Premier League 2025-26

[Tony Baloney]

According to ChatGPT there has been a steady decline. Yes LB, you are spot on that it seems to be xG-driven. There are few things better in the game than the ball ratting the stanchion from 25 yards.


ChatGPT said:
Yes — there is publicly available data showing that both the frequency of shots from outside the penalty box and the proportion of goals scored from outside the box in the English Premier League have generally declined over the years. This comes from aggregated match data tracked by Opta, the Premier League itself, and analytical sites that compile shooting locations. Here's what the stats show:

📉 Fewer Shots From Outside the Box Over Time
In the 2024–25 Premier League season, the league saw the lowest number of shots from outside the box on record (since at least 2003–04), with about 8.3 shots per game from outside the penalty area. The percentage of total shots taken from outside the box was also at a record low (31.7%).
Opta Analyst
+1

Historical data confirms a steady decline over time: in the early 2000s, teams averaged around 13.3 shots from outside the box per game, whereas recent seasons have been below 9–10 per game.
Premier League

📉 Trend in Goals From Outside the Box
Goals scored from outside the box now make up a smaller share of total goals compared with past years.

In the 2023–24 season, only about 12.4% of non-penalty goals came from outside the box, and this has generally been lower than in earlier decades (e.g., ~20% above in the mid-2000s).

While the absolute number of goals from long range can vary year-to-year, the relative share of goals from distance has declined compared with earlier eras.

📊 Why the Drop?
Several football analytics trends help explain this shift:

Expected goals (xG) analysis shows that shots closer to goal have a much higher chance of scoring than long-range attempts, leading teams to prioritize better shooting locations over speculative long shots.

Modern tactical approaches and build-up play also emphasize working the ball into the box rather than shooting quickly from far out.

[RedHand88]

It's the XG lot. Villa have scored a right few from outside the box recently and the XG crowd are on saying you cant shoot from there as there is a 0.02 chance of scoring.  That was the exact XG for the rogers goal v west ham. I'd bet good money that Rogers scores from that same position with Areola in nets more than 2 times out of 100.

Teams buy into this crap now though and are told to not take on "low percentage shots".

I read "How to win the Premier League" recently, the author is a fella who was one of the pioneers of this stuff.
It was sort of interesting at the start but it just got more and more convoluted. There is a star that is different from xG that takes into account the trajectory of the ball right after the ball is kicked, whereas xG just takes into account player positions. It is mental stuff.

[Blowitupref]

Are free kick goals a way done as well?

Amount of free kicks scored so far this season. 13 clubs hasn't scored one yet.

[Blowitupref]

The Aston Villa unbeaten run has come to a end with a bang against Arsenal tonight.

[laoislad]

Wolves win only their 3rd point of the season 👍

[Capt Pat]

Chelsea struggling after winning the club world cup. I didn't think it would do them any good playing an extra tournament in the summer when other clubs were resting and preparing for a new season.

[square_ball]

Wolves win only their 3rd point of the season 👍

Last night are the type of games they'd have been targeting points in.

[lurganblue]

The Aston Villa unbeaten run has come to a end with a bang against Arsenal tonight.

A deserved win for Arsenal. That's the Villa title charge over before the end of 2025. The media can now move onto a different narrative.

[tiempo]

Could the league be any worse?

For example, loads of examples

Pure dort