What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[Milltown Row2]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union  plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.

I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..

While I'd love to see it, I'm 50, I really can't see it in my lifetime

[armaghniac]

I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..

The problem is not these things, in general the ROI allows people bleed it at a substantially higher rate than in NI, with the possible exception of the car end of things which isn't a big feature in the south as far as I know (but I could be corrected).

The problem is who is going to pay for it.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah I am a bit younger but would say the same. The difference though is that brexit and the protocol has actually got people realistically talking about it. The dup have expedited it significantly. (Still I don't see it in my lifetime but I would say a few generations as opposed to very long term now)

[marty34]

The census might reveal more whenever they get round to releasing that information..

Releasing it in late autumn JC....for it's the quiet time of the year!!!!

Other bits and pieces i.e. population and gender etc. will be announced in the next few months.

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union  plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.

Yeah our devolved govt has precipitated a worse version of it than rest of UK(yuk clean your mouth out). Makes you worry about our ability to govern and manage anything

[Milltown Row2]

I agree, that's why I didn't include it, but the cost of living and 'free' health care will be banded about and people are thick and will believe what they are told... You are talking 100 years 5 generations of people who are intrenched in their beliefs.. You are also looking at multiple generations on the nationalist side who have benefited through the social services and they will have to give up their free rent/prescriptions/car/DLA/dole and whatever else some have been bleeding off the government..

The problem is not these things, in general the ROI allows people bleed it at a substantially higher rate than in NI, with the possible exception of the car end of things which isn't a big feature in the south as far as I know (but I could be corrected).

The problem is who is going to pay for it.

People are funny creatures, you could tell them that and someone could tell them something different and rather than give themselves a headache they'll stick with the status quo..

This won't be a green and orange head count at all to get it over the line, this will come down to how will 'I' benefit from this, that's where its got to be sold.. And SF for all their movement in the right direction and political clout can't be seen to be the driver of this bus, otherwise they'll be driving it into a low level bridge

[marty34]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either

I agree.

Look how many people use the term 'northern ireland' on here.

Normalisation I think the word is after 100 years of partition.

Obviously, there's a great debate to be had on what a re-united Ireland is.  So this is phase one in the debate.  Well before a border poll.

Loads of inputs from various pitical parties and organisations etc.

In saying that, the majority of unionists will not be interested.  You can see this playing out in the protocol or peace statements currently. It doesn't matter if business' can grow and develop now.

They just want to eat a flag.

[Snapchap]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

[Mikhail Prokhorov]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

[johnnycool]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

If you live in strangford with little or no chance of getting a nationalist MLA elected you'd vote Alliance or at least give them your transfer.

Same as East Belfast and a few other places like north Down etc etc.

Doesn't mean you won't vote for a UI when the time comes.

Hence my interest in where Alliance are getting their votes from and who was getting their transfers as that will tell a tale

[marty34]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

If you live in strangford with little or no chance of getting a nationalist MLA elected you'd vote Alliance or at least give them your transfer.

Same as East Belfast and a few other places like north Down etc etc.

Doesn't mean you won't vote for a UI when the time comes.

Hence my interest in where Alliance are getting their votes from and who was getting their transfers as that will tell a tale

Is there not a nationalist seat in Strangford JC?

When you add SF and SDLP together and take a few 1000 who, as you say, vote Alliance, there's definately a seem. Also add in nationalists who see no reason to vote.

Same LV.  Definately a nationalist seat there. EA is also the same.   Not sure about other areas in the north.

[yellowcard]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

If this is true as you suggest (and I don't believe it is) then there is currently no justification for calling a border poll anytime soon.

[armaghniac]

Positive arguments or not I dont know any unionists that would go for it.

You can try to sell it all you want but its in their blood and they dont want to be part of a UI.

I have found it impossible to even get them to see an alternative - and I would certainly class these people a middle of the road unionists.

I can only imagine whats its like around the Shankhill etc

Unionists won't go for it, but unionists are 40% of the population, you need to work on the other 60%. In reality, 10-15% of people who vote unionist will look at the case also.

[imtommygunn]

At the risk of repeating myself:

A border poll, when it happens, will be the most seismic political event of our lifetimes. Nobody will be able to escape partaking in the debate once the referendum is called - least of all a political party. I don't think it's credible to think that a party will willingly sideline itself from involvement in the hottest political event in it's existence. If it is foolish enough to try sitting on the fence then it will be lambasted from every side, not just from one. In Britain, Labour tried to ride two horses at once with the Brexit referendum and made an embarrassment of themselves. For now, Alliance can sit on the fence today and insist that they are not concerned with hypothetical constitutional arrangements when the health/cost of living crises etc are what people want dealt with; which is well and good, but once a border poll is called then that excuse goes out the window. A referendum campaign when it happens, will be all people will be talking about and in such a climate, Alliance will be unable to pretend otherwise. Naomi Long already stated before at Féile and Phobail that in the event of a border poll, the party will campaign. She just wouldn't be drawn on what side they will campaign on.

EDIT

She's also said on twitter a number of times, that Alliance will take a side in the event of a referendum:
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055517213879427077
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1055520603610980357
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1205491354232610816
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1198948527264677897
https://twitter.com/naomi_long/status/1129417742711427074

Alliance and anyone who votes for them are unionists and for the status quo

they always have been 

not a chance do they promote a UI

an independent north maybe 

If this is true as you suggest (and I don't believe it is) then there is currently no justification for calling a border poll anytime soon.

I honestly don't think there is any point calling one. Build up to one yes but no point in calling one.

[Rossfan]

The only one who can call it is the Brit SoS.
He/she HAS to if it appears that there might be a majority in favour of re unification .
Will "appears" be -
Nationalist parties get more votes than Unionist ones
Nationalist parties get 50%+1 of the Vote
The Brits just want to get rid of the place