Why won't NI Catholics/Nationalists vote Alliance?

[Evil Genius]

(I had meant to open this thread after the West Belfast bye-election on 09 June, but got sidetracked: better late than never, I hope)

Anyhow, at the bye-election, the Alliance candidate received a pathetic 122 votes  ( = 0.5%) out of nearly 23k votes cast, thereby coming rock-bottom of the poll:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belfast_West_by-election,_2011

This was a further reflection of the Alliance performance in the NI-wide elections in May, when Alliance received 12.5% of the first preference vote in Unionist-majority constituencies, but only 1.5% in Nationalist-majority ones:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/constituency/html/northern_ireland.stm

Further, if you look at Alliance's most notable successes (recently, at least), e.g. Anna Lo in South Belfast, or Naomi Long in East Belfast, these, too, have been in Unionist-majority constituencies.

Anyone any idea why this should be?

[AQMP]

I suppose traditionally it was viewed as being a (liberal and non-sectarian) Unionist party.  So Nationalists don't vote for Unionist Party shocker.  While it may have become a bit more neutral on the Union in the last few years it doesn't seem to get that message across, indeed it appears IMHO to try to avoid the "National Question" which as the SDLP found out was not a good strategy to attract Nationalist votes.

Edit:  I think Catholics don't vote Alliance rather than won't vote Alliance if you get my drift.  Alliance successes in traditionally Unionist constituencies could suggest that Unionists see them as a "safe" vote.  So both sides see Alliance as Unionist which is why Prods vote for them and Taigs don't...or am I missing something

[Nally Stand]

You already hijacked several threads recently in order to harrass Ulick re his views on the Alliance Party's level of cross community support. Is this just another example of your little crush on Ulick or something?   

[Evil Genius]

I suppose traditionally it was viewed as being a (liberal and non-sectarian) Unionist party.  So Nationalists don't vote for Unionist Party shocker.

That may well be a factor, except that in former times, it didn't receive that many votes from Unionists, either!

And in any case, I'd still be very surprised if the perceived "Unionism" of Alliance could account for so marked (eight times) a difference in voting patterns - especially since Alliance candidates seem to be drawn equally from both communities, with (I think?) RC-background candidates sometimes standing in Prod areas and v.v.

While it may have become a bit more neutral on the Union in the last few years it doesn't seem to get that message across, indeed it appears IMHO to try to avoid the "National Question" which as the SDLP found out was not a good strategy to attract Nationalist votes.

Whatever the historical position, Alliance has for a long time now been very careful to avoid being identified with either side of the divide - presumably so as not to scare Unionists by appearing "too Green"*, nor Nationalists by being "too Orange".

Yet as Alliance has become more "agnostic" on the Union etc, it's vote in Unionist areas has increased, not decreased, as might otherwise be expected.

Plus, following the recent opinion poll which indicated that many Catholics/Nationalist-background people in NI might actually vote to remain in the UK in any Border Poll etc, I wonder why these people don't consider voting Alliance? After all, their moderate counterparts on the Unionist side appear amenable to voting tactically across the divide, if the (admittedly anecdotal) evidence of eg Gerry Fitt, Joe Hendron, Alastair McDonnell or Margaret Ritchie is anything to go by.

* - Speaking of "Green", I am reminded also that The Green Party also receives what votes it does from broadly Unionist areas, rather than broadly  Nationalist ones.

Edit:  I think Catholics don't vote Alliance rather than won't vote Alliance if you get my drift.

I had thought of using "don't" in the title, rather than "won't", but it has been so marked for so long, that it seems more significant than mere circmstance.

For example, on another thread, Donagh Ulick (who also denied that Alliance votes should count as "Unionist" in the Referendum debate btw) claimed that Nationalists were reluctant to "waste" their vote on a candidate who could not win etc.

Which might be fair enough, except that in bye-elections such as West Belfast, there was never any danger of Maskey not getting returned, therefore a (protest) vote for Alliance would actually count, rather than be "wasted". Yet if the "protest vote" was a factor, it may be that the People Before Profit Candidate (7.6% of the vote) was the beneficiary, rather than Alliance.

Anyhow, whether "Don't" or "Won't", it's safe to say "Aren't"! 

[Evil Genius]

You already hijacked several threads recently in order to harrass Ulick re his views on the Alliance Party's level of cross community support.

Er, this thread is about Alliance, and where it draws its support from etc.

Referring to another poster's view on that very topic is hardly "hi-jacking" anything, never mind my own thread! 

Is this just another example of your little crush on Ulick or something?   

No.

I'd say it is those posters who rush to his defence whenever anyone refers to him, however neutrally, who might be said to have a "crush" on him...

Meanwhile, have you anything constructive to say on the topic?

No?

Thought not...

[Nally Stand]

You already hijacked several threads recently in order to harrass Ulick re his views on the Alliance Party's level of cross community support.

Er, this thread is about Alliance, and where it draws its support from etc.

Referring to another poster's view on that very topic is hardly "hi-jacking" anything, never mind my own thread! 

Is this just another example of your little crush on Ulick or something?   

No.

I'd say it is those posters who rush to his defence whenever anyone refers to him, however neutrally, who might be said to have a "crush" on him...

Meanwhile, have you anything constructive to say on the topic?

No?

Thought not...

My point is that you have already discussed this topic across various threads, and usually for ulicks benefit, so it just seems odd that you need to start this topic in yet another thread. Maybe its just David Forde you have a wee eye for then, so apologies re ulick.

As for my opinion on the topic, the alliance party mean nothing to me, they have never done anything in my area or for my area, and have never as much as canvassed my area so those would be some of the reasons this Nationalist/Republican has never wanted to support them. The other main reason however, plain and simply, would be that the Alliance Party have no desire for Irish reunification and so are a non-runner on my ballot papers.

[Oraisteach]

Am I jumping the gun, EG, in assuming you're an Alliance follower, or are you drawn to the most appealing candidate from the unionist side?

Alliance has always struck me as Unionism-Lite, Unionism with a conscience, perhaps a guilty one, or Unionism suffering from Goldilocks syndrome—neither too hot nor too cold, but just right.

They have always seemed a party that really doesn't stand for much, except the preservation of that infamous status quo.

So tell me, EG, with so many Catholics apparently averse to a UI, for what party are they voting (certainly not SDLP or Alliance, given their insipid performances), or have they simply washed their hands of the whole electoral process?

[hairierarea]

Another way you could interpret this is that the Alliance party have failed in their objective of moving past the unionist/nationalist binary to reach out to both sides of the community, and the accusation that they are unionist-lite has some substance. I see no evidence of how the Alliance party has done anything to progress towards a developing an all-Ireland dimension to their political perspective in a way which would demonstrate they are 'post-unionist'. In that sense they remain stuck in the past.

Another important factor is that they act as a kind of spiritual salve to a certain type of liberal unionist. The other Unionist parties have sectarian baggage and/or open associations with the Conservative party in a way many find uncomfortable. I don't see any equivalent push factor driving Catholic voters away from the SDLP, which has its liberal-left ducks in a row as well as their notorious attempt to develop a post-nationalist perspective.

[Big Puff]

Id vote for them if they put forward a decent candidate.

[hairierarea]

Also, wouldn't higher Alliance-vote share in majority unionist constituencies suggest tactical voting by Catholic/nationalists?

[mylestheslasher]

It's a fair question so I don't know why some of Ye are attacking eg on it. Maybe, nationalists  being a minority want 1 very strong party and hence don't want to dilute the power of the green "lobby" by voting for a relatively neutral party when it comes to the national question. 

[Evil Genius]

My point is that you have already discussed this topic across various threads, and usually for ulicks benefit, so it just seems odd that you need to start this topic in yet another thread. Maybe its just David Forde you have a wee eye for then, so apologies re ulick.

When I allude to the Alliance vote etc on other threads, I might conceivably be accused of "hijacking" them.
But when I start a thread on that very subject, prompted by the topicality of the recent elections etc, then your "point" is, frankly, a load of crap.

As for my opinion on the topic, the alliance party mean nothing to me, they have never done anything in my area or for my area, and have never as much as canvassed my area so those would be some of the reasons this Nationalist/Republican has never wanted to support them.

I don't know where your particular area is, but seeing as Alliance invariably fields candidates in every Constituency these days, I suppose it is just possible that in general, Alliance candidates in Nationalist areas neglect to canvass and put themselves around etc, whilst their counterparts in Unionist areas are much more assiduous and hard-working etc...

P.S. If they were  to field a candidate in your area who was hard-working and conscientious, would you consider voting for him/her then?

[Evil Genius]

Am I jumping the gun, EG, in assuming you're an Alliance follower

Although I have in the past given preferences to Alliance, I wouldn't particularly class myself as a "follower".
However, they are one of three* main parties (of five) in NI to whom I would consider voting as first choice (were I still living there and sufficiently bothered to vote at all, that is).


* - Perhaps not the three you might instinctively imagine. 

... or are you drawn to the most appealing candidate from the unionist side?

As I increasingly despair of the traditional Party system in NI, so am I increasingly drawn to favouring individual candidates  who most impress me, regardless of which rosette theu might be wearing.

But anyhow, this thread is not about me, or even about the attitude of Unionists like me towards Alliance, it is about Nationalist  attitudes towards them.

Speaking of which:

Alliance has always struck me as Unionism-Lite, Unionism with a conscience, perhaps a guilty one, or Unionism suffering from Goldilocks syndrome—neither too hot nor too cold, but just right.

They have always seemed a party that really doesn't stand for much, except the preservation of that infamous status quo.

Fair enough.

So tell me, EG, with so many Catholics apparently averse to a UI, for what party are they voting (certainly not SDLP or Alliance, given their insipid performances), or have they simply washed their hands of the whole electoral process?

I don't know why you're asking me that one. 

The fact is, whilst I may have my suspicions as to why that may be, I could quite easily be completely wrong.

Which is why I opened the thread in the first place i.e. to solicit the views of Catholics/Nationalists etc.

[Nally Stand]

My point, once again, is that this has been discussed already. I was making my initial comment tongue-in-cheek. I really don't take this board seriously enough to give a shi**e how many threads the topic is dragged into. We're in this thread now so let the discussion roll.

My area is a Republican area of Tyrone, and all the rolling eyes smileys you feel like using won't change the fact that no Alliance member has ever knocked my door looking for my vote, never mind showed any interest in the locality at any other stage.

Would I vote for a "hard-working and conscientious" Alliance Member in my area if one were to exist? No. Many on this board will know my feelings towards the SDLP, however they do have one SDLP Councillor in Omagh District Council who was recently elected and who is someone I have massive respect for due to his phenomenal work ethic as well as his honesty and integrity. However I did not give him my vote for political reasons. As I explained, my vote will always go to a party which openly and actively supports Irish Reunification with most vigor. Before the moral high-grounders circle around me to tell me I am backward or, God forbid, even sectarian, I will clarify: I am an Irish Republican at the centre of my political outlook. I make no apology for regarding Irish Unity as my chief political desire, so my vote will tend go to an Irish Republican as that person would better represent my beliefs than any Alliance Candidate.

[hairierarea]

The more I think about it, the more I think that the OP is committing a fallacy of composition - that (relatively) high vote-share in majority Unionist (read Protestant) constituencies means that Unionists are the only ones in fact voting for the Alliance party in those constituencies. Surely the minority status of Catholics would give them a greater incentive to vote for the 'least-Unionist' Unionist party in FPTP elections?

I would suggest for example in Naomi Long's triumph in East Belfast, more Catholics voted for Alliance than for the nationalist parties and that a disproportionate amount of the Alliance vote, given the demographics of the constituency, was drawn from Catholic voters. Also witness the switch when it moved from FPTP to STV in the Assembly elections (I'm sure you can look all this up on wikipedia, BBC or whatever if you're interested).