Author Topic: Brexit.  (Read 429416 times)

armaghniac

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12420
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6615 on: February 21, 2019, 10:58:50 PM »
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

omaghjoe

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3328
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6616 on: Today at 04:09:32 AM »
The DUP assure all that all will be well
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/paisley-expects-eu-to-pressure-ireland-to-move-aside-in-brexit-talks-1.3802079

 ;D ;D ;D
Course he left out the obvious convenience of the use of the "Irish problem" by EU to give the Brits a good kicking.


seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22530
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6618 on: Today at 09:46:02 AM »
The all Europe senior hurling final

https://www.ft.com/content/738a995a-35ca-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5

   How no-deal sets the stage for Brexit’s biggest negotiations
      
      
               EU goal will be to make UK pay its €45bn bill and agree backstop

               Alex Barker in Brussels

If Britain leaves the EU without a deal next month, Europe’s Brexit negotiators will not end talks but reset their clocks to a new cliff-edge date: April 18.After 20 days of likely disorder at ports, supermarkets and borders, the deadline will be Britain’s chance to avoid a more lasting rupture with its biggest trading partner — if it can stomach the price. By April 18, according to European Commission contingency plans, Britain must confirm whether to make around €7bn of net contributions to the EU’s budget for 2019. The first payments, which require House of Commons approval, are scheduled for April 30; EU negotiators say missing them will “ruin” relations.The budget ultimatum, cast by Brussels as a generous offer to provide continuity for Britain after the country’s scheduled March 29 departure, is one of the most striking examples of the diplomatic crunch that looms in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal exit.Driving the EU side will be a new aim: making Britain meet its withdrawal treaty obligations, including the €45bn budget bill and backstop arrangements to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, even though the treaty itself will have perished. As a result, a no-deal exit would kick off the most fast-paced and consequential period of negotiations since the Brexit referendum in 2016. “This is when it all shakes out,” said one senior EU diplomat closely involved in Brexit.In the white-heat of a traumatic break with four decades of shared sovereignty, the two sides will confront decisions that will frame relations for years to come. The choices made in the space of a few weeks may determine whether a no-deal Brexit becomes a hostile divorce or a more managed break that keeps a path to reconciliation open.

“Here in Berlin, people are starting to realise that no-deal Brexit is not an event in itself but a new phase of the process,” said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Studies. “It will not mean the breakdown of negotiations but a different form of negotiation.”No-deal Brexit threat focusing minds, says Philip HammondEU sets its deadlines and demandsA “managed no-deal” scenario has long been derided by the EU, in part to stop Brexiters from claiming that the benefits of the Britain’s exit treaty could be replicated through “mini-deals” after Brexit that have fewer downsides. “If there is a no deal there is no more discussion. There is no more negotiation. It is over,” said Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, last year. “Each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures.”But contingency plans issued by the commission since December tell a different story about the type of interaction imagined after Brexit — if the politics will bear it. There will be no overarching UK-EU treaty, nor the soft landing of a full transition, as established by Theresa May’s draft withdrawal treaty. But through “unilateral” arrangements it has already put in place for no-deal, Brussels has set up a series of deadlines and demands — covering areas ranging from fish and money to flying rights — that will inevitably require dialogue with London.“The Brits will be back to the negotiating table within weeks,” said one senior EU figure directly involved in handling Brexit. “We will say, yes, by all means let’s discuss the future. First, here is the backstop and the financial settlement.”Three strands to the talksSeen from the EU, talks would fall into three related strands. First are areas such as fisheries and money, where the EU as demander wants the UK to continue existing arrangements so that divisive fights between the remaining 27 EU states are avoided. Here self-interest prevails. For instance, Brussels’ contingency proposals on fisheries push the EU’s no-deal principles to their limit in a bid to retain access to UK waters that fishermen in France, the Netherlands and Belgium depend on. The draft plans call on the UK to maintain existing agreements for 2019 and allow member states to negotiate swaps of fishing quotas. These swaps, which would then be approved by the commission, are exactly the kind of mini-deals that the EU has long said would be banned.

A second area covers fundamental concerns — such as the maintenance of peace in Northern Ireland, financial stability in markets, and public health — in which co-operation may be essential, even if UK-EU relations badly sour. One senior EU official said that issues such as the Irish border were things that “both sides will need to sit together and discuss”, even in the weeks before a no-deal exit. “There will be pragmatic solutions found,” the negotiator said. One EU ambassador said talks, at an informal level, had already started. Leo Varadkar, the Irish premier, maintains that the ultimate solutions will mirror the backstop plan, in which at least Northern Ireland would remain under the EU’s customs union and regulatory regime — a measure loathed by Eurosceptics and Mrs May’s allies in Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party.“I don’t think that we’ll get to anything very different to the agreement . . . even if that involves a period of uncertainty after 29 March,” Mr Varadkar said this week.

Managing Britain as a ‘third country’

The final big area of concern is the wider economy, and how to manage Britain suddenly becoming a “third country”. Brussels’ aim is to mitigate the worst effects of a break-up and give European businesses time to adapt. But at the same time it wants to show that EU membership has irreplaceable benefits, and keep pressure on the UK to yield on fish and financial payments. The Commission’s contingency plans temporarily relax laws for around a year — for example extending visa-free travel rights and allowing airlines to maintain basic point-to-point flight schedules with Britain — so as long as the steps are “reciprocated” by London. The hitch comes if Britain does not reciprocate, or says it will only do so if access arrangements are improved in one or more sectors. In the past the EU has only taken such “equivalence” decisions — which unilaterally grant market access rights to foreign companies — after having held extensive exchanges with third country governments. The difference with a no-deal Brexit would be the sheer number of areas covered at pace, against the backdrop of a legal revolution.

EU’s view of its bargaining power

The EU sees its bargaining power as coming from managing the implementation of rules that can cause huge disruption to trade — such as customs checks or providing authorisations. The challenge is taking advantage of that leverage that without doing further harm to EU interests. The EU has particular sway in the area of agricultural trade. UK exports face 100 per cent checks under EU law after Brexit. But, for this point even to be reached, Brussels must first authorise the UK as “competent” to export to the EU — a decision that one senior EU diplomat noted might take a day or “maybe a lot longer”, depending on the state of relations. Michael Gove, Britain’s environment secretary, admitted to farmers this week that, by holding back on this authorisation decision, the EU could completely halt Britain’s sales of beef, sheep meat and dairy to the bloc.

“As things stand, just six weeks before we are due to leave, the EU still have not listed the UK as a full third country in the event of no deal being concluded,” Mr Gove said. “That means as I speak that there is no absolute guarantee that we would be able to continue to export food to the EU.” Capitalising on this bargaining power is a high risk strategy for the EU. Britain could impose tariffs, as Mr Gove suggested this week, or indeed ban EU imports, a move that would hit Ireland particularly hard.

But some in Brussels see Britain having few options but to lower trade barriers if it wants to avoid food shortages. “The UK has no incentive whatsoever unless they want empty shelves,” said one official, who predicted some EU states would make fishing rights in UK waters a condition for granting market access to UK farmers.Shifts in British politics difficult to predictCalculations on the balance of power in a no-deal scenario depend heavily on one factor: they assume the UK government will have the political leeway and authority to do deals. While some EU negotiators are confident the UK will have little choice but to co-operate, because of the economic hit in a no-deal scenario, some member states are more unsure. “How exactly is British politics going to turn around after no deal and agree to the backstop that was the cause of them crashing out? I don’t understand,” said one senior official overseeing Brexit for an EU government. Another senior EU diplomat in close touch with Downing Street over Brexit speculated that, when the UK’s exit from the bloc becomes a reality, it will be impossible to predict shifts in British politics, whether because of resignations or elections. “I cannot imagine a hard Brexit will mean business as usual in British politics,” the adviser said. “Something has to happen.”
Sure it's only the league

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22530
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6619 on: Today at 10:23:58 AM »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/07/no-deal-brexit-medieval-siege-eu-britain-industries

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that

Tom Kibasi


 
Talk of rotting food at Calais is hysterical: instead, no deal would see the EU calmly dismantle Britain’s industries over time


One of the most striking features of the ongoing Brexit shambles is the consistent failure of Britain’s political class to correctly assess the consequences of their decisions or the likely response from EU member states or institutions. So it is with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

With every passing week, new heights of hysteria are reached about the impact of crashing out of the bloc. Politicians and the media have embraced the aesthetic of the disaster movie, outlining all the most vivid ways in which our economy and society will fall to pieces after exit day in an imagined dystopia.

The government amplifies rather than dampens the threat in the hope that fear will bring MPs from both main parties into acquiescing to the prime minister’s Brexit deal. And the EU, keen to assist the government in getting the deal through parliament, does little to lower the temperature. But almost all of the fear-mongering is wrong.

  The hysteria needs to stop and the sobering reality of the scale of the stakes for the future must be better understood
 

In truth, the short-term impact of a no-deal Brexit would be not nearly as bad as predicted, but the long-term impact will be much worse than feared. Why? Because the British political class still fails to understand how the EU will respond to the crisis.

In a no-deal Brexit, the EU will not place the UK under some medieval siege; there won’t be trucks filled with rotting food in Calais or shortages of medicines in pharmacies. Planes will continue to fly, though British travellers would face longer queues at borders (yet still enjoy visa-free travel). A thin agreement – covering areas from aviation to contract continuity – would be quickly concluded.

Most households would feel the impact not through shortages but through rising prices, the result of a rapid weakening in sterling driving up the cost of imports. Living standards that have barely improved for more than a decade would get noticeably worse. But 3,500 troops are not going to be deployed to the streets.

Instead, the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

The EU would set out a timeline over which it would introduce compliance and rules of origin checks on the UK’s most competitive exporting sectors. It is not hard to imagine checks on automotive parts from 2021, pharmaceuticals from 2022 and aerospace from 2023, alongside constantly shifting sands of equivalence for financial services. This would allow firms an orderly departure from the UK to the single market. It will be a steady drift away from the UK, not an avalanche. Moreover, the absence of any agreement would mean lasting uncertainty that would deter future investment. The UK is particularly exposed in this regard: our serious lack of competitiveness is demonstrated by persistently large trade deficits. This means the UK is heavily reliant on foreign investment – the “kindness of strangers” – which would likely collapse. It is not hard to imagine a future government going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout.

The Brexit fantasists’ riposte is that the Europeans have as much to lose since the UK is an important export market and we run a large trade deficit with the single market. But one of the legacies of Thatcher’s deindustrialisation is that the UK lacks the industrial base to switch from foreign to domestic production. It simply no longer exists, thanks to the 1980s shock therapy of the very same disaster capitalists that now champion no-deal.

Those same Brexiters who have marched from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm still bizarrely believe that the UK could pocket the £39bn divorce bill while pursuing trade deals around the world. Yet the EU would, calmly and rationally, place tariffs on UK trade until it had collected what it is owed. And the damage to trade with the single market could not be replaced by new trade deals – in addition to the EU27, the UK has the benefits of trade deals with 40 other countries through the EU, all of which would evaporate overnight in no deal. That requires 67 deals to be signed just to stand still.

Yet it is for these reasons that no deal remains the least likely outcome, its probability in the single digits. What began as a political hoax is now affecting real investment decisions in the economy, as Nissan’s recent decision has shown. The hysteria needs to stop and the sobering reality of the scale of the stakes for the UK’s future prosperity must be better understood. It is a damning indictment and a severe dereliction of duty that such a calamity as a no-deal Brexit is a possibility, no matter how unlikely. It’s time to rule out no deal, once and for all.
Sure it's only the league

Rossfan

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14272
  • Ballaghaderreen CO ROSCOMMON
    • View Profile
    • Roscommon County Board official website
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6620 on: Today at 11:25:22 AM »
Jasus Seaf you must think we're all retired or are Senior managers here ;D
2018- 2 Cupeens won, 2 to go.

Maiden1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 706
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6621 on: Today at 11:28:09 AM »
Looks like Corbyn may now lean towards a second referendum.
with the splits in both parties- I'd say that passes parliament without the DUP support.

may has been angling towards a two option vote- my deal vs no deal

doesn't look like she's going to get what she wants...

The lunatic British public might still vote leave and with no deal.
I think if there was a second referendum the most likely outcome would still be leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2018/jan/26/guardian-icm-brexit-poll-full-results

If there is a high 40% of people openly admitting they would vote leave that to me indicates there is likely a silent minority who also would vote leave if there was another vote that don't want to admit they would.

In general if a poll says a number and there is a choice which seems more 'liberal' and a choice which is seen as more extreme a certain percentage should be weighted towards the second choice.

e.g.  I conduct a poll

Would you be a happy to live next door to a non Caucasian (or someone of a 'funny tinge' as Angela Smith would call them)?

and the results where

70% Yes
30% No

The people who say no they wouldn't be happy to live next to a non white person are mostly being honest.  They are admitting they are essentially somewhat racist (if a person tells you what they are believe them).  A higher percentage of the people who say Yes are likely to be not telling the truth.  It could be an 'anonymous' phone survey but the person calling you knows your phone number so it not that anonymous and you may not want to divulge your true feelings to them.  If someone asks you the question on the street are you comfortable ticking no in front of them, maybe the person asking the question is a funny tinge or is friends with 1, either way they might judge you.

Margaret Thatcher got elected every time when the poll numbers indicated that she would not get elected and we are seeing time after time 'shock' results in elections and referendums.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-how-right-or-wrong-were-the-polls/
« Last Edit: Today at 11:43:13 AM by Maiden1 »
If you want something, you have to work for it. Now quiet they're about to announce the lottery no's

TabClear

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6622 on: Today at 12:18:22 PM »

if a poll says a number and there is a choice which seems more 'liberal' and a choice which is seen as more extreme a certain percentage should be weighted towards the second choice.

e.g.  I conduct a poll

Would you be a happy to live next door to a non Caucasian (or someone of a 'funny tinge' as Angela Smith would call them)?


Just to clarify, you're not talking about Trump moving in  next door are you??

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22530
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6623 on: Today at 01:52:15 PM »
Jasus Seaf you must think we're all retired or are Senior managers here ;D
There is way too much news these days
There is chaos everywhere

It's the end of the economic system.

I remember as a child hearing about McDermotts Department Store in Castlerea. It was fabulous in the 60s
according to everyone who spoke about it. 
It collapsed sometime in the late 70s when the last economic system collapsed
« Last Edit: Today at 01:54:18 PM by seafoid »
Sure it's only the league

Captain Black

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 368
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6624 on: Today at 04:50:00 PM »
Dear Mr Ctrl+C/Ctrl+V,

Less of the disaster porn please.

Regards,

Captain Black

imtommygunn

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8488
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6625 on: Today at 04:54:55 PM »
Jasus Seaf you must think we're all retired or are Senior managers here ;D
There is way too much news these days
There is chaos everywhere

It's the end of the economic system.

I remember as a child hearing about McDermotts Department Store in Castlerea. It was fabulous in the 60s
according to everyone who spoke about it. 
It collapsed sometime in the late 70s when the last economic system collapsed

It’s a good job you copy and paste all of that news in case we miss it!! What do you do for a living?? You seem to have serious time on your hands.

seafoid

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 22530
    • View Profile
Re: Brexit.
« Reply #6626 on: Today at 05:33:02 PM »
Jasus Seaf you must think we're all retired or are Senior managers here ;D
There is way too much news these days
There is chaos everywhere

It's the end of the economic system.

I remember as a child hearing about McDermotts Department Store in Castlerea. It was fabulous in the 60s
according to everyone who spoke about it. 
It collapsed sometime in the late 70s when the last economic system collapsed

It’s a good job you copy and paste all of that news in case we miss it!! What do you do for a living?? You seem to have serious time on your hands.

I advise companies on how to get through
the next crash and I do stuff on Raidio ná Gaeltachta

You never know who might be interested on the board.
Financial Risk affects everyone .
Sure it's only the league