history. Schmichael scored a lovely volley for united v Villa, but that only made it 2-3, which was how it finished.
Friedel poked one in for Blackburn for a late equalizer v Charlton. But Charlton immediately went up and got the winner.

So it’s the first time in PL history that a keeper going up for a corner has given any benefit to his team in terms of points.

There’s also been 3 other goals from keepers in PL history from long clearances.

Schmichael scored for Villa, against Everton.

6
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: May 14, 2021, 01:06:26 PM »
If Liverpool win their 3 games, then barring some ridiculous scoreline in the Leicester v Spurs game (plus Chelsea beating Leicester) , Liverpool are in.
When Chelsea play Leicester neither team will yet know what is required of them (unless Liverpool have messed up already). I suspect that Leicester would be more than happy with a draw, and then take their chances that they can beat Spurs on final day. Or at least equal whatever result Chelsea get against Villa.
Could be a very interesting final day. West Ham will still be in with an outside chance if they can win their next two. Of course, 5 could qualify if Chelsea come 5th and win the Champions League.

7
I would say ignorance is bliss for most people on the planet. Most people only read what they want to read - they only have one life after all. Cullinane got (some) people’s back up because he acted like a teenager after a few cans. The vast majority of SF TDs elected that day acted like adults, and the politicians that they are.
If you ask most people what do they know about Sean Lemass they’ll either say “nothing” or “free education”. As I said above, most people care about today and tomorrow. Yesterday is not so important. Not everyone is interested in history.

8
People generally don’t care as much about things they can’t remember happening. The guys you’re arguing with on the other thread (one presumes) are old enough to remember the worst of the troubles. They don’t like being reminded of it by the likes of Cullinane. They are not old enough to remember the war of independence. In fact, even their grandparents might not have been born yet. Sinn Fein have no bother getting votes, right across the country, from those under 30. They don’t remember the troubles.
It really could be as simple as that.

9
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: May 09, 2021, 07:07:33 PM »
They are not overachieving ......they are where they deserve to be at this time....

Of course they deserve to be where they are. But I meant overachieving compared to what anyone would have expected pre season. Any claim that they are missing out on top 4 due to a lack of bottle is nonsense. Leicester on the other hand, given how comfortable they looked a few weeks ago, could well deserve that accusation if indeed they do miss out. Although surely they will face a weakened Man Utd side on Tuesday.

10
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: May 09, 2021, 06:37:39 PM »
Both West Ham and Leicester bottling it for the 4th place spot leaving Liverpool to sneak it.

West Ham arent “bottling” anything. They are massively overachieving. Losing to Everton isn’t a matter of bottle. I would argue that Everton had a stronger team than them.

11
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: May 08, 2021, 02:32:57 PM »
Some finish to Championship season, Derby currently staying up but I'd not bet my house on it staying that way

Sickener for Rotherham. Looked like they’d done enough. The Derby Wednesday game ended up being 12 minutes behind the Rotherham game. Changed the game theory dynamics involved.

12
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 07, 2021, 03:59:49 PM »
Kate O Connell not running in the by election, doesn't feel she has a chance of been the FG rep. I suppose thats happens when you isolate yourself by dissing your boss, dissing your party in public, making up stories, being a total un-regulated mouth-piece & bitch to your colleagues.
Maybe she can join the far left, people before profit crowd, but they smell to bad & probably don't own their own property. Nothing in common there. So who can confused Kate join?

Bet you a lump of turf she was bullied out?

Yeah, but she was no shrinking violet hereslf. Live by the sword die by the sword. In fairness the electrotate did speak last time out. Depriving her a seat at the Seanad smacks of grass roots "getting their own back"

She took a gamble. Didn’t just back Coveney in leadership race but went all in against Varadker. It was a strategic play to put her in a strong position against Murphy, who was Varadker’s campaign manager so would have been set for a ministerial post if Varadker won. She had to know that FG keeping two seats was going to be a long shot.
She gambled. She lost.
I think she will be ok.

13
General discussion / Re: Landlordism 2.0
« on: May 05, 2021, 03:40:44 PM »
Surely it's not that hard to bring in legislation that would prohibit or disincentivise people to own multiple properties.

Of course that might sound too much like socialism for the politicians in charge.

Has that not be done to an extent up here recently. You can’t ofset your mortgage payments against the rental income anymore.  Is that the same in The south?

No it's not. the lowered the % you could offset, a few years ago. But they've actually brought it back up to 100%.

edit: I'm talking mortgage interest. which is I presume what you meant. you could hardly offset the actual payment of the capital in the North until recently?

14
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: April 27, 2021, 09:10:45 PM »
35? Really?

Im struggling beyond a few Burnley players, Dallas, Long, Evans, Coleman, Hendrick and the Liverpool goalie.

The number is actually based on appearance in match day squad rather than appearance on field. So a few like Flynn (Leicester) and Odubeko (West Ham) are included. Bit misleading I guess.

15
General discussion / Re: Premier League 20/21
« on: April 27, 2021, 07:06:02 PM »
Surely if anything is to be done, it should be limiting the amount of money that a club can spend on transfers and wages. Probably ways around that too though.

If that meant billionaires looking instead to Europe to buy up clubs, and less foreign players coming to the PL, then so be it. I think that would actually be a good thing. More British/Irish players featuring in the PL

I watched highlights of the 1989 FA Cup final on youtube the other day.

Apart from Grobbelaar, there wasn't a single other player on either side who wasn't from Britain or Ireland. Managers too.

From an Irish point of view alone, you'd Houghton, Aldridge, Sheedy, Staunton and Whelan.

When's the last time any Irish man played in an FA Cup final?

1979 FA Cup final: Arsenal v Man Utd. There were 5 from NI starting, 3 from ROI. And Arsenal’s manager from NI. There were also 5 Scots.

Would there even be 8 NI/ROI players in total in the PL this season?

35 (28 + 7). But you’d be forgiven for not realising.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 84