What is the most likely future of Northern Ireland ?

[Rossfan]

We're you going to vote NO ?

[imtommygunn]

I had high hopes for Edwin but he let me down

[seafoid]

Preparation is needed now. Despite what I personally thought was a disappointing election for nationalism as a whole it still got overall 42% to Unionists 42.5%. A poll really isn't that far away on those figures. I have read several times about the disillusioned unionist vote going to Alliance which is horse shit when we look at Alliances transfers which heavily favoured nationalist parties. It's a security blanket that doesn't exist. A bit like the thousands of garden centre prods that don't vote but will save the union in a referendum- the big problem being they also don't actually exist.

Only thing is people's 'transfer' won't be used in a border poll.

The Alliance will have to commit - one way or the other.

I am wondering though will Alliance have to commit?  Could they just take the stance of agreeing to support the outcome either way based on the will of the people, and sit on the fence?

The Alliance model assumes continuity for NI. This may or may not be the case in future.

[Taylor]

Work with a number of middle of the road unionists.

The feeling among them was that they would not consider voting for a UI.

Even after bojo and the lads shafting them a number of times and showing he gives not one shite about them they still want to maintain the status quo.

Anyone that thinks unionists will change their thought process in the next 5/10 years is deluded from my experience.

Cost of living etc wont change their thinking - sure isnt the rest of the UK having a cost of living crisis as well 

[marty34]

I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.

What do they do/say during a ref?

Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?

So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?

Just sit quiet in the corner?

Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref. 

[johnnycool]

Work with a number of middle of the road unionists.

The feeling among them was that they would not consider voting for a UI.

Even after bojo and the lads shafting them a number of times and showing he gives not one shite about them they still want to maintain the status quo.

Anyone that thinks unionists will change their thought process in the next 5/10 years is deluded from my experience.

Cost of living etc wont change their thinking - sure isnt the rest of the UK having a cost of living crisis as well 

Because they're being fed the lie that they've a better health service, education, welfare system in the North than they would have in the south and that needs challenged.

Things will get a lot worse for business if the NI protocol goes or is diluted so much that paperwork is needed to move stuff from Fermanagh to Leitrim.

[Rossfan]

I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.

What do they do/say during a ref?
LET THE PEOPLE DECIDE

Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.
NOT NECESSARILY.

[johnnycool]

The census might reveal more whenever they get round to releasing that information..

[imtommygunn]

I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.

What do they do/say during a ref?

Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?

So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?

Just sit quiet in the corner?

Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.

Do all the people in the party even align on it? All that needs to be said is let the people decide. Pushing for a border poll doesn't mean pushing for a united ireland either. You can push it with the objective of getting a clear answer one way or the other.

[trueblue1234]

I don't think they need to commit either. It would be political suicide for them to commit either way and I honestly think that the party would be split on it anyway.

What do they do/say during a ref?

Just sit and say like Dragon's Den 'I'm out'?

So basically you're saying for about 3 months before hand they'll have no policies, manifesto or announcements on it?

Just sit quiet in the corner?

Every political party campaigns, one way or another on a ref.

Do all the people in the party even align on it? All that needs to be said is let the people decide. Pushing for a border poll doesn't mean pushing for a united ireland either. You can push it with the objective of getting a clear answer one way or the other.

IMO if they are seen to be pushing a border poll even if supported by evidence that one should be held, then they will lose the Majority of their unionist vote.
I think they won't campaign for one until it's absolutely undeniable, but then they will lose the unionist vote. Understandably so I might add. Or if it gets to that stage and they refuse to campaign for one, in spite of the evidence then they'll certainly lose a lot of nation its voters. Again understandably so.
At that stage I think action or inaction decides their direction.

[Milltown Row2]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

[tintin25]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either

[Milltown Row2]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

I'd say people on here are also fairly underestimating just how many people on 'our side' would vote for it either

Yeah that too, I'd like to think that when actually faced with the chance to have it that they would do it and say 'f**k it' and I'm talking about the nationalist that is on the fence..

If though that there are clear pathways and a period of adopting and sorting out pensions and jobs within the public sector and so on (of which in the north is very top heavy) then it might persuade the vast majority of Nationalist..

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest any unionist/loyalist/prod to vote for a UI

I'd say we are way down on expectations even further away that what was expected in Scotland with an even higher loss

[JPGJOHNNYG]

I don't know one person from the other side (and I live and socialise with plenty) that would vote for a UI

There are a few Jamie Dornan or Eddie Irvine types but not many. As mentioned earlier people just are not rationally weighing up options. The NHS keeps being mentioned as a big pro-union  plus ffs. The NHS of 30 years ago maybe but in its current form it's a shambles. Anyone with any sense wouldn't be using it as some sort of positive argument when you look at the waiting lists and delays for ops.

[Taylor]

Positive arguments or not I dont know any unionists that would go for it.

You can try to sell it all you want but its in their blood and they dont want to be part of a UI.

I have found it impossible to even get them to see an alternative - and I would certainly class these people a middle of the road unionists.

I can only imagine whats its like around the Shankhill etc